Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Eight Scariest Charts For Equity Bulls

It would appear Mark Twain's infamous quote that "history does not repeat, but it does rhyme" has never been so apt. The following eight charts suggest the rhythm is getting louder and louder. How is it possible? It's nonsense? Well at the heart of the markets, it is still us humans and our endearing greed, fear, and heuristic biases that drive the flows... trade accordingly. “Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.” — AndrĂ© Gide

Spot The Odd Market Out Since The Election

from Zero Hedge:
UPDATE: GRPN discounted by 13% after-hours on sales-staff and outlook cut
Market watchers are stunned, stunned we tell you, that we didn’t bounce today after yesterday’s 1-year record plunge in stocks. Whether AAPL led the market or the market led AAPL is irrelevant, there is one clear fact, everyone and their pet rabbit Clive is looking to reduce exposure to that anchor-like alpha-destroyer. Gold once again outperformed every other asset class today as it has seemingly reaffirmed since the election that “buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle.” S&P 500 futures plunged into the close to end on their lows (-60 points from yesterday’s highs); AAPL closed at its lows (-3.7% on the day – through its 55-week average); financials dropped further; Treasury yields plunged (30Y -16bps on the week); while the USD generally tracked sideways to higher; high-yield credit closed at its lowest price in over two months (don’t tell Tom Lee). VIX compressed modestly (and steepened) as we suspect election hedges are lifted (and also AAPL overlays discarded).
Read More @ Zero

Armed To The Teeth: Essential Survival Contingency

by Michael S.,
There are many varying opinions on what makes a prepper prepared. After listening to my contemporaries for some time, and giving their opinions due credence, I always find myself arriving at the same conclusion. I know that food, water and shelter are staples for not only prepping, but also normal everyday life. I understand the importance of self-reliance and sustainability. Topics like alternative energy sources, shelves stocked with supplies, ponds teaming with fish, underground hideouts, rainwater collection, and so on all make clear sense to me. I’ve found that the term SHTF seems to be frequently taken out of context and often misused. I must draw a line in the sand at the notion I’ve found of some people rationalizing how a couple thousand rounds of .22LR in a backpack can make a Ruger 10/22 a serviceable “combat” weapon. While storable food and water are both mission critical, it is apparent to me that arming yourself with the proper weapons, training, and equipment is the most essential part of prepping. I am certainly not regarded as a subject matter expert, or an authority in prepping, but I have been part of an invasion force. I am a combat veteran, a sharpshooter and machine gun expert. I have priceless real world experience and training that many of you will never attain. It seems that time is running out, that is why I have chosen to share my own personal insights.
Read More @

The Politicians We Have Chosen Reflect Who We Are As A Nation

from The Economic Collapse Blog:
The American people have spoken. It is estimated that approximately 6 billion dollars was spent on political campaigns in 2012, and we ended up exactly in the same place that we were before. Barack Obama is still in the White House, the Democrats still have solid control of the U.S. Senate and the Republicans still have solid control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Clearly, the American people want more of the same, and that is really bad news. The path that we have been on will only lead to unprecedented disaster, and now it is abundantly clear that there is not going to be any solutions to our problems on the national level. Not that things would be that much different if we reversed things and gave Republicans control of the White House and the Senate and we gave Democrats control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Over the past several decades, nothing has really seemed to get any better no matter what faces we have sent to Washington. But this time there is really a feeling of “finality” to things. The American people have made their choices, and those choices are going to have consequences. There is no turning back now. The politicians that we have chosen reflect who we are as a nation. It is not just our leaders that have turned their backs on the U.S. Constitution and on the principles that this country was founded upon – the truth is that the majority of the American people have rejected them. We have willingly chosen our destiny, and there are no more excuses.

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified

First Ohio; Next 'The Moon'?

While markets are digesting the probabilities of a dramatic rise in taxes and cut in spending as we approach the fiscal cliff, it appears that behind-the-scenes there has been a secret plan that we can only imagine is designed to rocket-boost us over the cliff - new manned missions to the moon. As reports, NASA is serious about sending astronauts back to the moon's neighborhood and will likely unveil its ambitious plans soon now that President Barack Obama has been re-elected, experts say. They go on to comment that "The space agency has apparently been thinking about setting up a manned outpost beyond the moon's far side, both to establish a human presence in deep space and to build momentum toward a planned visit to an asteroid in 2025. The new plans have probably already been cleared with the Obama Administration but have been kept under wraps in case Republican candidate Mitt Romney won Tuesday night's (Nov. 6) presidential election." While the claims are that this will not increase the budget, we suspect out-of-this-world manned outposts cost a little more than the $17.7bn budgeted for NASA in 2013... someone is clearly eating space-cakes. Ironic really given our earlier post...

