from CapitalAccount:
Welcome to Capital Account. US manufacturing activity contracts for the first time in 3 years…the weak ISM data came as a shock to economists reportedly. Then orders placed with U.S. factories rose in May for the first time in three months, according to other data. We’ll talk about where figures show global confidence, crises, and slowdowns are headed with famed investor Jim Rogers.
Also…Blackrock’s Vice Chairman Byron Wien says he spoke to the smartest man in Europe, and what he had to say terrified him. He said, “basically, that massive amounts of debt will bring the decline of Western Civilization, but that in the meantime, before that happens, policy makers would pull every trick they could in order to stave off a catastrophic event.”
Why do you have to be the un-named smartest man as christened by a Blackstone bigwig for that to hold weight? Just watch a lot of smart men and women who break this down openly any given day on Capital Account. Today, commodities guru Jim Rogers will do the honors.
The EU is Out of Money. End of Story. And Neither the Fed Nor the ECB Can "Print" To Save the Day
07/03/2012 - 15:55
07/03/2012 - 13:36
Untitled
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 1 hour ago
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold had a good time climbing by $24.10 to $1621.30. Silver was up 77
cents to $28.44.
It seems that gold and silver are now decoupling from the markets. I
would like to emphasize that the European summit accomplished nothing.
We were basically lied to as we were told that seniority of bonds will
not be part of the picture. That is not true as GermanyOn The Inevitability Of EU-thanasia
Starting
from the level of global savings and forecasts by the IMF, Lombard
Street Research's Charles Dumas explains to the FT's John Authers how
this 'glut' of global savings exacerbated by 'accounting' of negative
economic policies is choking economic growth. This fiscal
responsibility versus growth (saving vs. investment) argument is nowhere
more evident (for now) than in Europe, where the two chaps progress,
in this worthwhile clip, to the extremely dispersed (and not at all
united) unit labor costs of European nations as the crux of where Europe
goes next. In Dumas' words: "people have got to make up their minds how much they are prepared to pay and for how long"
and the longer the time where these relative costs diverge the greater
the inevitable costs, leaving only two EU solutions: either the 'Irish'
mass-emigration/devalue/economic-collapse in the hopes of improving
competitiveness; or 'inflation in Germany' - which is abhorrent to the
people of that country. The only possible route back to growth in the short-term is an 'amicable' break-up of the Euro
- which as Dumas points out is attractive politically to Ms. Merkel
heading into next year's election (as opposed to her keep having to
back-down again and again). This is in line with our view that when push
comes to a big shove, Germany will be the optimal defection from the game-theoretical game of chicken being played in Europe (and anyone who feels the technical measures from the last summit solve the problems, in Auther's words "is being very 'hopeful' indeed").In Living Will Color: Translating What The Banks Really Said
In
honor of the FDIC releasing the living wills for banks, we thought
we’d offer up a shorter version that the banks could use. You're
welcome.Watch David Einhorn In The World Series Of Poker's Charity Big Drop Event
David Einhorn is kicking ass and taking names, currently in 4th at the WSOP 2012 with over $16 million in chips (having just won an all in with pocket Aces). Select US viewers can watch the live stream below direct from the ESPN2 website. To everyone else, we are confident a 3rd party livestream can be found elsewhere.
Guest Post: The Death Of China Cult
The past few years have produced an impression of the Chinese government that it is invincible, and it has miraculous control over the economic machine,
that the slowdown is “intentionally” engineered by the government and
everything within the economy is still very much under control.
Unfortunately, most who use this argument to justify that the slowdown
is not a big problem have all invariably forgotten that most economic
slowdowns in recent memories started with central banks tightening
monetary policy to control inflation and slow down the economy, and
most, if not all, of the cases ended with recession that they did not
want to get into. Many have also not realized how difficult it would
be for China to relate its way out of a debt deflation. So how different China is in this regard is totally beyond our comprehension, and we are forced to suggest that the believers of China cult have gone delusional.
