Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About The Market

"I don’t generally call the entire market wrong...but I find it hard to say why stock markets are so un-volatile right now..."

Drudge: "Republicans Lied About Tax Cuts", Wants His Vote Back

"Republicans lied about wanting tax cuts.  Can we get our votes back?"

Oil Jumps After Saudis "Explain" Production Surge

Having sent crude oil pries tumbling overnight by admitting they cheated on OPEC production cuts, Saudi officials are desperately trying to unwind that faux pas by claiming the over-production was purely for domestic storage. The problem with this "explanation" is that Saudi deliveries to China soared in January...

High Yield Bond ETF Breaks Below Key Technical Level

We warned overnight of the canary in the coalmine that high-yield credit markets were becoming and today that stress is getting worse. For the first time since prior to the election, HYG (the high yield corporate bond ETF) has broken below its 200-day moving average...

WTF Chart Of The Day: Consumers 'Love' Trump's Economic Policies

While the CBO poured cold water on the RyanCare plan - and implicitly delayed the bill and thus tax reform - Bloomberg's Michael McDonough discovered that deep inside the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, there is reason for President Trump to be optimistic on passing his fiscal agenda.

Fillon Formally Charged With Misuse Of Pubic Funds, French Stocks Tumble

Having explored the various '-gates' that are hovering over French presidential candidate Francois Fillon this morning, it appears his vow to keep fighting may just be about to end. France's Canard Enchaine reports that Fillon has been formally charged today with misuse of public funds (over parliamentary jobs for his family).

Oil Plunge Accelerates After EIA Forecasts Spike In April Shale Output

$45 crude may now be inevitable - as per Kuwait's warning - because according to the latest monthly EIA productivity report, US shale is set to expand production by a whopping 109k barrels from March to April, rising from 4.853mmbpd to 4.962mmbpd, and offsetting OPEC's entire February production cut.

Oil-Trader Andurand Loses $130 Million In First Two Months... And Then Prices Plunged

Pierre Andurand lost 8.5% of his fund, or $130 million, in the first 2 months of this year, and then prices plunged. The loss makes his fund one of the industry’s worst-performers in 2017.  It also makes him the leading contender for "the next Andy Hall" prize, and close runner up in the "i am just a levered long bet on oil" category.

Valeant To Open At 8 Year Lows After Ackman Exits With $4 Billion Loss

Pershing Square's Bill Ackman once predicted Valeant would be the next Berkshire Hathaway, saying its shares could hit $330 took a roughly $4 billion loss on the embattled drugmaker as he reported his complete exit overnight.

Blizzard Bust: New York City Cancels Warning

The National Weather Service has cancelled its blizzard warning for New York City as the bulk of the storm has shifted West. Nonetheless, snow and sleet continued to fall across the Tri-State area although in less dramatic amounts.

"Wrong Way Gartman" setting himself up for when the same happens to him...

Gartman On Ackman: "We Feel Very Sad For Him To Have Fallen This Hard"

"This was a very public capitulation on his part and quite honestly we feel very sad for him to have fallen this hard and this publically for no one deserves that sort of ignominy."

US Producer Prices Spike At Fastest Rate In 5 Years

With tomorrow's rate hike baked in the cake, today's hotter than expected PPI print for February provides Yellen more cover (as economic growth forecasts slump). PPI Final Demand surged 2.2% YoY (more than expected) driven by a 4.0% YoY jump in final demand goods. This is the highest inflationary print since March 2012.

EU Bans Islamic Headscarf, Sparking Angry Protest From Soros-Funded Group

A ruling by the European Union's top court on Tuesday, which allows companies to bar staff from wearing Islamic headscarves and other visible religious symbols, has set off a storm of complaint from rights groups and religious leaders and particularly the Open Society Justice Initiative, a group backed by the philanthropist George Soros.

"The Powers-That-Be Have Looted Everything" - Greek Farmers Fight Riot Police With Shepherd Crooks

“We want to have them take back everything they have encumbered us with. To us, it seems like the powers that be have looted everything.

Oil Tumbles After Saudis Report Big Jump In Production; Kuwait Warns Of Drop To $45

Oil plunged after the latest OPEC monthly report was released which revealed something surprising: while secondary sources claimed that Saudi Arabia production declined by 68kbpd to 9.797mmbpd, according to Saudi's own numbers, the kingdom ramped up production in February by a whopping 263kpb, back over 10 million barrels per day.

