Friday, May 25, 2012

Presenting The Greatest ROI Opportunity Ever


The dream of virtually anyone who has ever traded even one share of stock has always been to generate above market returns, also known as alpha, preferably in a long-term horizon. Why? Because those who manage to return 30%, 20% even 10% above the S&P over the long run, become, all else equal (expert networks and collocated flow-frontrunning HFT boxes aside), legendary investors in the eyes of the general public, which brings the ancillary benefits of fame and fortune (usually in the form of 2 and 20). This is the ultimate goal of everyone who works on Wall Street. Yet, ironically, what most don't realize, is that these returns, or Returns On Investment (ROI), are absolutely meaningless when put side by side next to something few think about when considering investment returns.
Namely lobbying.





Niall Ferguson: "Greece Is The Symptom Not The Cause"

In a brief clip from a lengthier discussion between historian Niall Ferguson and ex-Greek PM George Papandreou at this week's Zeitgeist conference, the effusive Englishman lays out perfectly what many are missing with regard to Europe: "Greece is not the problem - it is a symptom of a much more profound malaise that affects the entire monetary union." - just as Lehman Brothers was not the 'cause' of the US's problems. The wasted energy spent moralizing about the 'work habits' of Mediterranean citizens as being the problem is incorrect as this is a European-wide problem - a systemic crisis of European banking and public finance. Papandreou pipes in by noting, in typical toe-the-line manner, that Germany must swerve (in the game of chicken) or there is a major danger of disintegration because "there will be contagion".





Demand for Business Equipment in U.S. Declines in April

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 6 hours ago

An important trendline of the 2009 recovery has failed. While the break suggests caution towards future economic growth, the transition from expansion to contraction could take months to unfold. Chart: Real Business Core Capital Spending: Real or CPI-Adjusted New Orders of Durable Goods ex. defense and aircraft (RBCCS) and YOY Change Headline: Demand for Business Equipment in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




Solt Griechenland Weiter Am Euro Beteiligt Bleiben: Then And Now


On any other occasion, we would translate this title from the German into English, however at this point in the European lifecycle it is self-explanatory. A poll was conducted by Germany's ZDF today, asking many questions, but this one above all. The answers were then compared to a similar poll conducted six months ago. It is pretty clear which way Germany is leaning (certainly not the one suggested by a very clueless Peter Mandelson during the Munk Debates).




Munk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" - Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today's Most Critical Issue

Today's most exciting piece of financial analysis and debate has been conveniently saved until early evening, when courtesy of BNN's "Munk Debates" we will get a great discussion on the number one topic of the times: whether the European experiment has failed. Arguing for the argument will be famed historian Niall Ferguson as well as Josef Joffe, while the contra side will be defended by Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Peter Mandelson. Courtesy of BNN: "In the sweep of human history, the European Union stands out as one of humankind's most ambitious endeavors. It encompasses half a billion people, twenty-seven member states, twenty-three languages and an economy valued at over $15 trillion. Modern Europe's stunning achievements aside, its sovereign debt crisis has shaken the world's largest political and economic union to its core. Can the federal institutions and shared values of Europeans meet the challenges of debt crisis that are as much political as economic? Or, are Europe's current woes indicative of a series of deep structural faults that will doom the European Union to breakup and failure?"




Keynesianism & Eugenics

While eugenicists and Keynesians make correct descriptive observations — like the fact that certain qualities and traits are inheritable, or more simply that children are like their parents — their attempts to use the state as a mechanism to control these natural systems often turns out to be drastically worse than the natural systems that they seek to replace. As Keynes seems to admit when — in the German language edition of his General Theory — he noted that the conditions of a totalitarian state may be more amenable to his economic theory, the desire for control may be the real story here. Keynesianism brings more of the economy under the control of the state. It is a slow and creeping descent into dependency on the state. As we are seeing in Europe today, cuts in state spending in a state-dependent economy can cause deep economic contraction, providing the Keynesian more confirmation for his idea that the state should tax more, and spend more. That is, until nature intervenes. Just as a state-controlled eugenics program might well spawn an inbred elite suffering hereditary illnesses as a result of a lack of genetic diversity, so a state-controlled economy may well grind itself into the dirt as it runs out of innovation as a result of a lack of economic diversity. Such a situation is unsustainable — no planner is smarter than nature.




