"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?
If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....
And we see a lot of those.
from KingWorldNews:
With continued volatility in major markets, as well as gold and
silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk
told KWN, “The money coming out of the stock market is not only going
into German and US government paper; it is also going into gold and
silver…” Here is what Turk had to say about the accelerating global
crisis: “The global financial situation is really starting to
spin out of control, Eric. It won’t be long now before the Federal
Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England start more QE in an
attempt to keep global stock markets from imploding and causing another
Lehman Brothers collapse.”
Rob Arnott continues @ KingWorldNews.com
from TruthNeverTold :
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Rob Arnott – Lost Confidence & Stocks to Plunge 20% to 30%
With continued volatility in major markets, as well as gold and
silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk
told KWN, “The money coming out of the stock market is not only going
into German and US government paper; it is also going into gold and
silver…” Here is what Turk had to say about the accelerating global
crisis: “The global financial situation is really starting to
spin out of control, Eric. It won’t be long now before the Federal
Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England start more QE in an
attempt to keep global stock markets from imploding and causing another
Lehman Brothers collapse.”Rob Arnott continues @ KingWorldNews.com
from TruthNeverTold :
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Rob Arnott – Lost Confidence & Stocks to Plunge 20% to 30%
from KingWorldNews:
With continued volatility in global markets, today King World News
interviewed five time Graham & Dodd Award Winner, Rob Arnott, who
oversees more than $100 billion as the Founder & Chairman of
Research Affiliates. When asked if the global economy and financial
system is at risk of a collapse, Arnott responded, “There is
certainly a danger of it accelerating into a nastier situation. What we
need to do is find some resolution of the problem. The problem is
spending money we don’t have. The consequence of spending money we
don’t have is runaway indebtedness, which sews the seeds for a Greek
style default.”
Rob Arnott continues @ KingWorldNews.com
With continued volatility in global markets, today King World News
interviewed five time Graham & Dodd Award Winner, Rob Arnott, who
oversees more than $100 billion as the Founder & Chairman of
Research Affiliates. When asked if the global economy and financial
system is at risk of a collapse, Arnott responded, “There is
certainly a danger of it accelerating into a nastier situation. What we
need to do is find some resolution of the problem. The problem is
spending money we don’t have. The consequence of spending money we
don’t have is runaway indebtedness, which sews the seeds for a Greek
style default.”Rob Arnott continues @ KingWorldNews.com
Eric Sprott: The Real Banking Crisis, Part II
Here we go again. Back in July 2011 we wrote an article entitled "The Real Banking Crisis" where we discussed the increasing instability of the Eurozone banks suffering from depositor bank runs. Since that time (and two LTRO infusions and numerous bailouts later), Eurozone banks, as represented by the Euro Stoxx Banks Index, have fallen more than 50% from their July 2011 levels and are now in the midst of yet another breakdown led by the abysmal situation currently unfolding in Greece and Spain.... Although the last eight months have not played out the way we would have expected for gold, they have played out the way we envisioned for the banks. The question now is how long this can go on for, and how long gold can remain under pressure in a banking crisis that has the potential to spread beyond Greece and Spain? So much now rests on the policy responses fashioned by the US Fed and ECB, and just as much also rests on what's left of European citizens' confidence in their local banking institutions. Neither of these things can be precisely measured or predicted, but we continue to firmly believe that depositors in Greece and Spain will choose gold over drachmas or pesetas if they have the foresight and are given the freedom to act accordingly. The number one reason we have always believed gold should be owned, and why we believe it will go higher, is people's growing distrust of the banking system - and we are now there. We will wait and see how the summer develops, and keep our attention firmly focused of the second phase of the bank run now spreading across southern Europe.
