Thursday, May 26, 2016

"The System Itself Is At Risk" Bill Gross Warns, Shorts Credit As "Day Of Reckoning Is Coming"



Bill Gross, who manages the $1.3 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said he is moving to sell credit risk and insurance on market volatility rather than buying long-term debt, because he believes a day of reckoning will come when central banks will no longer be able to prop up asset prices and investors will withdraw from markets.


Donald Trump Unveils Energy Plan - Live Feed

Donald Trump will head to the heart of America’s oil and gas boom on Thursday to unveil details of his policies on energy and the environment. As NYTimes reports, speaking at an oil industry conference in Bismarck, N.D., Mr. Trump is expected to embrace standard Republican calls for more fossil fuel drilling and fewer environmental regulations, while possibly elaborating on his positions on climate change. Having vowed to "get those miners back to work," and "get rid of [EPA] in almost every form," this is the first time since becoming the presumptive nominee that Presidential candidate Trump has a platform for a policy speech... we are sure Clintonites will be listening intently.
  



It's Official: Trump Has Enough Delegates To Win The Republican Nomination





This Is How Much Your Health Insurance Payment Is About To Jump By

For all those currently enrolled in healthcare plans administered in the following states, this is how much, on average, your plans will go up by.



Furious China Slams "Irrational" US Trade War, Warns "Will Take Steps"

Overnight the Commerce Department escalated its trade war with China when it implemented the latest clampdown on a glut of steel imports, when it announced that corrosion-resistant steel from China will face final U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties of up to 450%. China's Commerce Ministry said it was extremely dissatisfied at what it called the "irrational" move by the United States, which it said would harm cooperation between the two countries. "China will take all necessary steps to strive for fair treatment and to protect the companies' rights," it said, without elaborating.



Someone Is Going To Be Disappointed

Bonds up, Stocks up... will Yellen spoil the party tomorrow?



"Buying Here Is Like Picking Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller" - 10 Reasons To Be Bearish From Credit Suisse

Little margin for error.  Multiples are elevated and the economic/earnings cycle is aging – this means the margin for error is small and shrinking and thus chasing the SPX at 2100+ is akin to “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”.



Strong 7 Year Auction, Near-Record Indirect Bidders Concludes Weekly Issuance

While not nearly as impressive as this week's preceding 2- and 5-Year auctions, both of which saw whopping central bank demand and record low Dealer awards, today's 7 Year belly of the curve auction showed continued strong demand for US paper in what is rapidly becoming the most "liquid" market, that of primary issuance.



Strong 7 Year Auction, Near-Record Indirect Bidders Concludes Weekly Issuance

While not nearly as impressive as this week's preceding 2- and 5-Year auctions, both of which saw whopping central bank demand and record low Dealer awards, today's 7 Year belly of the curve auction showed continued strong demand for US paper in what is rapidly becoming the most "liquid" market, that of primary issuance.



Bernie Agrees To Debate Trump After Hillary Shun

Having been debate-shunned by Hillary "ain't got time for that" Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders agreed Wednesday night to debate presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. Sanders, who was "disturbed but not surprised" that Hillary backed out of the California debate (ironic as Sanders is surging in polls ahead of the June 7th primary) enthusiastically tweeted "Game On" in response to Trump's agreement on Jimmy Kimmel Live to debate the Democrat contender, noting "it would have such high ratings." Imagine the protests outside of that event.



Losing Ground In Flyover America

The Fed’s paint-by-the-numbers Keynesian incrementalism leaves it blind to the underlying rot in the US economy and to drastically over-estimate its capacity to maintain a stable growth equilibrium. In fact, corporate America is being strip-mined by Fed-fueled financial engineering and flyover America is sinking irretrievably into debt, dependency and shrinking living standards.



"We Will Fight This All The Way To The Supreme Court" - 11 States Sue Obama Over Transgender Bathrooms

Officials from 11 U.S. states sued the Obama administration on Wednesday to overturn a directive telling schools to let transgender students use bathrooms matching their gender identity, decrying the policy as "a massive social experiment." Joining Texas in the lawsuit was Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin, plus Arizona's Department of Education and Maine's governor. "We are willing to fight this all the way to the Supreme Court if we have to," Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton told reporters in Austin. 



Options Traders Continue Their Unusual Hedging

While the stock market saw big gains the last two days, one options exchange reported a near-record level of relative put buying.



Cheryl Mills Trying To Block Release Of "Unfair & Misleading" Clinton Deposition Video

Hillary Clinton's closest aide Cherly Mills is comfortable with the release of the transcript of her deposition in the Hillary Email debacle, but has demanded that no audio or video be released because it "may be publicized in a way that exploits Ms. Mills’ image and voice in an unfair and misleading manner.” Or said otherwise, Mills doesn't want her body language or shakiness in her voice - as she answers questions about the way Clinton managed communications - to be shown to the public.



