Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass is back and cutting through the caustic bullshit that surrounds every waking moment in this kick-the-can world. Dispelling the myth of our 'deleveraging' virtue, with global debt having grown from $80tn to over $200tn in the last ten years alone (a 10.7% CAGR) and the frightening reality of central bank balance sheet growth of 16% per annum, Bass concludes (rightly) that "you can't do this for very long" as governments infinitely leverage and central banks have begun the endgame of open-ended money-printing. Addressing the question of timing, Bass notes that while Europe and Japan are 'perceived' to be 'staying together' there are in fact devastating losses occurring (ask Greek bond-holders) and he firmly believes that "Germany will never go joint-and-several with the rest of Europe." The world sits at a place it has never been before in peace-time - as far as global debt balances and deficits - and that is why the global investing playbook is so hard. He goes on to address hyper-levered economies, delayed inflationary outcomes, and worries that the cost-push (lower GDP, higher CPI) prints are just beginning in Europe. As a fiduciary, and something all investors should consider, Bass states "Given what we see coming, our job is not to lose money!"
from Gold Money News:
Is Gold In A Bubble?
With
precious metals once again on the rise, the questions begin as to
whether or not gold is in a bubble. While these questions never seem to
occur among the cogniscenti when equity prices race ahead non-stop for
months on end with no volatility, Brent Johnson (of Santiago Capital)
offers up five 'facts' that help to explain why gold at $1800 is far
from a bubble - especially as central banks shift from 'measured' responses to open-ended debauchment.
from KingWorldNews:
With gold trading near the $1,800 level and silver around $34.50, today King World News is pleased to share a piece of legendary technical analyst Louise Yamada’s “Technical Perspectives” report. This information is not available to the public and we are grateful to Louise for sharing her incredible work with KWN readers globally.
Metals: Gold & Silver
By Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC (“LYA”)
October 3 (King World News) – Gold spot price (GOLDS-1,772.10, see Figure 11) followed through on the breakout and moved through the first resistance of 1,700, moving close to the next target / resistance at 1,800 for an 11% advance. A well-deserved rest may be at hand, either for a sideways consolidation or a pullback that could carry toward 1,750 or even toward 1,700.
Price has regained the 2008 uptrend and the 50-day MA has crossed positively above the 200-day MA, with the weekly momentum retaining a strong Buy (as in 2008, see arrows) to suggest a renewed advance is underway.
An eventual move through 1,800 would suggest a test of the high and the possibility of moving toward our longstanding target at 2,000. The important support levels remain at 1,600-1,539.
Louise Yamada continues @ KingWorldNews.com
This report takes a look at changes in large trader positioning for gold futures on the COMEX in New York. We also take a look at two of our Subscriber charts for gold, as well as other charts of interest, including metal holdings for GLD and SLV, the VXO Volatility Index, the Dow Transportation Index and much more.
Read More @ GotGoldReport.com
from MrFijitime1:
About That Money On The Sidelines: It's "All In"
Despite being told again and again by any-and-every commission-taker and newsletter-vendor that sentiment
is terrible, managers will need to high-beta performance-chase, and the
'money-on-the-sidelines' is just around the corner; it appears that reality is different. The Net
Long Interest in S&P 500 Futures (the most liquid equity trading
vehicle in the world) is now at its highest since December 2008. The last time investors were this 'net long', the S&P 500 fell over 25% in the next two months.The Secret Deal Between the Democrats and Republicans To Control the Presidential Debates
It's Not America Anymore
Those who rally behind the modern concept of America rally behind a façade — an empty shell devoid of the heart and soul that gave life to this once great experiment. It is time for us to decide what kind of Americans we wish to be: the deluded rah-rah puppets of a desiccated totalitarian society, or the watchmen on the wall. Will we be the keepers and protectors of the vital core of the American identity, or will we be fly-by-night consumers of the flavor-of-the-day political carnival, eating every tainted sample from the elitist platter in an insane attempt to replace our free heritage with a sleek, sexy, rehashed form of top-down feudalism?
Turkey Fires Artillery Shells Into Syria In Alleged Retaliation
Following this morning's reported shelling of a Turkish town (from Syrian lands):- *NINE INJURED AS SHELL FROM SYRIA LANDS IN TURKISH TOWN: NTV
- *TURKISH ARTILLERY BOMBARDS SYRIA IN WARNING, ZAMAN REPORTS
- *TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS NATO AFTER SYRIA BORDER SHELLING
Does Stimulus Spending Work?