China PMI Plunges Most In 28 Months, Reverts To HSBC's Reality
Color
us not stunned at all. China's Manufacturing PMI finally reverted to
the reality that HSBC's Manufacturing PMI has been arguing for and fell
for the first time in six months. The drop is the largest since
February 2010. While still above 50 (though the lowest level of
expansion in five months), or 50.4 technically, down from 53.4, and
missing expectations of 52.0, it seems another engine of global growth
just sputtered finally - as the real impact of a European depression and
fiscally challenged US hit home.Be Afraid Europe, Be Very Afraid - Tim Geithner Is Now "Helping" You
If there was one piece of news that could force an all out panic in a market already on the edge, it is that outgoing (as in finally departing) US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, was getting involved in the European Crisis. Sadly, this is precisely what happened.- SPAIN DEPUTY PM: US TREASURY'S GEITHNER AGREES TO WORK WITH SPAIN TO RESOLVE BANK CRISIS - DJ
- SAENZ DE SANTAMARIA SAYS GEITHNER URGES SPAIN BANK SOLUTION
- SPAIN'S SAENZ DE SANTAMARIA TOLD GEITHNER OF REFORM EFFORTS
- GEITHNER DISCUSSED SPAIN'S PLANS TO STRENGTHEN FINANCE SECTOR
- SPAIN'S SAENZ DE SANTAMARIA TOLD GEITHNER OF REFORM EFFORTS
Myths and Realities of Returning to a Gold Standard
Short of the complete destruction of a fiat currency, there is nothing that can demonstrate beyond doubt the shallowness of the promise to protect purchasing power that is being made on any day. There is no bright line separating performance from talk. With a gold standard, deception is much more difficult. Creating too much money will lead to redemptions that drain away the official gold stockpile. Everyone can see the inventory shrinking. If it shrinks to zero, then the managers of the system have failed, period. There is no ambiguity about it, and the politicians in charge at the time have little room for denial. The formal adoption of a gold standard holds no magic. It's just another promise. But it is a promise that carries an assured potential for egg-on-face political embarrassment if it is broken, and the only way for the people in charge to avoid that embarrassment is to refrain from recklessly expanding the supply of cash. That's why a gold standard protects the value of a currency, and that is why the politicians don't want it.USDX Pushing Higher as Money Flows into Treasuries
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 6 hours ago
The following chart I put together is interesting in the sense that it
reveals exactly what is pushing the US Dollar Index Higher.
Normally, all things considered, the country which possesses the most solid
fundamentals in terms of monetary policy, economic growth rate, fiscal
policy and above all, YIELD or INTEREST PAID on its government debt, tends
to have the strongest currency. At least that is the way it formerly was.
These are broad principles and while there are always deviations, if two
countries were pretty evenly matched in terms of the first three factors,
the nation whi... more »
Terrible Chicago PMI number/10 yr uSA treasury falls to 1.57%/Challenge reports huge layoffs/High amounts of gold standing for delivery in June
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 7 hours ago
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down$1.60 to $1563.70. Silver was down 22 cents to $27.74.
Gold was heading northbound and then at 9:50 am : BANG!! Our bankers
showed up and down went gold and silver. Gold recovered somewhat and in
the end it was only down by $1.60. Silver fared worse as it was down
22 cents.
Today the Chicago's PMI index fell badly and this
Simon Johnson: Jamie Dimon and the Failure of the Nation
Belligerent Bears Batter BNI's 'Buffett-Black-Swan' Bet
Was it just a week ago
that we suggested buying Burlington Northern CDS (credit protection) as
the cheapest Black-Swan bet against Buffett and Bernanke's ebullience?
The answer is yes. And from the start of May the cost of protection has doubled from around 15bps to just over 30bps
- quite a surge as it seems more than a few funds thought this a
worthwhile trade to tuck in the back pocket at a minimal carry cost. At
32bps mid (31/34), it remains cheap still from a carry perspective and
while we are approaching the initial profit target, the reason for
buying this low cost, long vol trade is the huge convexity upside should things go a little more pear-shaped for the Octogenarian-of-Omaha
- or more specifically for the US equities in general. We do note that
if this keeps pushing past our other profit-targets then some should be
covered since counterparty risk will rapidly become an issue (unless the Fed officially becomes a CCP).
