Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 20:15
These facts reveal the utter falsity of the propaganda drenched duplicitous data dumped by the BLS on behalf of vested interests who have captured our government and have an agenda requiring the public to be kept in the dark regarding their own dire financial situation. No matter how you slice the data, it reveals an absolute parallel to the situation during the Great Depression.
This can be taken two ways. One way is nice and the others is they all work for the guys.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Are they not always?
The coming Capital Controls are designed to protect the banks from YOU.
May 26, 2015
Of all the peculiarities about human nature, one of the most interesting in my opinion is that we’re so resistant to change.
Humans simply don’t deal with it well. We tend to root. We find comfort in familiarity.
And, even when the familiar becomes unpleasant, we still put up with it. We prefer to suffer through something that we know rather than change things and risk the unknown.
This is why people stay in bad relationships. Or why they continue working for bosses they dislike at jobs they despise. It’s the fear of change.
But everyone… absolutely everyone… has a breaking point. It’s a point where the status quo becomes so uncomfortable, so painful, that we snap. And walk away.
It’s the same in finance. People stick with what they know, even if they have to endure a little pain and suffering.
Today’s current banking environment is the perfect example. In the US, interest rates for most bank accounts are so low that they fail to keep up with inflation.
You are doing very well if you can generate a whopping 0.5% interest. In Canada rates can be a bit higher.
But when you compare these rates to even the official rates of inflation, it’s clear that savers are guaranteed to lose money.
In Europe it’s even worse. Interest rates at many banks are negative… so savers are actually paying the banks.
In theory there’s nothing wrong with paying your banker, presuming that they’re providing a real service.
Traditionally, banks were no different than a secure storage facility: depositors would pay a fee in exchange for the bank safeguarding their savings.
These days a lot of people might pay 50 bucks a month at a U-Store-It place to store $10,000 worth of junk. So why not pay a small fee for a banker to store $10,000 worth of cash?
The reason is that banks don’t operate like a storage facility.
It’s not like the proprietor of the U-Store-It is loaning out your sofa to make a few bucks on the side. If he were, it would be called fraud, and he’d go to jail for it.
Banks, on the other hand, are actually ENCOURAGED to take your hard earned savings and make a few extra bucks on the side.
In fact they have a history of making often absurd loans and wild, overleveraged bets using your money. Not theirs.
So just consider how insulting this is to actually to pay them interest; paying for the privilege of them gambling with your savings. It’s obscene.
But like I said, we all have a breaking point. And there will reach a level where rates get so low (or negative) that no rational person would continue holding money at a bank.
Why bother? You could just withdraw most of your balance, then pay a small fee for a safety deposit box that you stuff full of cash. Cheaper. Easier. Better.
Cash in your hand might pay 0% interest… but at least it doesn’t cost you.
But there’s a huge problem with this approach: there’s very little physical cash in the system.
According to the Federal Reserve, the amount of physical US currency in circulation is about $1.3 trillion. Yet the amount of “M2” money supply is nearly ten times that amount.
So just imagine if even 10% of people hit their breaking points and withdrew their money in cash– there wouldn’t be enough cash in the system to support this demand. And the banks would subsequently collapse.
If governments have proven anything to us over the last seven years, it is that they will do anything to keep the banks from going down.
This is a major reason why they’re trying to get rid of cash, and in some cases even criminalize it under the ridiculous auspices of the war on terror.
In the US, some of the more prevalent names in finance have started calling for an outright ban of cash, including a prominent economist from Citigroup.
(This is a rather convenient position for Citigroup.)
Greece is another great example– they’ve already implemented a tax on cash withdrawals and wire transfers. And further restrictions will inevitably follow.
These measures are all different forms of capital controls, designed to prevent you from taking your money away from such a destructive system.
In fact, I expect the next round of capital controls will be designed to protect the banks… from you.
