Thursday, November 1, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Satellite Photos: Before And After

While New Yorkers living south of 34th Street have to live in cold and dark for an indefinite period of time (ConEd has been firm electricity will be restored by the weekend, it has been far more vague just which weekend it had in mind), the biggest devastataion from Sandy took place further south, primarily along the New Jersey coastline. In order to get a sense of the devastation that has taken place, we present images from the NOAA's satellite photo tracker, which shows aerial comparisons of the Jersey and Delaware coastline before and after. Because while one can contemplate navels in very broad terms if any wealth is created or destroyed due to Sandy breaking many windows at the macro level, any and all people who lived in the affected territories below will have a far more practical answer to this stupid question.

Dumpster Diving In The Lower East Side

When one thinks of dumpster diving in the "developed world", one usually starts with Greece, and ends with Spain (where this activity has been so pervasive, lately even the dumpsters have been on lock down). Certainly, Manhattan's Lower East Side is not one of the places that immediately comes to mind. Sadly, now that the city's more Bohmeian neighborhood has been without power and food for 3 days running, and the prospect of electricity being restored is still dim, the local residents have no choice but to do what their insolvent peers from across the Atlantic do every day (even as the capital markets fool themselves that all is well because Draghi said so). For a candid look at how the other part of Manhattan lives now, watch the clip below.

Getting On The Train - The Rail Resurrection Gets Underway

Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America’s rail system. At Seattle’s historic King Street Station (a classic example of early 20th Century railroad architecture), a nasty looking dropped-tile ceiling – which hung above travellers for decades – was removed late last year to reveal ornate plasterwork as the building undergoes extensive renovation. These cosmetic (and structural) alterations are part of a wide-ranging upgrade to the entire Cascades passenger rail service that runs from Vancouver, British Columbia, to Eugene, Oregon. In Tacoma, for example, a new station will either be built or renovated, and part of the Cascades line will be re-routed from its current shoreline path more directly through that city. Elsewhere, bridges are being rebuilt, track is being upgraded, and other infrastructure improvements are underway as part of the $500 million program to resurrect more efficient, faster inter-city rail in the 466-mile Amtrak route through this part of the Pacific Northwest. These changes will not bring European-style high-speed rail to the United States. Indeed, in many similar projects across the country, top speeds of 125 mph will characterize new system capability, rather than the average speed actually maintained from city to city. However, the incremental improvements now underway will become the platform for the next phase of investment, as Americans are increasingly persuaded to limit their car ownership and make rail transport part of their lives once again.

Barrick reports a terrible earnings figures with higher costs and lower production/PMI figures from Asia rise but PMI in Europe lower/

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 53 minutes ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: First forgive me for the different fonts as I use 2 different computers throughout the day. Gold closed down today to the tune of $3.40 resting at $1711.10 comex closing time.  Silver after rising early in the session to $32.64 settled down 3 cents to $32.26.  In the access market : In the access market at 5 pm:  gold $1715.30 silver: $32.28 No doubt

Few Wanted To Touch The Euro This Summer

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
How investors were bullish on the Euro when negative headlines ruled the tape this summer? The very short list included Jim, the Euro's diffusion index (DI) or the message of the market, plus a few others. Most investors were scared to death to touch it. As goes the Euro, so goes equities, gold, silver, etc. Once a trend starts, it usually continues until statistical... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Rosie On Sandy: One Economist's Realistic Hurricane Post-Mortem

Tired of idiotic "expert assessments" how the destruction in the aftermath of Sandy is good for the economy and "creates wealth" (just ask these people or these how much wealthier they feel with their house halfway still underwater, or with not a bite to eat)? Then read the following brief summary by David Rosenberg what the real and full impact of Rosie on the US will be: "the surprise for Q4? A negative GDP print."

Stocks Sizzle As Apple Fizzles

Today's entire stock market action was contained in the span of an hour starting with the open, following a series of economic data which, as was to be expected, couldn't possibly disappoint several days ahead of the election. Sure enough, after everything came in mostly in line or beat, ES ramped from its recent support level just north of 1400 to a high of about 1424, in no more than 60 minutes, and meandered there for the balance of the day where it also closed, on above average volume. What is interesting is that unlike yesterday, when the ramp took place in the overnight, ES-driven session, following which it fizzled all day, today it finally allowed retail investors to jump in alongside the first of the month capital flows. Needless to say, equities were once again in a vacuum of their own, with the EURUSD sliding, TSYs broadly unchanged, and that one time biggest driver of market upside, Apple, unable to stage any break out.

To Mike Bloomberg A Vote For Obama, Whom He Just Endorsed, Is A Vote For Climate Change

First, The Economist, now the man who owns the terminal that global finance uses each day to chat with one another, and occasionally to check the real time price of ESZ2 (if certainly not quite as much this year, and last, as desired). Mike Bloomberg's driving catalyst to chose the way he did? Climate change. Because to some it is the economy, to others: the number of cloudless sunny days in St Barts. The question for employees of Bain now: do they immediately disconnect their BBG terminals, or wait until next Wednesday.

