Don’t Let Machines Control Your Emotions
by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
Gold will trade at $3500 and beyond. The US dollar will test USDX .7200 before heading lower.
Whatever is required, be it time or money, the Euro nations will get. The Fed will, via swaps, backstop the euro. QE will go to infinity both here and there.
The Chinese have publicly said when the gold market takes a hit they will be buying.
Calm down. Emotions are being run by machines, HFT and nerds who hide behind their computer. They will not win.
All hell is going to break lose, and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation...
fiscal cliff, Bush tax cuts
Read More @ JS Mineset
by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
Gold will trade at $3500 and beyond. The US dollar will test USDX .7200 before heading lower.Whatever is required, be it time or money, the Euro nations will get. The Fed will, via swaps, backstop the euro. QE will go to infinity both here and there.
The Chinese have publicly said when the gold market takes a hit they will be buying.
Calm down. Emotions are being run by machines, HFT and nerds who hide behind their computer. They will not win.
All hell is going to break lose, and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation...
fiscal cliff, Bush tax cuts
Read More @ JS Mineset
150 Seconds Of "You Can't Handle The European Truth" From Kyle Bass
"A popular revolt will happen" is how Kyle Bass sums up the endgame from kicking the can in Europe. Dismissing the headline-making 'But, Blackrock is buying European bonds', Bass reminds Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle that very few ever get the crises correct and that the herd will keep buying things until it blows apart. With massively over-leveraged banks and a Greek dependency, Bass notes that investing in Europe now is like picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer and expects Germany will eventualy leave the Euro (within 3-4 years) as the 'joint-and-several' liabilities will never happen. 150 well-spent seconds to summarise just what is going in Europe, as he concludes with Milton Friedman's quote on Europe: "when they hit a bump in the road, it will tear them apart at the core."
2 Dead, 2 Missing As Another Oil Platform Burning In Gulf Of Mexico
Mere hours after BP settles, the US Coast Guard confirms there is an offshore (shallow water) platform burning in the Gulf of Mexico in the area of West Delta Block 32 (near West Cote Blanche Bay). Local TV says that two people are dead and two people are missing after an explosion at the platform. More to come...- UPDATE:Gulf rig fire was result of rig explosion at oil/gas platform "West Delta 32"owned by Black Elk Oil, ac. to Coast Guard
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I'm PayPal Verified Anonymous Hacks Greek Finance Ministry, Finds "123456" Is Password For 37% Of All User Accounts
While
we have yet to go through the thousands of files that hacker
collective Anonymous has just released as a result of its hack of the
Greek Finance Ministry, an exploit it described as follows: "We gained
full access to the Greek Ministry of Finance. Those funky IBM servers
don't look so safe now, do they... We have new guns in our arsenal. A
sweet 0day SAP exploit is in our hands and oh boy we're gonna sploit the
hell out of it. Respectz to izl the dog for that perl candy," what we
find even more amusing, if not surprising, is that of the 136 username
accounts Anonymous hacked, the password of precisely 50 of them, or
some 37% of all workers, is .... 123456 (full list here).BTFD...(buy the F--king dips)...Keep Stacking...
Gold & Silver Plunge Deja Deja Deja Vu
Whether
it is leveraged AAPL traders forced to sell winning collateral to meet
margin calls, correlation-driven algos running stops down and up, or
simply the whims of worried custodians managing risk for their clients'
holdings; one thing is sure - someone (or more than one) has
been a size seller of precious metals in the US-day-session-open to
Europe-close period for four days in a row now...Every Time You See This...BTFD...
by SGT,
Let’s take moment to admire the free and fair trade of the precious metals, unencumbered by paper manipulation! This is what a free market is all about. I’m so glad we live in a country that respects the rule of law. America is home to the shining jewel of financial markets which are the envy of the world. Stand proud Americans! It’s an honor to know that we are home to Wall Street and some of the largest banking houses on planet earth. And we are so fortunate to have the SEC and the CFTC to help safeguard these wonderful markets, always standing vigilant and ensuring that if ever there is any malfeasance in the market, it will swiftly be sought out and corrected, and those responsible, brought to justice. May God continue to bless the greatest country in the world. These United States of America.
Meanwhile In Argentina...
Dear Buenos Aires: we have three words of advice - "hide yo' catamarans" (before Paul Singer comes and collects them all once you default again in what the market now deems is inevitable to occur in the next few weeks). 5Y CDS on Argentina just reverse-Baumgartnered to over 3000bps (49/53% upfront) and short-dated CDS imply a 60% probability of default (assuming a 25% recovery).
Here Is Why The ECB Should Be Freaking Out
Given the deterioration left, right, and center in Europe's core and peripheral economies, some question the sustained 'strength' of EURUSD.
