Curious
how many feet of water the rats in downtown NYC are under right now?
The real-time answer is available after the jump below, courtesy of the
NOAA and this tide height tracker at New York's Battery.Financial District Goes Dark As Con Ed Cuts Power To Lower Manhattan
As we warned earlier - due to the flooding from the storm surge - ConEd has cut power to parts of lower Manhattan:
- *CON EDISON CUT POWER TO PARTS OF LOWER MANHATTAN, SPOKESMAN SAY
- *CON EDISON CUT POWER EAST OF BROADWAY, SOUTH OF WALL ST TO TIP
- *POWER CUT BETWEEN WALL, FRANKFORT, WILLIAMS & EAST RIVER :ED US
- *CON EDISON CUT POWER TO PROTECT LINES FROM HURRICANE FLOODING
'Dark Pools' comes to mind as the financial district is blacked out.
New York City Peak Threat Hours: 7-10 PM When The Flooding Begins
As meteorologists have been repeating all day, the biggest threat for NYC is not so much the rain, or even the wind, dangling cranes hundreds of feet above ground notwithstanding, but the storm surge. The threat here is that Hurricane Sandy will hit land just as the tide comes in, resulting in a double whammy which Wunderground has called a "gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping." Add to this the impact of the full moon, which means that high tide will be 5% higher than average for the month, and Wunderground's conclusion is inevitable: "This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew." How high are we talking: Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level... According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood." Luckily for all, the NY Fed's tungsten gold, which is 50 feet below sea level (and 80 feet below the surface) and is in the Zone C flood evacuation area, will be perfectly "safe." And after all tungsten gold will never just float away.
Hurricane 1: Construction Crane 0
Nature
came, saw, and showed the city that never sleeps and those for whom
money is no object in exchange for a penthouse apartment in the very
same building, what a true "master of the universe" is. The actual
crane collapse clip below...S&P Futures Resume Trading Under 1400
While
hardly the biggest priority for NYC at this time, where rats in
downtown New York of all varieties are doing their best to scramble
away from the flood and get to higher territory, futures have just
resumed trading for the overnight session, only to close before the
average retail investor can buy or sell tomorrow at 9:15 am. The first
trades indicate a resumption of this morning's weakness, but keep the
1400 support area in mind: if solidly taken out this may be Waterloo
for the Fed for this year. And while normally we would expect the
futures to get a NY Fed-assisted ramp that would make the TSX last
second surge seems like a joke, the just released news from AAPL could
well shake the bulls out of their trance, and finally force the world's
biggest hedge fund hotel (230 hedge funds long) to puke and take the
entire market with it. As we post, S&P 500 futures are sliding to 1397.5 (down over 10 points) - in line with where we noted they would trade at today's 'pretend' market close.Why Energy May Be Abundant But Not Cheap
It
doesn’t matter how abundant liquid fossil fuels might be; it’s their
cost that impacts the economy. Many people think “peak oil” is about the
world is “running out of oil." Actually, “peak oil” is about the world running out of cheap, easy-to-get oil.
That means fossil fuels might be abundant (supply exceeds demand) for a
time but still remain expensive. We are trained to expect that
anything that is abundant will be cheap, but energy is a special case:
it can be abundant but costly, because it’s become costly to produce. EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) helps illuminate this point.Silver Clinging to Support Above $31.50 - Needs Catalyst
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 5 hours ago
With market conditions extremely thin today on account of that monster
storm churning up along the Eastern seaboard, it is tricky trying to read
too much into one day's price action. That being said, it does seem that
traders are leery of putting on too large of a position one week out from a
critical election.
