Monday, November 5, 2012

Vote Tuesday: Buy an Ounce of Silver!

from Silver Vigilante:
Everyone is asking: “Are you going to throw your vote away?” That seems to be the main question this election season: Whether or not others are excited to “throw their vote away” in some sort of sick and twisted protest. No matter what you place on your ballot, however, there is one way you can ensure that your vote on Tuesday was not wasted. You can buy an ounce of silver!
This is the best way to undermine the New World Order of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve directed consolidation of wealth on the planet. Take something off their “free market” so that they can never nationalize it for their own futures in violation of the natural rights of all things living!
The best vote you can make on Tuesday is a vote against the dominant financial system. No matter who is President, sitting in the White House directing the “Washington Consensus,” national decisions will be made by a financial system above and beyond law and morality. That is why a vote against that system is the ultimate vote on Tuesday. Do what you want. Write in Ron Paul. Vote for Gary Johnson.
Read More @ Silver Vigilante

Yra On Gold Market Overview From An HFT Perspective

by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
Dear CIGAs,
Here is a message from the finest intellect in the market, a man capable of leading, Yra Harris.
We are honored that Yra reads us, and more so that he shares his thoughts with us. Thank you, Yra.
Dear CIGAs,
I believe this is dead on – especially in his view on the impact of the HFT algo’s that are driven by keywords in headlines. When Marc Cuban is railing about this in regards to equities, the world is becoming aware as to what we have known – a giant casino with the entire board a slot machine devoid of any fundamentals, at least on a short term basis. As long as regulators fail to actually regulate the capital markets, we as all good warriors must adapt to the battlefield and take advantage of the army fighting way ahead of its supply lines, and if supply lines mean fundamentals then we will wait and move only when they are lost in our terrain.
Patience is demanded.
Read More @ JS Mineset

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A 21% Chance Of A 50% Plunge In The S&P 500?

Investors' perceptions of risks, both normal (volatility) and tail (event), have intriguingly run to both extremes at the same time. 'Normal' volatility has been so suppressed by Central-Bank action as to become an almost useless indicator (or at best contemporaneous) - or as Artemis Capital notes "volatility has become a shadow currency" with the USD (safe-haven) becoming considerably more correlated with volatility. Extreme volatility concerns are where the 'unintended' consequence has appeared. In a somewhat stunning market realization, options markets currently suggest a 1 in 4.7 chance of a greater-than-50% drop in the S&P over the next year. That is more likely than the lifetime risk of a heart attack. The question then is, are tail-risks over-priced? Or are investors willing to overpay for that kind of 'deflation' insurance since we now know that the impossible is possible!

Will A Prophet Assume Command?

"Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire." Strauss & Howe wrote these words in 1997. They understood the dynamics of how generations interact and how the mood of the country shifts every twenty or so years based upon the generational alignment that occurs as predictably as the turning of the seasons. The last generation that lived through the entire previous Crisis from 1929 through 1946 has virtually died off. For those who doubt generational theory and believe history is a linear path of human progress, I would point to the last week of chaos, disarray, government dysfunction, and misery of those who didn’t prepare for Superstorm Sandy, as a prelude to the worst of this Crisis. The lack of preparation by government officials and citizens, death, destruction, panic, anger, helplessness and realization of how fragile our system has become is a perfect analogy to our preparation for this Fourth Turning. The regeneracy of the nation will occur during the next presidential term. The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute.

Valencia To People: 'Don't Get Sick' As Pharmacies Strike Indefinitely

The regional government of the Communidad Valencia owes pharmacies in Valencia, Alicante, and Castellon five and a half months of prescription payments. The EUR450mm debt that is owed has prompted a remarkable (and somewhat justified) action by the pharmacies. As ThinkSpain reports, from today, two in every three pharmacies will be closed each day, on rotation, until the debt is settled. Last week the government settled half of their April debt and half of their May debt using funds from the Regional Liquidity Fund (FLA) but as the pharmacists point out, "this [merely] moves [them] back to where [they] were, since on Wednesday, we'll be adding another month's worth to the ongoing debt." Perhaps this fact - among all the others - combined with the ECB's lies, will bring some reality to the minds of those who see these bailouts as anything but a band-aid - and in fact (in this case) an entirely back-filling band-aid as everyone is faced with a "dramatic situation which has forced [pharmacies] to close indefinitely."

Visualizing The Gun-Control Flip-Flops Of Both Presidential Candidates

Americans are on pace to buy more firearms than ever before in 2012. Yet in the run-up to the 2012 election, both President Obama and Governor Romney have downplayed the topic of gun control. And given that neither one is an avid shooter, special interest groups such as the NRA and the Brady Campaign have dominated much of the campaign rhetoric. The following infographic provides a historical look at how the position on guns of both Governor Romney and President Obama has "evolved" since both entered the political realm.

