Tuesday, October 9, 2012

European Banks Need To Sell Up $4.5 Trillion In Assets In Next 14 Months, IMF Warns

While yesterday it was the sovereigns who suffered the wrath of the IMF's wholesale growth outlook downgrade (unbeknownst to Christine Lagarde), today it is the turn of the financial sector (which is increasingly being blurred with the former in a world in which central banks are used to both backstop bank liabilities and fund endless public deficits, unafraid of the consequences in a closed loop fiat world in which defection is, so far, impossible) to be greeted by a cold dose of reality emanating from the IMF's "Global Financial Stability Report" especially as pertains to Europe's insolvent banking system. The most notable finding of said report is the admission that the IMF was only kidding when it said six months ago, in April of this year, that the worst case outlook now has European banks deleveraging to the tune of $3.8 trillion through the end of 2013, or over the next 14 months: now this number is 18% higher, or a gargantuan $4.5 trillion (12% of bank assets). This is how much debt Eurobanks will need to shed in a "weak policies" case in which Europe continues to delay implementing fiscal reform, aka austerity, as per Figure 2.14. Even the baseline (and this being the IMF it means it has zero chance of happening) scenario is not much better, at a revised $2.8 (7.3%) trillion in deleveraging. The reason for the increase is due to "lower expected earnings, higher losses linked to worsened economic conditions, and greater funding pressures on banks."

Are Businesses Quietly Preparing For A Financial Apocalypse?

US corporations are sitting on more cash than at any point since World War II. That's without including banks. We're only talking about nonfinancial corporations – the ones that sell goods and services and make the economy go. Those businesses hold $1.4 trillion. As investors, we can infer quite a bit from corporations' inability (or unwillingness) to deploy their cash. For one, it indicates that business have assumed a very defensive stance. Cash, of course, is a buffer against uncertainty - the uncertainty that business slows for any reason. But $1.4 trillion? That tells us that businesses are not just a little jittery about the future. They're prepared for an apocalypse.

Everything You Need To Know About Resolving The Fiscal Cliff But Were Afraid To Ask

With the market seemingly oblivious to the dismal reality of the fiscal-cliff (from a priced-in perspective) in the same way as equities trade at four-year highs while earnings are at three-year lows; it is perhaps useful to get a grasp of the maelstrom that awaits congress as they begin to tackle the fiscal-cliff on November 12. As we discussed here, the downside potential is considerable with complacency high and just as Goldman expects no real progress to be made until December (at the earliest), the market (i.e. a correction) may be the only lever to move our political elite from their respective higher ground. While talk will be of 'grand bargains', we, like Goldman, remain skeptical that any broad reform package will be completed and instead some short-term extension may be achieved. The following Q&A explains how that sausage could be made in all its gory detail. (e.g. Q: Can Congress actually put together a "grand bargain" fiscal agreement in the short time available? A: It is difficult to see how.)

South African rand continues to plummet by another 1.3%/Spanish housing crisis continues in full blast/China announces huge stimulation to jumpstart its economy/Merkel visits Greece with the usual protests/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed the comex session down $10.50 to finish at $1763.00.  Silver on the other hand, did not play into the hands of our bankers as it fell by only 5 cents to finish at $33.95 even though it was down to $33.00 flat during the session when a raid was orchestrated by the crooked bankers.  The bankers were trying to follow through on yesterday's trashing but

Please Donate
Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.

I'm PayPal Verified

NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BLS

Since the release of the most recent BLS Employment Situation Report, which showed an astounding drop in the unemployment rate, we have spent a good bit of time dissecting the release and discussing why the real unemployment rate is really between 17% and 22% depending on how you calculate it.  (See Here and Here)  However, today's release of the September NFIB Small Business Survey shows the extent to which the current BLS employment calculation method may have detached from reality. No matter how you look at the data there is a clear disconnect between the BLS report and economic realities.  From the NFIB's point view it is "economic uncertainty" that weighs on business owners and keeps them on the defensive.  The actions by the Federal Reserve to buy bonds and inject liquidity into the financial system does not solve the problem of "poor sales", reduce regulations that strangle growth or solve the "fiscal cliff" issues that threaten business profitability by the end of the year. 