I know that the silver bulls are making a big deal out of the apparent lack
of liquidation from the speculative side of the market; however, this is in
truth a double-edged sword. I would have preferred to see a more sizeable
flush with the market holding above critical suppo... more »
Apple's Heads Of Retail, iOS Leaving Firm
If
Apple needed the best possible cover to announce that both mini-Steve
Jobs and its head of retail strategy are leaving the firm, it got it
courtesy of Frankenstorm and a market that will be closed for at least
another 24 hours. We are looking forward to the analyst spin on this. As
the head of the firm's iOS development (Scott Forstall) and the head
of the firm's retail division (John Browett - a 5-month veteran!) have
left the firm. Full bullish statement on the bright future of the
company below but one can't help but feel like the guy
responsible for the Maps fiasco just got thrown under the bus; and if
the stores are doing so well, why is the head of retail out on his ear? Apple was already trading down around 0.65% in European trading this morning pre-announcement- this surely cannot help.Meanwhile In Canada...
Presented with no comment... because what is there to say really!!!Where Would Stocks Be Closing If They Were Open?
With
equity cash and futures markets closed, we thought it useful to gauge
where equities might have closed if they were trading. As so many need
month-end marks for reporting and OPEX-based hedgers are likely
anxious, we thought getting some perspective from what the machines are
seeing would be useful. With Kevin Henry gone gray as Treasuries
closed, risk-assets slipped modestly on the day - with a late day push
to the lows on the back of Merkel's 'nein' on euro-bonds. To wit, based on the dependence with FX and commodity markets, S&P 500 futures would be trading under the critical 1400 level. - and based on the Toronto Stock Exchange, S&P 500 cash would be trading around 1404 (down around 8pts on the day). S&P futures are set to re-open at 1700ET 1800ET (and based on CME's site will close again at 0915ET tomorrow).How Central Bank Policy Impacts Asset Prices Part 4: Commodities
Through
a wider looking glass, apart from Gold, commodity prices remain mostly
driven by economic cycles rather than central bank actions. The
correlation of Gold with Central Bank balance sheets remains the
dominant theme as it grows in substance as a true global currency and a hedge against money debauchment.
Since September’s coordinated easing from central banks, commodities
have turned in mixed performances (-5% for oil, -3% for metals). The direct
impact of monetary policy on industrial commodity prices appears very
limited today (contrary to the situation during QE2 period), given the bleak global economic outlook and the absence of aggressive easing from China.NYC's Luxuriest Building Is First Sandy Casualty: Live Webcast Of Crane Dangling On 75th Floor
UPDATE: New York City officials order evacuation of upper floors of several buildings near site of partially collapsed crane.
While we are still hours away from "Peak Storm", the structural casualties are already adding up. FDNY reports a 2nd alarm alert at the soon-to-be tallest residential building in Manhattan - 157 West 57th Street (aka One57, where recently a record price was paid for a duplex apartment) entailing a dangling crane. The area is being evacuated - to somewhere we assume that does not have cranes (good luck finding that). The critical question for Steve Liesman remains - how much more is a 'broken crane' worth to GDP than a 'broken window'? Live stream embedded below...
How Central Bank Policy Impacts Asset Prices Part 3: FX
The
actions of the world's central banks, from driving rates to the limit
or beyond ZIRP into the unconventional moeny-printing (or more
acquiescent QE), there is little doubt that the currency wars are under way.
As SocGen notes, the spillovers from advanced economies' actions
(exporting inflation) into EM currency appreciation create subsequent
needs for EM bank actions at times when inflationary concerns remain
high. With the Yuan at 19 year highs and suffering from outflows, the
potential for QE-based inflows this time could be welcome by the CCP.Con Ed Expects 'Record' Outages As Tides Threaten Shut Down In Lower Manhattan
Con
Ed's SVP John Miksad just hosted a call with some relatively ominous
comments. As they expect record outages from wind and rain damage, it
is the tides and the flooding that is of most concern as the executive
noted that they may cut power to Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan if tides
reach forecast ranges:*CON ED EXPECTING `RECORD' OUTAGES FROM WIND, RAIN DAMAGE :ED US
*CON ED MAY SHUT DOWN LOWER MANHATTAN SYSTEM DUE TO HIGH TIDES
*CON ED: `NOT OKAY' IF TIDES REACH FORECAST 10-12 FOOT LEVEL
*CON ED: 6,500 NYC BUILDINGS, 2800 BROOKLYN CUSTOMERS AFFECTED
Flood surge map and power outage links below...