Gold and silver rise/Greece has one week's cash left/Spanish unemployment rises again/ECB refuses to take in collateral in loaning Spanish banks money/

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 58 minutes ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up $7.40 to finish the comex session at $1682.20.  Silver finished up 28 cents to $31.11 We are now one day away from the big USA election.  The bankers have tried to keep the problems of Europe at bay until after the election. Today we learned that Greece has only one week's worth of cash left.  The ECB must decide whether they are going to kick

Pre-Election Farce

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 5 hours ago
*October Jobs and Unemployment Numbers Were Not Credible, Artifacts of a Broken Reporting System and/or Direct Manipulation* - John Williams, Also from John Williams' latest report, which is worth the price of subscription if you want to have access to someone who has studied and analyzed Government statistics over several decades: The headline numbers (or the general substance of the reporting results) usually are known a week or so in advance, and early release of data to officials in various administrations and at the Federal Reserve has been common in the... more » 

Comic Interlude: Mark Cuban Vs Donald Trump

By now we are confident that everyone is sick to death and beyond of listening about elections, polling, conditional probabilities, permutations, (confusing) statistical sampling and heuristics, and all those other things that the vast majority of the population fail in STAT 101 yet somehow end up as experts in during cocktail hour, on TV, on Op-Ed columns and, of course, on twitter. Which is why we are delighted to bring you this comic interlude. Presenting Donald "The Hairpiece" Trump vs Mark "Avion Tequila" Cuban.

Volumeless Ramp Leaves Stocks Adrift In Election Bliss

UPDATE: Zillow is getting monkey-hammered -27% after-hours on outlook cut
With S&P 500 futures volume around 25% below average, it is little surprise that the little-algos-that-could did their damnedest to get up to Friday's closing VWAP. Equities were in a world of their own today relative to broad risk assets with high-yield credit lower, volatility up, and rates lower - seemingly supported by its correlation with oil (which managed to pop over 1% on the day to almost $86). Utilities were hurt the most as QE-sensitive Materials, Energy, and Tech managing to outperform as AAPL levitated from lower lows ($570) pre-open to bring today's price up to Friday's closing VWAP and that's where we wriggled most of the day, with every rally faded at that magical level. Whether investors were placing chips last minute into the election is unclear (Energy outperformance, Financials unch, and Utility underperformance possibly suggest Romney victory and split house?) but certainly conviction was low as evidenced by volume and pre-ramp ranges. Despite USD strength, Gold and Silver also outperformed on the day as Treasury yields dropped 2-4bps. The S&P ended the day at resistance half-way between Bernanke's Bottom and Draghi's Dream levels...

Timmy (Tax Cheat) Geithner: Next Steps...

Timmy (tax cheat) Geithner's public "servant" tenure has not been without its blemishes: from his deplorable run as the (figure)head of the New York Fed (from 2003 until 2009), when the entire financial system literally imploded under his watch, to his epic failing up as Hank Paulson's replacement as treasury Secretary of the United States, despite his legendary inability to navigate the Minotaurian labyrinth that is the TurboTax income tax flowchart, the Dartmouth alum has had his share of run ins with adversity (and adversity won). Of course, Geithner's tenure in charge of the Treasury in the past 4 years has been somewhat mollified by the fact that here too here was merely a figurehead, and the true entity that runs the US printing presses is none other than the JPM and Goldman Sachs co-chaired Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (for more on the TBAC read here and especially here as pertains to the former LTCM trader and current head of JPM's CIO group), meaning that the US Treasury, just like the Fed, are merely branches of the one true power in US governance: Wall Street. Geithnerian figureheadedness aside, the one undeniable fact is that Tim Geithner's days as head of the Treasury are now numbered: he has made it quite clear that he will not accompany Obama (should the incumbent be reelected) into his second term. So what is a career "public servant" to do once the public no longer has any interest in retaining his services? Bloomberg's Deborah Solomon has some suggestions...

The 'Moments' Of Our Lives

We have had two Greek moments, a Portuguese moment, an Irish moment and we are about to possibly have the “moments of our lives” during the next two weeks. America’s primary moment will be tomorrow when the people of the United States exercise their constitutional right and choose a President and a significant amount of the members of Congress. One thing that can be said with certainty is that we have a choice and a real choice. While America turns inward and pays attention to very little else besides our election on Tuesday we may well find ourselves peering outward on short notice. We are told by Greece that they have one week on money left to pay their bills. Pay attention here; decisions will be made as forced by the financial condition of Greece and can kicking is no longer an operative solution now.