An under-the-table peg around 1.27 is the conspiracy chatter but we
fall back to a tried-and-true recipe for comprehending what the market
is thinking - the central banks are in charge and the EURUSD exchange rate merely reflects (as a main trend) the relationship between those two balance sheets
(as monetary policy escalates downwards and they battle each other to
'defend' their own currencies' demise). To wit, given the current ratio
of the Fed and ECB balance sheets, we would expect EURUSD to be
trading around 1.21. The current EURUSD rate implies a balance-sheet
ratio of 1.08x - which therefore means the market expects the ECB to expand its balance sheet by EUR740bn; this just happens to be the sum-total of Spanish sovereign debt (according to Bloomberg - while our estimate is considerably higher). So it seems, the market knows that once the ECB starts, it will not be able to stop
and will end up taking the entire Spanish debt load onto its books.
Spain can perhaps deal with its existing debt in this way - but this
appears to us merely incremental sustainability - and like
in the US where the Fed is monetizing all long-dated Gross issuance,
so the ECB will have no choice but to do the same with Spain in 2013
and 2014 - Treaty or no Treaty!!.Quote of the Day
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 10 minutes ago
"Society in every state is a blessing, but government, even in its best
state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one."
--Thomas Paine
Rancher/Farmers - Further Casualities in the War Being Waged by the Left
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 11 minutes ago
Take a good, hard look at the following article and note particularly way
down in the 10th paragraph:
Many Democrats argue the tax promotes equality among classes,
Read more:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/ranchers-farmers-brace-for-death-tax-impact/#ixzz2CP5PO11S
If you will recall that article I wrote last week after the election, I
mentioned that the left in this country takes as its motto the rallying cry
of the French Revolution, "Liberty, EQUALITY, Fraternity".
They will not rest until they have reduced every citizen in this nation to
the same level of misery and ... more »
Dealing With Complexity In A Non-linear World
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
I realize that understanding can by crushed by weight of complexity, but I
know few processes adequately defined by linear reasoning (insert tab A
into slot A). Investors and traders even those that follow Jim's approach
as a creator of production and true wealth are challenged daily by the
complexities of a non-linear world. Insights.com was created to show the
door of possibilities in...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
Don`t Fight Change
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"People who fight change are fighting inevitability itself." - *in The
Ultimate Road Trip*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
Bullish On Southeast Asia
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago
In this "Squawk Box" excerpt, Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,
says there is one area of the world that he is optimistic about.
*
**Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Anyone building a short list of the most over-hyped economic buzz words of
2012, might want to consider adding: Fiscal Cliff Balanced Approach Perfect
Storm George Clooney's agent has to smelling a sequel with so many perfect
storms on the horizon. Headline: Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013
An estimated 7 million Americans will reach the age of 65 by the start of...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]The Hostess Liquidation: A Curious Cast Of Characters As The Twinkie Tumbles
Perhaps
one of the most interesting aspects of the just announced Hostess
liquidation, one that will be largely debated and discussed in the
media, or maybe not at all, is the curious cast of characters and the
peculiar history of this particular bankruptcy. Some may not be aware
that the company's Chapter 11 (or colloquially known as 22) bankruptcy
filing this January, which today became a Chapter 7 liquidation, was
the second one in the company's recent history, with Hostess,
previously Interstate Bakeries, emerging from its previous protracted
multi-year bankruptcy in 2009. What is curious is that its emergence
had all the drama of a anti-Mitt Romney PAC funded thriller, with a PE
firm, in this case Ripplewood holdings, injecting $130 million in order
to obtain equity control of Hostess as it was emerging last time.
