Thursday, May 24, 2012

Not Even Goldman Understands This Market Any More

The following EOD commentary from Goldman's S&T desk pretty much summarizes how everyone feels.





Here’s the REAL DEAL NO BS Situation with Europe (Warning What Follows is EXTREMELY BAD).
Phoenix Capital...
05/24/2012 - 17:55
This is the REAL DEAL for Europe. Anyone who has some kind of counter-argument to these points either doesn’t understand the political environment we’ve entered (even Central Banks are...








Police Urging Greeks To Stop Stuffing Mattresses

We have spent a considerable amount of time in the last week or two explaining just why depositor withdrawals (or bank runs) are the death knell for the Euro experiment. We first described the 'run on banks and governments' on the basis of the potential for overnight loss of 'fungibility' back in December but the escalation last week in Greece (and the contagion to Spain's Bankia) signals things are shifting to 11 on the amplifier of Euro-Fail. This evening brings new information from The Guardian that 'Police are urging Greeks to keep their money in bank accounts rather than putting it at risk of theft, amid further uncertainty about whether the austerity-struck country will remain in the eurozone.' Greece's national police spokesman, Thanassis Kokkalakis, told Reuters: "Many people have withdrawn their money from the banks fearing a financial crash, and they either carry it on them, find a hideout at home or in storage rooms. We urge people to trust the banking system, leave their money there, or at least in a safe place, not hide it at home" Is anyone picturing Cramer and his 'Bear Stearns' call? Speculation of a Euro-wide deposit guarantee scheme was quashed somewhat by yesterday's dismally predictable non-event summit - especially given the only three-week span to the next elections. That leaves Greek citizens juggling the possibility of having their home robbed against the probability that the government, via GEURO-isation, will do it for them in the bank.




UK Banks Want To Charge Customers For Accounts

The impression that bankers and regulators have seems to be that banks are doing customers a favour by holding onto their money and occasionally losing it all buying junk securities. Nope. In a free market, banks that tried to charge customers for the privilege would be laughed out of the marketplace. Banks — by their very definition as intermediaries — generate profits from making good investments, not by charging customers for the privilege of holding their money. Unfortunately this isn’t a free market, and banks can (and probably will) co-ordinate with each other to keep the market uncompetitive. Barriers to entry make it difficult to impossible for new players to enter the market and dislodge the status quo.





Wondering Why the End May Actually Really, Honestly “Be Near?”

by Gordon Duff, VeteransToday.com:
One problem we are all ignoring, while we are told to worry about Iranian nukes that do not now nor never will exist, is that the money in your pocket is toilet paper, your home is worth less than yesterday and probably belongs to someone who lost the paperwork and has been bankrupt themselves for 30 years.
This is the news, one bleak moment after another diffused with smut, girlie shots, fashions, Zuckerberg, hero yesterday, villain today, all of it useless, purposefully lies, a distraction and, even more correctly, carefully engineered mind control.
If only I were kidding. I am going to make a series of disclosures today. The reason is simple, the public has the right to know. As a grabber, I will pick a military subject. This one is critical and two phased.
Control of the air is the basis for American military power, without that, our aircraft carriers, our troops in the field are “sitting ducks.”
Currently, weapons systems we are supposed to have “up and working,” the basis for our last decade of development is in shambles and we are keeping this from the public. Three primary systems are in meltdown:
Read More @ VeteransToday.com





The Real Obama Budget Deficit For 2011: 5 Trillion Dollars

from The American Dream:
If the U.S. government used the same accounting methods that most U.S. businesses use, the real federal budget deficit for last year would have been 5 trillion dollars instead of 1.3 trillion dollars.  So where does the huge difference come from?  I think a simple illustration would be helpful here.  When you go shopping, do you only count the transactions where you use cash, or do you also count the transactions where you signed on the dotted line and promised to pay later?  Of course you count both of them.  Well, the U.S. government does not count promises to pay later when calculating budget deficits.  The “official” Obama budget deficit for 2011 was 1.3 trillion dollars, but according to USA Today when you add in the rise in liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and other retirement programs that adds another 3.7 trillion dollars to the total.  Those are future financial promises that we have made that future taxes are not expected to cover.  This analysis by USA Today squares very well with what analysts such as John Williams of shadowstats.com have been saying for years.  The truth is that our federal budget deficits have actually been far worse than we have been told.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com








What Do FX Traders Know That Stock Momos Don't?


