Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 09:56
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 12:53 Two months after French president Hollande, under heavy pressure from NATO, decided to scrap a deal to deliver two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia which were sold to Egypt instead, the same French President announced on Wednesday that he "expects to sell new warships to Russia in the near future." To which Moscow promptly replied as follows....
Now that a major global recession has begun, you would expect major retailers like Wal-Mart to run into trouble as consumer spending dries up, and that is precisely what is happening. On Wednesday, shares of Wal-Mart experienced their largest single day decline in 27 years after an extremely disappointing earnings projection was released. The stock was down about 10 percent, which represented the biggest plunge since January 1988. Over 21 billion dollars in shareholder wealth was wiped out on Wednesday, and this was just the continuation of a very bad year for Wal-Mart stockholders. Overall, shares had already declined by 22 percent so far in 2015 before we even got to Wednesday. Here is more on this stunning turn of events from Bloomberg…
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 12:38 The fact of the matter is that year over year retail sales at these levels only happen during recessions. It’s really that simple. Without the crutch of subprime auto loans and student loan debt being spent by pretend University of Phoenix students on iGadgets, fitbits, hookers and blow, this economy would already be in free fall. Look no further than what happened to Wal-Mart today for confirmation we are in the midst of a worldwide recession, if not depression. The only people who refuse to acknowledge recession reality are the Wall Street hucksters, looking to fleece a few more muppets before their party is over. Propaganda and lies can’t stop this recession.
Groundhog Day: "I Woke Up This Morning After Horrible Economic News And First Question Was How Much Are Stocks Up"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 12:14 "The economic numbers released yesterday can best be described with a reference to wheels falling off the bus. And it wasn’t just retail sales and PPI in the U.S. but numbers from around the world, including China. So, of course, when I woke up this morning the obvious first question to ask was, how much are equities up?"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 12:04 The Fed's Bill Dudley is out on the speaking-circuit today and dropped some clangers during the Q&A. Initially proclaiming that monetary policy should be independent from politics he then admitted that "The Fed can't be completely walled off from politics." Then he spooked stocks with his comment that "actual inflation is not needed for confidence on the 2% goal," or roughly translated - we'll hike no matter what the data says...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 11:56 Forget 6-Second-Abs. In just two 5-minute periods per hour, you too can become a billionaire guru "investing" expert, laud over your peers, and demand respect from every business media anchor. The trick is in our patent-pending "know when to buy 'em and sell 'em" timing model...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 11:37 If housing tanks, the last prop under the veneer of middle class wealth collapses. No wonder the Powers That Be are so desperate to prop up housing. But the bubbles and busts they've engineered are integral to credit/asset booms; their goal--a steady, permanent rise in prices that never falters--simply isn't possible.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 11:15 For those who revel in watching Russia fly warplanes over Syria, you’re in luck, because The Russian Defense Ministry has just taken it up a notch by attaching a GoPro to a Su-25... No, really.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 11:08 Crude has fallen to fresh 2-week lows.
While less than API's huge 9.3mm barrel build reported last night, DOE reported a 7.56mm barrel inventory build - the largest in over 6 months. This is the highest crude stock level seasonally on record. Crude prices dipped on the news but rallied back to pre-data levels - though are notably holding on to the losses from the API print... even as production dropped notably week-over-week.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:54 As the old adage goes: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and as the recent bombing of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz clearly shows, the US military presence in Afghanistan is doing wonders for stability and security which is presumably why the Obama administration has just done a 180 on troop deployment in the country.
The Bundesbank recently published the list of all its gold bars on its website in its inaugural report. This is the first time the country has done so. Germany has been in the limelight in recent years after requesting that the New York Fed return its gold. The bank has seemed to turn away from storing 65% of its gold reserves overseas with central banks in London, Paris and New York. The Bild-Zeitung, in 2012, ran an article entitled “Bring Our Gold Back Home.” Bundesbank officials began making moves in 2013.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:47 Nothing focuses the mind more than either the lure of riches or, the loss of them. And there has been no other group caught up more in the lure for riches than: the disruption class. Disrupting is what it’s been all about over these last few years. However, there’s another disruption on the technological horizon heading right towards Silicon Valley itself, and that brewing storm is – disruption of the disrupt-ers. Now might be the perfect time to take a position in any solid company with the ability to manufacture quality “crying towels” and get them quickly to market. After all: Unicorn tears we’ve all been told are far different from most others.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:40 If you play the Illinois lottery and win more than $600, you are getting an IOU...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:37 We can however state with confidence that the bubble will eventually burst and that the greatest monetary policy experiment of the post WW2 era will fail – in all likelihood quite spectacularly. So we have every reason to remain long term bullish on gold and gold-related investments. Moreover, by looking closely at past lows of significance we have hopefully been able to provide a bit of a road map in case the recent low does indeed represent a major pivot point.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:26 After IPO'ing at $16 - well below the $18-20 expected range - FDC has tumbled back from $16.41 highs (after opening at $16.31) on heavy volume to below its IPO price... $15.75 seems like the first line of defense.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:17 Philly Fed general business activity somehow managed to rise very modestly in October from -6.0 to -4.5 but missed expectations. This the second monthly decline in a row - not seen since 2013. We say "somehow" as the underlying components were a total and utter disaster. New Orders collapsed from +9.4 to -10.6, Unfilled orders crashed to -11.7, Employment plunged from 10.2 to -1.7, and workweek evaporated from +7.0 to -7.3. Even "hope" collapsed with future expectations dropping from 44.0 to 36.7 with CapEx expectations cliff diving.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 10:16 Brazil's economic recession is likely to be deeper and longer than Fitch's earlier expectations and its performance has diverged materially from those of its rating peers. Medium-term prospects also look weak compared to peers and most other large emerging markets. Fitch forecasts that Brazil's economy will contract by 3% and 1%, respectively in 2015 and 2016 before recording modest growth in 2017, with risks skewed largely to the downside.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 09:55 Remember the relief? The last 4 weeks have seen Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index rise at the fastest pace since its "Off The Lows" move from March 2009... The driver, apparently, was women whose comfort rose from 41.6 to 43.0 as men dropped from 48.2 to 47.6; and while "white" people's comfort dropped from 45.3 to 44.5, "black" people surveyed saw a huge jump from 40.3 to 45.9 in their comfort.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 09:22 Correlation? Or Causation? You decide...