When a government is bankrupt, the central bank is nearly insolvent, the banking system is illiquid, and an entire population suffers from interest rates that are either negative or below the rate of inflation, capital controls are a foregone conclusion.
They’ll hit just as soon as enough people reach their breaking points… when they say ‘enough is enough’ and they take their money out of the banking system.
Governments have done it before: they’ll declare a ‘bank holiday’ and then impose some sort of freeze on withdrawals. Just like we saw in Cyprus in 2013. Or the US in 1933.
The data and history are very clear on what will likely happen. We just can’t pinpoint the date.
Very few people will guess correctly and withdraw their cash the day before capital controls are imposed.
That’s why it makes sense to take certain steps now.
Consider holding some physical cash, including some healthier currencies like the Swiss franc or Singapore dollar, as well as precious metals.
More importantly, consider moving a portion of your savings to a rainy day fund at a well-capitalized bank overseas in a jurisdiction that isn’t bankrupt.
After all, it’s hard to imagine that you’ll be worse off for having some savings at a strong, healthy bank that actually pays a reasonable rate of return.
Until tomorrow, Simon Black
Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More Cash
Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 08:51 -0400
Not everything is “fine” in the land of European banks, in fact quite the opposite.
One day after Deutsche Bank warned of a massive $7 billion loss and the potential elimination of the bank’s dividend which had been a German staple since reunification, a move which many said was a “kitchen sinking” of the bank’s problems (but not Goldman, which said it was “not a kitchen sinking, but a sign of the magnitude of the challenge” adding that “this development confirms our view that the task facing new management is very demanding. Litigation issues do not end with this mark down – we expect them to persist for a multi-year period. We do not see this as a “clean up” but rather an indication of what the “fixing” of Deutsche Bank will entail over the 2015-18 period), it was the turn of Switzerland’s second biggest bank after UBS, Credit Suisse, to admit it too needs more cash when moments ago the FT reported that the bank is “preparing to launch a substantial capital raising” when the new CEO Thiam unveils his strategic plan for the bank in two weeks’ time.
FT adds that “while not specifying an amount, they pointed to a poll published last week by analysts at Goldman Sachs concluding that 91 per cent of investors expect the Swiss bank to raise more than SFr5bn in new equity.”
The stock price did not like it, although just like with DB, we expect the “story” to quickly become that the Swiss bank is putting all its dirty laundry to rest, so an equity dilution is actually quite positive. Incidentally, with DB stock green on the day following a dividend cut, perhaps it would go limit up if Deutsche Bank had announced a negative dividend?
The official narrative is well-known: the bank does not need the funds, it is simply a precaution ahead of new, more stringent capital requirements:
The capital is likely to be used to absorb losses triggered by a faster restructuring of the Swiss group, the people said. But Credit Suisse will also need higher capital ratios to comply with toughening demands from regulators.
The Swiss authorities are expected to announce an increase of minimum capital ratios over the coming months, which could prove more challenging for the bank than its better capitalised local rival, UBS. Credit Suisse’s common equity tier one capital ratio of 10.3 per cent compares with UBS’s 13.5 per cent
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
One thing is for sure. Simon Black has the hot hand on this one.
October 8, 2015
In 49 BC, a defiant Julius Caesar stood in front of his army at the River Rubicon and made the biggest decision of his life.
It was strictly forbidden by Roman law for a general to lead his army out of its province and into Rome. And the Rubicon marked the boundary.
“Alea iacta est!” (The die is cast!) he said, and led his army across the river into civil war.
The phrase “crossing the Rubicon” has stuck for more than 2,000 years, signifying a risky and dangerous point of no return.
This week, the United States government crossed the Rubicon.
In a fit of complete arrogance, a federal judge ruled that he has ‘jurisdiction’ over one of the biggest banks in mainland China, Bank of China (BOC), and demands that the bank turn over financial records to his court.
The judge is hearing a case brought by the luxury brand Gucci against an alleged Chinese counterfeiting ring for selling fake handbags in the United States.