Borowitz Goes For The FaceBook Trifecta

FaceBook is now not only the worst (from an investor standpoint) large IPO in the past decade, but by the time Andy Borowitz is done with it, it will also be the funniest. Today, having previously presented the world with the "adjusted" letter from Zuck, and introduced PhoneBook, Borowitz gives us the low down on the Facebook founder's own post-mortem.








Presenting How Carl Icahn Accumulated A 7.5% Stake In Chesapeake In 18 Days, And His Letter To The CHK Board

Recall when Zero Hedge said two weeks ago that in the age of ZIRP, corporate balance sheets simply do not matter. The reason for that conclusion were of course the endless public debates over whether Chesapeake's massively overlevered capital structure would lead to its demise. Our view was that while balance sheets certainly matter in a normal market, one not dominated by central planning and endless hunger for yield, in the new ZIRP normal, none of the old school metrics of solvency, viability or even profitability matter. One person who appears to have agreed with our assessment, and put his money where his mouth is, or $775MM more specifically, is none other than legendary corporate raider Carl Icahn, who minutes ago announced that funds controlled by Icahn have raised their stake in CHK to 7.56%, making him the second biggest holder of the stock, and in a letter just sent to the CHK Board, in rather angry tones, demanded 2 board seats for his own representatives and 2 for Chesapeake's largest shareholder Southeastern Asset Management. Below we chart just how it is that beginning on April 19 at a price of $18.03, Icahn's funds accumulated over a period of 18 days, a total of 49.4 million shares of stock at what appears to be a Volume Weighted Average Cost of $15.70/share, meaning that as of the stock spike on this announcement he is currently in the money.




Equities At Lowest Close Of Week As Reversion To Reality Reappears

S&P 500 e-mini futures closed at 415ET today at 1314.75 which is the lowest close of the week, with Monday's surge providing all the juice for what seemed a hope-driven rumor-ridden few days.Tough day today for recent darlings of the dumpfests FB and JPM - as the former tested back towards 31 the figure and the latter retraced all its post-Wednesday-ECB-rumor-ramp gains - before a late pop helped it out (-1.5% today). Volume was expectedly low and average trade size equally dimsally low as yesterday. Stocks repeated the same pattern today, retracing all of their late-day-ramp gains and reverting back to credit's reality but we note that HYG was a significant underperformer today - as credit markets went dead into the last hour. For the week, commodities have seemingly regrouped from mid-week dispersion but are generally lower (despite a positive last couple days for Gold and Silver) but are outperforming the implied weakness from a 1.6% gain in the USD on the week as EURUSD went out at its lows around 1.25. Slow day with only Utilities managing gains in stocks today but Gold and Silver appeared to be the beat-adjusted winners as them and the USD gain from Europe's fears. Interestingly Gold and Stocks recoupled by the close - beta-adjusted, with USD and Treasuries pointing to lower risk asset prices. And as an FYI - Facebook's VWAP post-IPO is now $37!




Friday Humor Part 2 - The (Insolvent) World According To Angela

Because maybe, just maybe, the woman tasked with bailing out Europe would at least know where it is.








About That European Stress Test, 2011 Edition... And Where The Pain In Spain Is Raining Next


Back when Dexia was nationalized in the fall of 2011, one of the running jokes was that it was the bank that had one of the highest grades in the European Stress Test conducted just months prior. Here is another joke: we now know that Spain's Bankia is the next major financial institution which is being nationalized, and whose bailout costs are literally growing by the hour. Was Bankia one of the Stress Test 2011 failures? Why of course not...  But 5 other Spanish banks were.




Mark Grant And Rick Santelli On Europe's 'Bond-Turned-Bank'-Run

We have discussed the realities of Spanish (and Italian and Portuguese and Greek) debt to GDP data relative to the official estimates a number of times over the past few months and just as Mark Grant tells Rick Santelli today, the sugar buzz of self-financed sovereign bond buying hides the truth - until now when that liquidity is fading. From inaccurate data to LTRO ineffectiveness, 'Grantelli' sum it up nicely as  the 'Bond Run' we have seen over the past few months (as professionals flee European banks and sovereigns) has now trickled down to the man-in-the-street and their equivalent - the bank-run.




Gold Up. Silver Up. USD... Up?

Is this the overwhelming exodus of 'real-not-synthetic' Euros finding safety? Or just an aberration? It seems yet another event-risk-driven divergence is occurring as different asset-classes seem to be disagreeing over who will do the printing (when, not if, they print) and whether the mattress or barbarous relics offer most protection.

