Friday, May 18, 2012

Nasdaq Finally Sends Out FaceBook Trade Confirms... With Two Hour Delay

Well, better late than never.

 

Think You Bought FaceBook? Think Again

If you just submitted an order to buy FB today, and were confident the order was executed even if at market, you may be out of luck:
  • NASDAQ HAS PROBLEM DELIVERING FACEBOOK TRADE EXECUTION MESSAGES
What this means is that the exchange at this point is deciding whether or not to send back late executions to all people who bought, or thought they bought. Needless to say this means that the indicated price is likely not the real price if one factors for all the latent orders, on both the bid and offer side, unless of course all those orders get cancelled, further eroding confident in the market, only this time hitting that one segment most disenchanted with the stock market - mom and pop.

 

Facebook Plunges From Opening Print, At IPO Price... For Now

$38.00 Syndicate bid holding...high was $45.00 - 200mm shares traded
 

 

 

 

Fadebook Opens For Trading At $42.05 As Europe Closes


UPDATE: Algos defending $40.00 desparately! 115mm shares
From the $38 IPO price, we open at $42.05 (now at $40.1) but we note that in Germany it has tumbled from well over EUR90 earlier. We get the sense the media is disappointed, but of course they will be talking longer-term now and defending a weaker-than-expected open: CNBC: "I just want to make sure we don't whip ourselves into a frenzy on the short term value." - perhaps a little late for that eh?






26 Minutes In And... Still Nothing

Yes, we are all waiting for what is increasingly becoming an epic disaster. In the meantime there is this:
  • TRADERS FOR FACEBOOK HAVING PROBLEMS CHANGING/CANCELING ORDERS:WSJ...
We believe CANCELING is the operative word. Of course, Europe is about to close which according to some may be the catalyst. In other news, nobody even dare think, let alone whipser "Market Conditions"





Gross On Facebook: "I Know A Bubble When I See One"







FaceBook Indicative Open: $45

Update: $42, $43.25, $45, $44






MS/Citi/JPM All Red YTD

Presented with little comment as JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley (and JEF) are now down year-to-date (after being up 35-40% just a few weeks ago) and catching up to the credit reality that we have been so vociferous about...







Will The European Union Destroy Itself Just To Save The Euro?

David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) begins his latest excellent discussion by conjuring Clint Eastwood and noting that when it comes to the Fiscal Compact in Europe "they are pissing down our backs and telling us that it is raining". The Fiscal Compact will NOT strengthen the Euro but in fact by cementing the austerity agenda into law it will make the political environment even more unstable. The Irishman goes on to discuss why Europe is imploding as he insightfully notes that "financial panics do not cause the destruction of wealth, financial panics merely tell you the extent to which wealth has been destroyed by reckless speculation". The realization that current account deficits and not budget deficits were always the problem in Europe which leaves the fiscal compact akin to a doctor prescribing chemotherapy for heart disease. McWilliams explains why France has seen such a change and why the fiscal compact has nothing to do with the Euro but is all about reassuring the German electorate that they will be protected from the consequences of a monetary union that they were bounced into in the nineties; as they are terrified of 'Peripheraid' - the constant drip-drip feeding of German cash to the periphery. Critically, driving to his final discussion of how the Irish should vote on the referendum - remembering that the German elites want a Federal Republic of Europe and that the entire union is in the midst of a massive negotiation - he lays out in cartoon simplicity why Germany is stuck with a massive personal interest in 'cleaning up the EU neighborhood'. Ireland should not give up cheaply in the referendum 'poker match' as all nations try and figure out who the sucker at the table is. Must-watch clip to comprehend the 'game' occurring in Europe and how it is changing very recently.





China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Follow the money from West to East. China is becoming dominant player and holder of gold. Headline: China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says Gold demand in China may surge as much as 30 percent this year as rising incomes boost consumption, helping the country topple India as the world’s largest bullion market on an annual basis, according to the World Gold Council. Demand,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 



 

Health care costs for family of 4 top $20,000

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
American families cannot absorb this type of burden without a significant reduction in their standard of livings. That's already happening. QE to infinity, the policy of last resort, will push health care costs higher. This suggests that socialized medicine will become the only viable health care option for the masses. The toxic mixture of rising debt burdens and aggressive currency... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]


Myanmar Once Was The Single Richest Country In Asia

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
In 1962, Myanmar was the single richest country in Asia. Now it’s the poorest because it’s been so badly managed in the past 50 years. But they are changing that now. If I could put all of my money into Myanmar, I would. - *in Bloomberg* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*


