Friday, October 19, 2012

Must Read...How A Metals Dealer Works...

You have been given the keys to the Golden Castle...Read...Study... and get to work... I just wish I could scrape up enough to join you...


Jim,

Happy to have brought a smile to you yesterday. Days can be long and trying at times, so a laugh is welcomed. I have hesitated for weeks to write this but I am not in sync, so here I go.
The action in the ‘Crimex’ this week was not unexpected. The political demands and possible (a hair’s breathe from) commercial signal failure, meant the paper gold printing machines would be pushed to emptied toner cartridges. As said, not unexpected. Temporary but not unexpected.
My head scratching comes from the question, where does the ‘physical’ metal come from to satisfy the growing buy stops hit as price comes down? And to piggy back on this question, do foreign entities, Central Banks , and investors ‘take’ delivery; in other words, leave the Bullion System with the metal? Or does it sit in their care? (lol)
Realizing they are ‘Bullion Banks’, could you step through how they receive their physical metal from miners/refiners and the mechanism used to arrive at that price (I am familiar and understand the ‘FIX’). But it appears that the industry ‘allows’ these banks to paper push the price paid around based solely on the Bank’s own contract positions.
This is where I scratch my head , WHY??? The miners hold the commodity and are at the mercy of the Bullion Banks for their very survival, as it appears to me . Where am I wrong?
CIGA Earl

Dear Earl,

Many are asking themselves the same question.
In order to explain to you the proper answer to this question I need to ask you a question. What is the "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury? The answer is it is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX. In comparison the "Weak Gold Policy" has been in place since $248 which means gold’s appreciation will not be an insult to the dollar by spiking to $3500 and beyond, but rather rise in an orderly fashion. How could you not have noticed this in both the dollar and gold? This opens the bonanza to the metals dealer to run what looks like a huge short but rather to operate their business where I was pleased to make one half a dollar unwinding the spread (a long position versus a short position offsetting between my buying product from the producer versus Comex short).
Today the metals dealer want to make fifty dollars, not 50 cents on that spread.
I owned a metals dealer here and in London. I made a cash market for gold. I know about what I speak. There might be outside of the gold banks less than five people who understand the big short that is always being screamed about by the so called gold experts, and COT is a crock. You are looking at least seventy-five percent at a managed spread position. What happened at $1800 then at $1775 and again at $1750 was the long side of the spread was dropped, leaving the short side exploded and the gold banks pounding the market to make a 50% profit by putting back on the long side of the spreads, locking the huge physical long versus the Comex short into a no risk position that reads on COT like the greatest short in human history. The same is true of silver. In this financially debased world, with the rules of a metal dealer’s company and a little help for standard financial fraud and you will never find this in the COT numbers. 

I am telling you the truth. I am telling you how a metals dealer works. I know because I was successful in the entire 1970s gold bull market play against this game.

Here comes the "Golden Truth." When the gold banks perceive that the gold market is about to go ballistic, just like any bull market does, they need only reverse the strategy in place from $248 called "The Weak Gold Policy" in how they handle the 75% risk-less spread. Now when gold falls you takes off the short aside of the spread with gusto and let the long run. The biggest money I ever made was when my very interesting partner and I went into the Sinclair Global Arbitrage Company and asked them how many ounces of gold and silver they had in a spread position. When they told us the huge number over 15,000 contracts spread we told them follow our instruction. Take every short off the spread making us naked long. This was when the gold price broke $400 the second time over, running like a bunny to $887.75.
You must note how central banks are either buying or protecting their gold reserve positions now. This is total about face two years ago. There is another change coming which is a replacement monetary system and the need for some asset on central bank’s balance sheets to have positive value, especially in the USA. Soon all that is required is a change in spread management by the gold banks and you will have whatever price the gold banks want from $3,500 to $12,400.
All the COT numbers are nonsense and a means of operating the markets. COT experts give buy and sell signals which help the physical metals dealers profit on their spread trading. The COT experts help this spread trading looking for immense profit to profit immensely. Nonsense makes markets so the COT analyst looks like a genius while really interpreting nonsense when he/she is being duped into a tool to help the metals dealers spread position profit.

