Santelli Rants: "Ditch The Duct Tape; The Problem Is Insolvency"
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Europe Smashes All Market Records On Its Way To Total Insolvency
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Troika Says Greece Needs Another Debt Restructuring Round
It has been a while since Greece made the front pages. That changes now:- GREECE SEEN MISSING EU/IMF DEBT REDUCTION TARGETS, FURTHER DEBT RESTRUCTURING NECESSARY - EU OFFICIALS
Why The Richmond Fed Better Not Be A Harbinger Of Non-Farm Payrolls To Come
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The chart below, which compares the change in the Richmond Fed and the Non-Farm Payrolls print, is self-explanatory. Of course, if we are indeed about to get a -400,000 NFP print, then the prayers of all those newsletter sellers whose only "thesis" is more easing, are about to be answered.
Before You "Buy the Dip," Look at These Two Charts
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The first is a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The recent price history has traced out a pattern that looks remarkably similar to the one that presaged the crash of 2008, with one difference: massive quantitative easing and Eurozone bailouts pushed the B leg into an overextension. If this pattern is valid, the C leg down could be a real doozy.
The Spain Curve Inversion In All Its Gravitational Glor
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While every wannabe bond-trader and macro-strategist can quote 10Y Spanish yields, and maybe even knows what the front-end of the Spanish yield curve is doing (and why), there are three very significant events occurring in the Spanish sovereign credit market. First is the inversion of the 5s10s curve (5Y yields were above 10Y yields at the open today); second is the velocity with which 2s10s and 5s10s have plunged suggesting a total collapse in confidence of short-term sustainability; and perhaps most critically, third is the record wide spread between the bond's spread and the CDS (the so-called 'basis') which suggests market participants have regime-shifted Spain into imminent PSI territory (a la Greece and Portugal) as opposed to 'still rescuable' a la Italy for now. As we pointed out earlier, there is little that can be done (or is willing to be done) in the short-term, and the inevitability of a full-scale TROIKA program request is increasingly priced into credit markets (though its implicatios are not in equities of course).
Richmond Fed Faceplants At -17, Expectations Of Rise To -1; Worst Since April 2009
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And another epic miss in the slow motion trainwreck that is the US plowhorse economy now to its neck in quicksand. The latest B-grade economic indicator: the Richmond Fed, which was expected to rise modestly from -3 to -1. Instead it faceplanted to -17, the biggest miss since August 2010 and the lowest print since Apirl 2009. But at least US housing has bottomed. Just kidding. At this point there should be no doubt that the US economy is in freefall - and the only recourse we have is the definition of madness: more QE which everyone by now knows will do nothing but provide a brief sugar high, and spike inflation and stock prices, only for everything to implode demanding even more QEasing from the Chairsatan, and on, and on, until in the endgame, the USD finally loses credibility. Of course, if this horrifyingly bad economic print does not send stocks soaring, we don't know what will.
Charting America's Ever Shrinking "Revisionist" Economy
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Dominoes Tumbling: Catalonia Informally Requests Bailout As Spain Considering Credit Line Request
Things in Spain are now in freefall, and as a Spanish economist admits to El Economista "we are alone" which is not surprising: the country has cried not wolf then wolf one too many times, and following yesterday's warning by Moody's that Germany is now officially on the hook should it continue bailing out the insolvent periphery, it is no wonder that Germany will leave Spain to the same wolves it may or may not have been observing for months. Sadly, much more pain is in store for the rhyming country, but first of all for its north-eastern region of Catalonia which is responsible for a fifth of the country's economy output, and which has €13 billion in debt redemptions until the end of 2012. From El Nacional: "The Government of Artur Mas call on the help of regional liquidity fund that created the central government with 18,000 million euros, as confirmed by the spokesman Francesc Homs. After Valencia and Murcia, who have already made ??their intentions, Catalonia would be the third autonomy to resort to the rescue of the state. For its part, Andalusia may try to avoid government aid and negotiate a private loan of 800 million euros. Homs has emphasized that the decision to seek the liquidity mechanism has not yet been taken formally and according to him it is not in any case not a rescue or intervention, and that the Government of Artur Mas is studying the fine print of the conditions the fund." At least FC Barcelona has some good collateral to post to the the various German entities that will ultimately be funding the rescue. The same can not be said for Spain, however, which the same publication says, is on the verge of begging, and may demand a credit line so it can finance its funding neeeds for the remainder of the year.Six Reasons Why Spain Will Be Forced To Request A Sovereign Bailout
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The Bias Towards Optimism Often Hides The Truth
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 39 minutes ago
Long-term negative divergences in markets (capital flows) suggest dangerous
markets. For example, when transports lag, or fail to lead the industrials
to higher highs, it suggests a deteriorating economic growth. The
following charts illustrate several of the major negative divergences since
1970: 1972-1973 divergence led 1972-1974 bear market 1985-1987...
