Thursday, October 25, 2012

David Einhorn Explains How The Bernank Is Destroying America



"We have just spent 15 years learning that a policy of creating asset bubbles is a bad idea, so it is hard to imagine why the Fed wants to create another one. But perhaps the more basic question is: How fruitful is the wealth effect? Is the additional spending that these volatile paper profits are intended to induce overwhelmed by the lost consumption of the many savers who are deprived of steady, recurring interest income? We have asked several well-known economists who publicly support the Fed’s policy and found that they don’t have good answers. If Chairman Bernanke is setting distant and hard-to-achieve benchmarks for when he would reverse course, it is possibly because he understands that it may never come to that. Sooner or later, we will enter another recession. It could come from normal cyclicality, or it could come from an exogenous shock. Either way, when it comes, it is very likely we will enter it prior to the Fed having ‘normalized’ monetary policy, and we’ll have a large fiscal deficit to boot. What tools will the Fed and the Congress have at that point? If the Fed is willing to deploy this new set of desperate measures in these frustrating, but non-desperate times, what will it do then? We don’t know, but a large allocation to gold still seems like a very good idea."


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Overnight Market: Futures Breaking Below Draghi-Believe Lows

S&P futures are being crushed overnight. Currently trading below the levels of September 5th Draghi comments (back under 1400) and -11pts from the close. AUD is weak, Treasuries are modestly bid (as is the USD) and commodities are rolling over. The catalyst? We see four things: 1) Delayed reaction to global supply chain implications of an AAPL outlook cut (and/or overseas holders hedging) as well as some missed earnings in China; 2) Major Aussie quasi-bank Banksia (yes, its really called that!) hitting the skids (a la Northern Rock) bringing fear that Australia is entering 2008-mode USA; 3) a NYT article which could be inferred as a direct attack on the Chinese political faction (exposing Wen Jiabao's hidden billions); and/or 4) a realization that at 14-plus x P/E multiples, the US equity markets are not pricing in anything the kind of possible pain a fiscal cliff scenario (or Romney-ite in the Fed) might bring. Of course, the need for a narrative is irrelevant, the most net long position since 2008 is unwinding (for now) but by the time we wake for New York's morning, things could have reversed once again.


The Dark Age Of Money...

If you often wonder why ‘free market capitalism’ feels like it is failing despite universal assurances from economists and political pundits that it is working as intended, your intuition is correct. Free market capitalism has become a thing of the past. In truth free market capitalism has been replaced by something that is truly anti-free market and anti-capitalistic. The diversion operates in plain sight. Beginning sometime around 1970 the U.S. and most of the ‘free world’ have diverged from traditional “free market capitalism” to something different. Today the U.S. and much of the world’s economies are operating under what I call Monetary Fascism: a system where financial interests control the State for the advancement of the financial class. This is markedly different from traditional Fascism: a system where State and industry work together for the advancement of the State. Monetary Fascism was created and propagated through the Chicago School of Economics. Milton Friedman’s collective works constitute the foundation of Monetary Fascism. Today the financial and banking class enforces this ideology through the media and government with the same ruthlessness of the Church during the Dark Ages: to question is to be a heretic.   When asked in an interview what humanities’ future looked like, Eric Blair, better known as George Orwell, said “Imagine a boot smashing a human face forever.”


What America's CEOs Really Think In One Chart

Equity markets will ebb and flow (mostly flow it seems) at the whim of central planners; and employment statistics will me X-12'd into whatever cognitive bias is required for the status quo to be maintained; but one thing that is hard to hide (harder still with Bloomberg's help) is the reality of job cut announcements. Over the past few years, there is one pronounced reality that has occurred in front of any major fiscal or monetary stimulus-related event - a huge rise in North American job cuts. It would appear, given the data below, that CEOs are wise in the ways of just-in-time only fix it when its totally broken policy-making and have front-run every major event with huge layoffs. To wit, since the start of September, announced layoffs in North American firms have soared to levels not seen since the debt-ceiling-debacle of last year (all the while - claims and the unemployment rate continue to fall). Cautiously optimistic? not!