As the economic slowdown becomes a reality and a hard landing
unavoidable, more of the problems we have identified will surface. The
cult will surely die within the next few years at most. The only
questions are when it will finally die, and whether it will suffer a
violent death or slow death.And Now The Fed Gets Dragged Into LiEborgate
As was first reported two days ago, and confirmed today, Barclays' natural response to allegations it single-handedly manipulated the interest rate complex for up to $500 trillion notional in IR-sensitive swaps and other products (it didn't - everyone else did it too), was to drag everyone into the scandal, starting off with the Bank of England (and about to drag Whitehall into it too), and specifically the man who was next in line for governorship of the English Central Bank: Paul Tucker. What does this mean? Well, as we suggested also two days ago, now that the natural succession path at the BOE has been terminally derailed, it brings up those two other gentlemen already brought up previously as potential future heads of the BOE, both of whom just happened to work, or still do, at... Goldman Sachs: Canada's Mark Carney or Goldman's Jim O'Neil. Granted both have denied press speculation they will replace Mervyn King, but it's not like it would be the first time a banker lied to anyone now, would it (and makes one wonder if this whole affair was not merely orchestrated by the Squid from the get go... but no, that would be a 'conspiracy theory'.) Yet the fact that Goldman is hell bent on global domination by stretching its tentacles into every monetary policy administration is no secret: it is only a matter of time before GS also runs the English CTRL-P macros. More interesting is that in addition to the BOE, Barclays today also dragged America's very own Federal Reserve into the fray.Americans Caught Off Guard Yet Again. Millions Without Power, Food & Water as Deadly Storm Hits U.S.
from Off Grid Survival:
Millions of people across the mid-Atlantic region of the United States
are without power as a swarm of violent storms took out power lines
throughout the country. And yet again, most Americans have been caught
completely off guard.STATE OF EMERGENCY
After what’s being called a “Historic Storm” made it’s way across parts of the east coast, a State of Emergency has been declared in Maryland, West Virginia, Ohio, the District of Columbia and Virginia.
As many as three million people have been without power for over 72 hours and officials are warning that some areas could be without power until late in the week. At least 18 people are dead and officials are warning that the record setting heat in the region could compound the problem.
Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com
from TruthNeverTold :
from The Daily Paul:
1938 Austria
America truly is the Greatest Country in the World.
By: Kitty Werthmann (85 yrs.old)
What I am about to tell you is something you’ve probably never heard or will ever read in history books.
I believe that I am an eyewitness to history. I cannot tell you that Hitler took Austria by tanks and guns; it would distort history. We elected him by a landslide – 98% of the vote. I’ve never read that in any American publications. Everyone thinks that Hitler just rolled in with his tanks and took Austria by force. In 1938, Austria was in deep Depression. Nearly one-third of our workforce was unemployed. We had 25% inflation and 25% bank loan interest rates. Farmers and business people were declaring bankruptcy daily. Young people were going from house to house begging for food. Not that they didn’t want to work; there simply weren’t any jobs. My mother was a Christian woman and believed in helping people in need. Every day we cooked a big kettle of soup and baked bread to feed those poor, hungry people – about 30 daily.
The Communist Party and the National Socialist Party were fighting each other. Blocks and blocks of cities like Vienna , Linz , and Graz were destroyed. The people became desperate and petitioned the government to let them decide what kind of government they wanted.
Read More @ DailyPaul.com
I'm PayPal Verified
1938 Austria
America truly is the Greatest Country in the World.
By: Kitty Werthmann (85 yrs.old)
What I am about to tell you is something you’ve probably never heard or will ever read in history books.
I believe that I am an eyewitness to history. I cannot tell you that Hitler took Austria by tanks and guns; it would distort history. We elected him by a landslide – 98% of the vote. I’ve never read that in any American publications. Everyone thinks that Hitler just rolled in with his tanks and took Austria by force. In 1938, Austria was in deep Depression. Nearly one-third of our workforce was unemployed. We had 25% inflation and 25% bank loan interest rates. Farmers and business people were declaring bankruptcy daily. Young people were going from house to house begging for food. Not that they didn’t want to work; there simply weren’t any jobs. My mother was a Christian woman and believed in helping people in need. Every day we cooked a big kettle of soup and baked bread to feed those poor, hungry people – about 30 daily.
The Communist Party and the National Socialist Party were fighting each other. Blocks and blocks of cities like Vienna , Linz , and Graz were destroyed. The people became desperate and petitioned the government to let them decide what kind of government they wanted.
Read More @ DailyPaul.com
from Azizonomics:
Simon Jack of the BBC asks a question that many of us have already answered:
Gold v paper money: Which should we trust more?
Fortunately, this gives way to some relatively fair coverage:
Detlev Schlichter is a former banker and the author of Paper Money Collapse and he says the current system is fatally flawed.