Has Housing Bottomed?

After an almost uninterrupted period of decline over the last few years, US home prices now have some positive momentum. For one, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities has seen its highest increase in more than two years. In addition, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that his bank was seeing a surge in mortgage applications. And perhaps most importantly, the National Association of Realtors has reported that the nation’s inventory of homes on the market has dropped to its lowest level since March 2006, while the median home price is 11.3% higher than a year ago. These are definitely good signs for housing. But remember, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Just like a stock market that suffers a serious crash, housing has been due for an upward correction. But it is a false premise to conflate ‘rebound’ with full blown ‘recovery’. The market could just as easily improve, then decline once again in a few months’ time. Positive data is great, but doesn’t necessarily portend long-term growth.

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Fisker Karma Is First Car To Burn Underwater

The plight of the infamous, and quite inflammable, Fisker Karma (not to mention its now defaulted battery vendor A123) has been extensively documented on these pages in the past. Today, we bring it up again, to observe a curious extra feature which its proud buyers may have been unaware of. It appears that, as Jalopnik reports, the car only free government loans with a 0% (or even negative) IRR hurdle rate could conceive, is now the first one to proudly announce it is the only one of its type that merrily burns down... while submerged underwater. We fully expect that the next generation of Fiskers will charge at least $995 for this non-optional standard feature. In other news, perhaps it is time for Karma to issue yet another comprehensive total recall of all of its cars due to "fire risk" - the last one seems to have missed a spark plug or two: they can say this is a recall for the risk of "burning down alive while fully submerged undewater."

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A nice change from launching large explosive projectiles onto the same beach, at the same time, 7 days a week.

Cross-Strait currency clearing takes effect   2012-11-01 13:11:33
BEIJING, Nov. 1 (Xinhuanet) — At a press conference held on Wednesday, the spokesman of China’s State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office Yang Yi says the cross-strait currency settlement memorandum signed at the end of August has officially gone into effect.
The scheme will allow direct currency transactions between the Mainland and Taiwan’s banking systems, thereby forging closer monetary ties.
The Chinese mainland and Taiwan signed a deal late August that paves the way for Taiwan banks to take deposits and loans in renminbi.
Under the deal, the two sides will each designate a bank to carry out currency settlements and liquidations for the other side.
Yang Yi, spokesman of the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, says that monetary authorities from both sides have geared up for the operation of the cross-strait currency settlement mechanism.
Yang said, "Both sides can start the Renminbi settlement business via clearing banks or agents banks now. Banks in Taiwan, if allowed by Taiwan financial authorities, could begin Renminbi settlement by using the agent bank model. And our mainland financial authorities are choosing clearing banks under a transparent, fair and open mechanism. We hope the direct currency transaction business can start as soon as possible."

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The first casualty of the decline of the Republic is truth. The second is the Republic...


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This ought to be an interesting New Year.

US to hit borrowing ceiling at year-end: Treasury 31 October 2012 – 15H50
AFP – The United States will hit its statutory borrowing limit near the end of 2012, just as a new Congress gears up to do battle over the country’s huge debt burden and fiscal deficits.
The country’s current debt is around $16.2 trillion, and continued borrowing needs to finance the budget shortfall will send the government past the fixed $16.39 trillion sometime in the final days of the year.
The limit will be struck between the November 6 presidential and congressional elections and the time when the new Congress is sworn in in early January.
If Republican Mitt Romney defeats President Barack Obama in the White House race, it would also come while Obama serves as a lame duck president before his successor takes office on January 20.
That raises the prospect of a possible political battle spanning both the old, outgoing Congress and a possibly reshaped new legislature, over how to finance the deficit, which hit $1.1 trillion in the fiscal year that just ended.
And it would also come as Republicans and Democrats seek a compromise on an alternative to the "fiscal cliff" crash austerity plan of budget cuts and tax hikes that will be implemented from January 1, threatening to send the country back into recession.


Jim’s Mailbox

Few Wanted To Touch The Euro This Summer CIGA Eric
How investors were bullish on the Euro when negative headlines ruled the tape this summer?  The very short list included Jim, the Euro’s diffusion index (DI) or the message of the market, plus a few others.  Most investors were scared to death to touch it.
As goes the Euro, so goes equities, gold, silver, etc.  Once a trend starts, it usually continues until statistical concentration.
Chart:  Euro (FXE) And Euro Diffusion Index (DI) clip_image002[6]

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A chart of interest from CIGA HK.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is a note from our poet laureate, CIGA Richard S.

