Central Banks Helpless As Denmark Goes NIRP, Cuts Deposit Rate To NEGATIVE 0.2%
A few days ago we noted that the ECB may well be contemplating the monetary neutron bomb, which would see it lower rates to below zero, ushering in a Negative Interest Rate Policy. Today, Mario Draghi cut such speculation short promising the ECB has not discussed this. Yet one bank which certainly has is the Danish Central Bank, which just lowered its Discount Rate to 0%, joining China, England, the ECB, and, of course, Kenya in easing, but also went one step further and cut its deposit rate to negative 0.2%. Keep a note of this: NIRP is coming to a central bank, and shortly thereafter to a bank deposit branch, near you very soon.
Goldman Raises Tomorrow's NFP Forecast By 50K To 125,000
Following today's two better than expected employment data points, it was only natural that the world's fastest revising bank would go ahead and promptly revise their forecast for tomorrow's NFP higher. Sure enough... "We are upgrading our forecast for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report to +125k, from +75k previously."Initial Claims Beat Expectations For First Time In 2 Months, Prior Revised Worse
It is unclear if today's surprising beat in both ADP and, just released, Initial Claims, is supposed to set the stage for a much better NFP tomorrow, in order to justify the lack of QE, for at least a few more months, and to validate that Fed's ongoing silence even as the BOE, PBOC and ECB have all eased. What is clear is that after 6 weeks of misses, initial claims finally posted a beat, printing at 374K, better than expectations of 385K, and down from last week's 386K print which as always was revised upward to 388K. Those on EUC and Extended Benefits continued to decline with just under 30K dropping off the 99 week cliff. Finally, if indeed it is Bernanke's intention to telegraph that there will be no QE because the economy is, don't laugh, suddenly improving now, the market will be very, very unhappy.
Non-Manufacturing ISM Follows Its Manufacturing Cousin Lower, Misses Expectations
After the manufacturing ISM printed in contractionary territory a few days ago, there weren't many high expectations for today's Non-manufacturing ISM number. Which is good: printing at 52.1, it was a miss to expectations of 53.0, and down from 53.7. This was the 3rd month in a row of drops, and the 3rd downside miss in the last 4 data releases. Spin: at least it was above 50. And also the employment number rose. Which of course is the last thing the market needs, because if NFP comes much better than expected tomorrow, kiss more NEW QE goodbye for a while.Update: 6.80%.... This Time Wasn't Different After All: Spain at 6.66%
After printing just under 6.20% on Monday, the Spanish 10 Year is back to satanic 6.66%. Time for another summit.Futures Turn Negative, EUR Back To Pre-Summit Levels Following Global Easefest
In
continuing the quantum physics scramble of the past 48 hours in the
aftermath of the potential Higgs Boson discovery which confirms mass
exists (and will soon be blamed for America's obesity epidemic) we ask if
three of the world's largest central banks eased and futures turned
red, did three of the world's largest central banks actually ease?
Because if today is any indication, either all the EURUSD-ES algos are
being furiously shut down right now to prevent risk from being dragged
far lower, or we have reached peak central planner intervention. In
other news, the entire EURUSD ramp since last week's summit is now gone,
which incidentally is just what Germany always wanted.Oil Prices May Have Hit Bottom: Expert Sees Energy Prices Rising
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
The probability of a trend change increase significantly when money flow
become concentrated. A diffusion index reading above 60% suggests
concentration. The crude oil market recorded a diffusion index (DI)
reading of 66% on June 19th at $84.03 West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The
last time crude crossed above 60% was 9/27/2011 at $84.45...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]The Socialization Of America Is Economically Impossible
I
understand the dream of the common socialist. I was, after all, once a
Democrat. I understand the disparity created in our society by
corporatism (not capitalism, though some foolish socialists see them as
exactly the same). I understand the drive and the desire to help other
human beings, especially those in dire need, and the tendency to see
government as the ultimate solution to all our problems. That said,
let’s be honest; government is in the end just a tool used by one group
or another to implement a particular methodology or set of principles.
Unfortunately, what most socialists today don’t seem to understand is
that no matter what strategies they devise, they will NEVER have
control. And, those they wish to help will be led to suffer, because
the establishment does not care about them, or you. The establishment
does not think of what it can give, it thinks about what it can take.