Tuesday Humor: A Badly Lip Read Presidential Debate

You saw the original, then you saw the mock version, now from BadLipReading, comes the.... well... farce of the original farce? Considering that Big Bird is now the marginal figure in "the most important presidential election ever" it is only fitting that the entire presidential election process is nothing but one big joke.

Global Growth Reality Hits As Cummins Cuts Guidance And 1500 Jobs

CMI is down over 7% after-hours as it seems the 16% cut in Aluminum demand that Alcoa just announced can no longer be ignored. Reality is that Cummins is slashing guidance and cutting jobs in "response to the weakening global economy."
  • *CUMMINS SEES YEAR EBIT ABOUT 13.5%, SAW 14.25%-14.75%  :CMI US
  • *CUMMINS PRELIM 3Q REV. ABOUT $4.1B, EST. $4.425B       :CMI US
  • *CUMMINS SEES 2012 REV. $17B, SAW $18B, EST. $18.11B    :CMI US
"We continued to see weak economic data in a number of regions during the third quarter increasing the level of uncertainty regarding the direction of the global economy.... Demand in China has weakened in most end markets"
Two words - Priced In?

Woods & Murphy Refute 11 Myths About The Fed

The other day the Huffington Post ran an article by a Bonnie Kavoussi called “11 Lies About the Federal Reserve.” And you’ll never guess: these aren’t lies or myths spread in the financial press by Fed apologists. These are “lies” being told by you and me, opponents of the Fed. Bonnie Kavoussi calls us “Fed-haters.” So she, a Fed-lover, is at pains to correct these alleged misconceptions. She must stop us stupid ingrates from poisoning our countrymen’s minds against this benevolent array of experts innocently pursuing economic stability. Here are the 11 so-called lies (she calls them “myths” in the actual rendering), and Tom Woods and Bob Murphy's responses.

Alcoa Launches Earnings Season With A Whimper

You've heard the CEO's oracular outlook; you've read the press-release; you've seen Maria Bartiromo flush and the algos stymied in after-hours trading. Now here are the facts: Free Cash Flow: Q3 -$39MM; Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 $282mm, down 45% from Q2; Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 2011: $821 MM; Q2 2012: $ 517 MM; Q3 2013: $282 MM; Adjusted EBITDA Margin Changes: Q1 2012: 12.8%;  Q2 2012: 8.7%; Q3 2012 4.8%. Total debt: $9,524; Net debt: $8,092; LTM EBITDA $1,875 million; Total Leverage: 5.1x; Net Leverage: 4.3x
and here is the correlation...

Oil Surge, Stocks Purge, AAPL Bulls Regurge

UPDATE: AA earnings beat, missed, won, lost, with forecasts up and down... facts below!
From the close after the Fed's QEternity announcement, it may surprise some that the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and Dow Transports are all down 4%. S&P futures have retraced all of last week's gains, dropping the most in over week amid significant volume. AAPL dumped to its 100DMA, bounced, failed to break yesterday's VWAP close, then tumbled back to today's VWAP for another down day. VIX popped the most in 2 weeks (up over 1.2 vols) to end at 16.2%. From the 9/14 peak in stocks, only Healthcare is in the green, with Energy/Tech/Materials down around 5%. Oil jumped higher (up 3% on the week) in the face of USD strength that weighed a little on the rest of the commodity sector.

David Rosenberg: "Does The Fed Matter?"