Citi On The Retail Sales Impact Of Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy will negatively impact traffic and retail sales in the retail calendar’s November Week 1. Week 1 is historically ~22.4% of Nov’s sales and Citi's Retail analysts estimate traffic could be down ~40% for the week in negatively impacted areas. They calculate that Sandy could negatively impact November monthly comps by 2-3% based on 22% (Wk 1 mix of month) * -40% (Citi traffic/comp headwind assumption) * 24% mix (average mix of stores impacted). A negative impact of 2-3% in November would yield a negative quarterly impact of ~1-2%.
How Central Bank Policy Impacts Asset Prices Part 2: Bonds
The
Fed sees the need to reduce interest rates as it takes over the US
Treasury and MBS markets; but the ECB's actions are more aimed at
reducing divergences between peripheral nations and the core. As SocGen
notes, it remains unclear how and when the Fed would exit this situation and in Europe, bond market volatility remains notably elevated relative to the US and Japan as policy action absent a political, fiscal, and banking union remains considerably less potent.The Spanish Bad Bank Emerges, Confirms Spanish Real Estate Absolute Disaster
The details of the Spanish bad bank are being released and it is ugly - far uglier than many had expected. And while the Spanish government expects priovate interest to take some of this massively discounted 'crap' off their hands, we have three words: 'deleveraging' and 'no bid!'.- *RESTOY SAYS BAD BANK AIMS TO BE PROFITABLE
- *SPAIN BAD BANK TO DISCOUNT LOANS AVG 46%; FORECLOSED ASSETS 63%
- *SPAIN AIMS FOR BAD BANK NOT TO COUNT TOWARDS PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
- *SPAIN TO DISCUSS BAD BANK WITH INVESTORS IN COMING DAYS
- *SPAIN BAD BANK TO INCLUDE FORECLOSED ASSETS, LOANS, STAKES
Thank You Shaun
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Jim,
I have followed you since your newsletter in the 1970s. I am puzzled by your response to Bill where you talk about the dire results of stopping the fiat money printing.
Since the results of stopping are bad you are implying that continuing the fiat until ultimate failure with runaway inflation is better.
Is that what you mean to say?
Thanks for all you do for us,
CIGA Jim
Dear CIGA Jim
My job is to tell it like it is.
The economy is a drug addict. The creation of money is history making in a modern economy and money creation acts exactly like a drug. Like a drug the more you take, the more you need. The more money you create, the more money you must continue to create until it goes to infinity. You go cold turkey on money creation, you unleash the economic wrath of hell in the entire Western world. It all comes down in one great implosion.
Russia and China would act immediately economically to take full and powerful advantage of your error in application. You have to wean a drug addict off the drug in order to not kill him in recovery.
We need a new monetary system complete with a strategic plan of transitions from here and now to there. There is no politician out there that will do this no matter what is promised before the election. That will not change in November.
I was short listed in the Nixon Administration for Secretary of the US Treasury. A major article in the New York Times listed me as someone in consideration. I have a plaque from my membership on the Senatorial Economic Advisory Board. If I was in office, I would have done everything to prevent this, regardless of the cost personally
If I was made Chairman of the Federal Reserve in January 2013, I would wean the system slowly down while working to recreate the monetary system with required total gold value for government treasuries tied to a world index of total Western World M3. That is a simplification, but it would be the heart of my plan.
Jim, I know this stuff. I am not retreating from conservative principles. I just know that the mishandling of any situation due to dogmatic beliefs can set off a nuclear explosion. I would walk the Western World Financial System back to sobriety, not try to blast it back which would fail miserably.
I could do it.