Goldman Warns CBO Report Will Substantially Delay Obamacare Repeal

"While it is possible that ACA replacement legislation could reach the President’s desk in April, as Republican leaders have predicted, a delay until May or later continues to look more likely, particularly in light of today’s CBO estimate."

North Korea Threatens US With "Merciless Strikes" As US Carrier Arrives

"If they infringe on the DPRK's sovereignty and dignity even a bit, its army will launch merciless ultra-precision strikes from ground, air, sea and underwater," the North's state news agency KCNA adding that "on March 11 alone, many enemy carrier-based aircraft flew along a course near territorial air and waters of the DPRK to stage drills of dropping bombs."

Global Stocks Drop Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision; Dollar Rises As Sterling Tumbles

European stocks declined for first session in five ahead of Wednesday's Dutch elections and Fed rate hike announcement. Fed concerns also dragged down Asian shares and S&P futures, while the dollar rose. Crude oil has ended its six-day drop. The pound tumbled 0.8% to the lowest since mid-January in a delayed reaction after Theresa May won permission to trigger the country’s departure from the EU.

Is Turkey Lost To The West?

Not long ago, a democratizing Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO, appeared on track to join the European Union. That’s not likely now, or perhaps ever.

BOE Deputy Governor Resigns After Failing To Disclose Her Brother Works For Barclays

The Bank of England's new deputy governor of markets and banking, Charlotte Hogg, has resigned after less than five week in her post, after an MP report concluded she "fell short of the very high standards required" for the position as a result of failing to disclose that her brother works at Barclays, a bank which the BOE regulates.

Credit Crash Concerns Spark Biggest Investor Underweight Since 2008

For the first time since 2008, credit investors are net underweight high-yield bonds.

Why the Real Estate Market Is Imploding Again…

by Justin Spittler, Casey Research:
A new real estate crisis has begun.
You might find that hard to believe. After all, the government put out all sorts of laws and regulations after the last housing crisis. These measures were supposed to protect us from a repeat of the 2008–2009 financial crisis.
Plus, U.S. housing prices are rising, not falling.
But I’m not talking about the housing market. I’m talking about retail real estate.
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Countdown To Crisis

by David Stockman, DailyReckoning:
During the run-up to the election, the deep state bureaucrats at the Treasury built up what I described Friday as Hillary’s debt ceiling “war chest,” sending the cash balance to $425 billion shortly before election day.
By contrast, shortly after the election the Treasury stopped selling new debt, and began to actually pay down maturing bills and notes. The Treasury has burned over $338 billion of cash since then. That depleted Hillary’s war chest since she wouldn’t be around to benefit from it.
Or rather, it pumped a veritable tsunami of cash into the canyons of Wall Street.
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North Korea Threatens America. They’re Coming, They’re Going to Blow Us Up

by Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research:
“And you know, we have this mad guy [Kim Jong-un], I guess he’s mad, either he’s mad or he’s a genius, one or the other, but he’s actually more unstable, even than his father, …” (Donald Trump, August 2016 during election campaign)
What was indelible about it [the Korean War of 1950-53] was the extraordinary destructiveness of the United States’ air campaigns against North Korea, from the widespread and continuous use of firebombing (mainly with napalm), to threats to use nuclear and chemical weapons, and the destruction of huge North Korean dams in the final stages of the war. …. (Bruce Cumings)
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Banning Gmail in State Clinics, Creating Their Own Platforms: Russia’s Response to Wikileaks Vault 7 Revelations

from Rogue Money:
Of course, this does not mean that the Russia Analyst could ever do the impossible and prove a negative: that Russian hackers of the FSB or GRU didn’t get into the DNC’s servers, after 99.9% pillaging every U.S. government secret found on Hillary Clinton’s home bathroom server. Indeed if the Russian security services hadn’t data-mined the Clintons emails and servers for all they were worth, the intelligence officer in chief of Russia Vladimir Putin would be asking them behind closed doors if they were doing their jobs. But post-Vault 7 revelations about Russian and Chinese hacker signatures being stockpiled by Langley, bolster the argument that those cutsie Cyrillic metadata or signatures of Soviet secret policeman Feliks Dzerzhinsky the (CIA?) hackers allegedly left behind never jibed with the professionalism seen by Russian professionals state or non-state sponsored in other jobs. In other words, the hacks very likely if they did occur were a false flag to paper over an already detected insider dump from the DNC.
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CZ 85B, by Pat Cascio