Dear CIGAs,
As usual (and as expected), the Cartel once again used the monthly ‘jobs report’ with two states missing the filing to orchestrate a paper-raid on precious metals this morning. It was also an opportunity to show support for their candidate in next week’s election (as Bureau of Labor Statistics just did).
A word to the Cartel and their flying monkeys from Jim & yours truly: No matter where you stand, no matter how fast or far you run, when it finally hits the fan… as much as possible will be flung in your direction, and you will not possess a towel large enough to wipe it all off.
CIGA Richard S
clip_image001 clip_image002


In The News Today

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Russia is buttoning up loose ends. The West has no room for economic error whatsoever. Russia and China are getting ready to take full and aggressive benefit of a banking crisis in the West.
The risk of rocking the economic ship right now has never been as serious. To end or continue QE, to stimulate or reverse has a lot more risk today than simple economics.
War today is electronic and economic.

Russia internet blacklist law takes effect 31 October 2012 Last updated at 20:06 ET
A law that aims to protect children from harmful internet content by allowing the government to take sites offline has taken effect in Russia.
The authorities are now able to blacklist and force offline certain websites without a trial.
The law was approved by both houses of parliament and signed by President Vladimir Putin in July.
Human rights groups have said the legislation might increase censorship in the country.
The law is the amendment to the current Act for Information.
The authorities say the goal is to protect minors from websites featuring sexual abuse of children; offering details about how to commit suicide; encouraging users to take drugs; and sites that solicit children for pornography.
If the websites themselves cannot be shut down, internet service providers (ISPs) and web hosting companies can be forced to block access to the offending material.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today many gold writer’s opinions are being offered as fact. The fact is they are opinions taken out of thin air, but not proven fact. The take away from all this is positive for gold as a national asset to be protected and kept not by strangers who give promises, but by yourself and close to home. Even an audit is secondary to having the real thing in your own vault. The days of the US holding gold to protect other countries from the boogie man are over. The inference is that the gold now needs to be protected from the country warehousing it.

Why do the Germans want their gold back?
Commentary: There’s something reassuring about physical money
By Matthew Lynn
Oct. 31, 2012, 2:00 a.m. EDT

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Where does Germany keep its gold reserves? It might sound like a silly question. In Germany, of course. Probably in a very deep vault somewhere in Frankfurt, surrounded by the best security systems that Teutonic technical brilliance can create.
As it turns out, however, that is the wrong answer.
Much of the German gold, the second largest national reserves in the world, is held in New York, London and Paris. Now there is a campaign under way in Germany to bring the metal back home — and it is gathering strength all the time.
That tells us three things about the global monetary system, none of them especially reassuring.
Part of the appeal of gold as money is that you can see it and touch it, and Germans can’t see the gold that’s hidden away in New York and London.
The German gold reserves are among the most significant in the world. The country controls 3,396 tons of the stuff. That is a lot less than the United States’ 8,133 tons, but then Germany is a smaller country, and it has never had the world’s reserve currency. It is a lot more than the 2,451 tons held by the Italians or the 2,435 tons held by the French.
Much of it was built up under the old Bretton Woods system that operated from the end of World War II until 1971. Trade deficits and surpluses were settled by central banks in gold, and since Germany regularly ran big surpluses it ended up with a lot of the metal.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This must survive the "Motion to Dismiss" in Federal Court before you can consider the suit seriously active.

Major Banks, Governmental Officials and Their Comrade Capitalists Targets of Spire Law Group, LLP’s Racketeering and Money Laundering Lawsuit Seeking Return of $43 Trillion to the United States Treasury
NEW YORK, Oct. 25, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — Spire Law Group, LLP’s national home owners’ lawsuit, pending in the venue where the "Banksters" control their $43 trillion racketeering scheme (New York) – known as the largest money laundering and racketeering lawsuit in United States History and identifying $43 trillion ($43,000,000,000,000.00) of laundered money by the "Banksters" and their U.S. racketeering partners and joint venturers – now pinpoints the identities of the key racketeering partners of the "Banksters" located in the highest offices of government and acting for their own self-interests.
In connection with the federal lawsuit now impending in the United States District Court in Brooklyn, New York (Case No. 12-cv-04269-JBW-RML) – involving, among other things, a request that the District Court enjoin all mortgage foreclosures by the Banksters nationwide, unless and until the entire $43 trillion is repaid to a court-appointed receiver – Plaintiffs now establish the location of the $43 trillion ($43,000,000,000,000.00) of laundered money in a racketeering enterprise participated in by the following individuals (without limitation): Attorney General Holder acting in his individual capacity, Assistant Attorney General Tony West, the brother in law of Defendant California Attorney General Kamala Harris (both acting in their individual capacities), Jon Corzine (former New Jersey Governor), Robert Rubin (former Treasury Secretary and Bankster), Timothy Geitner, Treasury Secretary (acting in his individual capacity), Vikram Pandit (recently resigned and disgraced Chairman of the Board of Citigroup), Valerie Jarrett (a Senior White House Advisor), Anita Dunn (a former "communications director" for the Obama Administration), Robert Bauer (husband of Anita Dunn and Chief Legal Counsel for the Obama Re-election Campaign), as well as the "Banksters" themselves, and their affiliates and conduits. The lawsuit alleges serial violations of the United States Patriot Act, the Policy of Embargo Against Iran and Countries Hostile to the Foreign Policy of the United States, and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (commonly known as the RICO statute) and other State and Federal laws.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is what you should be as a gold guy. You know the IB opposition are a bunch of pansies.
Trick or Treat.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

