Thursday, May 10, 2012


Marc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching

When given the opportunity to expand on his thoughts, Marc Faber, of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report, provides dismally clarifying detail on the state of the world. In this excellent (must-watch on a day when nothing changed but European stocks dead-cat-bounced) Bloomberg TV interview, the admittedly ursine Faber reflects on the US (slowing of revenue growth and the real linkages to European stress) noting that unless we get a huge QE3, there will be "a crash, like in 1987" noting he believes we have seen the highs for the year; on the likelihood of QE3 (agreeing with us that the Fed won't act unless asset markets plunge first); on Greece's exit of the Euro and whether policy-makers can manage the exit properly "bureaucrats in Brussels and the media are brainwashing everybody that if Greece exited the euro, it would be a disaster. My view is the best would be to dissolve the whole euro zone"; on the difference between investment markets and economic reality (thanks to financial repression); and on the global race-to-debase "I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The bureaucrats in Brussels are completely useless functionaries".





S&P Opens The Pandora's Box: The Wall Of Refi Worry Is $46,000,000,000,000 Tall

In what S&P calls a 'Perfect Storm', the next four years will see a minimum of $30 trillion in companies' refinancing needs related to maturing bonds and loans and further they expect $13-$16 trillion more debt will be required to finance growth. With bond portfolios over-stuffed with corporate debt (since angst over sovereign risk has skewed asset allocation away from that cohort) the rating agency is concerned that ongoing bank deleveraging, these huge debt re-funding requirements, and the diminishment of central banks and governments to do anything about it leave serious problems with a credit overhang so large. Critically, especially as we hear calls for 'growth' plans from Europe, is the increasing likelihood that, as Reuters reports, this will potentially influence corporate credit quality and "alter the fragile equilibrium that currently exists in the global corporate credit landscape". While S&P expect the refinancing needs may well be met "This global wall of nonfinancial corporate debt will potentially compound the credit rationing that may occur as banks seek to restructure their balance sheets, and bond and equity investors reassess their risk-return thresholds" which "raises the downside risk in global markets" as an inability to finance growth may well be the catalyst for another risk flare. "Governments and central banks have less fiscal and monetary flexibility to prevent serious problems emanating from future market disturbances. A perfect storm scenario would likely cause financing disruptions even for borrowers that are not highly leveraged."








Full Letter From Greek "Anti-Bailout" Coalition Leader Tsipras To "The European Leadership"

Below is the letter that the man who will most likely be Greece's next premier sent out earlier today to "the European leadership" including Jean-Claude "I only lie when it is reeeeeealy important" Juncker, and Gollum Van Vompuy. According to local, pro-bailout Greek media, the tone is far more conciliatory than his remarks from the past few days. Well, it must be google-translated Greek to us, because we sure don't see much if any conciliation in the letter.





Anti-Bailout Coalition Soars In Popularity Ahead Of Second Greek Election


Now that the first parliamentary election vote is meaningless, with no party able to form a coalition government, everyone is focusing on the outcome of the next election, which will take place some time in mid-June. Minutes ago Marc and Alpha (via Reuters) released the results of a poll conducted on Tuesday but just published, and which, if sustained means major trouble for the EMU, because the results show that Anti-bailout Syriza is alone going to have almost as much represented as its two main pro-bailout opponents combined, and confirms that all the other parties are losing voters which instead are going toward the one party that seeks above all, to sever the terms of the Memorandum.








Fear we are returning to a time in history where it is a common occurrence to fight for one's life?

hedgeless_horseman
05/10/2012 - 10:22
A Guide for Those with Much Money and Very Little Patience Whom Want to Prepare for Zombie Apocalypse But Are Afraid to Google It For Fear of DHS Labeling Them A Terrorist.






Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops'

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
The push to cover silver and gold shorts late in the D-wave implies focused intention. Focused intention tends to precede breaking headline news that shocks both investors and the public. Headline: Citi’s Buiter: Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops' Call Street is starting to sound a little spooked. Citigroup [C 30.82 0.37 (+1.22%) ] on Wednesday issued a client note that just a few... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

"My Investing Model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy"

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 1 hour ago
*We are in the last innings of a very bad ball game. We are coping with the crash of a 30-year–long debt super-cycle and the aftermath of an unsustainable bubble *- David Stockman, interview linked below This interview by The Gold Report (http://www.theaureport.com/) is an excellent follow-up to my blog post from yesterday. In this, Stockman does a superb job explaining how the Fed manipulates the cost of money and the cost of debt and how Wall Street takes advantage of this through the use of insiders, like former Goldman Sachs partner Bill Dudley, who runs the NY Fed: The Fe... more » 
 