The claim is that the Chinese defendants are sending their ill-gotten gains back to Bank of China in the mainland. And the judge wants to see their account activity.
Bank of China, as you can probably guess, is predominantly owned by the Chinese government.
So it goes without saying that this demand (not a request) is a direct affront at China’s sovereignty.
The only leverage the judge has is that Bank of China has a branch in New York City; it is officially a licensed bank in the US.
So if Bank of China doesn’t comply, the judge could theoretically order that their US license be revoked.
Once again, the United States is using its financial system as a weapon.
Since US dollars are the most widely used reserve currency in the world, every bank on the planet needs some access to the US banking system.
Whether you’re in London, Riyadh, Sydney, or Shanghai, the most widely traded commodities, bonds, and financial contracts in the world are primarily denominated in US dollars.
Plus most global trade takes place in US dollars.
So not only are banks forced to hold US dollars, they require access to the US banking system in order to clear and settle US dollar transactions.
Large international banks have what are known as ‘correspondent bank accounts’ or ‘nostro accounts’ with US banks.
So a big bank in Denmark, for example, may have a correspondent account with JP Morgan or Citibank in New York in order to facilitate its dollar transactions.
And sometimes foreign banks may even apply for their own US banking license, as in the case of Bank of China.
But if a bank were to be kicked out of the US banking system, it would be incredibly detrimental to its ability to hold and transact in US dollars. And hence quite difficult to participate in global trade and finance.
This financial leverage is an unbelievable advantage for the United States, and is a result of the rest of the world placing a great deal of trust in the US government.
But the government has shown time and time again that they are willing to abuse that trust and use their advantage as a weapon– one that is more powerful than the US military.
Just last year, the Treasury Department fined French bank BNP Paribas a whopping $9 billion for doing business with countries that the US doesn’t like, such as Cuba.
Of course, Cuba and the US are BFFs now. But I doubt BNP is getting a refund anytime soon.
And naturally, if BNP didn’t pay up, the US could threaten to evict them from its financial system.
It’s simply amazing that the US did that to its own ally.
Now they’re going after China, its biggest competitor.
The Chinese are already working on a parallel, competitive financial system.
They set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to compete with the vestigial IMF and World Bank.
And they’re nearing completion on an international payment system and clearing network to compete with SWIFT and the US financial system.
It’s called CIPS.
And once it’s up and running, there will likely be a rapid increase in the worldwide use of China’s currency for financial transactions– transactions that used to be executed in US dollars.
Sticking it to Bank of China like this only gives the Chinese government even more reason to wage war on the US financial system through CIPS.
The reduced demand for US dollars completely destroys America’s last remaining advantage.
If they can’t force the rest of the world to use the US banking system, then they won’t be able to force the rest of the world to hold US dollars or buy US government debt.
It weakens America considerably.
And when future historians write the history of the decline of the United States, there will no doubt be a chapter on how the US government made it a matter of national policy to consistently abuse the power entrusted to them by the global banking community.
Of course, Julius Caesar didn’t learn that lesson either.
After crossing the Rubicon, he won a long civil war, after which the Roman Senate made him dictator for life.
And fearing he would abuse it, he was assassinated just a few weeks later by the very people who trusted him with that power.
Until tomorrow, Simon Black
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
St. Louis Prepares For “Catastrophic Event” As Underground Fire Nears Nuclear Waste CacheTyler Durden on 10/07/2015 22:00 -0400
Beneath the surface of a St. Louis-area landfill lurk two things that should never meet: a slow-burning fire and a cache of Cold War-era nuclear waste, separated by no more than 1,200 feet.
As AP reports,
Government officials have quietly adopted an emergency plan in case the smoldering embers ever reach the waste, a potentially “catastrophic event” that could send up a plume of radioactive smoke over a densely populated area near the city’s main airport.