There were also more hedge funds, investment banks, strategic buyers,
politicians involved in this particular story than one can shake a deep
fried numismatic value Twinkie at. More importantly, however, as
America has been habituated following the last season of the reality TV
show known as the presidential election, if Private Equity then "bad." Only
this time there is a twist: because it wasn't really PE that was the
pure evil in the Obama long-term campaign, it was associating PE with
Republicans, and thus: with jobs outsourcing. And here comes the Hostess
twist: because Tim Collins of Ripplewood, was a prominent Democrat, a
position which allowed him to get involved in the first bankruptcy
process in the first place, due to his proximity with the Teamsters'
long-term heartthrob Dick Gephardt (whose consulting group just happens
to also be an equity owner of Hostess). In other words, the traditional
republican-cum-PE scapegoating strategy here will be a tough
one to pull off since the narrative collapses when considering that it
was a Democrat who rescued the firm, only to see it implode in a
trainwreck that has resulted in the liquidation of a legendary brand,
and 18,500 layoffs.Hamas Escalates - Air Raid Sirens Over Jerusalem
Markets have come to their senses a little and are selling off as news breaks of a plethora of concerning headlines from Israel:- *AIR RAID SIRENS HEARD OVER JERUSALEM
- *HAMAS CLAIMS FIRED ROCKET TOWARD JERUSALEM AREA, CHANNEL 2 SAYS
- *HAMAS CLAIMS IT HIT ISRAELI JET OVER GAZA STRIP
- *HAMAS SAYS FIRED AT ISRAELI PARLIAMENT IN JERUSALEM
- *FLASH: EXPLOSION HEARD IN JERUSALEM AREA: LOCAL MEDIA
There Is No Dollar Sign On Your Piece Of Mind
In
a word, this weekend, next week, we are facing what the boys in the
South call “chicken fried.” This is the moment when the ingredients
lounging in your kitchen get tossed in the frying pan and are cooked up
with grease (perhaps Greece) splattering everywhere and some concoction
that is decidedly unhealthy for you is tossed upon your plate. A
week ago the menu consisted of the Capitol Grill of America’s Fiscal
Cliff, the red wine (perhaps whine) of Spain and the seemingly never
ending fried in olive oil mess provided by both Athens and Brussels.
That would have been enough “Opa” for anyone as plates get smashed and
people whirl around on some table like dervishes but now we have a new
option on the menu, a special provided by the Great Chef in the sky. We get to throw in the latkes of Israel and the hummus provided by Hamas. Any
of these menu selections could provide severe heartburn all by
themselves but eaten together; a hospital stay may be required or a plot
at the cemetery.Tumbling October Industrial Production And Capacity Utilization Blamed Solely On Hurricane Sandy
Because not one Wall
Street analyst could have possibly factored in the impact of Sandy
into their expectations of the month's Industrial Production, which in October declined by -0.4% to 96.6 from 97.0
in the Fed's index, well below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise,
and down from last month's 0.4% increase, it is only logical to blame it all on Sandy. Sure
enough, this is what the Fed just did: "Hurricane Sandy, which held
down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is
estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1
percentage point." So let's get this straight: Sandy - which hit on October 29, or with about 94% of the month of October done and impacted New York and New Jersey, not the entire US, is responsible for 250% of the entire October 0.4% drop? Can
we please get back to the "It's all Bush's fault" excuses already. At
least those were idiotic and funny. Blaming everything on Sandy is just
the former. And yes, capacity utilization for the entire USA which
came at 77.8%, the lowest since November 2011, and well below
expectations of 78.3%, was obviously crushed by a tropical storm that
impacted New York and New Jersey for 3 days in the month. Brilliant.Pre-Open Equity Ramp As Algos Track War-Ridden Oil Higher
Each
day we wake and look to the markets for guidance. Typically that
guidance means - which easily-leveragable asset class can be pulled (or
pushed) to move the US equity markets (in their algo-correlated manner)
in which ever direction we need (up as much as possible obviously
since the status quo requires it). Sometimes, it's EURUSD, other times
it's PMs; today, it is oil's turn! There has been no real escalation in
tensions in Israel in the last hour, no news of significance; and yet WTI
has popped 1.5% and in an almost perfectly correlated manner, S&P
futures have chugged along to the highs of the day to run those stops
before the US day-session open. Efficient Markets... Pin Risk... OPEX...Risk Ramp On Boehner Banality
Great
timing. The ubiquitous post-European close trend-reversal was extended
by some 'nothing' comments from Boehner that every media outlet is
inferring means everything's fixed and compromise is close. Boehner says talks with Obama were constructive. Outlined a framework with Obama; Will accept revenue if spending cuts. It's
not - what did we expect him to say?AAPL jumped up to VWAP and
S&P 500 futures coincidentally reached overnight highs/stops. Now
let's see if anyone really believes...
Hostess
Brands, the company better known as the maker of Butternut, Ding
Dongs, Dolly Madison, Drake's, Home Pride, Ho Hos, Hostess, Merita,
Nature's Pride, and of course Wonder Bread and Twinkies, and which
previously survived one multi-year Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, when
it operated as Interstate Bakeries, has just made a splash at the NY
Southern Bankruptcy court, for the last time, with a liquidation filing.
The reason: insurmountable (and unfundable) difference in the firm's
collective bargaining agreements and pension obligations, which resulted
in a crippling strike that basically shut down the company. In other
words, Twinkies may well survive the nuclear apocalypse, but there was
one weakest link: the company making them, was unable to survive
empowered labor unions who thought they had all the negotiating
leverage... until they led their bankrupt employer right off
liquidation cliff. Will attention now turn to that another broke
government entity, the 
We
all stand 'fingers-over-eyes and thumbs-in-ears' awestruck at the
immense wreckage that the fiscal cliff titan will wreak upon the
country. However, deep inside our socially responsible minds, all we can
really think about is - what about my needs? 