I Think The Market Is Very Close To Approaching An Intermediate Low

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
I would cover my shorts in the next 10 days, because I think the market is very close to approaching an intermediate low from which we will rebound. - *in CNBC * *Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF) * *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*


Chris Powell Answers Doug Casey's Questions About Gold Manipulation

 

 

Why Stability Stalwart Singapore Should Be Seriously Scared If The Feta Is Truly Accompli

We have discussed the probability (around 50%) and possibility of a Greek exit from the Euro ad nauseum; how the post-election anti-austerity rage is bringing the world to a new realization that this is probable not possible and the widespread risk aversion of this event is much more of a global event than local - no matter how many times you are told how small Greece is. Critically, as BofAML notes, it is the systemic threat of an untamed banking and sovereign crisis in Europe which makes multiple-sigma events less 'tail' and more 'normal'. With money due to run out at the latest by July, new elections mid-June (that show massive support for the anti-bailout party), and the impacts on the real economy, exchange rate and inflation fears, and default and ECB balance sheet implications; it seems there are also strong incentives to keep Greece in. However, there is a political line of compromise and austerity that will be hard to cross for both parties which, if it failed - and it doesn't have much time - would mean a very fast 'ring-fencing' would need to occur for this not to thermonuclear with the three main channels of volatility transmission to the rest of the world being: banking and finance, trade, and confidence - all three of which are active already with Asian trade (and banking exposure) seemingly under-appreciated in our view with Singapore dramatically exposed with a stunning 60%-plus of GDP tied up in European bank claims.




FaceBook Pulls Reverse BATS - Flash Smashes To €50,000/Share

Sigh: FaceBook's market cap briefly passed $100 trillion. How long until a loaf of bread does the same thing?







Facebook European Premarket Bid - €58

If this screen from Bloomberg is correct, people are far dumber than even we thought, because this implies that FB will have an over $200 billion market cap at the open all else equal.




As The Chinese Car "Channel Stuffing" Bubble Pops, "Debilitating Price Cuts" Arrive


The fact that GM's "stunning" car sales have been in no small part driven exclusively by its eagerness to stuff dealers with unsold inventory, aka channel stuffing, is well known to Zero Hedge readers - we have been covering the subject for over a year now. What we did not know, yet what in retrospect is so glaringly obvious, is that the GM ploy of fooling the dumbest sellside analysts and investors all the time has now gone global. And while channel stuffing may have worked for a while, it is now starting to bite back. Bloomberg reports: "Chinese dealers are struggling with the rising number of unsold cars that’s threatening to deepen price cuts, according to the nation’s biggest automobile dealers’ association. Dealerships for Honda Motor Co., Chery Automobile Co., BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. carried more than 45 days of inventory as of the end of April, exceeding the threshold that foreshadows debilitating price cuts, Su Hui, vice president of the auto market division at the state-backed China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview yesterday.  Unsold cars are crowding dealer lots in cities from Guangzhou in the south to Xi’an to the west,” Su said in a phone interview yesterday from Beijing. “It’s like a contagious disease that will spread." Wait, so Channel Stuffing is... bad? And if 45 days of inventory "foreshadows debilitating price cuts", then what should GM with its 86 days of full vehicle days supply in the US say?




Europe Is Knock, Knock, Knocking On Chairman's Door

In the middle of the European crisis last fall, EUR-USD cross-currency basis swap spreads were on the tip of every trader and media-personality's tongue as the critical means for providing banks with access to short-term USD liquidity was ratcheting lower and lower. This means the European banks were willing to pay a higher and higher premium to be able to offload their EUR funding into USD funding. With LTRO funding now faded and perception of the sustainability of European banks becoming dismal, US banks are charging ever higher rates for Eurozone banks to borrow. What is more worrisome is that with the relative liquidity of USD assets, it would appear that the widening in the basis swap spread means the European banks have run dry of money-good USD collateral to unwind. This repricing of USD liquidity costs (now at 4 month highs and increasing rapidly) suggests that the Fed-provided swap lines could get a fresh calling to save the day and/or just as we have noted so many times in the past, the collateral squeeze continues to be the critical part of Europe's demise (and thus negates anything but absolute monetization by the ECB as a solution for the banking system).




Living Under The Skies Of Assgard

We may already be in Fimbulvetr, the winter of winters, and it is a cold wind that whips across the European plains blown in from the Southern climes high up into the Alps and then down into the cities of man. In Norse mythology this was a three year event and the creaking of the ice can be distinctly heard if only you listen. Many will not listen, this one can predict, and the clothes that will be worn will not protect the unhearing from the freeze which will surely come. But you and me, we have gazed long for the riders of the North and seeing them; we are prepared.