Although the fire at Bridgeton Landfill has been burning since at least 2010, the plan for a worst-case scenario was developed only a year ago and never publicized until this week, when St. Louis radio station KMOX first obtained a copy.
But don’t panic, as officials say it is “contained”…
County Executive Steve Stenger cautioned that the plan “is not an indication of any imminent danger.”
“It is county government’s responsibility to protect the health, safety and well-being of all St. Louis County residents,” he said in a statement.
Landfill operator Republic Services downplayed any risk. Interceptor wells — underground structures that capture below-surface gasses — and other safeguards are in place to keep the fire and the nuclear waste separate.
“County officials and emergency managers have an obligation to plan for various scenarios, even very remote ones,” landfill spokesman Russ Knocke said in a statement. The landfill “is safe and intensively monitored.”
The cause of the fire is unknown. For years, the most immediate concern has been an odor created by the smoldering. Republic Services is spending millions of dollars to ease or eliminate the smell by removing concrete pipes that allowed the odor to escape and installing plastic caps over parts of the landfill.
Directly next to Bridgeton Landfill is West Lake Landfill, also owned by Republic Services. The West Lake facility was contaminated with radioactive waste from uranium processing by a St. Louis company known as Mallinckrodt Chemical. The waste was illegally dumped in 1973 and includes material that dates back to the Manhattan Project, which created the first atomic bomb in the 1940s.
The fastest on record! A currency crash usually follows.
CIGA David MadisonStyle
China, Russia, Norway, Brazil, Taiwan Dump US Treasuries by Wolf Richter • October 8, 2015
Five large purchasers of US Treasuries – China, Russia, Norway, Brazil, and Taiwan – have changed their minds. They’re dumping Treasuries, each for their own reasons that are now coinciding. And at the fastest rate on record.
For the 12-month period ended July, sales of Treasuries by central banks around the world reached a net of $123 billion, “the biggest decline since data started to be collected in 1978,” the Wall Street Journal reported.
China, the largest foreign owner of Treasuries – its hoard peaking at $1.317 trillion in November 2013 – has been unloading with particular passion. By July, the latest data available from the US Treasury Department, China’s pile was down to $1.241 trillion. But in August, the real selling started when the yuan suddenly spiraled down further after its devaluation. Panicked, and fearful of losing control over their currency, officials at the People’s Bank of China sold Treasuries and bought yuan to stabilize the currency.
That month, China’s foreign exchange reserves, which include a variety of currencies, dropped by a record $93.9 billion. And in September, they dropped another $43.3 billion, to $3.51 trillion. It was the fifth month in a row of declines. The Journal:
Internal estimates at the PBOC show that it spent between $120 billion and $130 billion in August alone in bolstering the yuan’s value, according to people close to the central bank.
Russia unloaded $32.8 billion in Treasuries in the 12-month period ended in July; Norway, which like Russia was hit by the oil price rout, sold $18.3 billion, and Taiwan $6.8 billion.
Not all central banks were sellers. India added $36.6 billion to its stash over the 12-month period. And the Fed, which after five years of QE is sitting on more Treasuries than any other central bank, is hanging on to its pile of $2.45 trillion, diligently rolling over any maturing debt.
This is what that staggering reversal of flows looks like; note how foreign central banks started curtailing their purchases already in 2013, when the end of the Fed’s QE moved into sight:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 20:40 If you've ever complained about your commute, or the traffic jams on your way to vacation destinations, here is some context from China...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 19:45 "We simply exhausted the productivity benefits of prior innovations. In the late 19th century, hugely important 'general purpose' technologies, like electricity and the internal combustion engine, were invented."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 19:15 If Western governments didn’t want a refugee crisis, they shouldn’t have been so eager to topple those governments and destabilize those countries. The refugees should camp out in the backyards of the individuals who run those governments.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 18:45 Despite 'promises' of lower healthcare costs (from President Obama) and 'promises' of a comfortable retirement (if only you invest all your savings in stocks), Bloomberg reports the average 65-year-old couple retiring this year will face health-care costs of $245,000 in the years ahead, up 11% from 2014.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 17:44 "An invented excuse about the suggested threat coming from Russia is possibly just camouflage used to disguise the plans to further expand NATO toward our borders."