Socialism, in the minds of the elites, is a con-game which allows them
to quarry the favor of the serfs, and nothing more. There are other
powers at work in this world; powers that have the ability to play both
sides of the political spectrum. The money elite have been wielding
the false left/right paradigm for centuries, and to great effect.
Whether socialism or corporatism prevails, they are the final victors,
and the game continues onward… Knowing this fact, I find that my
reactions to the entire Obamacare debate rather muddled.
Really, I see the whole event as a kind of circus, a mirage, a
distraction. Perhaps it is because I am first and foremost an economic
analyst, and when looking at Obamacare and socialization in general, I
see no tangibility. I see no threat beyond what we as Americans already face. Let me explain…It Actually Is A Coodinated Global Central Bank Intervention
The PBOC, the BOE and now the ECB all cut, and still futures are tumbling. This latest news however will certainly send futures soaring:- KENYA CENTRAL BANK CUTS BENCHMARK RATE TO 16.5% FROM 18%
- KENYA INFLATION HAS FALLEN TOWARD SHORT-TERM 9% TARGET
Mario Draghi Press Conference Webcast
Update: no LTRO 3. Newsletter writers who sell hope, prayer and magic are issuing refunds. Stock futures sliding fast.We already know that the ECB broke is unspoken cardinal rule and cut rates below 1%. Will Mario Draghi also hint at what everyone who sells newsletters based on hope, prayer and magic is really hoping for: LTRO 3? Tune in and find out.
ADP Says Better Than Expected 176K Private Jobs Added, Of Which Only 4,000 Manufactuing Jobs
The ADP Private jobs report is out, and in June America allegedly created 176K private jobs, better than expectations of 100K, and up from last month's 136K revised print. What hasn't changed is the continued lack of correlation between the ADP and the NFP report, nor the ongoing deterioration in claims. More importantly, Obama's promise of doubling US exports in 5 years from 2 years ago may be in jeopardy, since of the 176,000K extra jobs created, a whopping 4K was in manufacturing, the rest, or 160,000K, was service jobs.ECB Cuts Rates By 25 Basis Points, Joins Global Central Bank Extarvaganza
The global central bank market propping continues with the ECB following in the footsteps of the BOE and PBOC, and cutting its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 0.75%, and the deposit rate to 0%. EURUSD slides. In other news, today the BOE, PBOC and now ECB have all eased.... and ES is up a whopping 0.2%. Houston: we have a problem.
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Frontrunning: July 5
- Finland (which with Holland account for 50% of the Eurozone's AAA rated countries), just says "Ei" to stripping ESM subordination (Bloomberg)
- Libor Rate Scandal Set to Spread (WSJ)
- #ByeBarclays flashmob descends on bank (FinExtra)
- What is financial reform in China? (Pettis)
- Cities Consider Seizing Mortgages (WSJ)
- China Beige Book Shows Pickup Unseen in Official Data (BBG)
- China’s New Rules May Curb Credit Growth, CBRC Official Says (BBG)
- India Said to Pay in Euros for Iranian Oil Due to Rupee Hurdles (BBG)
- Wealthy Hit Hardest as France Raises Taxes (FT)
- Euro Bank Supervisor Faces Hurdles (WSJ)
Bank Of England Hikes QE By £50 Billion As Expected, As China Cuts Benchmark Rate In Surprising Move
While everyone was expecting the BOE to return back to QEasing with a £50 Billion increase in its asset purchase program(me), to a total of £375 billion, which is what just happened, the bigger news came 1 second before the BOE announcement, with China declaring it has cut benchmark interest rates as once again the fate of the whole world is in the hands of small groups of academics, promising each other bottles of Bollinger if they can only get the S&P500 over 1,400. In other words, once again small groups of people around the world sat down and conspired (perfectly legally) to manipulate global interest rates. No hearings are scheduled.Spain Sells 10 Year Paper, Yields Jump; Ireland Is Not Uganda
So much for the latest European bail out. Not even a full week after the last European dead of night summit, which supposedly "was different this time", and Spanish bond yields have already retraced virtually the entire move lower, and after sliding to as low as 6.1%, are now back to 6.62% as of this morning, 22 bps wider on the day, as a result of the now generic realization that nothing actually changed, and also following the latest abysmal and unsustainable (there's that key word again) auction out of Spain, which sold bonds due 2015, 2016 and 2022, even as its default risk is now wider than that of Ireland.