“The problem is that what we use as money can be created and produced by the privileged money producers – which are the central bank and the banking system.They can produce as much of this money as they like. And so the supply of this form of money is entirely elastic, it is entirely flexible.”
Detlev Schlichter believes this will, ultimately, lead to people losing faith in our current system of elastic money and turning to something that does not stretch – like gold.
The key point to add to this of course is that gold is not just insurance against dilution, it is more importantly insurance against counter-party risk:
Counter-party risk is the external risk investments face. The counter-party risk to fiat currency is that the counter-party — in this case the government — will fail to deliver a system where that fiat money will be acceptable as payment for goods and services. The counter-party risk to a bond or a derivative or a swap is that the counter-party will default on their obligations.
Read More @ Azizonomics.com
from silverguru:
from Matlarson10:
Simon Jack of the BBC asks a question that many of us have already answered:Gold v paper money: Which should we trust more?
Fortunately, this gives way to some relatively fair coverage:
Detlev Schlichter is a former banker and the author of Paper Money Collapse and he says the current system is fatally flawed.
“The problem is that what we use as money can be created and produced by the privileged money producers – which are the central bank and the banking system.They can produce as much of this money as they like. And so the supply of this form of money is entirely elastic, it is entirely flexible.”
Detlev Schlichter believes this will, ultimately, lead to people losing faith in our current system of elastic money and turning to something that does not stretch – like gold.
The key point to add to this of course is that gold is not just insurance against dilution, it is more importantly insurance against counter-party risk:
Counter-party risk is the external risk investments face. The counter-party risk to fiat currency is that the counter-party — in this case the government — will fail to deliver a system where that fiat money will be acceptable as payment for goods and services. The counter-party risk to a bond or a derivative or a swap is that the counter-party will default on their obligations.
Read More @ Azizonomics.com
from silverguru:
from Matlarson10:
by Ethan A. Huff, Natural News:
The largest and most comprehensive natural history museum in the
Southeast, the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences (NCMNS) is one
of the premier educational destinations for both young and old alike to
learn about the natural world in a fun, interactive environment. But
this beacon of cultural enlightenment has apparently been infiltrated by
Monsanto and numerous other corporate interests, all of which were
allowed to give presentations at the museum’s recent “Biotechnology
Day.”
According to the NCMNS website, the International Society for Pharmaceutical Engineering (ISPE) partnered with Kelly Services, a local staffing agency, to hold the first ever Biotechnology Day at the museum, which was tag-lined with the somewhat menacing phrase “Biotechnology in Your Daily Life!” The stated goal of the event was to “demystify biotechnology” and enlighten the public as to how it affects their everyday lives.
“Organizations (companies, educational institutions, non-profits) from around the state will be participating with hands-on demonstrations, experiments and crafts,” says the event’s description. Included among these presenters were representatives from both the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, which were essentially given an open pulpit from which to indoctrinate the minds of young children into the dogma of drugs and GMOs (genetically-modified organisms).
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
The largest and most comprehensive natural history museum in the
Southeast, the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences (NCMNS) is one
of the premier educational destinations for both young and old alike to
learn about the natural world in a fun, interactive environment. But
this beacon of cultural enlightenment has apparently been infiltrated by
Monsanto and numerous other corporate interests, all of which were
allowed to give presentations at the museum’s recent “Biotechnology
Day.”According to the NCMNS website, the International Society for Pharmaceutical Engineering (ISPE) partnered with Kelly Services, a local staffing agency, to hold the first ever Biotechnology Day at the museum, which was tag-lined with the somewhat menacing phrase “Biotechnology in Your Daily Life!” The stated goal of the event was to “demystify biotechnology” and enlighten the public as to how it affects their everyday lives.
“Organizations (companies, educational institutions, non-profits) from around the state will be participating with hands-on demonstrations, experiments and crafts,” says the event’s description. Included among these presenters were representatives from both the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, which were essentially given an open pulpit from which to indoctrinate the minds of young children into the dogma of drugs and GMOs (genetically-modified organisms).
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
by Emma Rowley, The Telegraph:
The jump was driven by the current spell of hot, dry weather in the US
Midwest, which is suffering record-breaking temperatures in some areas.
Similar weather back in 1988, creating one of the most damaging droughts
in US history, cut the country’s corn production by more than 30pc.
Food price inflation is already a headache for policymakers around the globe, faced with the pressures of growing populations, rising urbanisation and changing diets.