Kicking The Can Is The Only Option

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Debt, driven either by necessity or apathy, continues to rise while nearly 50% of Americans say they don't contribute to their retirement plans. Central planners kick the can down the economic road because it’s the only option at this point in the cycle. Severe austerity would cripple a large percentage of the public conditioned by decades of socialism. Headline: 49% of Americans aren't... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago

The derivative pile is massive, highly intertwined throughout the global financial system and will be protected at all cost. Headline: Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens MADRID – Spain's government will effectively nationalize the nation's fourth largest bank to shore up the hurting banking sector and try to convince investors the country doesn't need a bailout like... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




Guest Post: America's Hidden 8% Tax: Sickcare

You may think only European countries have VAT (value-added taxes), but America has one, too--it's just hidden in the sprawling "healthcare" system, i.e. sickcare. A value-added tax (VAT) is a broad-based consumption tax designed to raise tax revenues from across the entire economy. Since it's in everything you buy, you can't escape paying it unless you go to another country without a VAT. While the U.S. doesn't have an official VAT, it has an unofficial one that we all end up paying for indirectly: the 8% difference between what we pay for our bloated, fraud-ridden healthcare system and what our global competitors pay for their universal-care healthcare systems.




As New Greek Bonds Tumble To All Time Lows, Is Greece About To Re-Default In 5 Days?

Remember the "no brainer", "trade of the year"? Looks like all hell may be about to break loose as the trade of the year, becomes the mistrade of the decade...







Crude's Crash Conundrum Explained

For the third year in a row, crude oil prices have stumbled in April (-26% in 2010, -17% in 2011, and -10% in 2012 so far). Much has been made of the help this will offer the economy and consumer spending but this is ceteris-paribus linear thinking. There are a few other critical aspects to consider that make many, including Barclays, believe "there is little to the latest price action than the increasingly self-fulfilling prophecy of ‘sell it in May and go away’, exaggerated by market positioning, with broader macroeconomic concerns used as a lightening rod." With crude inventories on the high side and gasoline (and other oil product) inventories relatively low and falling - we would hold our breaths on the recent crude price drop funneling along to the retail pump price anytime soon as there is one critical aspect of the supply-demand equation that many have missed - a period of heavier-than-usual refinery maintenance which while temporary have reduced demand but tell us nothing about the state of final demand. In other words, even if a balance of sorts was achieved in terms of crude flows in March and April due to maintenance, that balance is likely to be disturbed from June onwards. The mainstream media is full of talking-heads on the chronic weakness in US oil demand, but it does not appear to be a real phenomenon according to the steadily improving flow of data and while Greece, Hollande, and US macro data has dragged out macro shorts, it would appear the fundamentals support oil prices higher from here. With the upward-sloping curve in crude to year-end and the relatively small drop this week (-1.2% only in WTI) despite all the derisking, perhaps the market is already starting to realize.




The ECB & Greece - Lender Of Last Retort Attitude Must Stop

The ECB seems to be quite happy to comment on Greece, and most of the comments seem to say that Greece isn’t doing their part.  Well, what about the ECB?  What have they been doing for Greece?  So far, not very much and I think they need to start to play nicely with their holdings.  If the ECB just plays nicely, at no cost to the ECB, the situation in Greece would improve quickly and dramatically.  The ECB must go from being a lender of last retort to a bona fide contributor to Greece and a true lender of last resort. Maybe the ECB should “Ask not what Greece can do for you, but what you can do for Greece”?




Michael Hudson and Pierre Rinfret: The Myth of Alan Greenspan

from Jesse’s CafĂ© AmĂ©ricain:
Although he is now passed away, and his internet site has been discontinued, economist Pierre Rinfret published some rather pithy descriptions of the people whom he had known during his long career as an economist in the commercial world, and the halls of power of the US government.    I was reminded of that today by the video from Michael Hudson which is included at the bottom.
Pierre Rinfret was a very good economist with a long and successful career, but made a fairly awful politician to say the least.  That is to say, he was not a politician at all, and why he ever let them talk him into his one fateful run at it is still a bit of a mystery to me.
He was famous for telling the economic truth, even when those in power did not want to hear it.  And he was outspoken, too much so for the pampered princes of politics and the media.   He himself was often naive I think, in believing that the truth would prevail even among those who were determined not to see it because it conflicted with their interests, and that those to whom he had been loyal would repay him in kind.  He was ‘set up’ to take a loss in his run for governor of NY.   But that was just politics and he had made quite a few enemies, especially amongst the emerging neo-conservatives who took control of his beloved Republican Party. 
Read More @ JessesCrossRoadsCafe.Blogspot.com