To Infinity and Beyond...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 17:15 "...the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined with the very oversold conditions, led to a frantic 'short covering' rally back to previous resistance. It is worth noting that the recent market action is very similar to that of the August decline and initial rebound as well... . If the market is still confined within a more "bearish" trend, the current rally, like the ones that preceded it, will be a "rally to nowhere."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 16:54 This is the story of a veteran NYSE specialist who noticed manipulation in the NYSE market open Imbalance, loudly complained to the NYSE, was ignored, then decided to profit from said manipulation himself... and got busted. And that's where the story begins...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 16:28 As The GOP lurches from turmoil to chaos, following speaker-in-waiting McCarthy's pulling out, Fox News Bret Baier reports that Speaker John Boehner has agreed to stay on as Speaker - not just until the Caucus nominates someone - but, until that person can confirm 218 votes on the House floor (needed to take the Speaker’s gavel).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 16:27 While Alcoa did have the usual justifications for the collapse in its Q3 sales and EPS, blaming what else but China, the real culprit is none of that. Because, as regular readers know too well, with Alcoa it is all about the Non-GAAP addbacks.... and the problem here is that while in previous quarters Alcoa's "restructuring" charges were vast, usually eclipsing the actual GAAP earnings number, in Q3 they tumbled to "only" $66 million - the lowest since March 2013.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 16:06
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 15:50 We're often asked whether we really believe that government and policymakers intentionally create laws and policies that hurt the people and help themselves. The answer is typically that, “if you’re asking me this question you know I do but you don’t believe me; so either do your own research or continue to live in the world as you wish to perceive it. I’m not here to beg you to open your f##king eyes.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 15:30 I got your back...
filed under Dumb (unt....sorry always forget the last )
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 15:22 "Thanks to President Obama’s leadership and the determination and sacrifice of the American people, we’ve worked our way out of that ditch and put our economy on sounder footing. Now we have to keep going.
To prevent irresponsible behavior on Wall Street from ever again devastating Main Street, we need more accountability, tougher rules and stronger enforcement. I have a plan to build on the progress we’ve made under President Obama and do just that."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 15:13 Because the worst jobs data in years is reason to BTFD at a record pace... what a farce...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 15:10 Forget Norway. Japan. Iceland. Switzerland. Or any of the other places around the world that are notorious for being painful on the wallet. Venezuela is now the most expensive country in the world, hands down. To give you an idea, the cost of a 15-minute taxi ride to the beach yesterday afternoon totaled an eye-popping $158.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 14:24 UPDATE: Stocks are now soaring after we noted the initial reaction...
A decidedly dovish FOMC Minutes, warning that the economy is not ready for rate-hikes, has driven rate-hike odds to their lows once again. December and January odds are now below 50% and markets are reacting with bond, crude, and bullion buying, dollar selling and stocks uncertainty.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 14:20 "During their discussion of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants indicated that they did not see the changes in asset prices during the intermeeting period as bearing significantly on their policy choice except insofar as they affected the outlook for achieving the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives and the risks associated with that outlook."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 14:10 WSJ’s Fed whisperer is always good for a bit of Eccles propaganda and so, for whatever it's worth to you, we present the following Hilsy interpretation of the just-released minutes from the “most important” Fed meeting in recent history.