Respectfully,
Jim
NYSE, Nasdaq to close
New York Stock Exchange located on Wall Street in a flood zone UPDATED 6:22 AM EDT Oct 29, 2012
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — U.S. stock exchanges will be closed Monday as Hurricane Sandy bears down on New York.
The New York Stock Exchange said in a statement late Sunday that it will close its markets Monday. Markets are likely to remain closed on Tuesday as well.
The Nasdaq stock market, which trades many technology stocks including Google and Microsoft, will also be closed Monday. The exchange will later announce plans for Tuesday.
"Dangerous conditions developing as a result of Hurricane Sandy will make it extremely difficult to ensure the safety of our people and communities, and safety must be our first priority," the NYSE said in a statement.
New York has declared a state of emergency and the city suspended subway service, bus and commuter rail service starting at 7 p.m. ET Sunday. (Look ahead to stocks: Key jobs report)
The NYSE originally planned on staying open for electronic trading, while closing its trading floor, but later said all operations would close after consultations with regulators and other exchanges.
CME Group’s Nymex trading floor in New York, which trades oil futures, will be closed because it is headquartered in New York City’s mandatory evacuation zone.
NYSE rarely shuts down for weather-related emergencies: Hurricane Gloria in 1985, and a snowstorm in 1969 were the last major weather events to bring the exchange to a halt.
Some companies with offices in the flood zone in lower Manhattan, like American Express, have closed their New York offices on Monday.
Goldman Sachs will be open for business Monday, though most of its New York employees will work from home due to its offices’ proximity to the evacuation zone and transit suspensions, according to a memo to staff obtained by CNNMoney and confirmed by a spokesman.
The firm will rely on its teams in London and around the world for support. The memo said that employees "deemed critical to the operation of the firm," however, will be asked to go into its lower Manhattan offices Monday, but stressed that safety remains a top priority.
Pfizer, which had been scheduled to issue its quarterly financial report on Tuesday, said that it would reschedule for Thursday morning. Meanwhile, power companies Entergy and NRG Energy said they were delaying their third-quarter conference calls because of the storm.
More…
Sobering Up The Western World Economy Demands Price Management
CIGA Eric
Morning Observations of the Gold, ABwave) Transition: Eric De Groot
A-wave rallies which includes the AB transition (A-wave to B-wave transition) is characterized by fear and doubt.
The secular gold trend follows the following cycle: A(up), B(consolidation), C(UP), and D (DOWN). Investors, however, disappointed that D(DOWN) is not followed by C(UP) assumed A(up) will be followed by D(DOWN).
AB transitions contain at least two, most often three, delaying "hooks" (chart 1, 2, 3). These hooks represent paper supply designed to slow forward momentum at critical resistance. As easy as shooting fish in a barrel, high levels of fear and doubt interprets slowing forward momentum into gold’s worst case scenario.
AB transitions represent transfer of control from weak to strong hands of the invisible hand. Control is not maintained those motivated by emotions.
The first count or hook is near completion. Growing distrust of gold within the community as price deteriorates is consistent with AB transition (email).
Do not expect spec traders or the gold community to be the majority controlling interest at the B-wave bottom.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
So says CIGA Richard. You will see the opposite in the morning US as a sign of full valuation coming, but a long way off.
Dear CIGAs,
This is NOT a ‘surprise’ exactly.
The Three Stooges had a gag where they would distract the straight-man from observing whatever by yelling and pointing in the opposite direction "Hey! Look at the grouse!" It worked for them every time.
With all eyes focused on Hurricane Sandy, and the NY exchange floors closed, volume is extremely ‘light’ as you’d reasonably expect. But, in the finest "Chicago way" the CME via it’s Globex saw this in terms of "never let a good crisis go to waste" and took the opportunity to paper "hammer" (or bludgeon, if you prefer) the precious metals this morning.
Yawn. It just never gets old does it? Guess I’ll later have my favorite Scotch (suggested to me by the general years ago) "Famous Grouse" and ignore these Chicago stooges.
CIGA Richard S
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