The physical silver scramble continues, as a MASSIVE
In his farewell address to Congress yesterday, Ron Paul blasted the dangers of what he called 'Economic Ignorance'.
He's dead right. Around the world, economic ignorance abounds. And
perhaps nowhere is this more obvious today than in the senseless
prattling over the US 'Fiscal Cliff'. US government spending falls into
three categories: Discretionary, Mandatory, and Interest on Debt. The
only thing Congress has a say over is Discretionary Spending. But here's
the problem - the US fiscal situation is so untenable that the
government fails to collect enough tax revenue to cover mandatory
spending and debt interest alone. This means that they could
cut the ENTIRE discretionary budget and still be in the hole by $251
billion. This is why the Fiscal Cliff is irrelevant. Increasing taxes
won't increase their total tax revenue. Politicians have tried this for
decades. It doesn't work. Bottom line-- the Fiscal Cliff doesn't matter. The US passed the point of no return a long time ago. 
We
hear a lot about billionaires, millionaires, and 250,000-aires but
just where are all these tax-dodging blood-suckers skulking and just how many trips to Space on Virgin Galactic can the Top 25 Wealthiest people take per day?... Everything you wanted to know about the uber-wealthy is one simple mega-infographic.
As
has been widely reported previously, while the NY Fed's deep
underground gold vault remained dry during the Sandy flooding in
downtown NY, one institution which got badly hurt was the DTCC, aka Cede
& Co (profiled here in July of 2009 in " 
Equity indices end the day marginally red as the machines tried every trick in the book to get markets up...(levering FX carry, spiking PMs, running HYG, spiking vol)
to enable more selling - especially at the close when we saw notable
size blocks being traded into that ramp to try and get green. VWAP was the anchor all day for S&P 500 futures (and since the synthetics are where the liquidity is - everything else followed) as stocks trend-reversed as normal on the EU close.
In general volatility and high-yield credit had a significantly weak
day but into the close managed to rise a little as risk-assets broadly
recoupled with equity markets to close. Despite a lot of noise and chop
stocks lost a little, Treasuries gained a little (-2bps on the week!), Silver scrambled back from its flash crash (but gold didn't do as well), and the USD ended today up a remarkably unchanged 0.04% (with EUR up 0.5% and JPY down 2.2% on the week). VIX ended back above 18% as AAPL just keeps falling with its 300DMA now in play.
In the current Bernanke-Obama-Keynes toxic triangle (defined 
On the near 100% probability that Germany will not voluntarily give
money to Spain, nor will Germany voluntarily modify its trade policies,
the choices facing Spain are quite bleak.
Israel attacked and killed the top Hamas leader yesterday. The attacks
back and forth commenced AFTER our elections; are you surprised? The
“leadership scandal” within our military has only gone public, again,
AFTER the elections. If you were watching closely for the last several
months you would know that there has been a handful of other Generals
and Admirals that have been replaced. There are several theories on
this. My theory is that these were longtime and “conservative” leaders
that were swept out of power in a clean sweep. Is this a surprise? I
could also ask the same question about the recent deluge of negative
economic reports and the suddenly declining stock market but I’ll let
you think this through.
While the attention of most Americans was focused on whatever trivia
dished out from the mainstream media such as the current hot celebrity
or the David Petraeus incident, it appears that the Bilderberg Group has
arranged what some have described as an impromptu meeting in Rome,
Italy. 
When a reader (and fellow silver-mining investor) recently expressed
his frustrations on our Forum regarding the absurd valuations which most
of these miners currently exhibit, I decided it was once again time to
try to shed some light (and sanity?) on this subject.
Call it wishful thinking, but a small part of me thinks that the real reason why 
Citizens from all 50 U.S. states have now filed petitions with the White House asking for “peaceful secession” from the union. According to 
A very important article came out from the Wall Street Journal
yesterday titled “FHA Nears Need for Taxpayer Funds,” and it outlines
the serious financial problems facing the Federal Housing
Administration. For those that are unaware or need a refresher, the FHA
has been the key element to the phony “housing recovery” the government
has been trying to create. In the wake of the collapse of 2008, Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac blew up and what was left to pick up the pieces was
the FHA. No private player would issue loans with down payments of 3%,
but this was no problem for the FHA!
“If I had a world of my own,” declared Alice, Lewis Carroll’s red
pill-popping protagonist while wandering around her author’s Wonderland,
“everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because
everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it
wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?”![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