 

 

FaceBomb Is Officially The Worst Large IPO Of The Decade

In celebration of the one-week anniversary of FaceBomb's ultimate #Fail, Bloomberg TV is reporting that Facebook's first week of trading is the worst large IPO performance in a decade (aside from the BATS debacle -which lasted nanoseconds and potentially never really IPO'd) - well played Margin Stanley, well played! And for those that like to see the spectacle in all its glory, NANEX has provided a graphical view of the chaos as FacePlant came and went last Friday...




Marc Faber Sees 100% Probability Of Global Recession In 2013

From around two minutes into this CNBC clip, Marc Faber brings the conversation back into sharp focus. Noting that "whenever everybody focuses on just one thing - Greece and Europe in this case - there are other things that are far more important - such as a meaningful slowdown in India and China - going on that are being ignored". But remaining on the topic of Europe, Faber consistently opines that the next event risk will be the Greek exit - even though Faber suspects strongly that Germany will cave to Eurobonds eventually - as he comments that the longer the delay of a restructuring/default/exit/euro-bonds takes the higher the probability of a gigantic systemic failure. This subject brings up (at around 3:30) an interesting perspective that the European market would be oddly relieved (not plunging 50%) if Greek exited the Euro as there would be some clarity (though Faber adds that bank and insurance stocks would likely be crushed). At five minutes in though, Faber ramps up the rhetoric noting that while stock indices are not performing terribly, there are many economically sensitive (and luxury) stocks that are down very significantly - which suggests to him that the huge asset price run of the last decades in come to an end prompting the question of the day from CNBC's Cramer-stand-in "You're not looking for a recession in the US are you?" Faber, in his calm, thoughtful way responds, "I think we will have a global recession late this year, early next year", to which a stunned Wapner asks for odds (surely 30%, 50%?) of this recession - "100% certainty" comes the reply to leave Wapner throwing in the towel on any positive spin as Faber suggests the only 'investment' in this case is 'Cash USD' and investors must own some gold.




USTBond Tower of Babel Teeters

by Jim Willie CB Gold Seek:
The Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com




LaRouchePAC: The Rebellion

With voting results in Greece and the German NRW state elections, and those of the West Virginia primaries, Kentucky, and Arkansas, there should be no reason to believe that the masters of Barack Obama cannot be defeated. The circumstances are ripe for dramatic changes. That can come about for better or for worse. We, must determine which pathway civilization will walk.








Reggie Middleton breaks down “Muppetology,” Face Ripping IPO’s, and the Chinese Wall!

from CapitalAccount:

It’s been a week since Facebook’s disastrous debut. The stock didn’t even get that initial pop that we have been so used to. Now we’ve seen shareholder lawsuits, subpoenas, not to mention a whole lot of mind-numbing news coverage in what was an overvalued IPO price. But why did so many people miss this in the first place, even though there was plenty of evidence to suggest that this was a deal only for the biggest of muppets? Could muppetology help us figure this out? Reggie Middleton will be on Capital Account today to give us a few lessons. Remember, he laid out all of the problems with Facebook’s valuation on this show long before the IPO, so he is just the man to help us figure out what exactly the big investment banks like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley missed on this one.

And muppetology aside — this Facebook case may illustrate some problems with another funny wall street term: Chinese Wall. Chinese Wall refers to the hypothetical barrier that is supposed to exist on Wall Street, separating research analysts from investment bankers. Remember, Washington tore down this wall entirely in some cases with the mis-named “Jobs Act,” but not many independent analysts worth their salt believe that it ever was not compromised to begin with. Reggie Middleton should know. He has been going toe to toe with analysts on that wall, blasting their research and punching holes right through their bogus analysis.
And with all these terms floating around today, we thought it would be perfect to bring back our popularly demanded “Word of the Day” segment. Today’s Word is, appropriately enough, “Herd Mentality.” After all, if you think as part of the herd, you are gonna end up a muppet with your face torn off. Maybe the Facebook IPO should have been called “Faceoff IPO?”