Following Japanese Models?

Perhaps those sage English philosophers 'The Vapors' were on to something 32 years ago when they asked if we were "Turning Japanese" for it seems the following charts from Nomura certainly suggest the US bond market is heading in that direction. From demographics to monetary policy; from investor allocations to flows; and from bond bubbles and volatility to long-term interest-rate paths, it seems we share a lot more than a love for sushi and pachinko with our neigbours across the ocean as we seem to be chasing after many Japanese models (of asset allocation and macro-economics).

Dexia needs a new bailout/gold and silver have second day of an outside day reversal/Greek unemployment rises again/B. and England stops QE

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up again to the tune of $12.20 or 1725.40. Silver also rose by 58 cents closing the comex session at $32.23.  Gold and silver trading has been unusual during the past two sessions as the banker raids have been repelled with such force and then on both days, our two precious metals closed at their highs. This is great for us and a bad omen for our

Ron Paul, Thank You for your service...You Will be Missed... 
Dr. Paul  Is The ONLY Politician in DC that could pass a LIE Detector Test...

Ron Paul: "Pure Democracy Is Dangerous"... When It's Purchased

From an outright libertarian, the headline seems contrary; but Ron Paul's affirmation that "pure democracy is dangerous" critically confirms what Romney accidentally admitted: that enabling the majority to dictate the minority is a problem when the majority are receiving a [government] check. Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu looks a little shocked when the thoughtful Paul confirms bluntly that the reelection of Obama is driven simply by 'the people' being on the 'receiving end' of government benefits and that the US is "so far gone; we're over the cliff already." From the lack of credibility in Washington to GOP's 'acceptance' of higher taxes and why he quit Congress, Ron Paul succinctly reminds many of the true state of the union in which we live... "As long as you think we have to please the world and run this welfare state, all we will argue about is who will get the loot."

A Fond Farewell to a Patriot

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 7 hours ago
Congressman Ron Paul retires from Congress this year choosing not to run for re-election. He will be stepping down from Congress after serving faithfully for many long years. He was one of the few leaders who dared to speak the truth and while you may or may not have agreed with him, no one can deny that he loves the precious Constitution and has tried to be faithful to that founding document in spite of pressure from his own political party. Read these words of his exercpted from his TV interview on Bloomberg today. One final word - Governor Romney opposed the bailout of GM and wr... more » 

Another Planet

The losers in elections often take the loss badly. Just as some Gore supporters in 2000 shouted about moving to Canada, some Romney supporters have taken the loss particularly badly too. All the Republican rage made me think about the origins of America. For those who want to strike out into the unknown in the pursuit of self-governance, such options don’t exist anymore. There is no great sparsely inhabited continent spread out (except perhaps Antarctica which is already claimed-for). Where is the next America? Where is the next land that people seeking self-governance can emigrate to? The hunger for self-governance led to the birth of America. It seems highly likely, in the very long run, that the hunger for self-governance will be the force that leads not only to local space colonisation. Powerful central government drives nonconformists to find ways to escape it. If the only road to self-governance left is up into space, then that is the road that will be taken.

A Snapshot In Charts: You Are Here

While there was clarity in the recent election results -  there will not be any impending vote recounts that would leave control of the country hanging in the balance - Tuesday night’s results did nothing to change the basic dysfunctional dynamic between the two political parties. Now the fiscal cliff will have to be addressed in the coming lame duck session, and it won’t be easy to find a solution... Victory guarantees the president nothing more than the headache of building consensus in a gridlocked capital on behalf of a polarized public, that has become tired of struggling with heightened uncertainty. In Abe Gulkowitz's latest 'The Punchline' note below, reiterates his concerns regarding the growing gulf between the behavior of investors enamored with monetary largess and the realities on the ground of globally weak economies... Add the risk of more corporate-earnings disappointments and we have a situation that needs remedying. His 17-page one-stop-shop of unvarnish everything everywhere truthiness is a must-read.

What To Do When You've Hit Your Breaking Point...