As the sovereign debt crisis in Europe dominates media coverage
of both financial and main street news, Washington’s deliberate cover up
of a far more serious threat to the global economy stemming from the
continuing crisis at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant (beginning on
Mar. 11, 2011) is now seeping out more rapidly from sources outside the
captured and complicit mainstream news outlets.
“You can’t stop the truth from leaking out about Fukushima, and [President] Obama actually came out with a statement at the start of this disaster and said that their nuclear experts did not feel that harmful levels of radiation would reach our shores,” Nuked Radio host Christina Consolo told TruNews.
Due to increasing reports of nuclear contamination found in pollen across the U.S. West Coast, babies with elevated becquerel levels of nearly 10 times normal (presumably from mother’s milk), and a statistically unusual number of children with flu-like symptoms who won’t respond to conventional medical protocol, the truth about Fukushima could easily break out into a national panic significant enough to trigger an economic collapse of the U.S. economy and dollar, according to Consolo.
Read More @ BeaconEquity.com
“You can’t stop the truth from leaking out about Fukushima, and [President] Obama actually came out with a statement at the start of this disaster and said that their nuclear experts did not feel that harmful levels of radiation would reach our shores,” Nuked Radio host Christina Consolo told TruNews.
Due to increasing reports of nuclear contamination found in pollen across the U.S. West Coast, babies with elevated becquerel levels of nearly 10 times normal (presumably from mother’s milk), and a statistically unusual number of children with flu-like symptoms who won’t respond to conventional medical protocol, the truth about Fukushima could easily break out into a national panic significant enough to trigger an economic collapse of the U.S. economy and dollar, according to Consolo.
Read More @ BeaconEquity.com
from Matlarson10:
Republican Party winning the battle but losing the war?
from RestoreConstitution8:
Is it any wonder global elite confab enjoys no media scrutiny?
by Steve Watson, Infowars:
MSNBC Teleprompter reader Lawrence O’Donnell has admitted he is “way
too lazy” to look into the activities of the elite Bilderberg Group
meeting in secret this weekend in Chantilly, Virginia. See the video here.
O’Donnell was asked about Bilderberg by We Are Change reporter Luke Rudkowski, who attempted to break through what can only be described as a wall of ignorance and cognitive dissonance to enlighten The Last Word host.
The as always mild mannered and polite Rudkowski attempted to explain to O’Donnell that Bilderberg is an annual meeting of most influential people on the planet.
“No its not” O’Donnell shot back, before adding “I have no idea what it is – so its not.”
When Rudkowski attempted to explain that last year’s meeting was held in Switzerland, O’Donnell said “That’s a lie. People are lying to you.”
When Rudkowski said he actually went to the location of the meeting to report on it, O’Donnell said “No you didn’t. You didn’t see a single media person go…”
Read More @ Infowars.com
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by Steve Watson, Infowars:
MSNBC Teleprompter reader Lawrence O’Donnell has admitted he is “way
too lazy” to look into the activities of the elite Bilderberg Group
meeting in secret this weekend in Chantilly, Virginia. See the video here.O’Donnell was asked about Bilderberg by We Are Change reporter Luke Rudkowski, who attempted to break through what can only be described as a wall of ignorance and cognitive dissonance to enlighten The Last Word host.
The as always mild mannered and polite Rudkowski attempted to explain to O’Donnell that Bilderberg is an annual meeting of most influential people on the planet.
“No its not” O’Donnell shot back, before adding “I have no idea what it is – so its not.”
When Rudkowski attempted to explain that last year’s meeting was held in Switzerland, O’Donnell said “That’s a lie. People are lying to you.”