I have told you 1000 times that the greatest profit over the shortest period of time will be made by the gold bank physical dealers.
Because I know.
Because it requires only a shift in spread trading tactic handling of the spreads. 
Because it is simple.
Because in truth the gold banks are simple.
Because I did not get named "Mr. Gold" in the seventies because I wrote on gold.
Because in the 70s I ran the gold market and the gold price by attacking the dealer’s spread position which no one has done so far in this market.
Because attacking a spread position is simple. You simple run the opposite spread tactics with major balls and major PR.
Because I like keeping it simple.
Because the proof on this is that the gold banks got pissed. Both I and my partner were brought before the board of directors of the exchange under the accusation that we two running huge spreads between us, thereby manipulating the world’s gold markets.

Wake up experts, you have been had and your comments to the community are helping make sure they are had. You are tools of the gold banks and do not even know it. Your sage comments when I hear them from readers makes me sick because it is ignorant of the business.
Now I know this is going to cost me big, but you must understand what I am teaching you above. If you do not understand ask me the questions but no tomes please, all in at least 24 font, no other "expert" articles please. Just write me on what you are stuck on and I will try to clear your understanding of what you own or trade.
Please do not argue with me because you will only be demonstrating your ignorance, not your knowledge.
If you are convinced the decorated professor is a turkey, guess who really is the turkey.

Respectfully,
Jim


Dear CIGAs,

The following is a question and answer segment on today’s eblast, "How A Metals Dealer Works."

Question: In your posting "How a Metals Dealer Works", you mention the spread trade the metals dealers have. Is that the spread between buying physical from the miners/refiners and the Comex?

Answer: It is selling on the Comex or any forward contract on any exchange.

Question: When they take their longs off, do you mean that they are selling their physical into the market?

Answer: Wherever the longs are and in any form they are in.

Question: Given the size, that seems a lot of risk exposure as they are becoming naked short.

Answer: When you are crashing the market you take the exposure. These guys you all think are idiot shorts are not. They are geniuses with only one purpose: to pick your pocket to make money. Do you really believe that these great names hire jerks as traders and sit out horrible position? It is you who are mad.

Question: Are you arguing that this risk is mitigated because they know that if they can push gold through some stops, they are confident that they will be able to replace the physical they sold with (i) either more physical or (ii) futures contracts by those that are puking them out?

Answer: They are whacked out wild risk takers utilizing spreads to camouflage their tactics.

Question: That seems a little risky if the market decides to absorb the gold they are selling and push it higher – that would result in them getting short squeezed, correct? Is that what happened when Sinclair Global Arbitrage advised the metals dealer to take off the short side of their 15,000 contract spread trade?  I was 35 years old and indestructible. I still believe me.

Answer: It was fish in a barrel and yes I risked bankruptcy as well.

Question: If so, then who has deep enough pockets and the guts to do that in today’s market?

Answer: Deep pockets? Have you never heard of margin up the the ass?

Question: I could see a central bank doing it, but it seems unlikely that a metals dealer would do it (because they would be fighting the rest of the metals dealers community – i.e.. it would take a lot of size, would ostracize them from their peers, and would break the profitable cartel that the metals dealers enjoy).

Answer: It is done conspiratorially and no dealer is fighting any other dealer. Remember I used to be one of these guys as a kid and they are my family relations. I had a billion in position when I might have had a few million behind it. Risk was my food. I could not live without it. I was born Jesse Seligman




Jim,
If banks can control the market downward and can do just the opposite, why does it seem they are more interested in the downward side? Is it from collusion with government that does not want gold to go up?  And if so, how do they lose control? Just trying to make sense of this…
Thanks, as always,
CIGA Kirk

Dear Kirk,
Here is where you miss the point completely. The market price of gold has risen from $248 to the present $1720. This game may appear when it happened as if the gold banks are wild ass bears, but they are not. They are grabbing $50 and $75 today where if I made $0.50 I was happy. They use fear and MSM to reduce the risk they do take when they open the spread.
If I use any words like spread that you might not understand on www.jsmineset.com, www.investopedia.com has a financial dictionary available to readers on it.
Regards,
Jim



Hello Jim,
Do you think there is any place in the world that will be better to be when our financial system collapses?
We hear that Ecuador is the cheapest place to retire, but they use the USD.  Won’t the same thing happen to them as to us as the dollar declines? Would an Asian country be a better place to be financially?
Thanks much,
CIGA Beverly

