Sunday, July 15, 2012


Does QE Really Work? The Evidence To Date

The market's hopes and dreams for the next LSAP remain high. As gold inches higher, tail-risks priced out (expectations for extreme FX moves are considerably lower than sentiment would suggest), and US equity vol expectations (and put skews) are crushed; the equity market clearly remains 'at a premium' in its notional indices given what is sheer lunacy in earnings expectations going forward. The question every investor should be asking is not when QE or even if QE, but so-what-QE? As Credit Suisse notes, given the deterioration in US economic activity (and the extension of Operation Twist) the FOMC will probably wait until its September meeting (and remember the trigger for further pure QE is a long way off for now). The most critical question remains, will additional QE work? After all, few would argue that US interest rates are too high or that banks in the US need still more excess reserves. Two things stand out in their analysis of how QE is supposed to work (transmission mechanisms) and its results to date: QE1 was more effective than QE2, and it's easier to find QE's effect on Treasury yields than on real economic performance. Perhaps more concerning is that the potential negative effects of such unconventional monetary policy has received little attention (aside from at fringe blogs here and here).



Pick The Subordinated Bond Out

Something interesting happened on the way to the detail-free bailout of Spain's insolvent banking system (which may or may not see senior bond impairments depending on just how big of a capitalization hole the ECB, not some fringe blog, sees). We got details. To wit, from Dow Jones:
The European Union loan to Spain will have a 30-year maturity, an interest rate of 2.5% and a 10-year grace period, reports ABC in its Monday Internet edition, without citing any sources.
Now here's the thing: anyone who has ever looked at a balance sheet, and actually happens to be familiar with terms such as priority, seniority, guarantee, and subordination, will notice something rather peculiar. Namely that only idiots of the nth degree will claim that a 30 year 2.5% bond is pari passu, or equal in right of subordination - precisely what those unelected technocrats in Europe have been repeating day after day since various European summits - with a 10 year at 7%, which is where the Spanish debt actually clears the market. In other words, sorry - there is something here which gives the bailout debt implied seniority.  And here is the punchline: if the Spanish bailout debt does not trade like a pari passu piece of debt, it means that it is... i) not pari passu, and that it is ii) priming, no matter what any so-called pundit with a newsletter to peddle, may claim otherwise. Period. End of Story.




WAR AGAINST GOLD, WHY IT WILL SKYROCKET & MORE – Egon von Greyerz:

from KingWorldNews:
“The printing of money will lead to collapsing currencies, and investors buying gold at any price.
Of course the banks don’t have the physical gold to satisfy their commitments. Central banks, and most probably the Fed, don’t have the gold they say they have. The 8,000 tons the US government is supposed to hold is probably not there.
The IMF’s 3,000 tons is probably double-counted and not there either. And banks don’t even have the allocated gold they say they have. We have proof of that, and I know you talked to Stephen Leeb the other day and he said the same thing.
LISTEN NOW @ KingWorldNews.com


Former Democrat Whistle Blower: DNC Fraud, Financial Fraud & Gov’t Sponsored Murder – Was the 2008 Election of Obama a COUP?

This is my interview with professional photographer and truth activist Michele Thomas. Thomas explains how the Obama campaign, with the aid of the corrupt DNC leadership, stole the 2008 election and handed it to Obama. Michele explains that Jon Corzine played a key role in awarding Obama Delegates which he did not earn, and helped to shut out Hillary Clinton who was winning – which is why Corzine is untouchable now. In Part 2, Thomas explains how the 2008 Obama campaign was a COUP of the Democratic Party. She also talks about two other DNC whistle blowers were found dead just days after going public about the criminality they witnessed. Thomas says there is no doubt in her mind that Andrew Breitbart was murdered by these same forces. Michele says, ‘The right thing to do is to leave this corrupt system’, which she has done, turning her back on the bogus Right-Left paradigm. And now that Thomas is awake to the NWO, she is an avid and vocal Ron Paul supporter.
Click Here for Michele’s World Net Daily interview.