by Jim Willie, Gold Seek:
Few observers make the connection, but the current LIBOR scandal is a
middle inning of two important events. The first is the demise of the
Western banker leadership crew. The executives from the most powerful
banks will be last to be deposed, all sharing an ethnic strain. The
second is the open fracture of the Western financial system. Over the
past few years, to be sure a great many people have grown tired of
Jackass descriptions of corruption within the banking sector and
financial system in general. Well, hear this: TOLD YA SO! The London
Interbank Offered Rate scandal will erupt into an uncontrollable
firestorm, hitting one chamber and then the next, with rapid contagion. The Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are both implicated, but they will skate until the end game.
They control the prosecutors and the news networks. Few yet connect the
LIBOR rigged prices to the important parts of the financial kingdom run
by the harried banker elite. The supposedly informed experts point to
the rigged low rates for adjustable rate mortgages, for credit cards,
and for student loans. Only the ARM rate is important among these, since
it kept and housing bubble going. If truth be told, the LIBOR anomalies
have persisted since late 2008. The intrepid first class forensic bond
analyst Rob Kirby linked the sordid trails and mismatched discrepancies of the LIBOR to the JPMorgan monster,
the US Federal Reserve syndicate ring leader, and the USDept Treasury
(haven for Goldman Sachs lieutenants). See his 2008 article on Financial
Sense (CLICK HERE).
Regulators have done nothing for four years. It was not fully
appreciated at the time, like it might be today. The LIBOR should match
the settled EuroDollar contract, but it has not for years. The evidence
for price rig has been glaring for years. The big banks have skimmed the
difference for profit for years. Imagine selling milk or concrete with a
variation in price at the wholesale level, enabling vast profits from
skimming. It has been permitted for the big banks, a grand blemish on an
already scarred sector.Read More @ GoldSeek.com
Today’s Items:
Iran is facing spiraling inflation and its
currency lost 50 percent in one year. Iran’s government needs its
sanctioned oil prices to go up a lot higher to help stabilize its
economy. The possible solution is to mine the strait of Hormuz and cut
off oil; so that oil prices will increase. The U.S. response is to move
military reinforcements into the area to stop Iran from doing this. The
problem… China and Russia are backing Iran…. Not good.
According to Michael Pento, worldwide PMI
manufacturing data indicating worldwide growth has retreated to 2%.
Brazil’s GDP fell from 7.5% in 2010 to just 2% today. Central banks in
China, Britain, Europe and America have indicated more printing around
the corner. Once the printing begins in earnest, real GDP will contract
as inflation takes off. That is the time that you will want to have been
preparing for and stacking for.
A new study, funded by the Department of
Homeland Insecurity, states if you believe in any of the following, then
you are a terrorist.
1. If you believe your way of life is under attack
2. If you are suspicious of centralized federal authority.
3. If you are referent of individual liberty.
Essentially, if you do not believe everything you hear and see from the media and the politicians.
1. If you believe your way of life is under attack
2. If you are suspicious of centralized federal authority.
3. If you are referent of individual liberty.
Essentially, if you do not believe everything you hear and see from the media and the politicians.
The size and quality of the U.S. corn crop
continues to deteriorate as scorching heat in the corn belt threatens
the crop. The amount of corn in excellent condition has dropped from 56
to 48 percent in one week. In addition, a drop from 53 to 45 percent is
reported for soybeans in the same period. In short, as this may be
indicative of other food crops, get ready for massive increases at the
supermarket.
Prominent conservatives, like Rupert
Murdock, believe that Romney does not have what it takes to beat Obama.
Really? Could it be that Romney is just another version of Obama?
Seriously, how is one supposed to debate their own ideas with any real
credibility. Despite the claims by both of these fools, Obama and Romney
are of the same mind on many issues.
With the announcement, by the U.S.
Preventive Services Task Force, that postmenopausal women should avoid
taking vitamin D, the U.S. government has essentially jumped the shark.
The most likely motive for outlawing Vitamin D is simple… It takes
profit away from the drug companies since it is affective against cancer
and other diseases. Most nutritionists recommend 4,000 IUs of Vitamin D
daily…. At least until it is declared illegal.
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