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content, and more! ]]
Gold Correction: It’s Just The Way Markets Work
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
Corrections are normal and are the way things should work, the way things
do work. Having said that, I don’t know when the correction will stop. It’s
normal in my experience for corrections to go down 30 or 40 percent. It’s
just the way markets work. - *in ETF Daily News*
Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)
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*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
China`s Growth
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago
It is only the dreamer who thinks China will grow and grow with no
recession. - *in a recent video interview*
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China
25 Index (ETF) (FXI)
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*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
I Don’t Know Of Any Asset In History That’s Gone Up 11 Years In A Row Without A Correction
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 2 hours ago
I’ve actually owned gold for longer than 11 years. I’m not buying now. Gold
went up 11 years in a row, which is extremely unusual for any asset. I
don’t know of any asset in history that’s gone up 11 years in a row without
a correction. - *in ETF Daily News*
Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
Italy bans stock short-selling as market plunges
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
Short-selling ban buys time for Italy, but the wolf pack (capital flows)
will not be dissuaded by temporary restrictions. The weak are getting
weaker by the minute. The means a global coordinated liquidity injection,
the only tool available to kick the can down the road a little further, is
inevitable. Headline: Italy bans stock short-selling as market plunges
MILAN (AP) -- Italy's...
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content, and more! ]]
About Those Excess Reserves At the Fed
No Housing Recovery In These Three Charts
Lumber giant Universal Forest Products’ CEO Matt Missad said in the company’s latest earnings conference call, “We
are watching our inventories closely and trying not to get too far
ahead because we are concerned about disappointing employment figures
and lack of construction growth in the U.S.” Rather than
observe the trends in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s headline
Mortgage Applications Index, which includes refinancing, a far better
gauge of economic conditions is the Mortgage Purchases Index trends.
This weekly representation of demand for mortgages related to home
buying is little changed from levels registered at the bottom of the
housing market collapse. The level of residential housing
construction is an important indicator, and has made little improvement
since the apparent market bottom in 2009. The sunken pace of
residential construction spending in May was $268 billion – essentially
the same levels seen in 1997. This profoundly low level of activity
is not limited to the residential sector; spending on commercial
structures is currently the same as in 1996. Since there is diminished activity, the need for workers in the construction industry has also stagnated.
During June construction employment totaled 5.5 million workers – a
near 30 percent decline from the peak in April 2006 and the same number
as in mid 1996.
The Issue Of 'Moments'
It was inevitable and despite all of the usual huffing and puffing on
the Continent; the moves are correct. First Egan-Jones and then Moodys
and Germany is downgraded or threatened with a downgrade and for sound
reasons. The German economy is $3.2 trillion and they are
trying to support the Eurozone with an economy of $15.3 trillion that
is in recession and rapidly falling off the cliff. Each new
European enterprise gives the markets a shorter and shorter bounce as
we all watch the yields in Europe rise, the stock market’s fall and the
Euro in serious decline against both the Dollar and the Yen. There has
been no Lehman Moment to date but moment-by-moment the decline in the
fortunes of Europe diminishes. There is almost no historical precedent where debt paid by the addition of more and more debt has been a successful operation. There is always the inevitable wall or walls and the concrete slabs of Greece and Spain fast approach.
