Wednesday, May 9, 2012

"Europe Has Started The Endgame" And Biderman Says "The US Is Next"

Charles Biderman (CEO of TrimTabs) is not shocked that "Europeans who have been getting something for nothing, want to continue getting something for nothing" as they chant that Austerity is evil. Charles provides context for the revolt that the Europeans find themselves fulfilling as he looks back at how they/we got here. Briefly covering the key aspects of the last 25 years, of why and how various parabolic growths (be it stocks, real estate, the internet, or debt) have led us to believe we "deserve something for nothing"; he vehemently argues that the European mess will not resolve itself until the fundamental belief that we all deserve to be taken care of from cradle-to-grave dissolves. In one of his best rants, the BLS-belittler explains how Europe has started the endgame and why the end of this year could well see the US move front-and-center in the crisis.  Harsh but fair, in a little under 4 minutes, summarizes all that is wrong with societal values and suggests catalysts for next steps - dismal next steps.




John Taylor On Why "The Ground Is Not Solid Beneath Our Feet"

Investors should be questioning their positive assumptions after the events of the past two weeks. Things have changed a great deal and rumors abound on how the authorities plan to support the market now. At the end of last month, only ten calendar days ago, the perky US equity market, the placid foreign exchange scene, calm credit spreads and rock-bottom volatility implied to us and anyone paying even cursory attention that the world was happy with the way things were turning out in 2012, no matter what the Mayan calendar might be saying. But now, after the Socialist victory in France, the Greek electoral disintegration, the poor US employment numbers and the disastrous European PMI readings the market is very uncertain with the EUR/USD below 1.30, Spanish 10-year Bonds back over 6.00% and equity markets down sharply around the world. Our cyclical analysis finds this weakness very appropriate as we should be in a decline. What makes the ground so uncertain beneath our feet is the reality of our current position: interest rates are at zero, fiscal budgets are stretched to the maximum, total national financial liabilities are at a breaking point and national monetary bases are a multiple of the highest they have ever been. Quite simply, there are no good borrowers. No one wants to loan anyone any money.



Spanish 10 yr bonds rise to 6.08% yield/Italian bonds 5.60%/Nationalization of Spanish Bankia/


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: As I warned you last night, the plight of the Euro breaking 1:30 will cause many bourses and commodities southbound and that is what happened today.  No doubt we were witnessing massive margin calls early this as investors dumped equities and in their haste they threw out the baby (gold and silver) with the bath water. Gold closed down by $10.30 to $1593.70




Europe's Most Parabolic Chart Goes Parabolic-er

Two weeks ago, we showed that when it comes to parabolic charts, Europe sure has a variety to choose from. Yet none are quite as parabolic as the chart enabling it all: the Bundesbank's TARGET2 claims toward the rest of the Eurosystem, or as we have repeatedly explained (and as Jens Wiedmann confirmed), the sunk cost that Germany will have to foot once the Euro experiment ends, and the EMU falls apart.. which judging by recent developments in Greece, and now Spain, could be as soon as in a few weeks. The number as of April 30? €644,182,010,456.05, which is exactly 25% of German GDP, and an increase of €28.6 billion in April and €181 billion in 2012 alone! Putting this number in perspective, imagine that the Fed had "assets" totalling $3.85 trillion that everyone knew are totally worthless, and meant that it would have to print a like amount in fresh money as replacement "capital" when D-Day came. This "money" represents a receivable that the Bundesbank will never, repeat never, get back, once Greece exits the Eurozone, and sets a precedent for all the other insolvent European countries, leading to the end of the European monetary experiment. It also means that the asset base backing the liability side of the Bundesbank will soon get obliterated. So the real question is: do German taxpayers feel like sinking costs which will never be repaid, and which serve merely to preserve the myth of viable German export markets, thereby keeping the illusion that the German intra-Eurozone export industry is alive and well, while in the process obliterating the balance sheet of their far more prudent central bank? Or will the German population say "genug" and force the Bundesbank to stop funding the current account deficit ways that it has been enabling for years? The choice is theirs. Just don't come crying to the Fed when this number is 100% of GDP and everything falls apart.




Rick Rule's Primer On Contrarian Speculation

What's important is that good markets are for selling and bad markets are for buying; it's counterintuitive. Your perception of how events will play out in the future is determined mostly by your experience in the immediate past; and if the last three investment decisions that you've made have rewarded you – if you feel good about your precepts – you begin to do something natural, which is confuse a bull market with brains, and you begin to become very aggressive. If your last three decisions – irrespective of whether they were well thought out – haven't played out so well, you become cautious. What you need to do is teach your brain to overwhelm or overrule your heart and understand that cheaper is better and more expensive is less good. It's difficult, but it must be done. Many things that are rewarding are difficult.