That means the latest surge in crop prices state-side, with the US producing more than 40pc of global corn exports, is causing some concern. The dry weather is also affecting the Black Sea producers, as well as those on the North China Plain.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
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The jump was driven by the current spell of hot, dry weather in the US
Midwest, which is suffering record-breaking temperatures in some areas.
Similar weather back in 1988, creating one of the most damaging droughts
in US history, cut the country’s corn production by more than 30pc.Food price inflation is already a headache for policymakers around the globe, faced with the pressures of growing populations, rising urbanisation and changing diets.
That means the latest surge in crop prices state-side, with the US producing more than 40pc of global corn exports, is causing some concern. The dry weather is also affecting the Black Sea producers, as well as those on the North China Plain.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
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from RTAmerica:
In Britain there are already millions of CCTV cameras at street corners across the country, but this privacy issue could get a little worse. The UK plans on installing black boxes to monitor email, telephone calls and online activity that will store the information for more than a year.
My Dear Friends,
“We view gold as a currency, not a commodity. Its importance as a currency will continue to increase as the major central banks around the world continue to print money.” He adds that as the market keeps shuddering, demand for gold will stay high, and soon enough all of his depressed gold holdings should shoot up. He also thinks that anyone in Greece, Italy, and France should pull all their money out of the banking system and purchase gold bars before the Continent collapses. –John Paulson, founder of Paulson & Co., in Business Week June 28, 2012
My Dear Friends,
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Mammoth Lakes files for bankruptcy July 2, 2012 | 2:05 pm
The High Sierra town of Mammoth Lakes said Monday that it filed for bankruptcy because it cannot afford to pay a $43-million breach-of-contract judgment against it brought by a developer.
In a prepared statement, Mammoth Lakes officials said "bankruptcy, unfortunately, is the only option left" for the town, whose largest creditor, Mammoth Lakes Land Acquisition, had won a state court order requiring full payment by June 30, 2012.
Facing a judgment nearly three times the size of its annual operating budget and a $2.8-million shortfall in its 2011-12 fiscal year, the town had already cut many services and asked employees to take reductions in pay. Compounding problems, the adjacent Mammoth Mountain ski resort was forced to lay off 70 full-time employees last year due to a dearth of snow.
A breakdown in negotiations with the developer was the last straw.
The town plans to ask the bankruptcy court to approve a payment plan it claims is the most it can afford without jeopardizing the safety of residents and tourists: $500,000 a year over the next 10 years.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Iran lawmakers prepare to close Hormuz Strait Published: 02 July, 2012, 18:26
Edited: 03 July, 2012, 02:31
Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill that would close the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers heading to countries supporting current economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
"There is a bill prepared in the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of Parliament that stresses the blocking of oil tanker traffic carrying oil to countries that have sanctioned Iran," Iranian MP Ibrahim Agha-Mohammadi told reporters.
"This bill has been developed as an answer to the European Union’s oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Agha-Mohammadi said that 100 of Tehran’s 290 members of parliament had signed the bill as of Sunday.
Iran’s threats to block the waterway through which about 17 million barrels a day sailed in 2011 have grown in the past year as US and European sanctions aimed at starving Tehran of funds for its nuclear programme have tightened.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route through which most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq and nearly all the gas exported from Qatar sails.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Barclays’ Libor Scandal: Prison Will Remedy
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 2, 2012 7:11 AM
Many executives on Wall Street and in The City, London’s central business district, have reason to be VERY NERVOUS this morning.
Their sweaty palms have nothing to do with the ongoing crisis in Europe or this week’s likely weak employment report here in the United States. The nerves have everything to do with the fallout from the Libor-manipulation story that has been centered on Barclays but likely encompasses every major bank in the global markets.
The industry would like to take one large broom and sweep this story back under the rug. The weekend ‘execution’ of Barclays chairman Marcus Agius is an attempt to do just that.
This Libor intrigue is only the latest of the financial industry’s market manipulation schemes. What do people think was going on in the auction-rate securities markets? How about the daily trading within the equity markets?
Manipulating markets has gone on for ages. As a resident member of the Sense on Cents Hall of Fame shared with us a few years back, “markets don’t go up, they’re put up.”
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
U.S. Adds Forces in Persian Gulf, a Signal to Iran By THOM SHANKER, ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER.
WASHINGTON — The United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates.