Two days ago we highlighted the growing divergence between Italian sovereign credit spreads (tightening) improving while EURUSD was deteriorating rapidly - suggesting (for those with deep pockets) an interesting convergence trade. It seems that whatever message the FX traders are hearing is being ignored by equities too now as today US equities diverged even more dramatically joining the rest of risk assets in their divergence from strong USD, weak EUR flows. It seems risk assets broadly are pricing in 'an event' and then thinking ahead to the subsequent 'intervention' that will inevitably float all boats. However, what is clear, in our view from the EURUSD price action, is that unlike many who expect the Fed to save the day, EUR weakness implies some form of monetization by the ECB (or reduces the market's implied expectation for Fed QE3/4). Given tonight's weak equity futures performance (ES -7pts from late highs), we suspect the FX market has it right and momos are over-thinking the reaction impulse function as a given - or more clearly - if Greece exits and no other risk-assets drop (having already anticipated the central bank reaction), will the central bank reaction come?




As Bankia Bailout Costs Grow Exponentially, Is A Stealth Bank Run Taking Place... And What Happens To Ronaldo?

Note the following sequence of events, bolded numbers, and dates:
  • Bank Of Spain Formally Nationalizes Bankia, Says Insolvent Bank Is "Solvent", Adds There Is No Cause For Concern, Zero Hedge, May 9
  • Spain is taking over Bankia by converting its 4.5 billion euros of preferred shares in the group’s parent company into ordinary shares, BusinessWeek, May 21
  • Spain said on Wednesday its rescue of problem lender Bankia would cost at least 9 billion euros ($11 billion), as the government tries to clean up a banking system that threatens  to drag the country deeper into the euro zone crisis, Reuters, May 23   
  • Bankia SA will have to ask the Spanish government for more than 15 billion euros as part of its effort to restore its financial health, state-owned news agency EFE reported Thursday, citing financial sources, Dow Jones, May 24
Hopefully we aren't the only ones to notice how the bailout cost has oddly doubled almost on a daily basis.




Retail Pulls Money Out Of Stocks For 13th Consecutive Week

Not like this will come as a surprise to anyone in the aftermath of last week's abysmal FaceBook IPO which pretty much killed all retail interest in equity markets, but in the last week, the "dumb" money pulled another $3.5 billion out of domestic stocks per ICI, bringing the total tally to 13 consecutive weeks of outflows, and 52 weeks of outflows in the past 56 weeks, with redemptions amounting to $46 billion in 2012, compared to just $6.5 billion for the same period in 2011. Algo-matic, the 20 remaining Primary Dealers and whatever hedge funds are left can pass hot grenades amongst each other: the retail money (RIP) has found other ways to amuse itself.




Breaking news: US Senator Rand Paul offers surprise amendment to rein in FDA abuses, disarm the FDA, decriminalize free speech 

by Mike Adams, Natural News:

In a stunning and completely unannounced move, US Senator Rand Paul – who many agree represents the best hope for the restoration of liberty in America — has introduced an amendment to a key FDA funding bill that seeks to sharply rein in the FDA’s power. It would disarm the FDA and make the agency stop using guns against the American people; it would halt the FDA’s armed raids on raw milk farmers; it would also stop the FDA’s outrageous and longstanding censorship of truthful health claims of dietary supplements and medicinal herbs.
This is a big deal. While it may not pass, given its sudden introduction and lack of enough time to build grassroots support, the very fact that U.S. Senator Rand Paul has introduced such an amendment is proof positive that Rand Paul is exactly the kind of leader that can help take our nation out of the age of government tyranny and censorship and into a new era of transparency, accountability and liberty.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com




Silver Update 5/24/12 Bond Balloon



GOLD: 5000 Year History of Being MONEY – Andy Schectman






Why we’re nowhere near the mania phase in precious metals

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :
…Gold and silver’s real breakout will be when the average, everyday guy has signed up to receive gold price SMS alerts to his smart phone and has the local coin dealer on speed dial.
Just like the real estate bubble in the early 2000s when every Tom, Dick, and Harry was flipping off-plan condos in Miami, precious metals will enter bubble territory when the masses get into the market.
It may be a bumpy ride for precious metals as the euro crisis continues to unfold… but it’s clear that we’re a long way off from the Joe Six-Pack mania phase.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com