Presidential Election Preview 2: Where They Stand And Why It Matters


The 2012 US presidential election is perhaps one of the most unique and important elections in recent history from an economic perspective (with the time-line rapidly approaching). In choosing its leader for the next four years (for which we provide a handy 'where-do-they-stand' cheatsheet), we agree with Goldman that the country will likely be determining the path for near-term economic growth, medium-to-longer term fiscal stability and monetary policy at a time when the stakes are exceptionally high - whether or not the US economy returns to recessionary conditions in 2013, the US sovereign debt rating and the broader credibility of the US government to Americans and foreigners alike all hang in the balance. Goldman sees three factors that set the 2012 election apart.


Presidential Election Preview 3: Swing States And The Horserace

The 2012-2013 election season is exceptional, with more than 100 elections in economies accounting for approximately 60% of global GDP. So far, Goldman notes that markets have navigated through elections in Russia, Egypt, Greece, France, Mexico and Venezuela, among others. The closely watched Presidential election in the US will take place shortly, followed by the culmination of the political transition in China. Later on, markets will see countries like Italy, Iran, and Japan go to the ballots too. This extraordinary election season brings several questions to the forefront: Why are elections important market events? What are the main factors affecting that market-driving impact and its seasonality? And which states are key? Critically, Goldman finds that a divided government has on average produced considerably tighter fiscal policy - not a good sign for the Keynesians.


A Valuable, Valuable Clue As To What To Do

Richard Daughty, a.k.a., 'The Mogambo Guru' at Mogambo Guru Report! - 6 hours ago
October 25, 2012 Mogambo Guru Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Philip S. kindly forwarded an entertaining email to me, containing a lot of facts about, of all things, the year 1910. Now, I gotta tell ya, I can remember a lot of things, mostly as a result of living a lot of years and thus spending a lot of years finding out about a lot of stuff, but 1910 was not one of them. Accordingly, on the Mogambo Hierarchy Of Interest (MHOI), it always rated a big, fat zero since I have never heard anything about 1910 that I could use. For instance, maybe in 1910 there wa... more » 

 

More fallout from the German official gold storage facility/Santander profit falls 90%/Apple disappoints/Amazon disappoints/Expect a bloodbath tomorrow/

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen; Gold closed up today:]by $13.20 to $1712.30  Silver rebounded by 45 cents to $32.05. Today we had very little news from Europe and Asia to spark our attention.  Spain's largest bank Santander announced a drop in profits of 90% due to bad real estate losses and rumours are flying in Japan of another 10 trillion yen quantitative easing. Today we got far more important

 

Hurricane Sandy Track for the Next Five Days 


Fukushima Fish Still Glowing As Brightly In The Dark One Year Later


In the immortal words of Bruce-the-shark from Finding Nemo: "Fish are friends, not food"; but in Fukushima, they are neither! As Bloomberg reports, radiation levels of fish caught off the coast of Northern Japan are as high as they were a year ago with contamination levels particularly high among bottom-dwellers. There remains a fishing ban on these bottom-dwelling fish as 40% are still above the limit for human consumption. As one scientist noted, "This means that even if these sources were to be shut off completely, the sediments would remain contaminated for decades to come." So, today's lesson is, Fukushima fish are neither friends nor food, but more like lava lamps we suspect.


Guest Post: Japan’s Three Options In The East China Sea

Tensions between Japan and China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands are continuing, as indicated by continued obstacles to Japanese businesses in China, a drastic decline in tourism, and Chinese patrols near the islands.   This is both a Sino-Japanese issue and a part of a broader confrontation between China on one side and the United States and its allies on the other. Given Japan’s reliance on the U.S. security umbrella, Tokyo’s moves are to some extent constrained by American actions.  Nevertheless, Japan’s size and resources mean Tokyo retains considerable autonomy in handling its relationship with Beijing. At this point, Tokyo has three options... Taking a proactive course on China policy requires stable and high-quality leadership, something which is lacking in Tokyo.