The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”
But at a moment that the United States and its allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo on Iran’s oil exports, meant to force the country to take seriously the negotiations over sharply limiting its nuclear program, the buildup carries significant risks, including that Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps could decide to lash out against the increased presence.
The most visible elements of this buildup are Navy ships designed to vastly enhance the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz — and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters from sending their tankers through the vital passage.
The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what military officers describe as a purely defensive move.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Congress Said to Consider Delaying Automatic Budget Cuts By Roxana Tiron – Jun 26, 2012 5:47 PM ET
Republican and Democratic congressional leaders are weighing whether to delay automatic federal spending cuts until March 2013, according to a House aide and industry officials who were briefed on the discussions.
The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts over a decade, half of which would affect the Defense Department, are scheduled to begin in January 2013. At the same time, lawmakers must decide what to do about income tax cuts and other tax breaks scheduled to expire at the end of the year.
Leaders in both chambers are discussing whether to propose a catch-all bill that would delay the automatic cuts, fund the government through March or later and temporarily extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and other tax laws, said the House aide and industry officials, who asked to speak on condition of anonymity.
“It is being seriously considered as one of the options and there is no doubt about that,” Steve Bell, the senior director of the Economic Policy Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in an interview.
The measure would follow a short-term stopgap spending bill to keep the government operating after the start of the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, the people said.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Hello Jim,
Singapore is abolishing the 7% tax on gold purchase from October this year. It seems the government here wants to encourage its citizens to hold gold as a part of their saving/national reserve as seen in China.
The monsoon season will start in October here in SE Asia and India. Let’s see if the rains will bring back rupees and farmers in our market.
Thank you,
CIGA Yoshiki
Dear Jim,
In a sick twist on the "man robs bank" theme, "bank robs man" fits the scenario better, or to be even more accurate "bankers rob taxpayers!"
Thus, "The Great Bank Robbery" has become instead "The Great Taxpayer Robbery."
As LIE-BORgate unfolds like Sir Walter Scott’s Marmion, or for something more contemporary, "MF Global," please consider this:
- The LIBOR rate was under manipulation in 2008.
- The interbank lending rate spike (and credit freeze) was partly the product of LIBOR manipulation.
- Since LIBOR affects credit availability the "bailouts" were ostensibly to offset the freezing of credit.
- By manipulating (rigging) LIBOR, banks were manipulating a variable directly connected to the bailouts.
- The banking system sucked $29 trillion out of the taxpayers post-2008.
Do you think the freeze was intended and designed to get bigger and faster bailouts?
Regards,
CIGA Richard S.
Mr. Sinclair,
With all the whining emails you get I wanted to say how much I appreciate your efforts. When I started moving out of paper into PMs back in 2006, I was less
than three years from a myocardial infarction and retirement at fifty-nine.
You were our only financial anchor and what a blessing you have been to us.
However by continually following your articles we have realized the following:
My wife and I are completely free of the slavery of the Dark Side! If
all paper were to implode tomorrow we would not have a financial worry
in this world.
Keep up the wonderful work and be confident that my wife and I are forever grateful for your generosity and kindness.
CIGA Kerry
Housing Rebound or Relapse? CIGA Eric
Negative equity, restricted access to credit, and falling demand will continue to prevent a meaningful recovery for years to come despite recent influx of hope (Housing Rebound or Relapse?). Why? The recent up tick in new home sales must be framed within the context of ebb and flow of time. Once positive momentum reached the sell zone on February 2012 (chart), it increased the probability that a period of ebb has begun.
Chart: New Home Sales And Change YOY, SA
Headline: Housing recovery hindered by negative equity
Scott Andresen would love to sell his Seattle house. He just can’t afford to. The 41-year-old policeman and his wife, Rebecca, an environmental consultant, bought the house six years ago. Because of falling prices, they now owe at least $25,000 more on it than it’s worth. The couple would like to move to a better neighborhood with better schools for their children, ages 7 and 4. But they’d have to write a check to cover the difference. "We can’t get out, because it would be too expensive," Andresen says. "It’s very frustrating." Homeowners like the Andresens inhabit just about every housing market nationwide, and their reluctance to sell is having an unexpected impact on the U.S. housing market, which is showing signs of stabilizing after years of declining prices. Rather than a housing market defined by weak demand and falling prices, the market is now being hampered by a restricted supply of homes for sale as demand improves. That’s leading to multiple offers in dozens of markets, rising prices in some and a more volatile housing recovery than many expected.