 

 


The Bernank Gets 75% Approval From Investors in Global Poll

[Ed. Note:If you're an active drug addict and someone offers you, for free, your drug of choice you will think they are the greatest person on earth.]
from, Bloomberg :
“There is no other choice than the U.S.,” Kenichi Katsuhara, a poll participant and credit default swap trader with Aozora Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, says in an e-mail. “Companies in the U.S. are chugging along” while consumers could benefit from a “drop in commodity prices.”
More investors expect oil prices to fall over the next six months than to rise, 35 percent to 31 percent, the first time that’s been the case since September. Respondents also are the most bullish on the U.S. dollar since September, when they were first asked about their investment intentions regarding the greenback. Close to two in five say they are adding to their dollar positions, while only about one in 10 are reducing them.
The IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose for an eighth day yesterday, its longest such streak since September, 2008. Oil prices fell in New York for a sixth day, the longest stretch of declines in almost two years.
Read More @ Bloomberg.com




Blythe & Her Parlor Boys: Silver Sees Overhead Resistance at $30, Sprott sees $50 Silver By Year’s End

from Silver Vigilante:

Silver was taken out back and slapped around a little bit behind the barn this morning leading into N.Y. open. The devil’s metal had its face in the dirt at about $28.90 before rocketing up to $29.40, showing significant strength between $29-$30.  This will bring it back down to the $29 number today, with the next serious resistance resting at $26.00.
The western banks were out in full force this morning showing the Chinese that this is their market and they will set the silver price through fiat, multilateral sell-offs.  Indeed there was excitement in the markets last night as the Shanghai Silver Exchange had its first days buoyed silver in Asia trading, but right at the New York open Blythe Masters had her army of parlor boys recently graduated from Ivy League do her bidding.  The $29.30 number the metal sat at throughout the night, and that is where it is sitting now. It is still early in the morning and I expect we could see a mid-morning sell-off, as $28.50 is the next manipuation target if Deboyyzz want silver down the memory hole.
Read these remarks by SGT Report on Eric Sprott’s recent appearance on mainstream media:
Read More @ SilverVigilante.com




Does The West Have A Future?

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, PaulCraigRoberts.org:
Living in America is becoming very difficult for anyone with a moral conscience, a sense of justice, or a lick of intelligence. Consider:
We have had a second fake underwear bomb plot, a much more fantastic one than the first hoax. The second underwear bomber was a CIA operative or informant allegedly recruited by al-Qaeda, an organization that US authorities have recently claimed to be defeated, in disarray, and no longer significant.
This defeated and insignificant organization, which lacks any science and technology labs, has invented an “invisible bomb” that is not detected by the porno-scanners. A “senior law enforcement source” told the New York Times that “the scary part” is that “if they build one, they probably built more.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that “the plot itself indicates that the terrorists keep trying to devise more and more perverse and terrible ways to kill innocent people.”
Read More @ PaulCraigRoberts.org




Dawn of Mysterious Thursday

by George Ure, UrbanSurvival.com:
(Vicksburg, MS) By the time you open your coffee and pour your computer, we should be heading back from our travels on what is turning into something of a “mysterious Tuesday” not so much because of what has happened so far, but because of all the events that seem to be in coincidence or prequel mode.
As we click into the pile of overnight headlines, it’s striking to see how much is plain old “odd.” Just as in wandering the floor of the casino here I was struck by how luck ruins in waves, so too the headlines have that kind of feel to them.
Some examples? Of course.
Several readers have commented on the untimely death of a (the) key witness to the death of webegade publisher Andrew Brietbart. Here’s an example:
Read More @ UrbanSurvival.com




LISTEN NOW – Stock Market to Tank, Buffett’s Ego, Gold, Collapse in Europe and More

from KingWorldNews:
Bill Fleckenstein: President of Fleckenstein Capital – Bill also writes a popular column ‘Contrarian Chronicles’ for MSN Money as well as the daily Market Rap column for his Web site at Fleckenstein Capital. He is often quoted in both national and international media. Bill has appeared at one time or another in virtually all financial media including Bloomberg, CNBC, The New York Times, MSN, Marketwatch, Barron’s and more. Bill is a highly sought after speaker, successful author of “Greenspan’s Bubbles” and has been in the financial sector for over 25 years.
Listen Now @ KingWorldNews.com