Quote Of The Day From Credit Suisse: "US Stock Market More Reliable Despite Crashes"

Just in case anyone wanted to know what not to say to defend the absolute horrific mess of self-aware vacuum tubes and errant algos, formerly known as "the market", here is a great primer from Credit Suisse's trading strategist Phil Mackintosh.

The Election's Implications For FX Markets

Over the last few weeks we have looked at where the two candidates stand, the implications of a Romney win on the economy, how investors are positioning in equity and bond portfolios for each candidate's potential victory, what gold will do, what stocks will do, and the fact that either way; the easy-money days are over. The last market to look at is the largest - the foreign exchange market - and Citi's Steve Englander provides a succinct explanation of how the various asset-class shifts post-election will impact flows in the FX market. Most specifically, how sensitive various safe-haven and risk-sensitive FX crosses will be to House composition. He also notes the potential for knee-jerk reactions as timing issues across various state poll closings offers exit poll information - especially as a Romney win is very much not priced in.

Is Canada's Housing Bubble 'Different'?

Canadian household debt as a percentage of income by now vastly exceeds the peak that was seen at the height of the US real estate bubble. CIBC thinks the huge amount of household debt in Canada and the beginning cracks in the housing bubble are nothing to worry about. The main reason for this benign assessment seems to be that there have been a few other credit and real estate bubbles in the world that have grown even bigger than the US one before it burst. What a relief. It is generally held that Canada's banking system is in ruddy health and not in danger from the extended credit and real estate bubble, mainly because a government-owned organization, Canadian Mortgage Housing Corp. This kind of thinking has things exactly the wrong way around. It is precisely because such a state-owned guarantor of mortgages exists that the vaunted lending standards of Canada's banks have increasingly gone out of the window as the bubble has grown.

Stocks And Bond Yields Play Catch Down To Gold's Friday Weakness

Friday's afternoon avalanche was unevenly distributed across asset classes with Gold and Oil leading the move lower, the USD limped higher, and until late in the day, stocks and Bonds meandered along together. Equities' late-day plunge saw it catch down to Gold's move and this morning we see the USD and US Treasuries rallying and resyncing to the rest of the asset classes. Volume is leaching away now that Europe is closed and correlation across asset-classes is on the rise as they now seem range-bound. The most notable 'divergences' are among the various ETFs as VXX (volatility) is rising notably, HYG (credit) is losing ground, and TLT (rates) are rallying while SPY (stocks) are unchanged (for now)...

The Center Cannot Hold: Kleptocracy Delegitimizes The Status Quo

The center cannot hold because it has failed the nation by defending the Status Quo kleptocracy. As a case study, let's look at Greece, a nation that is the leading-edge of Status Quo delegitimization and destabilization. As the Status Quo fails to protect the national interests and the citizenry from the neofeudal kleptocracy, faith in the political center fades. What happens when people lose faith in the financial institutions and their coercive "fixes"? They move their capital to less-risky, more productive climes. In other words, capital flight is another positive feedback: as people move their capital out of the country, then there is less available per capita for productive investment. The same holds true for every nation ruled by kleptocratic Elites that has attempted to "grow our way out of debt" by piling debt on debt. Doesn't that include Spain, Italy, China, the U.S. and a host of other nations?

Peripherals Plunge As Swiss/German Safety Sought Once Again

For the tenth day in a row, Portugal's bond spreads widened - now the biggest two-week move since January as its absolute spread is back well above 700bps once again. Spain and Italy have been leaking wider consistently in the last few weeks (+15-25bps from the tights on Friday) and Spanish and Italian equity markets are tumbling back off their post-Draghi euhporia highs (down 2% from Friday's highs alone). Critically, safe-havens are seeing heavy flow; Germany 2Y is back below zero for the first time in two months and Swiss 2Y is below -20bps again. EURUSD is reverting back down to its swap-spread-model implied fair-value as 'hope' fades of OMT's ability to do anything 'real'. Europe's VIX jumped its most in over two weeks to 22.2%.

From "Buy The Presidential Election" To "Sell The Dividend Tax Hike"

As so often happens, the conventional wisdom said to buy every day ahead of the election day because the S&P would surge and peak with the election. Conventional wisdom was wrong. Which is to be expected: in the New Normal one should take any technical signal or old trader wives tale, and do the opposite. Needless to say, the market now is unchanged from where it was two months ago, and from the day Barrons' came out with its latest top tick cover (as we said "here comes that patron saint of all contrarian indicators") page praising the "Teflon Market." So now that the "buy the election" meme is over and done with, what is there to look forward to for the rest of the year? According to Goldman, here comes the "sell ahead of the coming dividend and capital gains tax hike."

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