Gentlemen, Start Your Deloreans

It seems engines are revving and it may be time to go forward to the past. Earlier this month, a large and well respected asset manager that has begun taking positions in gold expressions issued a report in which it began to justify gold’s relative value. One metric it used was comparing the quantity of currency in the world to the quantity of gold. The report concluded that using this metric, the relative value of gold would be about $2,500/ounce, a significant premium to its current spot price. The analysis posited gold’s value upon a return to the gold standard, posing the question: “what if the entire world’s gold were used to back the global supply of fiat currency?” We agree with the logic of dividing base money by gold holdings to find gold’s “intrinsic value” (as per Bretton Woods and our Shadow Gold Price), but we believe the reasonable value upon conversion to a gold standard would be many multiples higher than $2,500/ounce.


Apple Cash Balance Rises At Slowest Pace In 30 Months

For a company that recently had a $600 billion market cap, for which scale is everything, and for which every sentence begins with "if you exclude its cash, its multiple is" two things have to be consistent: it has to keep growing its cash, and said growth has to be proportional to the firm's scale. For Apple, in Q3 the first condition was satisfied... but just barely. Total cash and equivalents did rise from $117.2 billion to $121.3 billion, but the rate of sequential increase, which was only $4.1 billion, was the slowest increase in cash and equivalents since March 2010, when Apple's total cash load was a far more modest $41.7 billion, as was its market cap. While AAPL continues to be a growth juggernaut, in its pursuit to appease Wall Street with dividends and other gimmicks, is it starting to lose the big picture, which is and always has been about generating cash flow? And how long until the organic growth to cash generation is not even enough to cover the dividend outflow? What happens if and when AAPL actually has cash decline in one quarter? Finally, is it time for the infamous Braeburn Capital to show Simon Potter who truly is boss?



First Government Demand For Physical Gold


My Dear Friends,

Whatever real gold there is will supply this. This is the first demand for the real thing by a government while some governments are on the ropes.
Now someone should take delivery from the Crimex.
The old German story is interesting but what has occurred today is the real thing.
You should be interested in who is a part of the German organization significantly responsible for this.
Respectfully yours,
Jim


The Germans Are Coming for Their Gold Published: Wednesday, 24 Oct 2012 | 5:10 PM ET
John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com

A German federal court has said that country’s central bank should conduct annual audits and physically inspect its gold reserves worldwide, including gold in the custody of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In addition to the FRBNY, Bundesbank gold is stored in London, Paris and Frankfurt.
For decades, the Bundesbank has relied on written confirmation of its gold holdings in London, Paris and New York. According to the report from the German audit court, the last time Bundesbank officials physically inspected the central banks gold holdings was, well, never.
(It should be stated that the folks at FT Alphaville quote a report saying an inspection took place in 1979/1980.)
Interestingly enough, the Bundesbank is apparently quite happy with taking the word of other central bankers about the existence, location and size of its gold reserves. It put out the word that it disagrees with the Audit Court, which only has advisory power and cannot force the Bundesbank to follow its recommendations, about the need for inspections. Nonetheless, the Bundesbank is actually going to follow the recommendation that it verify the gold stocks. It also has plans to ship some 150 tons of gold back to Germany for a more “thorough examination.”
The Bundesbank is, of course, quite right in its opinion of the value of the examinations. In reality, it does not matter one bit whether the Federal Reserve Bank of New York actually has the German central bank’s gold or whether the gold is pure. As long as the Fed says it is there, it is as good as there for all practical purposes to which it might be put. It can be sold, leased out, used as collateral, employed to extinguish liabilities and counted as bank capital just the same whether it exists or not.
The actual presence of the gold wouldn’t make a lick of difference unless, say, Germany’s central bank decided it wanted to start using the gold for some practical, non-monetary purpose like making watches.
But there’s long been a paranoia about central bank and government gold reserves.
The gold of the United States government, which officials say is held in the United States Bullion Depository in Fort Knox, has been rumored—probably since the Depository’s founding in 1937—to have been looted and replaced with gold-painted tungsten, for instance. The government treats this as nonsense—which it most likely is—but nonetheless it does conduct regularly scheduled audits of the gold in Fort Knox, including doing purity tests on a small sample of the gold.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is a trend out there that the manipulating managed spread traders cannot survive.