FOMC Minutes Confirm Economy Not Ready For Rate-Hike This Year, Worried About Inflation, "Global Risk"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 14:04 Given the tumble and stock save since September's infamous "chickening out" FOMC Meeting, investors hope today's minutes will provide some color on just how close Janet and her merry men were to pulling the trigger:
- *FED OFFICIALS SAID `PRUDENT' TO WAIT FOR CLARITY ON OUTLOOK
- *FOMC MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS SEE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET THIS YR
- *FOMC MINUTES: ALL BUT ONE MEMBER SAID ECON COND DIDN'T WARRANT HIKE
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1988.25, 10Y 2.095%, Gold $1145, EUR 1.1285
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 13:56 "The force that they have deployed down there is actually quite impressive for a rapid deployment of a week or so. It is all arms, combined arms, attack aircraft, it is the attack helicopters and artillery, rocket artillery. NATO is ready and able to defend all allies, includin
I recently came across one of the saddest statistics that I have ever seen in my entire life. Less than a week ago, I was roaming around Denver International Airport and I decided to pick up a copy of USA Today and catch up with what was going on in the world. As I read the paper, one particular story really grabbed my attention. A poll had been taken to find out how Americans felt about potentially cutting off federal funding for Planned Parenthood. I figured that it would be pretty close to 50/50, and considering all of the revelationsthat have come out in recent months I wouldn’t have even been surprised if a majority of Americans wanted to defund the organization. Well, it turns out that the survey discovered that Americans are against cutting off federal funding for Planned Parenthood by a more than two to one margin. Here is an excerpt from that USA Today article…
The stupid, it burns…..
I’ve had people in the so-called financial industry, and their captive media, scoff at me when I explain exactly how the so-called “economic growth” we’ve posted up over the last 30 or so years has been a scam — and more-importantly, why it cannot continue.
To recap the reason for all of this (and the ramp in the markets over the same 30 year period) is this:
Rates are at 10%. You can borrow $1 million as long as you can come up with $100,000 in interest every year. Note that the expectation is that you would pay off said bond when it matures, so if you’re going to do that in five years (a 5-year bond, not an amortized loan) you’d need to come up with $1,500,000 — $1 million in principal for the bond 5 years hence and and $500,000 for the five years of interest payments (the latter typically being paid out quarterly.)
What gold and silver investors want to know above all is when the bull market will resume. In a very real sense, it already has resumed. Futures market prices aside, evidence abounds that a raging bull market in physical precious metals is now underway.
In the third quarter (ending September 30th), coin demand went through the roof. Mints literally couldn’t keep up with demand. The dysfunctional U.S. Mint rationed deliveries of Silver Eagles, failing to fulfill its mandate under law of keeping the market supplied. Even so, investors bought up a record 18.59 million ounces’ worth of silver Eagle coins in the past 4 months.
Earlier this week I suggested, based on the sudden big spike up in Fed reverse repos in mid-September that there was some kind of derivatives accident that required the Fed to flood the global financial system with Treasury collateral, which is used to satisfy derivatives margin calls.
This was likely connected to everything that has cratered in value since June 2014, when the price of oil crashed: high yield bonds, industrial commodities, emerging market currencies, biotech stocks, Glencore, Volkswagen and now Deutsche Bank.
Glencore was originally said to have $30 billion of debt. However, that number did not include the $50 billion in bank credit lines outstanding plus an undetermined amount of unsecured trade finance deals. The total exposure to Glencore debt by banks and investors is now estimated to be as high as $100 billion – LINK.
With $100 billion a year now being spent on toxic chemotherapy treatments that damage patients and cause “chemo brain” side effects, a panel of cancer experts commissioned by the National Cancer Institute publicly admitted two years ago that tens of millions of “cancer cases” aren’t cancer at all.
Tens of millions of people who have been diagnosed with “cancer” by crooked oncologists — and scared into medically unjustified but extremely profitable chemotherapy treatments — never had any sort of life-threatening condition to begin with, scientists have confirmed.
Belgium sold 1,098 tonnes of its official gold reserves since 1978.
For our global investigation how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, I decided to submit the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium, de Nationale Bank van België (NBB), to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what I had expected.