When Rudkowski said he actually went to the location of the meeting to report on it, O’Donnell said “No you didn’t. You didn’t see a single media person go…”
Read More @ Infowars.com
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Focusing
on his supply-demand perspective of what drives stock prices and the
heavy volume of corporate selling combined with mutual fund outflows
that we have been so vociferous about, Charles Biderman of TrimTabs
provides color on why, just like in 2010 and 2011, markets sold off in
May. Whether you believe it is explicitly the angst-inspiring European
malaise, Facebook's flop, or US macro deterioration and a pending fiscal
cliff - the real driver is more shares chasing less cash as he puts it and reflexively the news exaggerates it or stalls it. Stock prices are likely to keep dropping,
no matter what, until the Fed announces the next stimulus/easing (as we
all know) but unfortunately this will have no impact on the real
economy (though stocks will pop). Biderman berates the Fed for its constant insistence that this time is different and as far as the election 'our policies will bring about sustainable recovery and jobs' promises we will hear from both candidates, he succinctly summarizes thus: 
One
of breakout standup routines from the late, great George Carlin
was his 1972 monologue “Seven Words You Can Never Say on Television.” In
the presence of polite company, I shall not repeat them… but rest
assured, the routine is still hilarious to this day. I wish I could say
the same about the Department of Homeland Security… I wish I could say
this is all a big joke… that the government’s “377 words you can never
use online” is just some stupid comedy routine. But it’s not. And you
just can’t make this stuff. After vigorous resistance, the Department
of Homeland Security was finally forced into releasing it’s 2011
Analyst’s Desktop Binder. It’s a manual of sorts, teaching all the
storm troopers who monitor our Internet activity all day which key
words to look for.
Well,
they sold in May but did they go away? If today is any guide, they did
as the swings across asset classes intraday were very reminiscent of 'death rattles'
with trading scenarios becoming more and more binary and more and more
extreme. Into the US macro data this morning risk assets in general
were behaving in a synchronized manner. As the dismal data hit, it got
wild with gold and stocks gapping down and Treasury yields crashing
lower (10Y 1.53 handle!) only to be saved around the European close by
chatter of IMF aid for Spain (funded by the selling of unicorn tears)
at which stocks erupted (and while bonds, the USD, and Gold also
reacted - they were far more muted). The afternoon was quiet until stocks
had a mind of their own and went on a stop-hunt up to yesterday's late
day highs (and that magical 1315 level) - pulling well away from any
other asset-class reality - only to fail dismally, ending with an
abrupt tumble back to sanity (just slightly in the red for the day)
grabbing VWAP into the close. The signals were everywhere that risk was not 'on' no matter how hard stocks tried with high-yield credit (most notably the ETFs) surging and purging ending with a terrible dive (after popping up to VWAP after our earlier note) on heavy volume.
So Facebook keeps falling, and is now floating around the $27 mark. We’re a third of the way down to my 
While
stocks, gold, and the dollar are generally in sync, Treasuries appear
modestly more bearish now (for stocks) but it is the high-yield bond ETFs that is making a few people nervous as they plunge on heavy volume
(and well below their intrinsic value). Obviously no-one really knows
what i going on at JPM, but fort some more color we note that IG9 10Y is
trading wider once again offered at 169bps - so one wonders if the
liquidity in HYG is allowing some unwinds (or more hedges to be laid
out). Certainly stocks remain ignorant of it for now - though month-end
may be impacting both.
While
it will be no surprise to any ZH reader (with our attention to Swiss
2Y rates) the world is undergoing a massive capital flight to safety.
Rick Santelli gave this topic his special treatment today, pointing out
that "capital is detouring - to avoid risk", and
outlining just how big a 'crash' lower in yields we have seen among
many of the supposedly safest sovereigns as money floods to safe-havens
(including UK, US, Japan, Germany, and Holland). What is most important
is that Rick outlines why we should care - when all around are yawning
on about how cheap 'dividend' stocks must be given low interest rates -
since it changes the nature of capital (the life-blood of our markets)
from risk-taking to absolute safety-seeking - as he points out that "it isn't necessarily about our own economy's numbers,
it isn't even about who we export to; it's the fact that if capital
continues to get somewhat impaired, you'll have more data points as
investors not only rethink about their capital but everybody rethinks everything in the capital structure that makes business go round."
