Thursday, May 10, 2012

Is JPM Staring At Another $3 Billion Loss?

There are a lot of moving parts in the Dismal take of Dimon's demise. The starting point is that Bruno Iksil in the JPMorgan CIO Office, under the premise of hedging the bank's credit portfolio's tail risk had placed various tranche trades (levered credit positions with various risk profiles) in the only liquid tranche market that still exists - CDX Series 9 (an 'orrible portfolio of credits with an initial maturity at the end of 2012). These positions were low cost  (steepeners or equity-mezz) but needed a certain amount of day to day care and maintenance (adjusting hedges and so on). As the market rallied, the positions required increasing amounts of protection be sold to maintain hedges (akin to buying into a rally more and more as it rises). His large size in the market left a mark however that hedge funds tried to fix - that was his index trading was making the index extremely rich (expensive) relative to intrinsics (fair-value). That is where the media picked up the story and as we detail below leads us to today. Attempts to hedge his over-hedged positions and/or unwind them impacted the market too much and we suspect created the need for today's admission of guilt. And so, we find ourselves with - net CDS/CDO notionals remain huge (and implicitly on JPM's shoulders), his very recent lack of selling has left the credit index maybe 20bps rich to where it might trade given its rough correlation with the S&P 500 and this would imply at least $3bn of losses already in addition at fair-value. Of course, the situation is far worse because 1) any efforts to unwind such a huge position will lead to the market yawning wide and swallowing him in illiquid bid-ask spreads; and 2) the rest of the world knows their position - so why would the hedge funds not push their position. Note, it is not the instrument that caused this - it is the trader as "you don't hedge risk when you bet on momentum continuing you idiot!"




JPMorgan Reports $2 Billion Loss on Synthetic Positions

from Silver Doctors:
And a market snapshot of JP Morgan in after hours trading:
*Breaking
JPMorgan has just reported a $2 billion loss on synthetic credit securities (can you say Greek credit default swaps?). JPM is plunging in after-hours trading, down nearly 6%.
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com




GLD Custodian and Banking Giant HSBC is ‘a criminal enterprise’

Whistleblower makes damning case in video interview
by Jerome R. Corsi, WND
The global banking giant HSBC is a “criminal” operation, charges a former officer for the company’s southern New York region in a video interview with WND.
John Cruz, a former vice president and relationship manager, has turned over to WND more than 1,000 pages of documents, including customer account ledgers for dozens of companies through which, he charges, the financial institution was laundering money each month.
Cruz told WND that as a relationship manager, it was his responsibility to look up various accounts in the HSBC computer system and visit the account holders in person to offer additional banking products and services.
“I pulled these documents because I thought they were evidence of suspicious activity taking place,” Cruz affirmed when presented by WND with various HSBC computer ledgers of customer accounts. “These same documents I brought to bank security and my managers in the bank.”
To his surprise, HSBC management and security did not welcome his reports of suspicious activity.
Read More @ WND.com



20 Second Summary Of What Just Happened

What summarizes the clip below best:
A) Hubris; B) Greed; C) Stupidity; D) Moral Hazard; E) All of the above?







To Jim Grant The World Of Finance Is Nothing But The "Truman Show"

While we have heard a lot from Jim Grant recently - all pointedly correct and substantial - today marked the pinnacle of propaganda-brinksmanship. Explaining to Maria B just why the world in which she lives, Bernanke-lovers-all, is nothing but a hall of mirrors - a fake mirage - of the true reality thanks to central bank repression of all that we know about risk and return. "By changing interest rates, central banks change the perception of every asset class - so what seems cheap may not be cheap" as Grant notes that when you can fund investment at 0%, we are collectively being manipulated and moreover should try to realize - as an investing public - that we are Jim Carrey in The Truman Show. Of course the 75% of professional investors who believe Bernanke is doing a great job would prefer to stay inside the fake reality where their bonuses get paid and leveraged tranche losses get soaked up by some account transfer from the fed or loan loss provisioning adjustment - for the rest of us - wake up and smell the unreality. The money-honey pulls the blame and deflect card - noting the ECB are just as bad - but Grant brings her back to the reality that we are facing as he suggests being in the crowd who own Treasuries and Bunds when the next risk flare occurs will not end as well as many hope, preferring gold (and gold stocks) as a hedge as "The Gold move is not over".