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Digital Hindenburg: MorganStanley To Adjust Share Prices in Soviet-Style Public Offering of Facebook

from Silver Vigilante:
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney is taking the Facebook stock by the balls. In the wake of a corrupt initial public offering that left the U.S. stock market more precarious than hitherto, the world’s largest brokerage decreed to its financial advisers yesterday that it will “adjust prices” on thousands of trades “to ensure outstanding limit orders to sell will be filled at no more than $42.99 a share for Facebook stock” from last Friday’s dismal initial public offering. From Reuters:
According to several of the advisers, [Andy] Saperstein [head of wealth management at Morgan Stanley’s Smith Barney unit], said that the company has been manually reviewing each trade and the time it was executed, and that he stressed that the company is putting the clients’ interests first.
In the interest of his clients, Saperstein did not field a single question during the call, which began at 4 p.m. EDT and lasted ten minutes, according to two sources. He did not apologize and told brokers to follow procedure.
Read More @ SilverVigilante.com




Ron Paul: Lawyers Confirm All Delegates Are Unbound!


 



James Turk: Escalating Bank Runs, Many Banks Will Not Survive

from KingWorldNews:
With mounting fears regarding escalating bank runs around the world, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk told KWN, “I think people should be worried because many banks around the world are largely insolvent.” Here is what Turk had to say about the accelerating crisis: “The key driver of course is the economy. Unemployment is still growing in most places around the world. The European economy, in nearly all countries, is turning down. Germany had been the power horse up until recently, pulling other countries along with it. But even the German economy is turning down.”
James Turk continues @ KingWorldNews.com




How to Unscramble an Egg

by Bob Moriarty, 321Gold.com:
On May 6th, this month, France and Greece held national elections. They are, after all, both democracies and in the true spirit of mob voting, they voted against cutting spending and voted for more benefits. Democracy is at its heart the mob voting to steal from those who have, to give to themselves.
Basically the French and Greeks voted to continue to spend like drunken sailors and to allow Germany to bail them out once more. I may do a disservice to drunken sailors because even drunken sailors stop spending when they run out of money.
Germany, of course, was thrilled. Good luck with that, guys.
Creating the EU and the Euro was much like scrambling an egg.

Read More @ 321Gold.com




Murfreesboro cafe shut down by state tax agency

from Samantha E. Williams, The Tenessean:
Wednesday morning started like any other at the iconic diner in downtown Murfreesboro, according to Scott Perkins, owner of the iconic City Cafe.
Just after 9 a.m., however, diners and employees were asked to vacate the business and a sign was posted on the window, designating that it had been closed by issue of the Tennessee Department of Revenue, Tax Enforcement Division for uncollected taxes.
“These men came in with badges around their necks and kicked my customers out. It was like a police raid,” Perkins said of the proceedings Wednesday morning.
Read More @ tennessean.com




Japanese Debt Downgraded by Fitch; No Urgency for Japan (Until Sudden Panic Hits)

by Mike “Mish” Shedlock, The Daily Bell:
With Japan’s public debt about to hit 240% of GDP, Fitch Downgrades Japan’s Sovereign Rating.
The ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday lowered its assessment of Japan’s sovereign credit to A+, an investment grade just above the likes of Spain and Italy, and criticized Tokyo for not doing more to pare down its burgeoning debt.
Japan’s public debt will hit almost 240 percent of its gross domestic product by the end of the year, Fitch warned.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




Grexit Fear Factor: Berlin to sail on sea of Greek misery

from RussiaToday:

Implications of ‘irreplaceable gold’ becoming Tier 1 banking asset

by Richard (Rick) Mill, Mineweb
If the Basel Committee agrees to banks using gold as Tier 1 Capital it would create substantial demand for physical bullion and be an important step toward gold’s re-monetization.
Institutional investors tend to prefer investments that are thought to contain the potential for growth, growth = sprouts. An investment has to produce a growing revenue stream – if it doesn’t grow it doesn’t compound. Gold is rejected as an investment because it doesn’t produce sprouts, meaning the steady income and systematic growth so sought after by institutional investors just isn’t there.
Gold performs two jobs that fiat currencies, or any other financial innovation, cannot do; gold acts as a safe haven in times of turmoil – to escape Nazi Germany, or buy food and water in a crisis. Perhaps even more important, gold, for the last couple of thousand years has acted to preserve your purchasing power. In 1913 (the year the US Federal Reserve was born) the US dollar was well a dollar, gold was US$20 an ounce. Today, at almost the 100 year anniversary of the Fed the dollar has lost 95 percent of its purchasing power and gold is $1600 an ounce.
Read More @ MineWeb.com