Brazil’s Gold Reserves Rise For First Time Since 2008 By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim on October 25, 2012
Brazil increased its gold reserves for the first time since December 2008 at a time when investors raised holdings in exchange-traded products to a record.
Brazil’s holdings expanded 1.7 tons last month to 35.3 tons, data on the International Monetary Fund’s website showed. Turkey’s holdings increased 6.8 tons and Ukraine added 0.3 ton. Brazil’s central bank doesn’t comment on the policy of its reserve composition, it said in an e-mail.
Central banks have been expanding reserves after the metal climbed the past 11 years and investors held a record tons in bullion-backed exchange-traded products this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Nations bought 254.2 tons in the first half of 2012 and may add close to 500 tons for the year, the London-based World Gold Council said in August.
“We expect strong buying by central banks to continue,” said Dan Smith, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “They will be encouraged by lower prices and continued worries about inflation and currency risks.”
Turkey’s bullion holdings have increased due to it accepting gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks. Russia’s reserves fell by 2.2 tons, Belarus by 1.5 tons, Czech Republic by 0.3 ton and Kazakhstan by 0.4 ton, the IMF data show.
More…


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Keep this firmly in mind. This trend is not going to reverse.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

No matter who is elected the pensioner is flushed. Who speaks for the elderly? The answer is nobody...

San Bernardino halts pension fund payments
Bankrupt city owes $5.3 million to CalPERS; judge may have to decide payment priorities.
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The city of San Bernardino filed for bankruptcy protection three months ago, and shortly afterward was reported to be under investigation by the federal Securities and Exchange Commission, allegedly for hiding deficits by diverting money intended for sewers, roads and construction to pay ongoing bills instead.
Now, the Wall Street Journal reports the Inland Empire city of about 210,000 residents "has stopped making its regular payments to the California Public Employees Retirement System" and owes $5.3 million toward its employees’ pensions. A San Bernardino official told the Journal the city needs to be put on a payment plan because it doesn’t have enough cash to pay its bills.
This is just the latest in a string of California municipal fiscal difficulties. Perhaps more troubling, San Bernardino may offer a glimpse of the future for other cities struggling to avoid bankruptcy as varied interests and creditors make demands for limited funds. A lawyer for the state employees retirement system, known as CalPERS, says federal bankruptcy law doesn’t pre-empt state control over benefits overseen by the fund, the Journal reported.
More…



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is no way QE to infinity can cease. There is no way stimulation in all forms can be reigned in. There is no room for austerity anywhere.
Firing Bernanke if the Banker wins will go down as the greatest error in financial history. If he could make such an error he will also be a one term wonder.

Apple Disappoints 10/25/2012 – 16:33 Apple
And so the behemoth misses… again:
APPLE 4Q EPS $8.67, EST. $8.75 – miss
APPLE 4Q SALES $36.0B – slight beat
APPLE SOLD 14.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.3M

But the uglyness is in the forecast. And this time it is not a low-ball:
APPLE SEES 1Q EEPS $11.75, , EST. $15.49
APPLE SEES 1Q REV. ABOUT $52B, EST. $55.07B

Stock halted so keep an eye on the QQQ as a proxy – QQQs imply AAPL $590 here (200DMA is $587)… AAPL will resume trading at 4:50ET
More…


Amazon Bloodbath After Hours As Suddenly "Earnings Matter" Once Again 10/25/2012 – 16:16 After Hours
After defying gravity for months on end, on what we quarter after quarter warned were ever declining margins and revenue growth, the Amazon bubble (just about 300x P/E at last check) has finally popped, and investors no longer believe that the company can offset collapsing profit margins with increasing volume. And yes, the Kindle is proving to be nothing more than yet another fad rather than the latest and greatest razor-razorblade ecosystem paradigm.
More…