PIMCO Total Return Fund MBS Holdings Hit Record $137 Billion As Fund Rises To All Time High AUM


Not many changes in this month's Total Return Fund (PIMCO) flagship fund update: Bill Gross kept his MBS exposure at 53%, while lowering his net margin cash position from -23% to -18%, courtesy of a decline in Emerging Markets exposure from 10% to 7%. Exposure to all other products remained relatively flat. The one major difference is that TRF AUM rose from $252.5 billion to $258.7 billion, a $6 billion inflow in one month, and an all time high for the fund. As a result, the proportional exposure to MBS rose to $137 billion from $134 billion in absolute notional: also an all time record. Despite recent jawboning by both good and bad Fed cops, Gross is not wavering and is certain that when QE comes, and it will, it will not be some sterilized intervention (which is impossible as the Fed no longer has short-term bonds to sell), but outright MBS/QE, most likely in a 5/3 ratio. Additionally, we also learned that the effective duration of the TRF portfolio slumped to 4.61 years, the lowest since July 2011, when Gross was convinced America was going to hell. This one is somewhat confusing although we attribute the duration crunch to the ongoing surge in MBS holdings, and to a repositioning toward short-dated TSY paper.




What Austerity?

By mainstream media accounts, the presidential election in France and parliamentary elections in Greece on May 6 were overwhelming verdicts against “austerity” measures being implemented in Europe. There is only one problem. It is a lie. First off, austerity was never really tried. Not really. In France for example, according to Eurostat, annual expenditures have actually increased from €1.095 trillion to €1.118 trillion in 2011. In fact spending has increased every single year for the past decade. The debt there increased too from €1.932 trillion €1.987 trillion last year, just as it did every year before. Real “austere”. The French spent more, and they borrowed more. The deficit in France did decrease by about €34 billion in 2011, but that was largely because of a €56.6 billion surge in tax revenues. Again, there were no spending cuts. Zero. Yet incoming socialist president François Hollande claimed after his victory over Nicolas Sarkozy that he would bring an end to this mythical austerity: “We will bring back Europe on a track for jobs, growth and the future… We’re no longer doomed to austerity.” This is just a willful, purposeful distortion. What the heck is he talking about? Certainly not France.


11th Consecutive Outflow From US Equity Mutual Funds Pulls Cash Levels To Record Lows


We are unsure what is more notable in this week's most recent fund flow update: that in the week ended May 2, investors pulled out another whopping $6.6 billion out of domestic equity mutual funds, the 11th consecutive, and a total of $42 billion in 2012 (compared to $10 billion over the same period in 2011), or that as the chart below shows, the two identical S&P overlay arrows (identical in their length and angle) demonstrate just how comparable the effect of QE2 and Operation Twist, or QE3, have been. the two arrows also demonstrate without a doubt, that, as Goldman admitted last month, the "flow" effect at the long-end of the curve (thank you Chubby Checker) is what it was all about, which means that sterilized QE is bunk, and all that matters is of the Fed to be actively monetizing something, anything, in order for stocks to go higher. Regardless, the only question left now is not whether the same drift back lower by 200 S&P point that stocks experienced after the end of QE2 will happen, but when and how rapidly it will take place, just in time for QE4 (NOT Operation Twist-er) to be announced in June. And finally, for those wondering how it is possible that every month US investors can pull cash out of mutual funds without them running out of cash, we say: observe the distinct pattern in Chart 2, which shows that as of March mutual funds held a record low 3.3% in liquid assets on their books.




Supreme Court: ‘law’ repugnant to the Constitution is void

by Carl Herman, Activist Post
A useful place for Americans to stand is with the US Supreme Court in one of its most cited decisions that concluded anything passed as law in obvious violation of the US Constitution is not law, but void. Void as a legal term means the alleged “law” has zero legal force; that “void things are as no things.”
Supreme Court Chief Justice Marshall’s crystal-clear wording is below. This definitive legal ruling empowers Americans acting upon or enforcing such non-laws to reject them in full confidence of their Oaths to support and defend the US Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
A 3-minute video asks police, military, and other law enforcement:  When you signed-up to serve the US Constitution, was your Oath sincere?