US spy operation that manipulates social media

Military’s ‘sock puppet’ software creates fake online identities to spread pro-American propaganda
by Nick Fielding and Ian Cobain, The Guardian:
The US military is developing software that will let it secretly manipulate social media sites by using fake online personas to influence internet conversations and spread pro-American propaganda.
A Californian corporation has been awarded a contract with United States Central Command (Centcom), which oversees US armed operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, to develop what is described as an “online persona management service” that will allow one US serviceman or woman to control up to 10 separate identities based all over the world.
The project has been likened by web experts to China’s attempts to control and restrict free speech on the internet.
Read More @ Guardian.co.uk




Death Of Globalization Will Shatter China

by Chriss Street, Testosterone Pit.com:
Specialist in corporate reorganizations and turnarounds, former Chairman of two NYSE listed companies. His latest book, The Third Way, describes how to achieve management excellence and financial reward by moving organizations from Conflict and Confrontation to Leadership and Cooperation. Chriss lives in Newport Beach, CA.
The populist movement sweeping the world is a direct threat to China as globalization’s biggest winner.  A rebellious tone has swept the world with the Arab Spring, Socialist victories in France and Greece, Argentina nationalizing oil assets, Indonesia imposing a 50% tax on mineral exports and the Occupy movement here in the U.S.  All these events demonstrate rejection of globalization’s faith in supra-state institutions such as the European Union, the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the G8.  This upheaval represents a new rise of nationalism and an enormous rejection of China as the world’s biggest exporter.
Early last week, China Daily reported the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves had actually dropped from February to March by $4.69 billion, “dragged down by short-term capital outflows.” 
Read More @ TestosteronePit.com




Vatican Bank Head Ousted

[Ed. Note: The list grows, and this is a big one.]
from American Kabuki:
VATICAN CITY — The Vatican Bank ousted its president on Thursday after he failed to clean up the image of an institution that has come to symbolise the opacity and scandal gripping the Holy See’s administration.
Ettore Gotti Tedeschi was forced to resign “for failing to carry out duties of primary importance,” the Holy See said in a statement.
The president was ousted in the wake of a series of financial scandals as the Vatican tries to clean up its image and put a stop to a leak of documents.
The board passed a unanimous no-confidence vote against the president… and believes the action is important to maintain the vitality” of the bank, the Vatican said, as internal divisions over transparency came to a head.
Read More @ AmericanKabuki




Thursday Gold Charts

from TF Metals Report:
With today being sort of a non-event because of gold option expiration, I’ve spent nearly the entire morning on the phone. All of a sudden it’s 1:00 EDT and I realize that you need a new thread!
So, here you go. Again, though today looked promising for a while, it instead devolved into simple, algorithmic nonsense as the HFT trolled for stops and The Cartel painted the tape for minimum option pain. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
Speaking of boring, you’ve read here incessantly about the lack of volume and trading interest on the Comex post-MFG, particularly in silver. Well, check this out. Below is the change in price and change on total OI for silver for the past two weeks. Boring and strange at the same time. Instead of giving you my own interpretation of the data, I encourage you to place your own hypothesis in the comments.
Read More @ TF Metals Report.com





Pennsylvania Constable to Sign Resolution Opposing the NDAA and Patriot Act

from Activist Post
Pennsylvania State Constable Ed Quiggle, Jr., the elected Constable for the City of Sunbury’s 9th Ward, will sign a resolution in opposition to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012, also known as the NDAA, on Saturday, May 26th, 2012 at 10 a.m., in Cameron Park directly across the street from the Northumberland County Courthouse in Sunbury, Pennsylvania. The NDAA authorizes the federal government to arrest and indefinitely detain Americans and legal aliens without charge or trial.
On January 17th, 2012 the County Commissioners of Elk County, Pennsylvania unanimously passed a resolution opposing the NDAA, titled “To Preserve Habeas Corpus And Civil Liberties.” Sheriff Mike McMoran, Comanche County, Kansas, Sheriff Grayson Robinson, Arapahoe County, Colorado, and former Sheriff Richard Mack have signed resolutions opposing the NDAA and ordering no one in their department to cooperate with the enforcement of the NDAA. Virginia, Maine, and Utah have passed bills opposing and nullifying the NDAA, and many other states have introduced similar bills. Many local governments and groups have already passed resolutions.
Groups across the political spectrum are supporting the nullification and/or repeal of the NDAA . . .
Read More @ Activist Post