Nothing materially new here from David Rosenberg's latest letter, but it is useful to keep being reminded over and over how central planning has totally destroyed the primary function of capital markets: discounting, and replaced it with a dumb terminal which only responds to red flashing headlines reporting of neverending liquidity. "If the Fed really had its way, the economy would be booming. But it is sputtering. For all the talk of one month's employment report — look at the entire quarter for crying out loud. Looking at total labour input, aggregate hours worked, it eked out a tepid 0.8% annualized gain in Q3....That the stock market is up 16% this year (on track for the best year since 2009) with earnings contracting underscores the major success of Fed policy in 2012 — managing to deflect investor attention away from negative profit trends and towards its pregnant balance sheet. So welcome to the new normal: the Fed has managed to negotiate a divorce between the economy and equity market behaviour.

Buffett's Favorite Bank, Wells Fargo, Sued By US

Couldn't happen to a nicer crony capitalist's favorite stock:
Well, Charlie: "Suck it in" (even more than just the recent epic collapse of BYD of course). As for Wells, sorry Warren, but just like gold, you can't really fondle that stock certificate, held by DTCC in proxy, either.

Why Oil's Post-QE Plunge May Be Over

A few days after the Fed launched QEternity we posted a roadmap for the post-QE track that Oil prices have mysteriously followed. We are now T+20 days from QEternity which corresponds to the post-QE trough based on the average of QE1 and QE2. What is fascinating about the following chart is just how closely the price of WTI crude has tracked the average path post-QE that we laid out three weeks ago. Is this the short-term lows? Who knows, but it seems that the divergence between WTI and Brent is narrowing with WTI playing catch up...

The Unstimulus

If your predictions are wildly out-of-whack with reality, you need to change your approach. Jared Bernstein and Christy Romer Administration predictions have been an unmitigated disaster. Not only did the real figures not match up to the advertised ones, but they are also much worse than the baseline expectations. Romer and Bernstein appear to have both severely under-estimated the depth of the crisis, and over-estimated the effectiveness of the stimulus package. Obama might talk about spreading the wealth around, but the aggregate effect of the policies pursued during his administration have squarely benefited large corporations and the financial sector, and not the middle class or small business. Is reinflating financial bubbles and pumping up corporate profits Obama’s idea of recovery? The money isn’t trickling down, and small businesses and the middle class are more in debt than they were before the crisis started.

Must See!!! - Understanding America - From Revolution, Today's Economic Collapse and After


You decide...

What Exactly Does “To Infinity” Mean?

My Dear Friends,
QE to infinity is Skier number three. Few have focused on what “to infinity” really means. It is best stated as Debt Monetization, public and private, with no end. To assume that means nothing is total non sense.
Today the organized take down on the gold price is a pure raid at 18 days of holding the $1775-$1800 level. It is an operation of opportunity. It is pre-election politically involved.
Gold is going to $3500 and there is no question about it.
Skier #1 is absolutely correct.
Skier #2 is absolutely correct.
Skier #3 has been proven to be absolutely correct, and will without any doubt deliver you gold at $3500 and above.

Stop quoting Gold every two minutes. Retreat to the hole you have used on every bear operation since $248. Read JSMineset and know I will tell you when to come out.

IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump
By Sandrine Rastello – Oct 9, 2012 6:45 AM ET

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts as the euro area’s debt crisis intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless officials in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies.

The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, with a one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent.

“A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report. “The answer depends on whether European and U.S. policy makers deal proactively with their major short-term economic challenges.”

The IMF’s 188 member countries convene in Tokyo this week as low growth damped by fiscal consolidation in the richest economies hurts developing counterparts from China to Brazil. As the IMF urged measures to boost confidence, uncertainties out of Europe show no sign of abating, with leaders still divided over a banking union and Spain resisting a bailout.

Confidence Fragile

“Confidence in the global financial system remains exceptionally fragile,” the IMF said. “Bank lending has remained sluggish across advanced economies” and increased risk aversion has damped capital flows to emerging markets, it said.

European stocks were little changed as the region’s finance ministers met in Luxembourg to discuss the sovereign-debt crisis. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent at 11:02 a.m. in London.

