Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Dramatic Aerial Footage Shows What The Oroville Dam Looks Like Now

Earlier this month, we all heard the news that the Oroville Dam was damaged, and that thousands of residents living in its shadow would have to be evacuated. Fortunately the dam held, and the residents of Oroville were able to return to their homes. For the most part the story has since faded from the news. However, the damage remains.

Huge Shake Up At World's Largest Hedge Fund: Ray Dalio Steps Down As Co-CEO; Rubinstein Departs

“As I love markets, I’m excited about this change and expect to remain a professional investor at Bridgewater until I die or until those running Bridgewater don’t want me any more.” - Ray Dalio

The Biggest Peddler of Fake News ...

Hmmm, chicken.

Uber's CEO Wants You To Know He's "Ashamed" Of Leaked Video Footage; Says He Needs To "Grow Up"

"To say that I am ashamed is an extreme understatement.  It’s clear this video is a reflection of me and the criticism we’ve received is a stark reminder that I must fundamentally change as a leader and grow up."

Bunds Are Crashing

After reaching a record low yield of -95.8bps at the end of last week, 2Y german bond yields are exploding higher. The last 3 days - capped by today's spike - have seen a 13bps explosion - the most since Dec 2015 (and second biggest spike in four years).

Goldman's Top FX Strategist Robin Brooks Is Quitting

"Since I joined in May 2010, Goldman taught be to boil an issue down to its essence, write it up simply and … make a pretty picture that tells the story. That’s basically what I have done these last few years and I have loved every minute of it."

WTI/RBOB Tumble As US Crude Inventories Hit New Record High, Production Surges

After API's surprise gasoline build (sending RBOB prices lower), DOE reported a draw (though smaller than expected) but crude saw the 8th weekly build in a row - pushing US crude inventories to a new record high. Production continued to surge (above 9mm) to new cycle highs. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, " I think we can conservatively say the rebalancing isn't happening -- or isn't happening as the bulls expected."

The US Warms Up To Trump: 3 In 4 Americans Approve Of Trump Address

In a new poll from CNN/ORC, more than 75% of Americans reacted positively to Trump's Tuesday night "Presidential" address to Congress with 57% reacting "very positively."  That said, CNN was quick to point out that Trump's "very positive" rating fell well below Obama's 68% rating in his first address to a join session of Congress in 2009.

US Construction Spending Tumbles As Federal Building Crashes Most Since 2010

Headline US construction spending tumbled 1.0% MoM in January - the biggest drop since April 2016. The biggest driver was a collapse in Federal construction (tumbled 7.4% MoM) with public residential building crashing over 15% - the most since 2010.

"Manufacturing Is Far From Booming" - PMI Drops Despite Surge In ISM New Orders

With real spending declining and core durables goods orders and shipments fading, it's perhaps not a surprise that Markit PMI Manufacturing turned lower in Feb to 54.2 (missing expectations) with their chief economist warning "manufacturing is far from booming." Of course, just as with China, ISM provided an opposite perspective on US Manufacturing, beating expectations and rising to Aug 2014 highs.

China Warns It Must "Reallocate" Half A Million Unemployed Workers

China needs to reallocate half a million steel and coal workers in 2017 due to capacity cuts in these industries, China's labour minister said on Wednesday, as the world's second-largest economy tries to combat excess in the bloated industries.

Dow 21,000

Well that escalated quickly...

Wall Street Scrambles To Change The Trump Narrative Again

Until yesterday, the prevailing Wall Street consensus was that in the absence of specifics from President Trump on his economic and fiscal plans, the market would be disappointed, and proceed to slide. It did not, in fact quite the opposite.  As a result, the world's best paid strategist have once again revised the Trump-related narrative.

Bonds & Bullion Battered On Heavy Volume As Dow Nears 21,000

The moves in markets have acelerated notably in the last few minutes with a few billion dollars of notional gold being dumped, silver down, and Treasury yields exploding higher as The Dow pushes to open at 21,000...

How We Got Here In One Sentence

In every annual budget debate since the 1980s, one side figures out that the way to get what it wants – which is higher spending – is to frame the request in a particular, ingenious way: We have to borrow and spend way more now if we want to borrow and spend way less later.

Real Personal Spending Crashes Most Since 2009

While the key number analysts were looking for in today's Personal Spending data was the PCE Price Index, both headline and core, which rose by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, just shy of the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, the internals on US incomes and spending were just as notable.

"Trump Makes America Wait Again" - Why Not Everyone Was Happy With Trump's Address

"Financial bubbles, most notably the dotcom era, have proven that hopes and dreams can keep the market irrational longer than most of us can remain solvent. At some point though, reality catches up. And 40 days in to Trump’s administration, there’s little sign that Trump will deliver much of a boost to the U.S. economy on any imminent horizon."

30Y Yields Tops 3% As March Rate Hike Odds Spike Above 80%

An avalanche of hawkish Fed speakers appear to have got their way as March rate-hike odds have extended yesterday's move to 82% this morning. As stocks soar after a more presidential Trump, bond yields are also rising, catching up to stocks after diverging for two weeks.