Spain Nationalizes BFA and 45% of Bankia; No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Bank Worth Less Than Zero; Der Spiegel: Germany Fears “Bottomless Pit”

by Mike Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis:
The implosion in Spanish banks continues. On Wednesday, Spain nationalized BFA, the 8th nationalization since the start of the crisis.
After sinking 3 billion into CatalunyaCaixa, Spain tried to privatize the mess but there were no offers at zero euros. Clearly CatalunyaCaixa bank is worth less than zero.
Meanwhile Der Spiegel reports “Bundesbank has no idea of what is happening in Spanish banks”. Mish readers do. The Spanish banking system is without a doubt bankrupt.
Let’s take a look at half a dozen articles courtesy of Google Translate.
Spain Nationalizes BFA
It’s official: Spain nationalizes BFA and control 45% of Bankia
Read More @ GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com




Shanghai, London & New York: An Evolving Silver Cartel or Opposing Interests As Shanghai Silver Exchange Opens?

from Silver Vigilante:
Optimistic silver investors are excited for the opening of the Shanghai silver exchange after heated coverage on manipulation of silver by keystone western banks in recent years. The mainstream press is calling the May 10 opening of the exchange a “diversification” in silver futures as the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) will commence trading silver contracts, thus allowing Chinese investors direct access to the market. But, a look into recent Chinese history shows there might be more collusion between the west and China than always meets the eye.
In the wake of the Hunt cornering of silver, U.S. and western banks held considerably profitable short positions in the metal. These shorts have been extremely profitable, albeit risky, all the way until silver spiked in the last 5-7 years. Though these shorts remain profitable, they have become riskier and more expensive. Keystone western banks – most cited are J.P. Morgan & H.S.B.C – short the price of silver by millions of ounces in terms of paper, by which the spot price of silver is set.  When the cartel is short the market 50,000 contracts of 5,000 ounces, which they have been in the past, a $1 move in the silver price puts millions of dollars on the line.
Read More @ SilverVigilante.com




Desperate Argentina Now Seen Begging for Oil Investment

from The Daily Bell:
Argentine Vice President Amado Boudou on Tuesday urged US companies to invest in YPF, the nationalized oil company that Argentina recently expropriated from Spain’s Repsol … “We are very optimistic in terms of what is coming for the Argentine economy in general and the hydrocarbons sector specifically” Boudou said at a Conference on the Americas at the US State Department in Washington. Far from scaring off foreign investment because of the expropriation, the government of President Cristina Fernandez has set the framework for “excellent opportunities for those who want to invest in joint ventures and possibilities of joint work in the energy sector,” he said. The Cristina Fernandez administration is gambling that the discovery in May 2011 of a giant oilfield in Argentina’s Patagonia would be too tempting for foreign oil giants to ignore. YPF needs the know-how and the capital to fully exploit the oil fields in the south-western Nequen province, known as Vaca Muerta (Dead Cow), which according to official estimates holds 150 million barrels of oil. YPF is “open to capital and the possibility of working together with public or private companies in Argentina or abroad,” Boudou said. – Merco Press
Dominant Social Theme: Don’t cry for Argentina. It’s all under control …
Free-Market Analysis: Are Argentina’s top officials having second thoughts about their expropriation of Spain’s Argentine oil-producer? It would seem that way from the above news report via Merco Press.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




Fed policy: where we stand

from, Gold Money:

Several weeks ago in this column I commented on the release of Federal Reserve minutes and the likelihood of further quantitative easing in the United States. While some of the Fed governors commented that further easing would not be necessary because of perceived strength in the economy, they did acknowledge that if the pace of economic recovery weakens then they would be prepared to support more QE. A lot has happened in the past few weeks so it is worth updating where we stand on this issue.
Last Friday the US government’s Bureau of Labor statistics report was released, showing that fewer jobs were created than the market was expecting. While the actual unemployment rate came down, this was more attributable to seasonal effects with a large number of jobless workers simply being removed from the labour force. John Williams of ShadowStats again calculates this past month’s unemployment at over 22% – if one counts the underemployed, as used to be the case – while the previous week’s GDP release also came in at a slower pace than was expected.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com




Germans warns Greece: no cuts, no aid

by Gergely Szakacs, Reuters:
Leading German politicians warned Greece on Tuesday that the country would not receive a cent more aid unless it fulfills all the conditions of its international bailout.

An election on Sunday in Greece failed to deliver a parliamentary majority for the two big pro-bailout parties, plunging the country into political limbo and increasing the risk that another vote may be required to resolve the impasse.

On Tuesday, the leader of the Left Coalition party, which benefited from rising anger over austerity to take second place in Sunday’s poll, declared Greece’s policy pledges under its EU/IMF rescue null and void.
Read More @ Reuters.com




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