The Repo Market Awaits

by Greg Canavan, DailyReckoning.com.au:
You can take comfort in the knowledge that this global mess we call a financial system is all about the banks. Successive Greek bailouts (not to mention Ireland and Portugal) were about protecting undercapitalised and essentially insolvent banks.
We’re not exactly breaking news here. But we feel we must continue to shout into the wind and maintain that this slow motion implosion of the global economy is all about the banks. Politicians may be our nominal leaders…but the bankers sustain the politicians. Therefore the bankers call the shots.
Central banks…commercial banks…they’re all complicit. After they stuffed debt down people’s throats for decades, the world threw up on them in 2008. This created a problem.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au




SHARE This One: RONY 2012









Is talk of a “Grexit” the Smoke Screen for a Global Economic Meltdown?

from CapitalAccount:

Today, the major financial news outlets have again turned their focus to Europe. The economic downturn there has persisted, for some countries, going on 5 years, with no end in sight.
Talk of a Greek exit – the “Grexit” as it has been dubbed – is the “talk of the town.” Will Greece exit the Euro, what will this mean for the other economies, for the people of Europe, for the people of the world…
We look at charts, at numbers, at fancy statistics that tell us whether we grew by half a point here or contracted by a quarter of a point there. Today, we learnedthat the Eurozone member economies jointly contracted this month at the fastest pace in almost three years. Some will ask: what does this mean or why did this happen?
But the media always seems to circle back to the same basic question: what do we doabout it? But does this question begin from a false premise, that highly fallible human beings, sitting in ivory towers can somehow fix the lives of 7 billion people, simply by pulling the right policy levers? By making a few extra loans or spending a few extra dollars or euros?
What if the correct response, as our guest Jim Grant has said in the past, would be to do…NOTHING…try that on for size… Maybe, just maybe, the world, and our “policy overlords” included, should spend less time doing, and more time thinking…thinking about the mess we have all created with our attempts, one after the other, to fix this or to tweak that: “to do something” – believing that a handful of bureaucrats can steer and guide an entire mass of people,their lives and their ambitions.




ATF Requests Records Of Gun Owners In Alaska

Is the federal agency compiling a list of firearms owners?
by Paul Joseph Watson, Prison Planet:
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agents have been visiting gun shops in Alaska and asking for records of firearms sales, stoking fears that the federal agency is building a list of gun owners in the state.
According to the Alaska Dispatch, earlier this year two gun shops in Alaska “reported that ATF agents had asked for their books, and both turned down the requests. The one shop that went on the record, Great Northern Guns in Anchorage, said the ATF agent asked politely for the books, and when store manager Frank Caiazza refused, the agent just as politely accepted the refusal.”
It is illegal for the ATF to remove any material from a gun shop unless it is part of a criminal investigation. The requests for records have lead some to question whether the “ATF will create some sort of list or database of gun owners,” states the report.
Alaska Rep. Don Young requested a meeting with ATF officials after receiving reports that ATF agents were visiting gun shops and asking to see record books.
Read More @ PrisonPlanet.com




The top five gold commentators

by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
There are a range of commentators on the precious metals but there is a golden elite whose insights, opinions and research should not be missed by gold investors. These gold market luminaries can be found in a number of places, and come from a variety of backgrounds. We thought it a good moment to pay our respects, explain to others why these gold commentators are so notable and deserving of your attention, and talk a bit more about why we think they’re so great. Read on for a range of sources that are sure to help your gold investment knowledge.
We’ve compiled a list of our top 5 gold commentators, who are worth seeking out. This is by no means scientific or definitive, but it is a collection of bankers, investors, traders and entrepreneurs who have helped us develop our world view. We have only included commentators that are alive and thus highly accessible today, had we not the late Ferdinand Lips would have surely been included. We have also tried to keep it focused on the gold and silver markets; we would otherwise have been sure to mention the likes of wider forecasters and trend spotters such as Bill Bonner. Tell us if we’ve missed anyone off the list in the comments section below! And, while you’re at it recommend your favourite commentators or analysts.
Read More @ JSMineset.com




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