Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 08:36
And so the "most important payrolls number" at least until the October FOMC meeting when the Fed will once again do nothing because suddenly the US is staring recession in the face, is in the history books, and as previewed earlier today, at 142K it was a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate. Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September.
For the second time in a month, Congress has implemented ‘Martial Law’ as a way of fast tracking unconstitutional spending bills in order to keep the bankrupt US government from collapsing. The use of martial law fast-tracks spending bills by BYPASSING typical procedures – it’s a stop gap measure of overt tyranny from the government of a nation which at this point is best defined as a ‘Banana Republic’.
"They're Hopping Mad In The US And Saudi Arabia": Russian Strikes In Syria Spark Epic Western Media Propaganda BlitzSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 08:33 "They’re hopping mad in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. And Qatar because of their defeat and the victory of Russia and Syria and the unraveling of the fact that the U.S. and its allies are not serious about fighting Islamic State. Those who claim to be concerned about the Syrian people are the ones slaughtering the Syrian people through the terrorists."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 11:36
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 11:17 Precious metals are angrily bid this morning (even as copper and crude tumble) after the dismal US jobs data sent the USD reeling and raised expectations for moar QE down the line. Silver is up 5% on the day - the biggest daily jump since Dec 1st 2014 and gold is up 2.2% - its best day since April.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 11:14 Guess who: “CLAIMS” AND NONFARM PAYROLLS: It’s A Very “Tidy” Correlation Indeed: This wonderful chart, courtesy of TD Securities, shows how almost perfectly jobless claims and non?farm payrolls correlate, and so with “claims” falling as they have, payrolls today could be surprisingly high."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 10:53 In addition to the Fed's credibility, one other privately-controlled organization that has seen its credibility completely crushed in recent months is the Goldman economic forecasting team (if not the team that "forecasts" Fed monetary policy, simply because Goldman controls the Fed and tells it what to do; as such what Goldman "thinks" the Fed will do is usually ironclad) whose Jan Hatzius "for what it's worth" forecast above trend growth for the US economy in 2014. So, "for what it's worth", here is Goldman jobs report post-mortem (in a parallel report Goldman just cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.9%), in which the bank admits that the report was a disaster, and that as a result "we now see action at the December meeting as a close call."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 10:33 In business, the 80/20 rule states that 80% of your business will come from 20% of your customers. In an economy that is more than 2/3rds driven by consumption, such an imbalance of the "have" and "have not's" impedes real economic growth.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 10:22 Bloodbath for a near record short net Treasury speculative position as rate-hike odds collapse and the entire UST curve plunges. The belly is collapsing 13-15bps (biggest drop in 5Y and 7Y yields since January) and the long-end is dropping significantly. Between the 10Y highs of 2.0597% and lows of 1.9022%, the drop was 15.75bp - that is the biggest intraday drop since Sep 18, 2013, the day the Fed did not Taper. All yields are now lower on the year with 5Y near 2015 lows (down 42bps since end-Dec).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 10:12 If you thought the headline jobs print was bad, wait till you see this.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 10:04 For the 10th month in a row, US Factory Orders dropped year-over-year - the longest streak outside of a recession in history. Against expectations of a 1.2% decline MoM, August dropped 1.7% which is the worst MoM drop since Dec 2014, with a 24% drop MoM in defense new orders and capital goods. Most worrying however is the rise in the inventories-to-shipments ratio once again to cycle highs after a hopeful dip lower in July.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 09:51 US financials' stocks are tumbling as 'investor' hopes for a rate-hike (and some dream about better earning potential for banks) drag XLF (Financials ETF) back to Oct 2014 lows. However, as have noted before, it is the message of the credit markets that has been correct all along (and stocks continue to catch down) as today's jobs data (and Glencore asset sales) poke Financials credit spreads to their highest since Oct 2013.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 09:41 Central bank intervention/financial repression provides the illusion thay systemic risk has been disappeared, and this pushes all asset classes into correlation. The idea that some assets will escape the implosion is also illusory; what appeared uncorrelated can suddenly correlate overnight, destroying the entire fantasy that risk can be offloaded onto others.
Participation Rate Crashes To October 1977 Level: Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 579,000 To Record 94.6 MillionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 09:02 While the September jobs number was an absolute disaster, here is the real punchline: in September, the people not in the labor force soared by a whopping 579,000 to a record 94.6 million, up from the previous record 94.0, even as number of people employed - according to the household survey used to calculate the "5.1%" unemployment rate - tumbled by 236,000 to 148.8 million. 62.6% to 62.4%, it was the lowest since October 1977.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 08:47
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 - 08:40 "Inconceivable." With the total destruction of the "faith" in The Fed's pr0mised "recovery," stocks and bond yields are collapsing. A glance at the crash in fed reigional surveys should have given the market a hint (and credit did) but US equity markets are in free-fall and gold and silver are surging. Treasuries rallied hard on the bursting of the faith bubble with 10Y yields plunged back under 2.00% and 30Y yields broke below the 200-day moving average.
When it comes to survival medicine, I make no claim of being an expert. I am, after all, a mere layman with no medical training. On the other hand, I do possess a good deal of common sense so when something seems a bit off, I do my own research and make decisions based upon data and not upon supposition.
Something that has always been “off” to me are expiration dates on pharmaceuticals. Why is it that drugs always expire exactly one year after the date they were filled? The truth, as I wrote about in The Myth of Expiration Dates on Drugs and Prescription Meds, is that those expiration dates are often bogus.
In that article, I referenced the following statement from the the Harvard Medical School Family Health Guide:
When Putin carries out airstrikes in Syria, he sees ISIS.