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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 24
The major European bourses are down as US participants come to their desks, volumes still thin but higher than yesterday’s, and underperformance once again observed in the peripheries, with the IBEX down 2.5% and the FTSE MIB down 1.2%. Last night’s outlook changes on German sovereign debt caused a sell-off in the bund futures, with the effect being compounded as Germany comes to market with a 30-year offering tomorrow. The rating agency moves, as well as softer Euro-zone PMIs and reports that Spain is considering requesting a full international bailout have weighed on the riskier asset classes, taking EUR/USD back below the 1.2100 level. Furthermore, with Greece and a potential Greek exit now back in the news, investor caution is rife as the Troika begin their Greek report of the troubled country today.Global Trade And Logistics Bellwether UPS Misses Top and Bottom Line, Cuts Forecast
UPS, traditionally considered one of the legacy bellwether, came out with earnings. And they were ugly. The company missed both the top and bottom line, with the revenue coming at $13.35 billion, below expectations of $13.7 billion, and EPS at $1.15 on expectations of $1.17. This merely confirms what those who did not have their head in the sand in Q2 knew all along: without Europe, global trade stalls every time. But it was the outlook cut that was the cherry on top: "The company’s performance was mixed during the second quarter,” said Kurt Kuehn, UPS’s chief financial officer. "The results in the U.S. Domestic and Supply Chain and Freight segments were partially offset by the weakness in International. “As we look toward the second half of the year, customers are more concerned as greater uncertainty exists. Additionally, economic growth expectations have come down,” Kuehn continued." China bull take note: "Revenue was $3 billion as the segment remains under pressure due to weaker global economies and reductions in exports from Asia." Going back to Kuehn: "Consequently, we are reducing our guidance for 2012 diluted earnings per share to a range of $4.50 to $4.70, an increase of 3%-to-8% over 2011 adjusted results.” The firm's previous guidance was $4.75-$5.00, with sellside consensus of $4.82. Somehow we fail to see how the Q3 and Q4 renaissance, which is so critical to meet the S&P target of over 100 in earnings, will happen. Actually scratch that: it won't. Expect reality to slam stocks head on some time in Q3 as the realization that the air out of the US corporate juggernaut has come out, courtesy of a sliding EUR and surging USD. Or at least until the Chairman has something to say about it.Global Trade And Logistics Bellwether UPS Misses Top and Bottom Line, Cuts Forecast
UPS, traditionally considered one of the legacy bellwether, came out with earnings. And they were ugly. The company missed both the top and bottom line, with the revenue coming at $13.35 billion, below expectations of $13.7 billion, and EPS at $1.15 on expectations of $1.17. This merely confirms what those who did not have their head in the sand in Q2 knew all along: without Europe, global trade stalls every time. But it was the outlook cut that was the cherry on top: "The company’s performance was mixed during the second quarter,” said Kurt Kuehn, UPS’s chief financial officer. "The results in the U.S. Domestic and Supply Chain and Freight segments were partially offset by the weakness in International. “As we look toward the second half of the year, customers are more concerned as greater uncertainty exists. Additionally, economic growth expectations have come down,” Kuehn continued." China bull take note: "Revenue was $3 billion as the segment remains under pressure due to weaker global economies and reductions in exports from Asia." Going back to Kuehn: "Consequently, we are reducing our guidance for 2012 diluted earnings per share to a range of $4.50 to $4.70, an increase of 3%-to-8% over 2011 adjusted results.” The firm's previous guidance was $4.75-$5.00, with sellside consensus of $4.82. Somehow we fail to see how the Q3 and Q4 renaissance, which is so critical to meet the S&P target of over 100 in earnings, will happen. Actually scratch that: it won't. Expect reality to slam stocks head on some time in Q3 as the realization that the air out of the US corporate juggernaut has come out, courtesy of a sliding EUR and surging USD. Or at least until the Chairman has something to say about it.Frontrunning: July 24
- Greece now in "Great Depression", PM says (Reuters)
- Geithner "Washington must act to avoid damaging economy" (Reuters)
- Moody’s warns eurozone core (FT)
- Germany Pushes Back After Moody’s Lowers Rating Outlook (Bloomberg)
- Austria's Fekter says Greek euro exit not discussed (Reuters)