Beverly,
You have to be happy with your alternative location. I like India and Tanzania. I have homes and family in both locations.
Semi rural India costs about $100 a month to live once you have your home. Africa is higher but not a lot once you have established yourself and are willing not to live like the average Masungu.
Travel to the possibilities and try them. The worst thing would be to hate where you decided to go.
Jim


Jim,
Thanks for your recent post about the metals dealers and how they make their money. You have saved my family and many here in California from economic destruction. Spread trading is logical and makes perfect sense. The question I have is how do derivatives and the amount of worldwide debt there is now, along with all the accounting fraud, factor into the equation? Were these factors around in the late 70′s?
CIGA Kyle
 
Kyle,
What you asked functions into the WHY of gold at $3500 or higher.
Trading is a game. Spread trading is like being a professional gambler in Las Vegas.  The two do not speak to one another.
The fundamental is the long term determinant. The trader’s is the price of gold determined from now to the close. The trader influence in the long term will be seen as a pimple on the ass of an elephant but they sure run the gang’s emotions wild.
We should all enjoy our weekends. I am going to the Sheep and Wool festival.
Many gold people will not sleep this weekend because they do not understand the game going on. You should now understand. Therefore you should enjoy your weekend as I will.
Regards,
Jim



Dear Jim,
What is your dream?
Arlen

Dear Arlen,
My dream, when everyone is on the other side of this drama and in one piece, is an isolated one room cabin in Alaska on a lakefront.
Jim


Jim,
Today’s article responding to your reader about how spread trades work was great. Readers would really appreciate a simple visual trading example on how it works. What can the average retail investor do to counter these spread trades other than going long and holding the position in allocated metal?
Regards,
CIGA Harold

Harold,
Simple. Sell a little on every rhino horn. Buy a little on every fishing line
Be happy.
Jim


Hi Jim,
You wrote a great piece in your last article.  I am a novice gold investor, and excuse me for my lack of knowledge in how the gold market works, but I am hung up on how exactly the gold market gets manipulated.  I have read many articles suggesting the Fed, gold bullion banks, short traders, etc.  Is there one or two driving forces that are keeping the prices low, or at least, running the prices through a slow deliberate manner?  I understand that traders and banks are constantly positioning themselves to profit from short term trades, but are these trades enough to drive the gold prices, or is there a mix of actions going on that affect the price?  I would appreciate your thoughts on this, as I am sure you have written about this many times, and I am just learning the basics!
Thanks,
CIGA Steve

Steve,
Today I taught you how it is really done. Call on me anytime you need help.  I am here for you.
Try me so I will prove it.
Jim


Mr. Sinclair,
Thank you for posting, and sharing with all of us, your latest missive concerning the great "arb." I too was a dealer of sorts (options market maker at the CBOE for almost 20 years). I have one question: Wouldn’t it be prescient of the actual miners to take product off of the market and hold some back? If enough producers could collectively do this, wouldn’t this put a chink in the armor of the dealer’s need for physical supply to balance their spread?
Thanks for all that you do to help/inform your followers.
CIGA Tim

Tim,
Yes, absolutely.
The problem is simple. Management or the board of gold mining companies are Rock Heads. The only value they attach to gold is the real price they mine at, not the accountant fiddled higher price.
The biggest bears on earth from $248 to $1200 was the major gold producers short of gold on their OTC derivative sales. The entities who have no understanding of the gold price or even a feeling of kindred-ship with gold price, are the major gold producers.
They are too busy living off the spoils to think of the gold investors.
They are too busy living off the spoils to think about the shareholders.
They will never do anything to help gold, ever.

Their only thought when gold rises is how they can increase production. Now when they talk they pay gold respect, but not when they talk privately. Certainly not when they are trying to increase production to sell it as fast as they can.
It would be breaking a long standing tradition of the Rocks & Humps Society to help the gold price.
Regards,
Jim



Jim,
We will see if FERC has more backbone than the CFTC.
CIGA Craig

Craig,
FERC, yes a regulator. I suggest that you do not hold your breath waiting for a serious, by the rules, liquidate positions sanction to come down.
Jim


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