This is what passes for financial journalism at The Telegraph and CNBC

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Appended is another example of the idiot journalism the planet is up against — a rambling and practically unconscious discourse about the German federal auditors office’s call for an inventory of the country’s gold reserves, held at the Bank of England, the Bank of France, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The author, CNBC Senior Editor John Carney, asserts that it doesn’t matter whether Germany’s gold exists provided that everyone just pretends and acts as if it exists: “As long as the Fed says it is there, it is as good as there for all practical purposes to which it might be put. It can be sold, leased out, used as collateral, employed to extinguish liabilities, and counted as bank capital just the same whether it exists or not.”
But if gold is money, the mere pretense of its existence is money creation — potentially infinite money creation. And since, as even establishment luminaries like former Treasury Secretary and Harvard Professor and President Lawrence Summers can attest –
Read More @ gata.org


Poll: Israelis Support Ethnic Cleansing, Annexation and Apartheid State

Israeli Poll Commissioned by New Israel Fund
by Richard Silverstein, Global Research:

A new poll of Israeli Jews by Camil Fuchs and commissioned by the New Israel Fund has alarming findings concerning the deterioration of democratic values in Israel.
Yediot graphic juxtaposes Israeli ID with Kach party emblem, a closed fist, for an article on the threat of Jewish fascism
Gideon Levy writes in Haaretz that Israelis (Jews) have largely shed their previous veneer of democratic values and now hold views that can only be described as authoritarian-racist, if not fascist.
Read More @ GlobalResearch.ca


A Lesson in Empire Building: The Use of “Foreign Aid”

by Chris Rossini, The Economic Policy Journal:

It’s one thing the hear, or read about, the staggering number of U.S. dollars that get doled out to foreign nations. It’s another to actually see it visually on a map.
As you can see, with very few exceptions, just about every single nation in the world receives U.S. taxpayer money.
How can this be?
How can a nation that is $16 Trillion in debt possibly hand out even a dime?
Imagine going up to the average college kid with a student loan debt of $26,600 and asking him/her for a large amount of money. They’d look at you like you were crazy.
Read More @ The Economic Policy Journal


Comstock Lode Gold/Silver Revival Under Way?

A new NYSE-quoted junior miner is looking to rework the old Comstock Lode silver/gold mining district in Nevada and has already poured its first doré bullion late last month.
by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com

Almost anyone who knows anything about American history and mining will have heard of the Comstock Lode, a fabulously rich bonanza grade epithermal silver/gold deposit worked in Nevada mostly in the second half of the 19th Century and centred on Virginia City.
It was originally found by miners heading to the California gold rush and was the first major U.S. discovery of silver. After the discovery was made public in 1859, prospectors rushed to the area and scrambled to stake their claims. Mining camps soon thrived in the vicinity, which became huge centres of wealth. It is notable not just for the immense fortunes it generated and the large role those fortunes had in the growth of Nevada and San Francisco, but also for the advances in mining technology that it spurred with underground operations extending to over 3,000 ft below surface amid extremely difficult conditions – including scalding groundwater temperatures. The principal mining activity was relatively shortlived though lasting only around 20 years. Even so, the mines produced over 190 million ounces of silver and 8 million ounces of gold before the last operations in the area closed. Comstock Lode production was responsible for Nevada being known as The Silver State even though nowadays there is little silver mined there.
Read More @ MineWeb.com


Liberty Dollar Creator Awaits His Fate Behind Bars

Prison May Be the Next Stop on a Gold Currency Journey
by Alan Feuer, New York Times:

High above the cliff tops and the beach bars, up a winding mountain road, in a borrowed house on someone else’s ranch, an unusual criminal is waiting for his fate.
His name is Bernard von NotHaus, and he is a professed “monetary architect” and a maker of custom coins found guilty last spring of counterfeiting charges for minting and distributing a form of private money called the Liberty Dollar.
Described by some as “the Rosa Parks of the constitutional currency movement,” Mr. von NotHaus managed over the last decade to get more than 60 million real dollars’ worth of his precious metal-backed currency into circulation across the country — so much, and with such deep penetration, that the prosecutor overseeing his case accused him of “domestic terrorism” for using them to undermine the government.
Read More @ nytimes.com