In Seoul, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim told a forum today that he saw mildly encouraging signs in Europe. In Tokyo, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard indicated that yields on Spanish and Italian bonds, which decreased after the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan announcement, could rise if the countries don’t request bailouts.


Printing Money – Price of Gold – Preservation of Wealth

My Dear Friends,

Egon has written a great piece here. I love the bullet points of an argument. It is so much better than a 5000 word tome.
Keep in mind when reading this that I have given you the definition of End Game. The End Game is "the negative impact on the US dollar’s international price as a product of the Fed’s balance sheet now made up of a large percentage of the bank’s junk paper and growing every day thanks to QE to infinity."
This present manufactured reaction in gold, made up of a determined 18 days of manipulative blocking actions, will be seen in the future as a pimple on an elephant’s ass.

Printing Money – Price of Gold – Preservation of Wealth October 9th, 2012 by admin golds
by Egon von Greyerz – October 2012

1. Worldwide money printing continues unabated

2. Just In 10 years $120 trillion have been printed making global debt $200 trillion

3. World GDP has gone from $32 trillion to $70 trillion 2001-2011

4. Thus $120 trillion debt is required to produce a $38 trillion annual increase in GDP

5. The marginal return on printed money is negative in real terms

6. Thus the world is living on an illusion of paper that people believe is money

7. This illusionary paper wealth will implode in the next few years

8. The initial trigger will be the collapse of the world’s reserve currency – the US dollar

9. The dollar is backed by $120 trillion of US government debt and probably NO gold

10. All currencies will continue their race to the bottom and lose 100% in real terms against gold

11. This will create a worldwide hyperinflationary depression

12. All assets financed by the credit bubble will go down in real terms

13. This includes stocks, bonds, property and paper money of course

14. The financial system is unlikely to survive in its present form

15. The banking system including derivatives has total liabilities of around $1.2 quadrillion

16. With world GDP of $70 trillion, the world is too small to save a financial system which is 17x greater

17. This is why there will be unlimited money printing and hyperinflation

18. The only asset that will maintain its purchasing power is gold Click here for chart

19. Gold has been money for 5,000 years and will continue to be the only currency with integrity

20. Western countries’ 23,000 tons of gold is probably gone. See recent article by Eric Sprott.

21. The consequence is that most of the gold in the banking system is likely to be encumbered

22. This means that Central Banks one day will claim it back against worthless paper gold IOUs

23. Thus gold and all other assets within the banking system involve an unacceptable counterparty risk

24. Gold should be held in physical form and stored outside the banking system


In The News Today

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is your guide to actions and reactions.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

On the left you have the high frequency trading firms. On the right you have the public.


Leeb says central banks make gold’s case; Sinclair tells bugs to chill
Submitted by cpowell on 10:53AM ET Tuesday, October 9, 2012. Section: Daily Dispatches
1:50p Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed by King World News, fund manager Stephen Leeb says all the major central banks are making the case for investing in gold:
And responding to today’s dip in the gold price, hand-holder in chief Jim Sinclair tells gold bugs: “Stop quoting gold every two minutes. Retreat to the hole you have used on every bear operation since $248. ReadJSMineset.com and know I will tell you when to come out.”
He hasn’t been wrong yet. His commentary is headlined “What Exactly Does ‘To Infinity’ Mean?” and it’s posted here:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Rolling Stone wrote a great headline.
Presidential Debate Aftermath: Mitt Romney Wins All-Important BS Contest

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

In Africa a US $100 is discounted 15% if they even take it. The best wallpaper manufacturers of currency are other governments that do not love the USA.