by Pat Cascio, Survival Blog:
Continuing on with testing all-metal firearms, as requested by many of our readers, here’s one of my favorite double-stack 9mm handguns. The CZ-85B is simply an upgraded model of the original CZ-75. For many years, the CZ-75 was hard to come by in the USA, because it was produced in the Czech Republic when it was behind the “Iron Curtain”. The few CZ-75 handguns that were in the USA were very hard to come by and expensive, very expensive!
Because of the scarcity of the original CZ-75, a number of near-clones of this gun appeared. One of the most recognized, coming from Italy, was imported by several different companies into the U.S.
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Shots Fired at Ferguson Liquor Market after Fake News CNN Broadcasts Highly Edited Michael Brown CCTV Footage

by Tim Brown, Freedom OutPost:
CNN, the real Fake News network, despite the libelous claims of a no name Harvard fake professor who failed to name them as fake news while declaring a plethora of conservative websites as “fake news,” has been promoting a documentary titled “Stranger Fruit,” a lop-sided video that uses heavily edited video from Michael Brown’s visit to the Ferguson Liquor Market the night before he was shot and killed. Following the promotion of the video, shots were fired at the market, leading many to believe that CNN is twisting the story, as they often have, in order to cite insurrection.
First, consider the video aired on CNN.
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Why Did Silver Fall? – Keith Weiner

by Keith Weiner, Sprott Money:
The question on the lips of everyone who plans to exchange his metal for dollars—widely thought to be money—is why did silver go down? The price of silver in dollar terms dropped from about 18 bucks to about 17, or about 5 percent.
The facile answer is manipulation. With no need of evidence—indeed with no evidence—one can assert this and not be questioned in the gold and silver communities. We have recently come across a term normally used to describe Leftists and Social Justice Warriors, “ virtue signaling”. One piously declares that one supports the cause, one speaks truth to power, one sticks it to The Man, well you get the idea. The concept of virtue signaling seems equally appropriate to those who sing the chorus on every price drop, “manipulation.”
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The American Media Hide From The Truth — Paul Craig Roberts

by Paul Craig Roberts, Paul Craig Roberts:
The CIA created and accumulated from other sources a huge array of malware and cyber attack capability capable of stealing information from any individual, any government, any corporation, any intelligence agency and either leaving no trace or leaving a “fingerprint” of an innocent party. The CIA, being arrogant and incompetent, lost control over its monster which escaped and now is in the hands of we know not who. Floating around the Internet, it was sent to WikiLeaks. Listen to Julian Assange’s explanation of the capability of the CIA’s spyware, which includes end runs around encryption. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aha8bicPN88
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Brexit Drains Swamp in London, Creatures Head to Luxembourg

by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:
Tax planning for a post-Brexit world.
In its report on the “world’s worst corporate tax havens” last December, Oxfam rated Luxembourg in 7th place, behind Bermuda, Cayman Islands, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore, and Ireland.
But the “City of London,” a largely autonomous square mile within London where the threads of global finance meet, was given a special mention: The number one “unexpected absence” from the list of the top 15 worst tax heavens. Oxfam’s report put it this way:
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Bank Loans Take A Dive: It’s The Economy, Stupid

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
I am compelled to correct a report posted on Zerohedge about the cliff-dive going on in commercial, industrial and consumer loans. The report in ZH suggested the plunge is connected to two possibilities: 1) this one from a Wall Street sleazebag from Barclays: “it is possible that companies have shifted from the loan to the bond market, and are selling more bonds to lock in cheap financing before rates rise, while not encumbering assets with issuing unsecured debt;” and 2) political uncertainty connected to Trump.
The first possibility could have some small amount of legitimacy except that if you parse through all the data available at the Fed, you’ll see that bank credit has plunged across the entire spectrum of U.S. business (I used size of loan as the proxy). Smaller businesses do not have access to public credit markets and thus the first explanation is the typical apology for a negative economic report that we would expect from a Wall Street con-artist. The second possibility is part of the anti-Trump narrative found in the fake news reports coming from the ignorant.
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You’re Being Played: Trump Is The Pied Piper

by Richard Sauder, Event Horizon Chronicle:
Permit me to set the scene. This has all been set up by the Deep State, over a period of many years, in fact.
To begin with, Donald Trump is not an outsider, he’s an insider, and has been for a long time. He’s a New York City multi-billionaire with numerous business and personal contacts in industry, high finance and government at all levels. That has been true for decades, even before he ran for political office.
The Trump brand was conspicuously pre-positioned before the public’s eyes for decades. It’s called product placement and in this case the product being sold is Trump. It’s a familiar advertising technique. Very few people have their own network TV program.
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