Source: usatoday.com
More…
Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge CIGA Eric
A combination of monetary inflation and unusually hot and dry weather is beginning to reverse the downward momentum in the CRB foodstuffs and spot indices (chart 1 and 2). The public’s patience with monetary inflation will disappear quickly when rising input costs pushes consumer prices higher in the months ahead.
Chart 1: CRBFoodstuffs And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change
Chart 2: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change
Headline: Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge
The jump was driven by the current spell of hot, dry weather in the US Midwest, which is suffering record-breaking temperatures in some areas. Similar weather back in 1988, creating one of the most damaging droughts in US history, cut the country’s corn production by more than 30pc. Food price inflation is already a headache for policymakers around the globe, faced with the pressures of growing populations, rising urbanisation and changing diets. That means the latest surge in crop prices state-side, with the US producing more than 40pc of global corn exports, is causing some concern. The dry weather is also affecting the Black Sea producers, as well as those on the North China Plain. High levels of planting by farmers had stoked hopes for bumper US supplies this year, to replenish inventories that are near record lows and ease pressures on food prices. But when corn plants are stressed by drought conditions, the result is lower yields from the fields. "The corn crop is entering the key pollinating and yield-setting period and continued dry weather is a big concern for yields," said analysts at Barclays Capital. "The optimistic scenario of agricultural surpluses that 2012 was supposed to herald may not transpire."
Source: telegraph.co.uk
More…
In Britain there are already millions of CCTV cameras at street corners across the country, but this privacy issue could get a little worse. The UK plans on installing black boxes to monitor email, telephone calls and online activity that will store the information for more than a year.
My Dear Friends,
Gold will go to and above $3500. This is the most important message I have sent you since 2001.
There are very few of us dynamic thinkers that see everything as a
trend constantly in motion. Anyone can be a static thinker, quoting
recent economic figures or news headline (MSM), and coming up with a
usually wrong opinion.
The change today is that the "Rig Is Up."
The Bank of England turning their backs on Barclays, the company who
did their bidding, will be the event in time marking the trend change.
Many of us in our areas of activity will successfully fight the
Riggers. The many complaints that so many of you kindly sent in to fight
manipulation released the Kraken in me.
The Kraken is back in its cage where it belongs. The paper trail is
there. The worm has turned. Even more importantly is that this fight in
the $1540 gold price area was not for regaining the old high in gold.
The six attempts to kill gold, supported by some gold writers looking
for favors from the riggers was a now failed attempt to keep gold from
trading above $3500.
The battle to stop gold has been lost.
The start, like all starts towards the old high and well above,
should be slow with more unfolding drama. It will build on itself but
gold will trade at and above $3500. I am now as certain of this as I was
over ten years ago when I told you gold was headed for $1650. I knew
that as fact and to me from $248 gold was trading at $1650.
My job now is to define gold’s full valuation for you when it occurs.
The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three
years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you.
This is the most important message I have written you since early in
2001. I write this with total intellectual and spiritual certainty.
Respectfully,
Jim
Jim
“We view gold as a currency, not a commodity. Its importance as a currency will continue to increase as the major central banks around the world continue to print money.” He adds that as the market keeps shuddering, demand for gold will stay high, and soon enough all of his depressed gold holdings should shoot up. He also thinks that anyone in Greece, Italy, and France should pull all their money out of the banking system and purchase gold bars before the Continent collapses. –John Paulson, founder of Paulson & Co., in Business Week June 28, 2012
My Dear Friends,
I firmly believe that those who succumb to the noise of the gold
bears right now will miss more than 50% of the gold bull market and
infinitely more in the gold share sector.
Regards,
Jim
Jim
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The time has come that the worm has turned on the manipulators. Easy
short profits are going to be attacked by both the market, and civil
litigation.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is a little trickle that will become a flood in the next 2 years.
Mammoth Lakes files for bankruptcy July 2, 2012 | 2:05 pm
The High Sierra town of Mammoth Lakes said Monday that it filed for bankruptcy because it cannot afford to pay a $43-million breach-of-contract judgment against it brought by a developer.
In a prepared statement, Mammoth Lakes officials said "bankruptcy, unfortunately, is the only option left" for the town, whose largest creditor, Mammoth Lakes Land Acquisition, had won a state court order requiring full payment by June 30, 2012.