As I write Wednesday at 12:05 PM EST, gold has rocketed from a $20/oz loss to a $5/oz gain while the “
What makes the current situation in gold and silver so transparent is
the narrative behind the markets. While the price propaganda in the
markets tells potential buyers to stay away, The Basel Committee for
Bank Supervision, part of the Bank for International Settlements,
considers making gold a Tier 1 capital asset for commercial banks up
from a Tier 3 asset.
With
any possible majority likely to be quite weak, and about two weeks to
go, the outcome of this second election remains highly uncertain. While
we're happy to leave the ever-changing chances of all the possible
government combinations to the Greek political commentators (or media
pollsters asking 1000 people), we think that the chances of a pro-bailout majority in parliament – at least for a short while – are slightly less than even at best. Morgan Stanley recently opined on the four possibilities with all centered on Syriza's actions.
With global stock markets recently under tremendous selling pressure,
today King World News interviewed highly acclaimed trader Dan Norcini.
Norcini correctly predicted the current downturn in global markets back
on May 11th and today he issued a further warning. But first, here is
what Norcini had to say about the recent action in the markets: “There
was a sea of red on the global stock markets today. We had a pretty
good hit in the Asian and European markets. This was followed by
downside action in the S&P and Dow, along with the Nasdaq.”
The
most significant event of yesterday was not the Spanish banking system
unlocking the door to the horror chamber and clicking the melt-down
button that it found on the wall but what happened at the European
Union. Brussels turned, and looking Berlin squarely in the eye, it used impolite words and gestures and essentially said: "Stick it." Brussels has now called for Eurobonds, has called for the ESM to
fund the European banks and it a sign of their new felt independence,
has thrown all of this squarely in the face of Germany, the
Netherlands, Finland et al who are providing the money. The game has changed.
It will no longer be push and shove and muddle through but convictions
and ideology that are in stark opposition so that surprises and
inflamed statements will become the order of the day and not the
exception. If it is to be either Germany for the Germans or Germany for
the citizens of Athens, make no mistake in your thinking; Berlin will prevail regardless of the outlying costs to either the nation or to the future of the Union that theoretically governs Europe.
It
seemed the 'but but but we're oversold' argument was holding up in
early trading in Europe as EURUSD, sovereign bonds, corporate and
financial credit, and stocks rallied out of the gate. It didn't take
long however for the 
Presented
with little comment - except to note the increasingly tight
relationship between the price of the long bond and the USD as we see 30Y Treasuries up 4.40% YTD vs ES +3.7% YTD
Down.
ES is testing 1300. Gold pushing back down to $1550 (and the rest of
the commodity complex plunging with WTI at $86.60), credit gapping
wider, Treasury yields plunging to new records (10Y <1.57%!! and 30Y
-20bps this week). FB -2.8%, AAPL -1.2% (down $12 from opening highs),
MS -1.3%. JPY below its 200DMA
In Part I, readers were presented with a list of the three trends
which overwhelm all other factors and fundamentals in the gold and
silver markets. The first and most dominant trend – the grossly
excessive printing of (worthless) paper currencies – was explained to
readers in detail.
Housing Inventory
Gold rose 0.38% or $6.00 in New York yesterday and closed at
$1,564.80/oz. However the 0.38% gain does not convey the positive price
action. This saw gold fall initially in unison with risk assets such as
equities and commodities – including oil.
Many argue that modern schooling has failed to achieve its goals. On
the contrary, it has been extremely triumphant. From students who can’t
read or add two and two to the brainwashed Marxist internationalists, it
is has been a resounding success.
The strongest and toughest creature out there, and maybe the smartest
one, that no one has been able to subdue yet, the inexplicable American
consumer has hit a wall. And it showed up in a prosaic but ugly ![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