Short Selling Ban Returning To Insolvent European Countries Near You

Back in August 2011 Europe ushered in the totally idiotic idea of reinstating a short selling ban in financial stocks. We predicted at the time that the result would be a sheer disaster: "To those who may have forgotten, on September 18, the SEC banned the shorting of all financials here in the US. Below is a chart of the carnage that ensued... The same chart is coming to Europe first. End result: 48% drop in under a month." Sure enough, a week later we were right: "European banks are already unchanged compared to the day of the ban and in France they are now negative! What next: selling is illegal or "Speculation" is a felony? We expect to find out soon..." Why do we bring this up? Because according to Spanish daily Cinco Dias this last sugar high recourse of a collapsing system is soon coming back to an insolvent European country near you. From MarketWatch: "Spanish stocks rebounded from a sharp opening loss on Friday lifted by gains across the banking sector and led by a 26% rise for Bankia SA ES:BKIA +26.37% after a media report on a possible ban on short selling of banks. The IBEX 35 index defied losses across Europe to gain 1% to 6,596.40. Spanish daily Cinco Dias reported Friday, citing banking sources, that banks in the country want market regulator, CNMV, to reinstate a ban on short selling of domestic banking stocks."




Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: May 18

With a lack of European data, markets have remained focused on the macroeconomic issues throughout the morning. European equities have seen mixed trade this morning, starting off sharply lower following Moody’s downgrade of 16 Spanish banks late last night. Equities have been observed on a relatively upwards trend as market talk of asset reallocation into stocks from fixed-income has somewhat buoyed sentiment, however this remains unconfirmed. The news that Spanish banks are pressing regulators to reinstate a short-selling ban on domestic banking stocks has also helped keep negative sentiment towards Spanish financials at bay, with Bankia dramatically reversing recent trends and seen higher by around 25% at the midpoint of the session...The chief of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group has said volatile conditions in global markets have caused the wholesale funding market for Australian banks to freeze, a further sign that the European turmoil is taking its toll on global markets.  


 




Patriot Cartoon of the Day
Greek Bank Run
by John Cole, The Scranton Times-Tribune


 

De La Rue Warming Up The 'New Drachma' Printer

Now that the consensus seemingly is one that a Greek exit is inevitable, there was only one missing step: an actual New Drachma currency, not in When Issued, electronic 1s and 0s format, but real, based on cotton and linen. It appears UK banknote printer De La Rue is now on top of that. From Reuters: "De La Rue (DLAR.L) has drawn up contingency plans to print drachma banknotes should Greece exit the euro and approach the British money printer, an industry source told Reuters on Friday. The news comes as EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said on Friday the European Commission and the European Central Bank are working on an emergency scenario in case Greece has to leave the euro zone - the first time an EU official has confirmed the existence of contingency plans." Now as noted earlier, the "emergency scenario" was promptly denied by the EC, but as of now nobody has denied the drachma printing yet, which in the world of Venn Diagrams is the "big one."




 

Bloomberg Interview GoldCore on Chinese and Global Gold Demand

Gold rose for its 2nd day on concerns that Europe’s debt crisis is growing and the yellow metal is once again seeing increased demand as a safe haven asset. Fitch's downgrade of Greece's credit rating sent the euro to a 4 month low against the dollar and investors wonder if Greece will be able to continue in the EU fiscal union.  The gold price jumped over $30 yesterday its most since January, and news from a US report on manufacturing in Philadelphia showed contraction for the first time in over 2 quarters. Moody's Investor Service downgraded 16 Spanish banks yesterday, including Banco Santander, the euro zone's largest bank.  All the banks' long-term debt ratings were decreased by at least one grade and some suffered three-grade cuts.  This is just days after Moody's downgrade of 26 Italian banks on Monday. Spain's banks like those in other EU countries (PIIGS) have been left with a sea of bad loans after the real estate bubble burst and investors see a state bailout as extremely difficult in light of the country’s limited public finances.




Rest-Of-World Equities Rapidly Going Red Year-To-Date

Asia is deteriorating rapidly this evening - extending losses from the US day session. S&P 500 futures just touched 1300 once again and credit markets are bleeding wider. Only the DAX remains positive for the year so far in Europe; today's price action pushed the Dow Transports into the red year-to-date and the rest of the US indices are rolling over rapidly; and in Asia-Pac - Japan and Australia are now in the red year-to-date (in USD terms) with the HangSeng getting close.




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