Counterfeit Bills, Found In Two Chase ATMs In Manhattan, Total $110,000 In Fake Money
Posted: 10/09/2012 9:53 am EDT Updated: 10/09/2012 9:53 am EDT
Nearly $110,000 in counterfeit bills were discovered at two Chase ATM’s in Midtown on Monday.
According to police, the forged bills were detected at the bank’s branches on West 57th Street and on Ninth Avenue by an alarm monitoring for counterfeit money. They were also easily distinguishable as fake because they only had printing on one side of the bills.
The New York Times reports a 26-year-old employee at NCR Corporation, an electronics company that works with ATMs, is suspected to have stolen the real cash. He is believed to be in the Dominican Republic.
Two customers also alerted bank officials after attempting to take out cash and recognizing the counterfeit bills.
A statement from JP Morgan Chase said, “We are working to get all the facts and don’t want to come to any conclusions too early. Obviously, all of our customers who withdrew money will be made whole.”

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You know if there is a devil it has to be the top banksters.
This is simply too evil to believe. Bless those men and women who follow their orders placing their lives in harm’s way. They are no different than you and I, and have to have doubts, yet they follow their orders. Meanwhile the Banksters throw them out of their house.
There is no mercy! These banksters are damned, whether or not they know it.
Not giving a damn is not going to protect them from being damned in this and the afterlife. I know these guys, and believe me, you would not want their lives. Kids and wife are decorations, and nothing to be to overly concerned with. Friends are determined by what profit they can get for the time they spend with that so called friend. I know what disasters these people are because once I called them friends, and partners.

Morgan Stanley Unit Probed by U.S. on Military Foreclosures
By Tom Schoenberg and Joel Rosenblatt – Mar 12, 2011 4:13 PM MT
A unit of Morgan Stanley (MS), the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, and other lenders are being investigated by the Justice Department for overcharging members of the military and foreclosing on their homes without court orders.
“The Civil Rights Division has an ongoing investigation into Saxon mortgage and other lenders as well as authorized lawsuits against lenders for violations of the Service members Civil Relief Act, specifically for overcharging and foreclosing against the homes of Service members without court orders,” Xochitl Hinojosa, a department spokeswoman, said today in an e- mailed statement.
The investigation was revealed in a court document filed this week in a lawsuit brought in federal court in Grand Rapids, Michigan, by U.S. Army Sergeant James Hurley. He served in Operation Iraqi Freedom starting in 2004, and lost his home through an eviction proceeding in 2005 while he was still in Iraq.
The Morgan Stanley unit, Saxon Mortgage Services Inc., and a unit of Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) were responding in court papers to an effort by Hurley’s lawyers to subpoena Saxon’s general counsel to learn more about a Justice Department probe.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The euro and gold seem to be holding hands.



Jim’s Mailbox

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is a letter to a son.

Dear Son,
When you are piloting a twin engine helicopter into a landing site at 12,000" AGL with a service ceiling at 11,500" AGL to pick up a diamond mine’s weekly production has to be joy of all joys for you.
When my pontoons on the Dehavalind Beaver touched the water on a placid lake in the Maine wilderness under Mt. Katagin, my heart would sign.
When I flew into Moose Head Lake with two feet white caps successfully, I was twice as happy.
When I fell out of the air 6 times, and did the necessary to regain flight, I was totally ecstatic
Your children are precious. Pleasure in life takes many different forms. All our futures have their foundation in gold.
Be happy!

Hi Jim,
I must confess that the $1775 line in the sand had baffled me a bit as I did not have that level on my radar. But it did make me go back and re-evaluate my work to see what I missed. Turns out the answer has been right in front of us for years.
Every level of resistance in gold going back to when it was priced at $200 is harmonically linked to the price of $1775 and of course beyond. It should come as no surprise that the next level of resistance will be found just below $2000.