BS still floats, and Sandy is a great excuse for lousy statistics.

New ADP Count Slashes Job Creation for September Published: Wednesday, 31 Oct 2012 | 12:54 PM ET
Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.
ADP’s new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.
The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody’s Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.
The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor’s September job creation total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector. The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent, as the government said the total number of new workers swelled by 873,000.
Economists expect Friday’s report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.
When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.
The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government’s numbers indicate.
"It’s huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we’re going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Compliments of the Merke funds.
It does not matter who wins the election, the devil you know, or the one you do not. The US dollar’s primary trend is much lower.



Jim’s Mailbox

Greece delays austerity vote, warns of ‘chaos’ CIGA Eric
As long as interest rates remain below dividend yields, expect capital to continue flowing into gold, silver, and stocks to the point of extreme concentration (buying climax) despite all pessimism and a growing number of calls for austerity.
The real concern comes after the cyclical highs in 2015.  Austerity spun as the economic solution for the benefit of the few over the many can sow the seeds of revolution.
Humanity is walking a very fine line here. But what’s really new with that? History has a nasty habit of repeating around similar themes, because the aspirations of humanity and consequences of them are relatively constant over time.
Headline:  Greece delays austerity vote, warns of ‘chaos’
ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece’s coalition government will delay a vote on major new austerity measures by another week, warning Tuesday there would be financial "chaos" if a deal is not reached.
Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told reporters that the austerity measures, worth €13.5 billion ($17.4 billion), would be submitted to parliament next week, as the three parties in government continue to disagree over new savings demanded by international bailout lenders.
Stournaras denied local media reports that the bill could be broken up to ease objections by a left-wing junior coalition partner.


Nation of Denial

By Greg Hunter’s

Dear CIGAs,
There is no bigger sign post about the state of the U.S. economy than the Federal Reserve’s announcement in September of “open ended” QE.  This is unlimited money printing that is being done by the Fed until further notice.  All the talk of the so-called “recovery” was reduced to a gigantic lie perpetrated on the American people.  If the economy was in a “real recovery,” the Fed would be raising interest rates, and there would be no need to create $85 billion each and every month to “stimulate” the economy.  Former Reagan budget director David Stockman says the Fed is on a “money printing binge.”  He said three weeks ago on FOX, “We’ve never had a central bank that has printed this much money. . . . I don’t think they can whistle this tune very much longer.”  To that, host Neil Cavuto said, “So if you had a lead suit, you would buy it.  If you had a cyanide pill you would take it.”  I think Mr. Cavuto was trying to make a joke, but nothing is funny about a dying empire.  
Renowned investor Jim Sinclair explained money printing by the Fed on his website recently by saying, “The economy is a drug addict. The creation of money is history making in a modern economy and money creation acts exactly like a drug. Like a drug the more you take, the more you need. The more money you create, the more money you must continue to create until it goes to infinity. You go cold turkey on money creation, you unleash the economic wrath of hell in the entire Western world. It all comes down in one great implosion.”  How much trouble is the U.S. economy in that its central bank has to create unprecedented amounts of currency to keep it from “one great implosion”?  Is there any wonder why Mr. Sinclair predicts gold is going about $3,000 per ounce in the not-so-distant future, and will ultimately hit $12,000 per ounce.  (I would take Mr. Sinclair seriously.  He has a track record of making very big calls on gold that date back to the 1970′s.  I wrote about this 2 years ago.)
Countries around the world are shunning the dollar in trade.  The biggest blow to the buck came earlier this year with a trade agreement between China and Japan.  These are the second and third biggest economies in the world behind the U.S.  Other countries such as Russia, India and Brazil are just a few more countries moving away from the dollar in trade.  As the dollar loses world reserve currency status, it will decline in value.  Its buying power will be reduced.  The only question is how much will it fall?  Will we see $8 a gallon gasoline or $18?  Remember, the Fed’s money printing policies are “open-ended.” In 2011, the Fed bought 61% of America’s debt.  At a rate of $85 billion a month, it will be buying more than $1 trillion a year.  How long will this go on?  

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