Facing a judgment nearly three times the size of its annual operating budget and a $2.8-million shortfall in its 2011-12 fiscal year, the town had already cut many services and asked employees to take reductions in pay. Compounding problems, the adjacent Mammoth Mountain ski resort was forced to lay off 70 full-time employees last year due to a dearth of snow.
A breakdown in negotiations with the developer was the last straw.
The town plans to ask the bankruptcy court to approve a payment plan it claims is the most it can afford without jeopardizing the safety of residents and tourists: $500,000 a year over the next 10 years.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
What a clout this would be to Europe.
Iran lawmakers prepare to close Hormuz Strait Published: 02 July, 2012, 18:26
Edited: 03 July, 2012, 02:31
Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill that would close the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers heading to countries supporting current economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
"There is a bill prepared in the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of Parliament that stresses the blocking of oil tanker traffic carrying oil to countries that have sanctioned Iran," Iranian MP Ibrahim Agha-Mohammadi told reporters.
"This bill has been developed as an answer to the European Union’s oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Agha-Mohammadi said that 100 of Tehran’s 290 members of parliament had signed the bill as of Sunday.
Iran’s threats to block the waterway through which about 17 million barrels a day sailed in 2011 have grown in the past year as US and European sanctions aimed at starving Tehran of funds for its nuclear programme have tightened.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route through which most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq and nearly all the gas exported from Qatar sails.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
If the real Libor was given in the crisis of 2008 – 2009 there would not have been a turn up in 2009.
You can wager that Libor-gate and Barclays got a go ahead nod from the Bank of England and others then became a habit.
Barclays’ Libor Scandal: Prison Will Remedy
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 2, 2012 7:11 AM
Many executives on Wall Street and in The City, London’s central business district, have reason to be VERY NERVOUS this morning.
Their sweaty palms have nothing to do with the ongoing crisis in Europe or this week’s likely weak employment report here in the United States. The nerves have everything to do with the fallout from the Libor-manipulation story that has been centered on Barclays but likely encompasses every major bank in the global markets.
The industry would like to take one large broom and sweep this story back under the rug. The weekend ‘execution’ of Barclays chairman Marcus Agius is an attempt to do just that.
This Libor intrigue is only the latest of the financial industry’s market manipulation schemes. What do people think was going on in the auction-rate securities markets? How about the daily trading within the equity markets?
Manipulating markets has gone on for ages. As a resident member of the Sense on Cents Hall of Fame shared with us a few years back, “markets don’t go up, they’re put up.”
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
When you place warriors close to other warriors anything can happen.
U.S. Adds Forces in Persian Gulf, a Signal to Iran By THOM SHANKER, ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER.
WASHINGTON — The United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates.
The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”
But at a moment that the United States and its allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo on Iran’s oil exports, meant to force the country to take seriously the negotiations over sharply limiting its nuclear program, the buildup carries significant risks, including that Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps could decide to lash out against the increased presence.
The most visible elements of this buildup are Navy ships designed to vastly enhance the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz — and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters from sending their tankers through the vital passage.
The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what military officers describe as a purely defensive move.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Sure fits QE to infinity, and might be part of the Fed versus Washington standoff.
Congress Said to Consider Delaying Automatic Budget Cuts By Roxana Tiron – Jun 26, 2012 5:47 PM ET
Republican and Democratic congressional leaders are weighing whether to delay automatic federal spending cuts until March 2013, according to a House aide and industry officials who were briefed on the discussions.
The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts over a decade, half of which would affect the Defense Department, are scheduled to begin in January 2013. At the same time, lawmakers must decide what to do about income tax cuts and other tax breaks scheduled to expire at the end of the year.
Leaders in both chambers are discussing whether to propose a catch-all bill that would delay the automatic cuts, fund the government through March or later and temporarily extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and other tax laws, said the House aide and industry officials, who asked to speak on condition of anonymity.
“It is being seriously considered as one of the options and there is no doubt about that,” Steve Bell, the senior director of the Economic Policy Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in an interview.
The measure would follow a short-term stopgap spending bill to keep the government operating after the start of the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, the people said.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
There is every possibility that when Libor went to the big sixes that
in fact there was no Libor as no bank would lend to god at that time on
this side of 20%. The Bank of England looked to others and the Libor
"fix" became a permanent habit.
It is all rigged and in my opinion the rig is up.
Hello Jim,
Singapore is abolishing the 7% tax on gold purchase from October this year. It seems the government here wants to encourage its citizens to hold gold as a part of their saving/national reserve as seen in China.