Operators Admit Fukushima Radiation Levels Exceed 2 1/2 Times Announced

by Anthony Gucciardi, Infowars:
Fukushima plant operators are now admitting that the Fukushima radiation levels emitted from the disaster exceeds almost two and a half times the initial ‘estimate’ produced by Japanese safety regulators. The announcement comes after independent researchers exposed the true amount of radiation leaked from the plant back in October of 2011. The study revealed that significantly more radioactive caesium was released into the atmosphere as a result of the Fukushima explosion than many nuclear experts previously told the public.
Fukushima Radiation Levels: A Cause for Concern
The researchers from this study went against the official explanations (now confirmed as bogus by the operators themselves), and stated that the amount of radioactive isotope caesium-137 released at the height of the crisis was equivalent to 42% of that from Chernobyl.
Read More @ Infowars.com




Could the Global Derivatives Market Tip Over?

by David Chapman, Gold Seek:
The picture is rather stark. This is a chart shown in an article at Global Research (www.globalresearch.ca) – Financial Implosion: Global Derivatives at 1,200 Trillion Dollars 20 Times the World Economy. It bears repeating.
Specifically the chart shows the assets of five of the USA’s largest banks vs. their respective derivative position. Derivatives dwarf the asset position of the banks. Wachovia and HSBC (USA) are not even amongst the top five derivative players in the US. The top five in order are JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. There is a huge drop off in derivative positions after the top five players.
The global derivatives market is estimated by some at $1,200 trillion ($1.2 quadrillion). Estimating the size of the market is difficult. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows a size of $647 trillion as of December 2011. However, some market followers who have written books on the subject have estimated the market as being even larger at upwards of $1.2 quadrillion. At that level it is 20 times the size of the global economy estimated at $60 to $70 trillion.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com




U.S. Army General: The Whole Northern Hemisphere is at Risk of Becoming Largely Uninhabitable

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
You may have entertained the idea of an improbable civilization ending events such as a ‘global killer’ asteroid, earth crust displacement or massive solar storms, but what if there existed a situation right now that was so serious that it literally threatened our very existence?
According to a host of scientists, nuclear experts and researchers, were are facing exactly such a scenario – and current efforts may not be able to stop it.
When the Fukushima nuclear plants sustained structural damage and a catastrophic failure of their spent fuel cooling systems in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, it left the government of Japan, Tokyo Power and nuclear regulatory agencies around the world powerless to contain the release of deadly radiation. A year on, the battle for control of Fukushima continues to no avail.
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com




Presenting JPM’s Uber-Prop Trading Desk: Meet The SIO Inside The CIO

from Zerohedge:
Remember when Jamie Dimon told the world the CIO stories were a “tempest in a teapot” during the firm’s Q1 conference call the very same day we accused the CIO of being the world’s biggest prop desk (aside from the Fed of course) and that the JP Morgan was merely “hedging” its positions? It appears that just like Vegas, it’s the lie that keeps on giving. Because as it turns out in addition to being a massive undisclosed loss leader courtesy of ‘unlimited downside’ CDS pair trades (anyone remember DB employee Boaz Weinstein?) which have yet to be unwound, and which may have a total book loss of up to or over $31.5 billion as explained before, that was merely the tip of the prop-trading iceberg. The WSJ reports: “The JPM unit whose wrong-way bets on corporate credit cost the bank more than $2 billion includes a group that has invested in financially challenged companies, including LightSquared Inc., the wireless broadband provider that this month filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The group within the CIO doing the distressed equity investing is known as the Special Investments Group. Whether it should be part of the CIO in the future is something that Matt Zames, who was put in charge of the CIO this month after the losses were disclosed, is evaluating, according to a person familiar with the bank. He is also examining whether the bank should keep some of these investments, the person said… The Special Investments Group last year took a $150 million stake in closely held LightSquared, in a deal that J.P. Morgan lost money on, according to a person familiar with the bank.” But, but, surely they were hedging their offsetting position in er, uhm, non-satellite, telegraph stocks? In yet other words, an SIO within the CIO… once again Wall Street’s only value added shines through – baffle them with acronym-based bullshit. And of course, everyone is busy hedging, hedging, the firm’s other positions… Or not: as these are pure play directional prop bets. And all are funded by, you guessed it, your deposit dollars. Which one day will go boom, when JPM suffers a loss so large that not even the Fed bails them out any more (Jon Corzine anyone?).
Read More @ Zerohedge



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