Diminishing EU a Wonder to Behold

from The Daily Bell:

Britain has left the European Union in all but name … To all intents and purposes, the UK is already out. We stayed still. Europe galloped away without us. No doubt we can find some elegant formula to paper over the split. As my friend Daniel Hannan puts it, we could devise a Swiss arrangement while pretending that we are still EU members. No point frightening the horses. For those readers who missed it, the UK is preparing to pull out of almost all areas of “Justice and Home Affairs”, the so-called Pillar III of EU jurisdiction. (Pillar I is the single market, and Pillar II is foreign affairs) – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: The EU … forever!
Free-Market Analysis: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard partially redeems himself with this article. After going through a bad patch when he loosed his inner Keynesian and inflicted it on innocent readers, he provides us with a fairly crisp perspective on the reality of Britain’s stance versus the EU.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com


Obama to “Compromise” On Unconstitutional Cyber Security Executive Order

by Kurt Nimmo, InfoWars:

The Obama administration will modify its cyber security executive order to make it more politically palatable.
“President Obama is reported to be willing to compromise on cybersecurity,” writes Taylor Armerding for CSO Online, a network security website.
More than a month after rumors about Obama’s executive order, “there are reports that a final draft is circulating that includes a major compromise to settle differences between those who want government to have free access to networks under attack, and those concerned about violations of privacy,” Armerding reports.
Read More @ InfoWars.com


Top Survival Items At The Supermarket Besides Food

from Activist Post

Previously we have written about the best survival foods found at your local grocery store. But food is not the only thing in supermarkets that can be useful for surviving potential crises. In fact, since large supermarkets have a huge selection besides food, they can provide most survival essentials outside of tools and weapons.
Here are just some of the important survival items to buy in bulk while grocery shopping.  Please add any items we missed into the comment section below.
First Aid Kit: Most grocery stores these days will have pre-made first aid kits which are usually worth buying because they’re easy to store and have diverse items.  However, picking up extra bandages, antibiotic creams, band aids, bug spray, aloe, and other items will be helpful.
Read More @ Activist Post


Buying and Storing Gold in Singapore

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :

We’ve discussed at length the importance of owning precious metals. The financial system is so full of insolvent banks and bankrupt governments, and gold is one of the few assets that you can own which is not simultaneously somebody else’s liability.
Now, there are no shortage of products out there to buy gold. All you have to do is log in to your discount brokerage account and buy some ETF shares. But doing so almost defeats the purpose of owning gold to begin with.
Gold is a safe haven. It’s an ‘anti-currency’ and proxy against the financial system. The more perilous bank and government balance sheets become, the more attractive gold becomes because it carries none of these risks.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com


An End to Exponential Easing at the Altar of Bernanke’s Faith-Based Inflation! 

from Capital Account:

 

The top executives at more than 80 big US corporations sent a letter to Congress asking for “comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit.” The CEO statement, organized by the Fix the Debt campaign, calls for a Simpson-Bowles type approach to reign in the US deficit: three dollars in spending cuts for each dollar of tax increases.
The US has been running trillion dollar budget deficits for more than four years, amounting to more than $16 trillion in national debt. With no plan in sight for politicians to significantly rein in spending or balance the budget, the chief executives, including General Electric’s Jeff Immelt and BlackRock’s Larry Fink, have stepped out of the shadows to pressure congress into action. We talk to our guest, Simon Mikhailovich of Eidesis Capital, about potential approaches for tackling the US debt.
And Japan’s finance ministry will hold crisis talks with bond dealers tomorrow, according to the Financial Times. Japanese politicians are at odds over a bill that would allow the government to borrow 38.3 trillion yen (479 billion dollars) to finance the deficit.

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