The monsoon season will start in October here in SE Asia and India. Let’s see if the rains will bring back rupees and farmers in our market.
Thank you,
CIGA Yoshiki
Dear Jim,
In a sick twist on the "man robs bank" theme, "bank robs man" fits the scenario better, or to be even more accurate "bankers rob taxpayers!"
Thus, "The Great Bank Robbery" has become instead "The Great Taxpayer Robbery."
As LIE-BORgate unfolds like Sir Walter Scott’s Marmion, or for something more contemporary, "MF Global," please consider this:
- The LIBOR rate was under manipulation in 2008.
- The interbank lending rate spike (and credit freeze) was partly the product of LIBOR manipulation.
- Since LIBOR affects credit availability the "bailouts" were ostensibly to offset the freezing of credit.
- By manipulating (rigging) LIBOR, banks were manipulating a variable directly connected to the bailouts.
- The banking system sucked $29 trillion out of the taxpayers post-2008.
Do you think the freeze was intended and designed to get bigger and faster bailouts?
Regards,
CIGA Richard S.
Mr. Sinclair,
With all the whining emails you get I wanted to say how much I appreciate your efforts. When I started moving out of paper into PMs back in 2006, I was less
than three years from a myocardial infarction and retirement at fifty-nine.
You were our only financial anchor and what a blessing you have been to us.
However by continually following your articles we have realized the following:
| % Net Profit Silver | 33.54% |
| % Net Profit Gold | 51.08% |
| % Total Net Profit in Dollars | 47.08% |
Keep up the wonderful work and be confident that my wife and I are forever grateful for your generosity and kindness.
CIGA Kerry
Housing Rebound or Relapse? CIGA Eric
Negative equity, restricted access to credit, and falling demand will continue to prevent a meaningful recovery for years to come despite recent influx of hope (Housing Rebound or Relapse?). Why? The recent up tick in new home sales must be framed within the context of ebb and flow of time. Once positive momentum reached the sell zone on February 2012 (chart), it increased the probability that a period of ebb has begun.
Chart: New Home Sales And Change YOY, SA
Headline: Housing recovery hindered by negative equity
Scott Andresen would love to sell his Seattle house. He just can’t afford to. The 41-year-old policeman and his wife, Rebecca, an environmental consultant, bought the house six years ago. Because of falling prices, they now owe at least $25,000 more on it than it’s worth. The couple would like to move to a better neighborhood with better schools for their children, ages 7 and 4. But they’d have to write a check to cover the difference. "We can’t get out, because it would be too expensive," Andresen says. "It’s very frustrating." Homeowners like the Andresens inhabit just about every housing market nationwide, and their reluctance to sell is having an unexpected impact on the U.S. housing market, which is showing signs of stabilizing after years of declining prices. Rather than a housing market defined by weak demand and falling prices, the market is now being hampered by a restricted supply of homes for sale as demand improves. That’s leading to multiple offers in dozens of markets, rising prices in some and a more volatile housing recovery than many expected.
Source: usatoday.com
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Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge CIGA Eric
A combination of monetary inflation and unusually hot and dry weather is beginning to reverse the downward momentum in the CRB foodstuffs and spot indices (chart 1 and 2). The public’s patience with monetary inflation will disappear quickly when rising input costs pushes consumer prices higher in the months ahead.
Chart 1: CRBFoodstuffs And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change
Chart 2: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change
Headline: Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge
The jump was driven by the current spell of hot, dry weather in the US Midwest, which is suffering record-breaking temperatures in some areas. Similar weather back in 1988, creating one of the most damaging droughts in US history, cut the country’s corn production by more than 30pc. Food price inflation is already a headache for policymakers around the globe, faced with the pressures of growing populations, rising urbanisation and changing diets. That means the latest surge in crop prices state-side, with the US producing more than 40pc of global corn exports, is causing some concern. The dry weather is also affecting the Black Sea producers, as well as those on the North China Plain. High levels of planting by farmers had stoked hopes for bumper US supplies this year, to replenish inventories that are near record lows and ease pressures on food prices. But when corn plants are stressed by drought conditions, the result is lower yields from the fields. "The corn crop is entering the key pollinating and yield-setting period and continued dry weather is a big concern for yields," said analysts at Barclays Capital. "The optimistic scenario of agricultural surpluses that 2012 was supposed to herald may not transpire."
Source: telegraph.co.uk
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