Read More @ Activist Post




Accumulation/Distribution Trends in Gold and Silver

from Jesse’s Café Américain:
The accumulation trends seem rather steady despite the recent volatility in price and protracted sawtooth downtrend.
I have included GLD and SLV in case the futures calculations had induced some distortions.
On the last chart I include the Chalkin Money Flows for GLD which are remarkably positive except for the year end selling we saw at the end of 2011.
Someone had mentioned this phenomenon to me earlier today, but I did not think about it until I read Harvey Organ’s futures analysis in which he noted his surprise that in the recent price smackdown’s the Open Interest of gold and silver were steady or even went UP.
That seems to imply short selling into demand, rather than long liquidation as the cause of the price declines.   From this evening’s commentary by Harvey:

“The total gold comex open interest baffled everyone as instead of falling badly surprisingly it rose by 3906 contracts. The raid orchestrated by the bankers somehow did not cause any gold leaves to fall from the gold tree. The May delivery month surprisingly saw its OI rise from 64 contracts to 173. How on earth will the regulators explain this as we witnessed no liquidation of metal of any kind in a huge price downfall and yet more stood for delivery?
Read More @ JessesCrossRoadsCafe.Blogspot.com



The Japanese Are Dumping Their Gold

from Testosterone Pit.com:
In Japan, people who are old enough to have lived it as adults still reminisce about the bubble that blew up in 1989 when the Nikkei almost hit 40,000 (now at 9,045) and when the already sky-high prices of real estate could only go up further. The slide from the tippy top to reality today has been brutal, and a lot of people lost their shirts. A home changed from being an “investment” to being an “expense.” Stocks became toys for traders. And government bonds, because they kept their value though their coupons were practically imperceptible, became the place to go, and by golly, there suddenly were a lot of them, a veritable tsunami of JGBs that is still building momentum and will reach by the end of this fiscal year one quadrillion yen ($14 trillion), 240% of GDP. But there has been one investment, especially since 1999, that has worked out phenomenally well for the otherwise hapless Japanese investor: Gold.
Alas, they’re dumping it. And when they’re dumping it faster than internal demand can absorb it, the surplus is exported and shows up in the trade statistics of the Ministry of Finance: in fiscal 2006, Japan became a net exporter of gold for the first time since the ministry started tracking it in 1988. Net exports rose every year and built into a crescendo in fiscal 2011, ended March 31, when they surged to 135 tons, an astounding 61% jump from fiscal 2010.
Read More @ TestosteronePit.com




SHFE sets Silver futures benchmark at 6,166 yuan/kg

from Bullion Street:
SHANGHAI: China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange will start trading silver futures from Thursday with a bench mark price of 6,166 yuan per kilogram.
In a statement, SHFE said silver futures contracts launched include AG1209, AG1210, AG1211, AG1212, AG1301, AG1302, AG1303 and AG1304 and daily gain or loss limit has been temporarily set at 7%, which is doubled for the first trading day.
Transaction fees have been temporarily set at 0.008 percent of turnover. No charges will be induced for closing intraday positions on the first day of trading.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com




CIA Whistle Blower, Robert D Steele, Reveals The Truth About Government

from Liberty Blitzkrieg
This is an extremely powerful 10 minute clip that I suggest everyone take the time to watch. What I find so remarkable about it is the fact that this speech was given over two years ago and I am just seeing it today for the first time. It demonstrates that there are many, many brave people speaking out, but the mainstream media just has a total blackout on these sorts of folks in what must be at this point a deliberate strategy to keep most Americans stupid, ignorant debt slaves. What I really found interesting, particularly given my recent launch of this blog, is the emphasis he put on such activities as being key to turning this whole thing around. The concept of “citizen journalists” being extremely important, which certainly appears to be taking off. His description of the Bilderberg group as “nobodies who wanna be somebodies combined with somebodies on their way down” is just classic. This guy is good…

Read More @ LibertyBlitzkrieg.com




Caught on Tape: Rampant Vote Fraud By Government Officials On House Floor

from SHTFPlan:

As voter registration and identity fraud becomes a hot button issue across State legislatures you’d think that at least one group of voters – our elected officials – would understand the importance of laws and procedures designed to maintain the integrity of our legislative process.

According to the rules of the Texas State House of Representatives, for example:
Any member found guilty by the House of knowingly voting for another member on the voting machine shall be subject to discipline deemed appropriate by the house.
Given how clearly this rule is defined, and the fact that it’s common sense for each House member to be allowed only a single vote as is generally the case in all democratic voting proceedings, you’ll be astonished to see legislators not only voting for laws on their colleague’s voting machines when they’re not present, but actually racing to beat each other to the punch.
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com




Rick Rule’s Primer on Contrarian Speculation

by Chris Powell, Casey Research:
In an interview with Louis James, Rick Rule provides an excellent summary of what contrarian speculation investment is and makes a powerful case that the current metals climate means gold stocks are the play to make.

[If you weren't present at this timely summit, you can still learn the details of Rick's current investment strategy, plus much, much more. Get the actionable advice and economic perspectives and insights of 31 financial luminaries to make sure you don't miss the opportunities ahead.]
 Louis James: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. Thank you very much for tuning in. We are at the Casey Research Summit – the reality check on the recovery of the economy. One of our luminary speakers who is always at our events, Rick Rule, is with us here now. We’d like you to give us the quick tour of your talk today and we’ll go from there.