US Government Quietly Cuts Historical Capex Data By Billions Of Dollars

The Department of Commerce decided to quietly revise all the core data going back all the way back to 2014.



"The Freeze Is Finished" - Why Did Saudi Arabia Kill OPEC?

The OPEC meeting is only a week away, but the chances of a positive result are as remote as ever. Rising oil prices, the heightened rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Saudi Arabia’s willingness to go it alone will make a deal all but impossible. "I don't think OPEC will decide anything," a source from a major oil producer in the Middle East told Reuters. "The market is recovering because of supply disruptions and demand recovery." An OPEC delegate told Reuters that any changes to the cartel’s policy is off the table. “Nothing. The freeze is finished,” the OPEC source said.



Pending Home Sales Soar Most Since 2010, Beats By 6 Standard Deviations

On the heels of the 17-sigma beat in new home sales, pending home sales soared 5.1% MoM in April - 6.5 standard deviations above economist estimates of a 0.7% jump. Pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April and reached their highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions saw gains in contract activity last month (with The West surging 11.5% MoM) except for the Midwest, which saw a meager decline.



Saudi Officials Crackdown On FX Market As Currency Peg Starts To Strain

As we warned previously, the devaluation, or breaking of the Saudi Riyal peg to the dollar, could be the black swan event for crude oil and the recent weakness in SAR forwards - while not as violent as Nigeria's Naira - certainly signals a renewed market fear that breaking the peg is imminent. It appears Saudi officials are none too pleased with the free markets speculating on this devaluation and as Bloomberg reports, banks in Saudi Arabia are coming under fresh pressure over products that allow speculators to bet against the kingdom’s currency peg, according to people with knowledge of the matter, which were supposedly banned in January.



The Anger Of The Unprivileged Is Rising Globally

Interestingly, privilege serves the same purpose--benefiting the few at the expense of the many--regardless of the system's ideological labels. Socialist, Communist and free-market elites loot their populaces and national wealth with equal gusto. Those who came to do good and stayed to do well first accumulate privileges, which they then leverage into wealth and power.



Sudden Dollar Dump Sparks Bond, Bullion Bid








Core Durable Goods Orders Slump As Inventories Decline For 4th Straight Month

Core Durable Goods Orders tumbled 0.8% MoM and 6.7% YoY - down 15 of the last 18 months. However, following drastic revisions across the entire time series and thanks to a surge in military spending (+3.7%) and non-defense aircraft (+64.9% - bringing back memories of Boeing's aberration from a year or two back) the headline Durable Goods print rose 3.4% MoM. More worrying for GDP enthusiasts is the 0.2% decline in durable goods inventories in April for the 4th straight month.



Gartman Slammed By Gold: "We Have Had A Terrible Run This Past Week"

"For our positions here at TGL… and we have had a terrible run this past week given that our largest position is and has been and shall continue to be gold and further given that we came into the week short of equities on balance and had to turn our trading ship around amidst this massive, violent rally that did indeed catch us off guard… we are up a scant 1.0% for the year-to-date"



WTI Crude Tops $50 For First Time Since October Amid Supply Disruptions

WTI and Brent Crude oil prices have both broken above $50 for the first time since October 2015 this morning - almost doubling off its Feb 11th 26.05 lows. The immediate catalyst appears to be a combination of inventory drawdowns in US crude, continud US production cuts, and further supply disruptions (Nigeria specifically), none of which scream demand or growth is going to make a dent in the glut.



Chevron Facility Goes Offline In Nigeria Following Tweeted Attack By Mysterious Militant Group





This Is What Would Make Jeff Gundlach Bullish

Is there anything that would make a gloomy Jeff Gundlach bullish? As it turns out the answer is yes, but it is a big bogey. “The market has been going sideways for 18 months, and when it breaks, either up or down, it should be a large move. So let the market prove itself. If it breaks to the upside, which I define as accelerating above 2,200, it is a good, low-risk, ‘go with’ buy." Aka, chase the momentum in either direction.



Futures Levitation Continues As Brent Rises Above $50 For First Time Since November

In what has been another quiet overnight session, which unlike the past two days has not seen steep, illiquid gaps higher in US equity futures (the E-mini was up 3 points and accelerating to the upside as of this writing so there is still ample time for the momentum algos to go berserk), the main event was the price of Brent rising above $50 for the first time since November with WTI rising as high as $49.97.



Former McDonalds CEO Crushes The Minimum Wage Lie: "It's Cheaper To Buy A Robot Than Hire At $15/Hour"

"I was at the National Restaurant Show yesterday and if you look at the robotic devices that are coming into the restaurant industry - it’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 an hour bagging French fries - it’s nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe."



Least Transparent Ever - The Truth About Obama's Liberal Potemkin Village

After early promises to be the most transparent administration in history, this has been one of the most secretive. And in certain ways, one of the most elusive. On media rights generally, the Obama administration hasn’t walked its talk. It has set new records for stonewalling or rejecting Freedom of Information requests. And it has used an obscure federal act to prosecute leakers.




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