At some point or another, anyone who is even remotely paying attention to reality will likely reach two critical moments of awakening in their lives. The first is what I call the “Aha! moment”. The ‘Aha! moment’ is usually brought about by something you learn or read… When you talk to your friends and family, most of them don’t want to hear about your ideas. They think you’re nuts. They haven’t had their ‘Aha! moment’ yet. Eventually, you learn to keep it all inside. But then, at some point down the road, the second critical moment occurs– the Breaking Point.

It's Not So Rosie: What Keeps A Gloomy Realist Up At Night

Yesterday, we were offered 'hopes and prayers' by Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg. However, as he warned then, there are some things to be worried about. From the wide gaps in voting patterns across socio-economic lines and the expectations that populist policies will be the hallmark of Obama's second term to the mixed-to-negative data across employment data, consumer spending indications, housing, and Europe; it appears the market is starting to price in some positive probability of a fiscal cliff and these macro data do nothing to subsidize that reality. While the President does not face the Great Recession of four years ago, he does confront the "Not So Great Recovery" nonetheless. 

STRATFOR Update on the Eurozone Crisis

[Ed. Note: The ECB will buy the troubled bonds of debt-riddled countries on the brink, in the attempt to "calm markets"? Gimmee a break. Anyone with a pulse knows, it's game over for the EU. The questions is, when?]
from STRATFORvideo :

“The tools that worked in 2012, may not work in 2013.”

Republicans Rage as the Great Burning Arrives

by John Browne, The Daily Bell:
Republicans descend into civil war as Tea Party movement vows to drive party further to the right … The Republican Party was last night descending into a civil war over control of its political future, as recriminations raged about its failure to oust Barack Obama and take control of the US Senate. Some conservatives warned colleagues that they risked annihilation by refusing to change and appeal to the women, younger and ethnically-diverse voters who had stood by Barack Obama since 2008. Yet many supporters of the Tea Party movement – whose agenda was rebuked across the US – claimed Mitt Romney had actually not been conservative enough, vowing to drive the party further to the Right. – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: Republicans are out of touch. Democrats are not. The Tea Party is dead.
Free-Market Analysis: Post-election, the US Republican Party will go about the business of tearing itself to pieces, as well it should. As observers of directed history here at the Daily Bell, watching the past ten years of politics presented via the prism of what we call the Internet Reformation has been instructive indeed.
There IS no real (legitimate) Republican Party left, from what we can tell. Before the violent and thuggish deconstruction of the libertarian Ron Paul Revolution, Ron Paul was on his way to taking over the Party. We watched it happen.
Read More @

Obama’s Designed Implosion of The Economy is Underway

from TheAlexJonesChannel:

Alex covers the continued implosion of the economy following the reselection of Obama and its promised acceleration under the mandates of Agenda 21.

Obama Continues To Wage Aggressive War On Whistleblowers To Protect His Secret Drone War

WikiLeaks flags Obama’s “persecution” of anti-secrecy activists, secret killings; Assange Slams President as ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’
by Steve Watson, Prison Planet:

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange polarizes people. Some love him, some hate him, others believe he is, whether knowingly or not, a useful tool for the spy hierarchy in the US and elsewhere in the West. Assange’s reaction to the reelection of Obama is worthy of note, however. Not only because he is one of the only high profile dissenting voices in the public eye, but also because he has experienced first hand how Obama has instituted one of the most extreme under the radar crack-downs on dissenters in history.
In a telephone interview with AFP from his asylum at Ecuador’s London embassy, Assange urged that Obama’s reelection should not be any cause for celebration.
“It’s better to have a sheep in wolf’s clothing than a wolf in sheep’s clothing.” Assange said, adding that he expects the Obama administration to continue attacking and persecuting anti-secrecy activists.
Read More @

Huge Moves Coming In Gold, Silver, US Dollar & The Euro

from KingWorldNews:
Today King World News spoke with the global head of strategy for Brown Brother Harriman, which does over $600 billion each month in currency transactions. KWN wanted to get Marc Chandler’s take on where the US dollar and euro are headed from current levels because this directly impacts the gold and silver markets. Important implications for gold and silver are included here.
Here is what Chandler had to say: “We are seeing general strength in the US dollar, despite the fact that the Fed is engaged in quantitative easing of an unlimited nature, and despite the fiscal cliff looming. Right now the euro is trading at two month lows against the dollar.
Marc Chandler continues @