Read More @ CaseyResearch.com




Silver Contracts Coming to Shanghai Futures Exchange

by Michelle Smith, Silver Investing News:
As of May 10, there will be more diversity in silver futures. On that day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) will begin trading silver contracts, providing Chinese investors with direct access to the market. Regulators hope that this new trading option will provide China with a pricing mechanism, a tool to control price volatility, and that it will be beneficial to silver-related enterprises. Market watchers suggest that SFE contracts could prove bullish for silver prices and that they could make market manipulation more difficult.
Although it is a leading producer of silver and one of the top consumers of the metal, China has been largely sitting on the sidelines, taking cues from London and the US when it comes to silver prices. However, the Chinese now want more influence in the pricing of silver and want a tool to tame the volatility. Regulators seem to believe that silver futures are key to accomplishing these goals.
Read More @ SilverInvestingNews.com




Black Gold market may reappear in Vietnam

from Bullion Street:
HANOI: As Vietnam Gold Decree deadline of May 25 approaching, gold trading in the nation become quieter than ever before.
Analysts said transactions are sharply down while a long-existing difference between domestic and global prices has almost closed.
They said country’s gold bullion market has gone very quiet as it waits on a Government decree vesting management of gold trading in the central bank to take effect on May 25.
Under the decree, from May 25, 2012, the use of gold in payment will be considered a behavior of violating the laws. The State will have the exclusive right for trading gold, while commercial banks will act as its agents.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com



Hathaway – Complete Flush in Gold & Savers to Get Screwed

from KingWorldNews:
Four decade veteran John Hathaway, told King World News that we have seen a complete flush in the gold market. The prolific manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund also said Europe is beyond saving and gold will benefit from the continued chaos. Here are the critical observations by one of the most extraordinary 5-star rated Morningstar fund managers: “I just think we’ve had a complete flush. You know they’ve been hitting stops for the last couple of days. I feel like the worst is past. People are shunning this area and this is going to be the place to be going forward.
John Hathaway Continues @ KingWorldNews.com




The People Have Spoken!

by Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin:
TPTB – led by the HEAD CRIMINAL IN CHARGE, the U.S. GOVERNMENT – wants nothing more than a continuation of the status quo, in which they maintain the world’s power and wealth, while “the 99%” live in misery, angst, and poverty. Unfortunately, Math 101 works against them, catching up to their fiat PONZI SCHEME like a speeding locomotive. Their only remaining weapon is the three pronged stratagem of MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA, but the rub of this plan is it makes the situation worse, propping up zombie nations, municipalities, corporation, and individuals with more suffocating, life-draining debt. The game ends when CONFIDENCE in their ability to continue this game ends, an inevitable revelation that will occur no matter what TPTB attempt to mask or defer it. Ultimately, the debt grows so large, its growth shifts from rapid to exponential to parabolic to hyperbolic – the latter stage ushering in HYPERINFLATION.
Read More @ Miles Franklin.com




Capital Account: Nigel Farage on the “EU Titanic” and the “Rebirth of National Socialism in Europe”

from CapitalAccount:

French and Greek elections: Lessons for U.S.

by Jeanne Sahadi, Money.CNN.com:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The French and Greek election results are being viewed as a smackdown on austerity.
In France, Socialist Francois Hollande won the presidential election, defeating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, who supported the compact to increase fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.
There are at least two key lessons for fiscal policymakers in the United States, where debt is on track to reach unsustainable levels in the next decade or two.
Read More @ Money.CNN.com




U.S. military conducts ‘realistic urban training’ exercise in Miami

by Madison Ruppert, Activist Post
Miami residents were startled to hear the sound of low-flying military helicopters and explosions emanating from the abandoned Grand Bay Hotel in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
It turns out that the United States military was conducting a “realistic urban training” exercise involving some 100 soldiers organized by the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM).
This is just one of many military exercises being held on American soil in recent years, including an inter-agency exercise conducted in my local area of Los Angeles. My attempts to obtain any information on that drill were thwarted and/or ignored by the Los Angeles Police Department.
Read More @ Activist Post



Knowing the Game

by Ted Butler, Silver Seek:
Especially at times of price pressure like now, it can be reassuring to know how the game is being played. I’m not speaking of the day to day price movements, but of the dominant forces that generally cause both short term and long term price movements. The price of world silver and gold is mostly set on the COMEX. Over the longer term, of course, other things will influence the price, such as production and consumption and investment demand. But these longer term influences don’t change radically from day to day and it is usually unproductive to link those influences to short term prices. And sometimes, like now, world events would strongly favor a rush towards precious metals were it not for price-setting on the COMEX.
So how is the price of silver and gold set on the COMEX? The price is set as a result of the continuous competition between what are called commercial traders and speculators (aka non-commercials). However, the term commercial trader is a misnomer for the most part as these traders are usually just speculating.
Read More @ Silver Seek




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