- In Greek crisis, lessons in a shrimp farm's travails (Reuters)
- Fed's Raskin: No government backstop for banks that do prop trading (Reuters)
- Campbell Chases Millennials With Lentils Madras Curry (Bloomberg)
Goldman Murders Muppets, Tells Them To Stay Long Spanish, Italian Bonds
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Spain Not Uganda - Increasingly Looking Like Vigilante Hell With 2 Year At 6.66%, 10 Year At 7.6%
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"Mr Libor" Leaves The British Bankers' Association, Goes To Reuters
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China's Schrodinger Economy Continues To Contract And Expand At Same Time
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65 Year Old Video Says Gold Is 'Good Money'
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Today’s Items:
First…
The Latest Domino to Fall is Spain
http://www.cnbc.com 1
http://www.cnbc.com 2
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
The Latest Domino to Fall is Spain
http://www.cnbc.com 1
http://www.cnbc.com 2
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
Spain’s stock market regulator banned
short-selling on all Spanish securities for three months and said it may
extend the ban. Spain’s economic growth contracted by 1 percent
year-on-year in the second quarter. Spanish 10-year borrowing costs rose
sharply to trade around 7.5 percent. Spanish stocks fell sharply amid
fears that a number of regional governments will ask Madrid for
financial support. Yes, evidence mounts on the sovereign debt crisis
spreading as both the markets and euro slide.
From the public’s perception,
international law enforcement agencies are close to arresting those
attempting to manipulate inter-bank interest rates. Of course, this is
far from the truth folks. LIBOR cannot be manipulated from lowly traders
or a single bank; thus, this is simply a fraudulent illusion for the
masses to keep this fiscal ponzi scheme going. It will be interesting to
see who they decide should take the fall for this or if there be a
bogus group settlement. This is because, it is very unlikely anyone will
see Geithner, Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and others, in handcuffs anytime
soon.
Well, the latest slowdown in the U.S.
economy appears to be forcing the Fed to consider… Drum roll please….
QE3. The Fed may be hesitant about the measure; however, being painted
into the fiscal corner really leaves little else.
Next…
CFTC’s Chilton Sees Silver Probe Concluding This Year
http://www.bloomberg.com
http://www.silverseek.com
CFTC’s Chilton Sees Silver Probe Concluding This Year
http://www.bloomberg.com
http://www.silverseek.com
Bart Chilton, of the CFTC, said he is
hopeful that the 4 year silver investigation will be concluded in
September or October of this year. In a May 2008 report, the CFTC
concluded that there was no evidence of manipulation in the market
between 2005 and 2007. Does anyone honestly believe anything will be
different from this so-called organization? Since the CFTC never aided
silver producers and investors in the past, there is no great loss in
the agency continuing not to do its job as silver manipulators, like JP
Morgan, are losing and the silver in the COMEX disappears.
Using plastic bullets, Anaheim police
opened fired randomly into a crowd of women and children. In addition,
to add to their sadistic behavior, they unleashed an attack dog on a
mother holding her baby. And get this, several officers tried to buy the
video off some of the people who recorded the escapade with their cell
phones. Most likely; so they could enjoy the video later in private. The
police chief placed two police officers on paid leave, after they shot,
and killed, and unarmed suspect running away from them.
Next…
Marine Corps Creates Law Enforcement Battalions
http://abcnews.go.com
http://www.youtube.com
http://cnsnews.com
Marine Corps Creates Law Enforcement Battalions
http://abcnews.go.com
http://www.youtube.com
http://cnsnews.com
The next time you get pulled over for a
speeding violation, it may be a U.S. Marine giving you that ticket with
an M16 aimed at you and a armed drone flying overhead. The Marine
Corps has created its first law enforcement battalions of 500 military
police officers and dozens of dogs that supposedly are to quickly be
deployed worldwide to help investigate crimes from terrorism to drug
trafficking; however, is it a real stretch, with a more military
presence on U.S. streets, that they would be used domestically?
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We The Sheeplez... is intended to reflect
excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal
and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure
online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your
contribution.
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