Globalists Pull Out All Stops to Grab Guns After Obama Victory

by Kurt Nimmo, InfoWars:
Prior to the election, warned that Obama, his Democrat allies and the internationalist gun-grabbers would move their agenda to disarm America forward if Obama was reappointed on November 6.
“Less than 24 hours after winning re-election, President Barack Obama’s administration joined with China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, and more than 150 other governments, in supporting renewed debate on the proposed United Nations Arms Trade Treaty, confirming the worst fears of the American gun rights community,” the Second Amendment Foundation reported on Wednesday.
“U.N. delegates and gun control activists have complained that talks collapsed in July largely because Obama feared attacks from Republican rival Mitt Romney if his administration was seen as supporting the pact, a charge Washington denies,” the New York Times reported the same day.
Read More @ InfoWars

Hmmm: ECB to launch new euro banknotes in May

from France 24:
The European Central Bank announced Thursday that it will launch a new series of euro banknotes gradually over the coming years, starting with a new five-euro note in May 2013.
ECB chief Mario Draghi told a news conference here that the current notes, launched on January 1, 2002, would be gradually withdrawn from circulation.
“The European Central Bank and the national central banks of the eurosystem are to introduce a second series of euro banknotes. Called the ‘Europa’ series, it will include a portrait of Europa — a figure from Greek mythology and the origin of the name of our continent — in the watermark and the hologram.
Read More @


by Peter Sterry, 21st Century Wire:
Ivory towers have never been built so high, and the public kept so removed, as it has with the BBC.
Explaining things to the public is, theoretically, one of the BBC’s principal tasks, but its principle executives have found it impossible to do so when it comes to issue of institutional paedophilia.
While the focus of media attention has rightly moved to the widening investigations into child abuse in government and public institutions, and away from Sir Jimmy Savile, the national broadcaster still remains at the forefront of the issue.
Read More @ 21stCenturyWire

In The News Today

November 8, 2012, at 9:13 pm

Ron Paul: Election shows U.S. ‘far gone’ By Stephen Dinan – The Washington Times
November 8, 2012, 11:56AM

Rep. Ron Paul, whose maverick presidential bids shook the GOP, said in the wake of this week’s elections that the country has already veered over the fiscal cliff and he sees no chance of righting ship in a country where too many people are dependent on government.
"We’re so far gone. We’re over the cliff," the Texas Republican told Bloomberg Television’s "In the Loop" program. "We cannot get enough people in Congress in the next 5-10 years who will do wise things." The video can be seen at

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Currency induced cost push inflation, which is a form of hyperinflation, will like Hurricane Sandy cause dislocations in the delivery system of goods and products. This is why shortages can occur economically in inflationary experiences that few understand.
Study economic history or be prepared to relive it.

New York Mayor Bloomberg imposes post-Sandy fuel ration 8 November 2012 Last updated at 16:34 ET
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered number plate-based petrol rationing, 10 days after Storm Sandy ravaged the city.
Fuel shortages since the storm hit have led to hours-long waiting times at pumps, and traffic chaos for commuters struggling to get to work.
Similar measures were introduced in New Jersey on Saturday and will also be enforced in New York’s Long Island.
Only 25% of the city’s petrol stations are operating, Mr Bloomberg added.
Under the rationing system, cars with licence plates ending in odd numbers will be allowed to buy fuel only on odd-numbered days of the month; cars with even numbers at the end of their licence plates will be allowed to buy petrol on even-numbered days.
The rule will come into effect at 06:00 EDT (11:00 GMT) on Friday, the mayor announced.
New York City’s yellow taxis and emergency vehicles are exempt from the rationing rules.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Unprovoked. International air space. Unarmed. Sounds to me like standard MSM.
What do you think the USA would do to a similar drone 100 miles off of Washington DC in international airspace?