German Inflation Jumps 2.2%, Surpassing ECB Target And Highest Since 2012

Following a series of "hot" inflation prints from Germany's states, moments ago German inflation rose more than expected, printing at 2.2% above the 2.1% consensus estimate, up from 1.9% in January and surpassing the ECB's target of a rate just under 2 percent for the first time since August 2012, the peak of the Eurozone debt crisis.

Trump Supporters Praise "Milder", "Presidential" Address: Five Speech Takeaways

While some were disappointed by the lack of specifics in Trump's speech, many others - and certainly Trump's group of core, faithful supporters - praised his "milder", more conciliatory tone, in a speech that was among his most "presidential" public addresses to date.

BofA Throws In The Cautionary Towel: Raises S&P Price Target From 2,300 To 2,450

Overnight, Bank of America's Savita Subramanyan became the first sellside strategist in recent weeks to throw in the cautionary towel, and raised the bank's year-end S&P price target from 2,300 to 2,450 to "reflect an increasing likelihood that we are entering the typical later stages of a bull market, during which fundamentals typically take a back seat to sentiment and technicals."

For The First Time, Federal Court Explicitly Establishes Filming Police As A Right

by Jack Burns, Activist Post:
There’s been an ongoing battle between police and the citizenry over who has the right to film in public. Disputes between police and the public have led to cameras being confiscated by police, and citizens being manhandled, beaten, and arrested. Now, it seems, the courts are weighing in, and not on the side of police.
The court’s opinion comes from a federal civil rights lawsuit filed by Phillip Turner vs. Driver, Grinald, and Dyess (2017). The plaintiffs are all officers from Ft. Worth, Texas. According to court documents, “Plaintiff-Appellant Phillip Turner was video recording a Fort Worth police station from a public sidewalk across the street when Defendants-Appellees Officers Grinalds and Dyess approached him and asked him for identification. Turner refused to identify himself, and the officers ultimately handcuffed him and placed him in the back of a patrol car.”
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Source of National Security Breach IDENTIFIED: The Leaker is David Laufman of DOJ

by Mike Cernovich, Danger & Play:
Obama holdover David Laufman is the source of the national security leaks, Cernovich Media can exclusively report. David Laufman, Chief of Counterintelligence, has all classified information regarding espionage pass by his desk.
The leaks have wrongly been blamed on the FBI, sources tell me, leading to a morale issue with the agency.
“The FBI prides itself as being seen as apolitical,” one source told me, “and are frustrated that they are being accused of playing politics.”
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State Department Employee Has Brakes Cut For the Second Time-What She Knows?

by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:
For the second time in 3 weeks, State Department employee, Monika Wesolowski has had the brakes on her car targeted. She was barely able to avoid disaster. I was originally contacted by Monika’s friend, Mary Tindall, who provided me with the details. Further, Monika and Mary have informed me that Monika’s communications are being tampered with as they have both informed me that the communications anomolies that are transpiring when they speak (eg the playing of Monika’s voicemail while she is talking on the phone), are increasing in frequency and severity.
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Six Immune-Building Foods and Herbs You Need to Consume to Stay Healthy

by Amy Goodrich, Natural News:
Usually, your immune system does an excellent job of protecting your body against disease-causing microbes. However, sometimes bacteria or viruses can slip past your body’s defense line and make you sick. If this happens, many people rely on prescription medication or antibiotics to get rid of the sick-making invaders.
Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin in 1928 gave rise to the era of antibiotics. While antibiotics have saved many lives in the past, today they don’t seem to be as efficient and revered as they once were. Now they come with a host of health-damaging side effects and add to the growing antibiotic-resistance thread.
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Oops, this Isn’t Supposed to Happen in a Rosy Credit Scenario

by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:
For the first time in the US since the Financial Crisis.

Let’s forget for a moment the Fed, its rate-increase flip-flopping, and what that might do in theory to the economy, and let’s look instead at what companies are actually doing, how they’re responding to the environment they find themselves in. Because now, something is happening that we haven’t seen since the trough of the Financial Crisis.
Credit growth no matter what has been the mantra. It could never be enough. If companies borrow more from banks, they’ll use that money to invest in productive activities or equipment and grow. That’s the theory. And it would move the economy forward.
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Why Tech Titans Hate Trump

from Henry Makow:
Palo Alto, California – I just came from a lunch on University Avenue in Palo Alto. The lunch was a large table in the back area of a well-reviewed restaurant. The participants were the top staffers of the Venture Capital companies of Silicon Valley. I got invited as the date of someone who was on the inside and nobody ever asked where I worked. I realized, soon after I arrived, that everyone was thought to be from the Stanford Silicon Valley Venture Capital offices up on Sandhill Road. I was an, unintentional, covert fly on the wall.
Now I know how the Trump Vs. California thing happened and why it is the most misnamed war in history.
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