Former Democrat Whistle Blower: DNC Fraud, Financial Fraud & Gov't Sponsored Murder?

The 2008 Obama Campaign & Election Was a COUP [Part 2]

 

Beginning Sovereign Debt Crisis Endgame, Attack of the Zombie Banks and the New Religion of Europe

By John Mauldin, The Market Oracle:
About this time two years ago I began to seriously work with Jonathan Tepper on our book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changed Everything. It came out the following March. I remember vividly that in November of that year, as crisis after crisis hit Europe, and the first of about 20 summit meetings which were supposed to solve the crisis was convened, that Jonathan and I worried that the book would not be out in time to actually catch the Endgame before it happened (at least in Europe).
Ah, such naiveté from your humble analysts. While we predicted (in general) pretty much everything that has happened so far, from Greece to Spain to Italy, the problems with “austerity” in times of crisis, the even larger eventual problems of postponing the day of reckoning, etc., we now must stand back and shake our heads in awe and wonder at the ability of European leaders to kick the can down the road. Given the serious nature of the problems, it is amazing (to us at least) that they have been able to keep the wheels from coming off. In the face of the powerful centrifugal forces that should have torn Europe apart, we must pause and give serious thought to why they have not done so already.
(In the book, we also discussed at length the problems in Japan and the US and looked at several other problematical countries, but we were not worried that those events would preempt our publishing deadline. Those problems are still in our future, but coming at us ever faster as times gallops on.)
Read More @ TheMarketOracle.co.uk


Silver Update 7/15/12 CAFR Caper

from BrotherJohnf:



Emerging market central banks the biggest official buyers of gold but will buy much more

by Arabian Money:
Emerging market central banks have been the biggest official buyers of gold over the past year or so with total net central bank purchases the largest since 1964 last year at 445 tonnes. Central banks know that the only protection for their deposits against their own money printing is to buy gold.
But the emerging markets really get it. Russia added 15.5 tonnes in May raising its reserves to 911.3 tonnes, the highest since 1993; Thailand has almost doubled its reserves in two years; Mexico has bought over 100 tonnes since February 2011; and Turkey has stashed 123 tonnes since last October.
Rising gold purchases
Over the past 12 months net purchases of gold by the central banks have averaged 20 per cent of annual supply, according to the World Gold Council. Yet gold buying by central banks is most likely still not in top gear.
Read More @ ArabianMoney.com


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Terror, Robespierre, and the French Revolution

from Jesse’s Café Américain:
One of the more interesting things in history which I have considered for some time is that contrast between the American and the French Revolutions.
Certainly they were different, and in their time and circumstance are operating within very different historical contexts and political and social contingencies. And yet they were philosophically intertwined. The American founding fathers were inspired by much of the writing of the French thinkers in particular, and the French people were inspired by the achievement of the Americans in freeing themselves from the English monarchy.
The major difference between them in my mind, as concisely stated as possible, is that in the American Revolution the Declaration of Independence was followed by the creation of a Constitution, that by its nature and the existing political organization of the country guaranteed individual rights and the dispersion of centralized power amongst thirteen colonies with importantly distinct agendas. There was no Committee of Public Safety, there was no Robespierre.
Read More @ Jesse’s Café Américain:


Lauren Brinati & NFA’s Gross FOREX Negligence

by Ann Barnhardt, Barnhardt.biz:
Oh, the chickens are coming home to roost now. I have been willing to speak out against the NFA and their criminality because I am totally out of the business, and the NFA can’t threaten me in any way any longer. Not so before I shut my firm down, and for anyone else involved in the futures industry. The NFA is the gatekeeper to the entire industry. Anyone who wants to work in the futures or options industry MUST be licensed by the NFA, and the NFA can, at any time, pull a person’s license or otherwise harass NFA members into insolvency with ZERO recourse or redress – and they do. When I call them a mafia, I’m not being flip. In fact, a reader sent me an email detailing how the NFA can and should be tried under CIVIL RICO statutes. They are indeed a criminal, racketeering body.
It now seems that people have had enough, and are now willing to speak out against the NFA. Here is a letter sent to me last night by a FOREX trader (whom I have checked out – this person is definitely for real), outlining their experience with the NFA, and specifically Lauren Brinati, which confirms and echoes everything I have said.
This person is willing to speak to the press. Any reporters who want to pursue what you read here should email me contact info, which I will then forward to this FOREX professional.
Hi Ann,
After reading your post on the Lauren Brinati antics, I just feel compelled to tell you my personal experience with her, the NFA, and the CFTC. It is a long story, but I will try to keep it short unless you request the full feature-length saga, but trust me, I have all of the emails to verify every word of my story.
Original Source @ Barnhardt.biz


Sheriff’s Deputy threatened for speaking out against federal power grabs

by J. D. Heyes, Natural News:
It’s not supposed to be against the law to speak your mind and what’s more, Americans depend on the nation’s lawmakers and law enforcement officers to uphold the Constitution’s protections. But what about when a law enforcement agency is denying one of its own the right to speak his mind about, say, the intrusion of the federal government into state and local business?
In some parts of the country, exercising that right is apparently not allowed. Enter Trinity County, Calif., where the sheriff – Bruce Haney – has found himself embroiled in a civil rights lawsuit filed by one of his deputies, Mark Potts, for allegedly punishing Potts over comments he made about the federal Leviathan in a series of editorials in the local newspaper.
Potts, who filed his complaint in U.S. District Court in Sacramento, said in court papers he was seeking to “vindicate” his “free speech rights” under “federal and state constitutional and statutory law.”
Read More @ Natural News


Drone Fever: U.S. Drone Manufacturers Pour Millions into Congressional Campaigns

by Joe Wolverton II, Info Wars:

President Obama’s drone fever is contagious and is spreading worldwide, and the American industries that build the drones are slavering over the chance to supply the demand.
Christopher Ames, the director of international strategy development for Pentagon contractor General Atomics Aeronautical, was almost gleeful in his statement to Reuters regarding the opening of a potentially lucrative overseas market for his company’s remote control killing machines.
“There has been very considerable international interest,” he told Reuters. “There have been countries that for a long time have been asking for Predator… (the export variant) opens up those markets to us.”
Read More @ InfoWars.com


Homeland Security Seeking Assault and Sniper Rifles

from James Smith, The Daily Sheeple:
The Department of Homeland Security issued a bid for 36 Colt LE901 rifle systems, which will accept and function any military specification (Mil-Spec) .223 caliber upper receiver, and is thus backwards compatible with all CBP/U.S. Border Patrol M4 upper receivers.
Not surprisingly in this matter is the recent award by DHS, but no solicitation can be found for, .223 caliber Remington Enhanced Performance ammunition. The award states:
“This notice of an award of an Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract is being posted in accordance with Federal Acquisition Regulation 5.705 which requires award notices for actions exceeding $500,000. This contract will provide the Department of Homeland Security the necessary .223 Remington Caliber (62-64 grain) Enhanced Performance ammunition for its duration. The period of performance is a base year with 4 one year options commencing on 7/12/2012. “
Read More @ TheDailySheeple.com

Kerry Lutz on Money, Markets and the Growth of His Financial Survival Network

by Anthony Wile, The Daily Bell:

The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with Kerry Lutz (left).
Introduction: Kerry Lutz has been a student of  Austrian Economics since 1977. His diverse career  has included: running a legal printing company, practicing commercial law and litigation and founding a successful distressed asset investment company. In  2010, Kerry gave up most of his other interests to pursue his long held desire of becoming a radio show host. Thus the Financial Survival Network was born. Its mission is helping you to survive and thrive in the New Economy. He has done hundreds of interviews with such financial luminaries as Peter Schiff, Harry S. Dent, Martin Armstrong and Peter Grandich. Kerry now appears on 1490 WGCH, in Greenwich, CT, every Tuesday from 11am-12pm EST. His new Triple Lutz Report was an instant hit and continues to increase audience share.
Daily Bell: Thanks for sitting down with us. Tell us about the Financial Survival Network.
Kerry Lutz: I founded the Financial Survival Network to help inform people about what was really going on in the economy and the world. In 2010 I believed that the world had fallen into a perhaps decade long economic depression. We saw rapidly rising rates of unemployment, food stamp use, inflation picking up and a marked decrease in living standards. So I wanted to get the word out to as many people as possible to not believe the propaganda, green shoots, recovery summer and all that. And I’ve been working at it ever since and we’re in the process of picking up other voices who are espousing a similar message.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com


In The News Today


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It isn’t only majors that will be acquiring gold assets that are offered at the discounted rate of juniors.

Egyptian tycoon Sawiris bids $500m for Canadian gold firm signaling gold stock revaluation Posted on 15 July 2012
Egypt’s second richest man Naguib Sawiris has made a $500 million bid for the Canadian gold mining group Mancha Resources, the most spectacular move yet into the yellow metal by an Arabian businessman.
Mr Sawris confirmed to The National newspaper that talks are in progress but declined further comment, except to say La Mancha has a ‘geographically diverse portfolio of assets offering exposure to growth.’
Golden assets
La Mancha operates four gold mines in Africa and Australia. Mr Sawris and his even richer brother have amassed a multi-billion dollar fortune as the founders of Orascom Telecom and have major investments in cement, construction, fertilizers and hotels.
They have made a great deal of money by being early investors in sectors before their future value became apparent. But gold mines are a completely new field for Mr Sawris and mark a major diversification away from his past successes.
Naguib Sawiris is worth $3.1 billion and his brother Nassef $5.1 billion, according to Forbes magazine. They could well be readers of the ArabianMoney investment newsletter which has been advising such a diversification strategy for some time).
More…



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Those the gods wish to destroy they make mad first. The "Rig is Out" in public domain and that is the basis of the "Rig is Up."

Many Wall Street executives says wrongdoing is necessary: survey Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:07am EDT
(Reuters) – If the ancient Greek philosopher Diogenes were to go out with his lantern in search of an honest man today, a survey of Wall Street executives on workplace conduct suggests he might have to look elsewhere.
A quarter of Wall Street executives see wrongdoing as a key to success, according to a survey by whistleblower law firm Labaton Sucharow released on Tuesday.
In a survey of 500 senior executives in the United States and the UK, 26 percent of respondents said they had observed or had firsthand knowledge of wrongdoing in the workplace, while 24 percent said they believed financial services professionals may need to engage in unethical or illegal conduct to be successful.
Sixteen percent of respondents said they would commit insider trading if they could get away with it, according to Labaton Sucharow. And 30 percent said their compensation plans created pressure to compromise ethical standards or violate the law.
"When misconduct is common and accepted by financial services professionals, the integrity of our entire financial system is at risk," Jordan Thomas, partner and chair of Labaton Sucharow’s whistleblower representation practice, said in a statement.
More…

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Jim,

I predict the price of gold is about to cease being a fairy tale number.
CIGA Anastasia

Like a lamb London surrenders London Metal Exchange
Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing has paid £1.4bn for the London Metal Exchange, a company which makes £11.2m operating profit – a multiple of more than 124 times.
By Damian Reece, Head of Business
7:37PM BST 15 Jun 2012

Even Facebook only managed a multiple of 76 times when it floated and look what’s happened to that.
Clearly HKEx is desperate to buy LME, which is very good at what it does, and has basically agreed to pay any price necessary. Why?
On a mundane level, of no concern to you or me, it can now ramp up the fees it charges investment banks and the like to become members of the exchange and trade the world’s industrial metals. LME’s members are also its shareholders so will see HKEx recoup some value that way.
But HKEx will be able to use its influence with Beijing to funnel far more of China’s metals buying activity through its LME subsidiary, creating value that way too.
More…



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