Iran fired at unarmed US drone, Pentagon says Published November 08, 2012
Iran fired on an unarmed U.S. drone last week as it was hovering in international airspace, the Pentagon announced Thursday.
Spokesman George Little said the incident, which marks the first time the Iranians have fired on a U.S. drone, occurred Nov. 1 at 4:50 a.m. ET. He said the unarmed, unmanned drone was conducting "routine surveillance" over the Persian Gulf when it was "intercepted" by Iran. He said the MQ1 Predator drone, which was not hit, was not in Iranian airspace.
According to Little, two Iranian jets fired twice, missing on both attempts — the drone headed away from the Iranian coast, landing safely soon after at an undisclosed location. The Iranian jets pursued the drone for a short period before giving up.
Little said the U.S. government has protested to the Iranians. Asked about how the U.S. could respond, he said: "We have a wide range of options from diplomatic to military."
He would not say whether there were actually plans for a military response. Asked if this should be considered an act of war, Little said he didn’t want to get into "legal characterizations" of the event.
Little stressed that the drone was flying 16 nautical miles off the coast of Kuwait in international waters, and never entered the 12-mile limit that would constitute Iranian territory.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Pensioner, the Bankster’s worst act.
The most endangered species on the planet is on two legs and called a pensioner. Now if we just let them all croak soon some feel that our economic problems might benefit.
Don’t get a bunch of gezers angry. They have nothing now to lose as they are going to lose it all.
This does not apply to you? I was 19 and making 35 OTC markets in what seems were a few moments ago. Age creeps up on you, and when you see it flies like the wind.
Who speaks for these people? Who is their advocate? Nobody! Therefore will they be abandoned by the bankster run society as a curtailment of entitlement by forced attrition?

5 Trillion Price Tag for Public Pensions By Philip Moeller | U.S.News & World Report LP
As strapped state and local governments scramble for ways to balance their budgets, it’s become very clear that it will be impossible for many to honor their pension promises to new employees and even current retirees. According to a recent economic study, the cost to fully fund these promises would cost taxpayers $5 trillion over a 30-year period, or nearly $1,400 a year in higher state and local taxes and fees for every household in the country.
Put another way, contributions to pay for public employees’ retirement benefits now total 5.7 percent a year of all state and local taxes, fees, and other government charges. "Government contributions to state and local pension systems must rise to 14.1 percent" to produce fully funded pension systems, the study said, and it will take 30 years to get there.
The magnitude of this challenge can be debated and, indeed, hinges on the future investment performance of retirement funds that can’t be known today. Economists Robert Novy-Marx (University of Rochester) and Joshua D. Rauh (Stanford) based their price tag on a snapshot of the condition of state and local pensions in 2010. They then assumed economic growth in the states would average what it has been like over the past 10 years, assuming the continuation of present retirement rules. Finally, they factored in reasonable future investment gains in government retirement funds. Their $5 trillion answer is what it would take for governments to honor their retirement commitments and develop a system that was fully funded over the next 30 years.
They also studied other possible outcomes, including different combinations of the kinds of pension cutbacks that are already being tried in some states. The results were not encouraging for taxpayers. For example, in what they say has come to be known as a "soft freeze," some states are moving new employees out of guaranteed, defined-benefit pensions and into defined-contribution plans similar to private-sector 401(k) accounts. If all new state and local government employees were forced to use such defined-contribution plans, the study found, average household taxes would still rise by more than $1,200 a year.
Adopting a much harsher "hard freeze" policy would stop all future benefit increases. No benefits would be revoked, but they would not grow over time to reflect an employee’s rising salary or added years of service. Having frozen future pension liabilities, their study assumes states and localities would add a new defined-contribution plan and would need to make employer contributions into that plan. This approach would reduce annual taxpayer increases to $800–a figure still above what many taxpayers would tolerate.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Compliments of John Williams, someone who deserves your subscription.

- September Trade Data Suggest Upside Pressure on GDP Revision

- Hurricane Sandy May Have Disrupted Flow of Trade Data

- No Meaningful Shift in Control of U.S. Government, As Budget-Deficit and Debt-Limit Woes Come to the Fore


Economic Sun Will Set On Great Britain And Their Financials

Hello Jim,
Care to share your thoughts on this? It seems like the Nobel Prizes at the Bank of England are starting to realize that inflation is picking up. Do you think it could prompt other central banks to end easy money?
Best regards,
CIGA Julien

Dear Julien,

The economic sun will set on Great Britain and its financial institutions. GB will, in a short time, be pumping twice, and three times as much.
You will see a form of financial dogma in a short period of time. The hawks will be run out of their GB gentlemen clubs, and unwelcome at the fox hunts.
The end result of this on other central banks will be to increase stimulus by orders of magnitude.


Jim’s Mailbox

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Julien shares some fun charts with us.
The conclusions are quite obvious. Read them and tell me. I will grade you.


Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified


No comments:

Post a Comment