When the U.S. disputes the same targets, it sees Syrian rebel groups and the Free Syrian Army.
The mercenaries, armed with American weapons and Pentagon-source payrolls, aren’t terrorists, they are “relatively moderate rebel factions like al-Qaeda.”
Such is the delusion that goes on and on under the spell of the War on Terror. But the re-branding of ISIS to create a new enemy in the wake of bin Laden’s death has been too much for much of anyone to take.
For months now, President Obama has been trying to sell the world on his plan that would give nuclear weapons to Iran, potentially allowing the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world to join the nuclear club. But at the same time he is undertaking that policy, he seems to be making it harder for the U.S. to maintain its own nuclear arsenal–this time by closing the last U.S.-owned uranium plant.
As Newsmax reports, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced it is ending the American Centrifuge project in Piketon, Ohio, on Sept. 30. The facility’s 235 workers have already been told that their jobs are coming to an end.
From the perspective of mainstream economists and investors, gold enthusiasts must sound like a bunch of lunatics. They are certainly the black sheep of the global financial community. When the price of gold soars, they view it as a confirmation that the system is breaking down, while mainstream investors see it as a temporary market aberration.
And when prices fall, the gold bugs are quick to call it a conspiracy and cry out “price manipulation!” at the top of their lungs. Meanwhile, ordinary investors are shaking their heads, thinking that these delusional gold buyers are simply looking for someone else to blame for their poor investment choices.
As a former Justice Department official, I have, of late, been asked by both Democratic and Republican friends whether Hillary Clinton could be indicted for her email related actions. The simple answer is yes — she, and perhaps some of her senior staff, could be indicted for violating a number of federal criminal statutes. But for reasons that will be discussed later, it is unlikely that she will be.
Nevertheless, it is well worth discussing the various criminal provisions of federal law that she and others may have been violated based on mainstream news reports. Remember that news reporting can be incorrect or incomplete — and that Hillary Clinton, and anyone else involved, deserves every presumption of innocence. Also keep in mind that an indictment is not a conviction but rather the informed opinion of a grand jury that probable cause exists to believe one or more violations of federal criminal statutes have transpired.
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1114.20 down $1.30 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.51. unchanged
In the access market 5:15 pm
As an alert to you, tomorrow is the FOMC jobs report. Although we all know that the results are phony, the bankers always use this opportunity to manipulate gold/silver. However judging from the poor regional surveys, the job growth number should be quite subdued.
National Science Foundation research proposal by Bethany Kolody, NSF graduate research fellow at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (emphasis added):
Impacts of Radioactive 137Cs on Marine Bacterioplankton: Effects of the Fukushima Disaster on Hawaii’s Kaneohe Bay Bacterial Communities
• Introduction: … Despite our dependence on marine bacteria, very little research has been conducted on how they respond to large-scale disasters… Fukushima Daiichi [is] the largest ever release of anthropogenic radionuclides into the ocean. The main pollutant, 137Cs… will first hit the US territories at the Hawaiian Pacific Islands in early 2014, diluted by only three orders of magnitude… the impacts of radioactive waste on marine microorganisms are largely unknown. Due to their short reproductive lifecycle and unicellularity, bacteria evolve faster than most eukaryotes when exposed to radiation, so much so that radiation is used in laboratories to induce mutagenesis. This project aims to assess the impacts of radiation on the bacterioplanktoncommunity of Kaneohe Bay in Oahu, Hawaii. The bay is in the direct path of Fukushima’s radioactive waste and has a bacterioplankton community that was well-characterized pre-disturbance, making it the ideal case study for the microscopic impacts of radioactive pollution. I will compare trends after radiation exposure to previously documented annual/seasonal fluctuations…
Monsanto likes to say that those of us against GMOs don’t use ‘real’ science to support claims that genetically modified crops are unsafe, but what about dirty money that infiltrates universities which supposedly do ‘good’ science on GM crops, soil, and the chemicals which are used to grow them?
A recent New York Times article exposed some of Monsanto’s infiltration into the world of ‘science,’ but a deeper inquiry into the emails coming forward through this article and from U.S. Right to Know public disclosure efforts shows a broader and more troubling picture of influence the agricultural sciences are under.
This troubling number underscores what is happening in the markets: $63 billion fleeing mutual funds just in the past three months.
It represents another sign that zero percent interest has screwed over the real economy.
Rather than “growth” in the form of money pouring into investments, we are seeing a flight from markets as stocks don’t operate as investments, but as zero percent “shares” in the confidence that the Federal Reserve will prevail in some mission to restore monetary integrity.
Whatever was left of that confidence faded away after Janet Yellen’s queasy speech on what she suggests may be eventual changes in the interest rate within a year. The market turned its stomach a bit, hanging on her uneasy words, but breathed and stood up straight again. At least she said something about what to expect.
The more Bernie Sanders rises in the polls, the more obvious it becomes that he’s being given the “Ron Paul treatment” by the Democratic Party. By that, I am referring to the way Ron Paul was ignored, derided and marginalized by the GOP establishment during his run for the Presidency in 2012.
Now it’s Mr. Sanders turn, and nowhere is this more evidenced than within the corridors of various unions.
We learn from Politico:
Keep eating that yummy Pacific Ocean fish...
The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant No. 2 nuclear reactor fuel is missing from the core containment vessel. (Source: Up to 100% of No. 2 Reactor Fuel May Have Melted, NHK World News, Sept. 25, 2015.)
Where did it go? Nobody knows.
Not only that but the “learning curve” for a nuclear meltdown is as fresh as the event itself because “the world has never seen anything like this,” never.