Gold is just following along its universal harmonic. Now whether the "powers to be" are aware of this and take advantage or if they are just pawns of the universe I do not know. Everyone should calm down and rest easy and let nature run its course, which it most surely will when it explodes through this line just as it has done each time previously.
Hey did I read that picture right? Do you have an amphibious car? Surely at least one of your furry pals must like to motor on the water with you…

Dear Mr. Sinclair,
I follow your blog every day, having been turned on to JSMineset by a dear friend and neighbor.  While I am by no stretch of the imagination a trader, economist, nor do I profess to understand much about the commodities or stock market, or anything else on those financial news channels that my crazy father in law watches in closed caption all day long, I like to believe I am smart enough to see the writing on the wall.  I am a big believer in "duck and cover" in these interesting times.
What advice do you give an educated professional, married father of three little kids and two loving Labrador Retrievers, who carries with him the middle-class burden of a mortgage, car payments, and obscene New York state taxes who by now has little to no faith in the banking system, the pieces of green paper in my wallet (dwindling by the day in an Economy of Obama) and someone who believes that physical precious metal is infinitely more secure than paper shares?  When I retreat into my hole, do I continue to trade monopoly money for metal or just "duck and cover?"
CIGA Patrick

Dear Patrick,
I would seek a lower cost location in the USA where employment for you is available. Having accomplished that, I would rent my home.
Renting with an option to buy is nice. I would conserve where it did not change my wife’s lifestyle.
Basically change before circumstances force you to change, and then you are in control.

Hi Jim,
Sound advice you give the clueless gold longs to turn off the machine. But now that some are no longer with us, the gold bull can resume. Encouraging that it’s been 9 days that the gap at GLD 169.79 has not been filled. Also encouraged that GDX correction has been fairly minuscule as compared to history. But still may need 2 more weeks of corrective action.
CIGA Bernie

I agree on your timing. It is so crazy.
Thank God our community is not a tank group. The only gear they have is reverse.

Dear Jim,
If it’s a ‘bailout which ship is being ‘bailed’ to stay afloat?

Dear Anon,
All the experts who expect Germany to dump the euro are as deep intellectually as a plastic warm kiddy pool.
You hit the bulls eye, but then you usually do.
Germany for German’s sake will help in providing every dollar required. In front of them is the US Fed who will do the same.
Gold lower and staying lower is total madness. Gold is going to $3500 and beyond.

If all else fails there’s a place for you in stand up.
But where do I go?

Dear Jim,

Here is a report from GATA!
CIGA Arlen

No, it cannot. I can guarantee when the right thing is done or what you now have explodes that what is replaced will last for many decades. There is no practical fix to this mess making gold’s decline a form of a joke.

Steve Forbes: Gold can save us from disaster Submitted by cpowell on 01:31PM ET Tuesday, October 9, 2012. Section: Daily Dispatches
4:27p ET Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In commentary published in the new edition of Forbes magazine, editor and publisher Steve Forbes endorses both a gold standard and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul’s proposed legislation to facilitate competition in currencies. In support of the latter, Forbes cites the prosecution of Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von Not Haus. Forbes’ commentary is headlined "Gold Can Save Us from Disaster" and it’s posted at the Forbes Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Here is a story that the vast majority of Americans (who would even read it) will simply not grasp.
Deposits in Norwegian Krone or Swiss Francs mean nothing to people who have been brainwashed for years by the MSM MOPE about the almighty dollar.
How long before US Regulators withdrawal limits, floating Nav’s and other restrictions on money market funds? Capital Controls are coming, negative interest rates on deposits are coming, and the sheeple slumber on.
Only the truly ignorant and uninformed believe it couldn’t happen here.
Thanks for all you do to educate us.

Depositors Fleeing Euro Get Negative Rates at State Street By Bradley Keoun – Oct 9, 2012 2:23 PM MT
State Street Corp. (STT) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., two of the world’s biggest custody banks, will charge depositors to hold Danish kroner and Swiss francs as customers seek refuge from the crisis-stricken euro.
State Street will apply a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent annually to krone deposits starting Nov. 1, with a separate charge for francs, according to a note to clients last week. That means money managers, insurance companies and pension funds must pay the bank to hold their cash. BNY Mellon started charging for krone deposits last month, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The lender isn’t charging for francs.

Please Donate
Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.

I'm PayPal Verified

No comments:

Post a Comment