They will print money to Infinity and beyond...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 09:14 “The trend in our projected net resources has continued to be negative," warns Treasury Secretary Lew forcing the administration to move up the deadline for the end of extraordinary measures from Nov 5th to Nov 3rd.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 09:07 While the September Consumer Price Inflation report was in line with expectations, with the headline CPI declining -0.2% in the month - the biggest monthly drop since January - and unchanged from a year ago, just as consensus predicted, it was all about the core CPI where attention was focused, and especially one item: rent, which rising at 3.7% Y/Y is now the hottest it has been since the fall of 2007.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 08:45 After collapsing in August and unable to get up in September, October's Empire Fed bounced very modestly from -14.67 to -11.36 (but missed expectations for the 7th month of the last 8). This is the first time since 2009 that Empire Fed has printed below -10 3 months in a row putting The US firmly in recession territory, the underlying components were ugly with New orders crashing at the fastest pace since Nov 2010. Employees tumbled (as did inventories, although the plunge slowed) with prices received plumbing new cycle lows. In other words, total disaster... time to hike rates.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 08:35 The yawning gap between job cuts (surging most since 2009) and initial jobless claims (hovering near 42 year lows) continues to grow as initial jobless claims collapse 7k this week to 255k - the lowest since 1973. Bear in mind, Goldman's explanation that jobless claims are useless in this part of the business cycle..."this does not signal a booming labor market."
Goldman Suffers Terrible Quarter After FICC, Prop Trading Revenues Plunge; Banker Comp At Five Year LowsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 08:02 Once again, Jefferies' one-month early glimpse at Wall Street trading revenues proved to be spot on. After the boutique mid-market banks reported a total collapse in fixed income trading revenues (which ended up negative following massive charge offs), everyone was looking at the biggest hedge fund among the TBTF banks - Goldman Sachs - to see just how bad the trading environment really is. The answer came moments ago, and the answer is bad. Very bad.
After publishing yesterday’s article, I felt I had provided the readers with a lot of information to consider with regard to the growing South China Sea controversy. It is a controversy that will soon see American warships entering into the region. A few hours after publishing the previous article, I had an epiphany. I was mentally replaying the geographic area of contention in my mind and in my “Ah ha” moment, I began to wonder if the aggressiveness on display by the Chinese might have something to do with unhinging the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).
While appearing as a guest on the Hagmann and Hagmann Report last night, at the end of the interview, I speculated as to whether China’s building of militarized, artificial Islands could possibly have anything to do with disrupting the TPP in favor of the newer BRICS hegemony? In the paragraphs below lies the analysis of this hypothesis.
Russia’s current involvement in Syria certainly seemed to catch Western observers off guard. It was only a few weeks ago that the construction of Russia’s air base in Lakatia was being hinted at by the media. Now we’re witnessing an extensive air campaign against ISIS affiliated forces (or Syrian freedom fighters depending on which propaganda outlet you listen to) as Russia tries to reestablish its military as a formidable player on the global stage.
Make no mistake though, this isn’t the new normal. This conflict is still very fluid, and major developments seem to be emerging every week, the latest of which involves Iran’s ground forces in Syria. It’s no secret that Hezbollah units, guided by Iranian advisers, have been acting as Russia’s boots on the ground. Until recently however, they’ve been keeping a low profile. That’s about to change in a very big way as Iran shifts away from an advisory role, to taking direct action in the conflict with conventional forces.
President Obama’s questionable sanity is now not just being noticed by mental health professionals or political activist and Presidential nominee Lyndon Larouche.
The Money GPS:
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 13:33 Here is what happened: a whistleblower who worked for the Federal Whistleblower Protection Program was fired for blowing the whistle on his employer: the very agency that was supposed to protect him.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 - 13:15 As has already been discussed at length, once the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union on Iran begin to be lifted next year, there is going to be a surge in the already oversupplied global crude oil markets. Although the surge in crude oil markets could further worsen the global supply/demand gap, Iran could present a new source of competition on other crucial fronts too, especially in the gas markets.