JP Morgan losses send S&P 500 futures lower in Aftermarket

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago
This afternoon, after the markets regular closing, news came out that JP Morgan has suffered a $2 BILLION HIT in their trading division, apparently tied to wrong way bets on credit default swaps (what else of course). Just last evening I posted a chart detailing the significance of the 1350 level in the S&P 500 index. The Morgan news has sent the index reeling and back down BELOW this level in the reopening. Note that each time the index has fallen below this level, it has managed to recover before the bell rings that marks the end of the day's trading. If we go into Friday and this... more » 
 

China's industrial production rises/France and Greek industrial production fall badly/Greek unemployment rises to 21.7%/


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up today up by $1.40 to close the comex session at $1695.10.  Silver fell by 14 cents to finish at $29.14. Today, we got numbers from China's industrial production and it was pretty good followed by its surplus of exports over imports.  However both nominally both exports and imports were down which foreshadows problems for this great exporting




Dismal Metals Sentiment – Just What Bernanke Ordered

by Jeff Lewis, SilverBearCafe.com:
Since the dramatic drops the silver market saw in May and September of last year, prices in the precious metals market have been suffering from an excess of negative sentiment. This adverse perception is weighing on metal prices and keeping investor demand at bay.
Furthermore, although investors have continued to buy physical silver, the overall quantity being purchased has declined significantly, resulting in reduced support for the metal’s price.
Nevertheless, the supply of silver is naturally limited by the quantity existing in the Earth’s crust, despite ever growing industrial applications for the metal and rising price inflation. This key combination of factors still provides a strong fundamental basis for continuing to hold silver over the long term.
Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com




More Baby Steps For China…

from Chuck Butler, Casey Research:
I don’t know what the markets think when they flock to dollars and yen, the two big dogs when it comes to debt creation. But it is what it is… and so we carry on, and look for other things that make sense!
Like the Chinese buying Eurozone Gov’t debt… I explained this all previously, but for those of you new to class… The Eurozone is China’s largest export destination… Did that surprise you? I bet you thought it was the U.S…. But no, it’s the Eurozone… Well, China is making progress with its attempt to switch from being a country that depends wholly on exports to drive its economic growth, to one that shares the load of driving the economy with domestic demand, but… they aren’t there just yet, and therefore, exports remain very, very important to the Chinese… Therefore, they cannot afford to lose their biggest customer…
And this is part of the plan, folks… China’s plan to replace the dollar standard.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com




Fed clears China’s first US bank takeover

from, Sydney Morning Herald
The United States on Wednesday opened its banking market to ICBC, China’s biggest bank, for the first time clearing a takeover of a US bank by a Chinese state-controlled company.
Just days after high-level US-China economic talks in Beijing, the Federal Reserve approved an application from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to buy a majority stake in the US subsidiary of Bank of East Asia.
The transaction will make ICBC the first Chinese state-controlled bank to acquire retail bank branches in the United States.
ICBC has been the most aggressive of China’s “big four” banks in expanding overseas.
According to the Fed the bank has total assets of roughly $US2.5 trillion.
Read More @ SydneyMorningHearld.com.au




Shadow Government Would Thrive With Romney as President

by Brandon Turbeville, Activist Post
Anyone who has watched even a single 2012 Republican Primary debate should be aware by now that there is has been an unshakeable commitment by virtually every candidate to the colonial “state” of Israel. Although Ron Paul’s position on Israel is somewhat more tempered than that of his Republican counterparts, not one of the other candidates is capable of even remotely criticizing Israel or its acts of aggression and oppression throughout the region.

The same situation exists for the Democrats as their incumbent candidate, Barack Obama, has already proven himself to be one of the most ardent and willing supporters of whatever decision is made by the Israeli government and the hidden hand behind it. Read More @ Activist Post




How Much Is Your Coin Worth?

by Whiskey, Whiskey and Gunpowder:
“In this exclusive Whiskey and Gunpowder video we’ll explore the value of U.S. coins – past and present – and show you why nickels are a solid investment. Most U.S. coins are worth nothing in melt value. The nickel is the one coin left in circulation that is worth more than its face value. Now is the time to begin hoarding nickels before their metal content is debased and they become worthless.”

How Much Is Your Coin Worth? from Agora Financial on Vimeo.




Bankster Power by Ron Paul

by Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell.com:
United States House of Representatives, Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy & Technology, May 8, 2012
Although it has taken nearly a century, it seems that the entire spectrum of the American political establishment has finally realized the destructive power of the Federal Reserve System. Whether left, right, or libertarian, politicians are lining up to attack Ben Bernanke and the Fed’s destructive monetary policy. Where there is disagreement or lack of understanding, however, is on why the Fed’s monetary policy is destructive, how it harms the economy, and what should be done about it. Today’s hearing will examine the various proposals that have been put forth both to mend and to end the Fed. It is my hope that this hearing will spur a vigorous and long-lasting discussion about the Fed’s problems, a discussion which will lead to concrete actions once and for all to rein in the Fed.
Much confusion exists over what the Federal Reserve System actually is. Some people claim that is a secret cabal of elite bankers, while others claim that it is part of the federal government. In reality it is a bit of both. The Federal Reserve Board is a government agency, while the Federal Reserve Banks are privately-run government-chartered institutions, and monetary policy decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee, which has members from both the Board and the Reserve Banks.
The Federal Reserve System is the epitome of crony capitalism.
Read More @ LewRockwell.com




Europe’s Voters Say “No” to Economic Reality

by Detlev Schlichter, Whiskey and Gunpowder:

“Europe fights back against austerity” was how The Daily Telegraph headlined its weekend election coverage. “Anti-austerity movements are gathering pace across Europe following political earthquakes in France and Greece. A total of 12 European governments have now been dismissed in three years.”
As the European welfare state is officially in its death-throes none of us should be surprised if political strife gets cranked up to eleven. I firmly expect that we will see much more of this in the future. While I can understand the anger of the electorate and sympathize with the sense of desperation and foreboding, I cannot, however, consider the electoral choices of the weekend particularly enlightened. They do not reflect a coherent, let alone intelligent strategy as the Daily Telegraph headline seems to imply.
If those who ‘won’ the election deliver on their promises, economic disintegration will only accelerate. What is being offered in terms of ‘solutions’ is a dangerous assortment of economic poisons, more suitable to describe the European disease than provide a recipe for stronger growth.
Read More @ WhiskeyAndGunpowder.com




RBI gets HC notice to explain gold deposits with Bank of England

by Dinesh Thite, Pune Mirror
According to Raghunath Kelkar, the Reserve Bank of India is bound to keep excess gold in its reserves, not deposit outside the country; despite summons, RBI rep fails to appear in court.
Atechnocrat-turned-public interest litigant Raghunath Shankar Kelkar has challenged the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) move to deposit 265.49 tonnes of gold out of its total stock of 557.75 tonnes abroad by filing a public interest litigation (PIL) in the Bombay High Court and demanded that the precious metal be brought back into the country, according to the provisions of the law.
Kelkar (56), who used to manufacture computers, has filed the petition as he found the move by the apex bank in contradiction to the section 33(5) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934, which stipulates that 85 per cent of its gold reserves should be kept in India.
Read More @ PuneMirror.in




Tajikistan’s Pakrut Gold deposits contain 113 tons of gold

from Bullion Street:
NEW DELHI: Tajikistan’s largest Pakrut gold deposit is estimated to have at least 113 tons of gold reserves, according to British miner Kryso Resources.
The British company, developing Tajikistan’s largest gold deposit plans to produce its first gold by the end of this year or early 2013.
The gold deposit lying on a steep mountain slope 110km northeast of Dushanbe incorporates three ore clusters estimated at 1m ounces of gold, possibly even more.
Kryso plans to extract 660,000 tonnes of ore per year until 2017, and then double annual extraction to 1.32m tonnes. In spring 2010, Kryso increased its estimate of the Pakrut reserves by 33% to 111.3 tonnes of gold at a minimum possible concentration of 0.5g per tonne of ore.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com




Potential false flag at Chicago NATO summit

from EndtheLie:



Is The Food We Eat Killing Us?

from The Economic Collapse Blog:
Are we digging our own graves with our teeth? Is the food that we eat every day slowly killing us? When I was growing up, I just assumed that everything in the grocery store was perfectly safe and perfectly healthy. I just assumed that the government and the big corporations were watching out for us and that they would never allow something harmful to be sold in the stores. Boy, was I wrong! Today, the average American diet is extremely unhealthy. Most of the foods that we all love to eat are absolutely packed with things that will damage our health. Many of the ingredients that make our foods “taste good” such as fat, salt and sugar can be extremely damaging in large amounts. On top of that, most processed foods are absolutely loaded with chemicals and preservatives. The next time you go to the grocery store, just start turning over packages and read the “ingredients” that are being put into our food. If you have never done this before, you will be absolutely amazed. In many of our most common foods there are “ingredients” that I cannot even pronounce. Sadly, most Americans have no idea that eating a steady diet of these processed foods will likely leave them massively overweight, very sick and much closer to death.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com




More Emergency Evacuation Shelters Being Setup Outside Chicago

from Off Grid Survival:
For the last couple weeks a number of reports have been leaking out of Chicago about the possible evacuation of Chicago Residents during this months NATO summit. From the Illinois Department of Transportation testing an emergency plan to block highways out of downtown Chicago to the military conducting urban warfare drills in downtown Chicago, many residents are starting to wonder exactly what the government is expecting.
This morning CBS News in Chicago reported that another emergency evacuation site has been confirmed, this time at Benedictine University in DuPage County.
The Dupage County Red Cross confirmed that they were asked to prepare a number of evacuation sites including Benedictine University. The college campus is being prepared to take as many as 1000 evacuees but Red Cross says they are also in the process of prepping a number of other locations.

Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com




The city that represents the future of Brazil

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :
Florianopolis is gorgeous. The weather is excellent. Cost of living is much lower than in nearby Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo. It’s safe. It’s connected, with nonstop flights to major cities in Brazil, as well as the region– Buenos Aires, Santiago, Montevideo.
The biggest reason to come here, though, is that Florianopolis represents Brazil’s future, probably more than any other city. This is saying a lot given that Brazil itself represents the future of the west.
It’s a young, intensely energetic place.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com




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