As we patiently await tonight's much-anticipated debate - and its zinger-ful diatribe of tax, spend, save, borrow, jobs, jobs, jobs word bingo - we thought this perfectly succinct clip dismissing the myth of how government stimulus leads to economic growth was particularly pertinent. Professor Antony Davies provides evidence, via empirical data from 1955, that there is no connection between federal spending and economic improvement - and as we have repeatedly noted - it merely adds to government debt. From the 'magic' of the Keynesian multiplier to the eyes-wide-shut view of spending creating jobs while ignoring the taxing-borrowing-printing nature of that spending. Government doesn't create jobs, it 'moves' jobs; as three years of stimulus spending has left us with ~8% unemployment and $4.6tn more debt.
by Marin Katusa, Casey Research:
The Senkaku Islands, also called the Diaoyu (Fishing) Islands in
Chinese, are five unremarkable and uninhabited landmasses in the East
China Sea to the northeast of Taiwan. The islands cover total area of
only about 7 square kilometers, less than a tenth of the size of
Manhattan.
Japan, China, and Taiwan all lay claim to the islands. Though heated words were often exchanged and warnings frequently issued by all sides, everyone assumed that the status quo would continue, and calmer heads would prevail…
Until now.
On September 11, 2012, Japan formally nationalized three of the five islands, setting off events that could lead all the nations in the region down a warpath.
Chinese citizens, clearly angered by Japan’s provocation, began a series of anti-Japanese protests that spread across almost 200 cities. Japanese products were boycotted, cars were smashed, and stores were looted. A week after the Japanese announcement, a flotilla of a thousand Chinese ships entered Japanese waters. A week after that, China sent its strongest signal yet: the country commissioned its first-ever aircraft carrier into service.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
So the Fed is pinning its hopes on stimulating the economy via the wealth effect again, as it did when it revived the post-tech-wreck asset bubble in housing and credit in that now infamous 2003-07 period of radical excess. But here's the rub. While there is a wealth effect on spending, the correlation going back to 1952 is only 57%. But the correlation between spending and after-tax personal incomes is more like 75%. The impact is leagues apart. And that is the problem here, as we saw real disposable personal income decline 0.3% in August for the largest setback of the year. The QE2 trend of 1.7% is about half the 3.2% trend that was in place at the time of 0E2. Not only that, but the personal savings rate is too low to kick-start spending, even if the Fed is successful in generating significant asset price inflation. The savings rate now is at a mere 3.7%, whereas it was 6% at the time of QE1 back in 2009 and over 5% at the time of QE2 2010 — in other words, there is less pent-up demand right now and a much greater need to rebuild rather than draw down the personal savings rate. This is a key obstacle even in the face of higher net worth.
from opportunityshow:
This is a really good read, long, but worth it, please take the time
and read it. I did not write this, and I give credit to the author just
below. I just knew I had to post it after I read it.
From Matt Bracken:
In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision of the future. Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.
Continue Reading at TacticalPatriot.Blogspot.ca…
Equity
prices - and more specifically valuations - are becoming increasingly
disconnected from economic reality. As Bloomberg's Jo Brusuelas notes
though the Fed may be driving up asset prices without achieving their
end goal of improving economic conditions - based on a number of recent
economic surprises. As earnings expectations and a global slowdown
continued to point to recessionary outcomes (with industrial and
consumer data weak), the probability of a fundamental mispricing in
stocks and bonds grows. But when we look over the medium-term at how
bonds and stocks react to negative and positive economic surprises over
time, it is more than abundantly clear that not only is the
bond market more sensitive-to and reflective-of the economic state of
the world (and its expectations) but the equity markets remain
significantly less sanguine about reality (about 20% less!!).
Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
The Senkaku Islands, also called the Diaoyu (Fishing) Islands in
Chinese, are five unremarkable and uninhabited landmasses in the East
China Sea to the northeast of Taiwan. The islands cover total area of
only about 7 square kilometers, less than a tenth of the size of
Manhattan.Japan, China, and Taiwan all lay claim to the islands. Though heated words were often exchanged and warnings frequently issued by all sides, everyone assumed that the status quo would continue, and calmer heads would prevail…
Until now.
On September 11, 2012, Japan formally nationalized three of the five islands, setting off events that could lead all the nations in the region down a warpath.
Chinese citizens, clearly angered by Japan’s provocation, began a series of anti-Japanese protests that spread across almost 200 cities. Japanese products were boycotted, cars were smashed, and stores were looted. A week after the Japanese announcement, a flotilla of a thousand Chinese ships entered Japanese waters. A week after that, China sent its strongest signal yet: the country commissioned its first-ever aircraft carrier into service.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
by Susanne Posel, Occupy Corporatism:
The European Union and the Spanish Economic Minister Luis de Guindos have had secret talks
concerning the restructuring of Spain’s austerity cutbacks on education
and health care pre-bailout wherein the nation will lose its
sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission and the European Central Bank.
This sovereign land-grab by the central banking cartels is mirrored in a recent Goldman Sachs report: “The more the Spanish administration indulges domestic political interests … the more explicit conditionality is likely to be demanded.” In other words the technocrats working for the Zionists are acquiring each country in the EuroZone.
In response, the citizens of Spain took to the streets in protest with signs reading: “We can’t take any more.” More than 6,000 demonstrators gathered before the Spanish Parliament in Madrid as an estimated 1,000 riot police readied to prevent the citizens from entering the compound. Demonstrators threw bottles, stones and beat down police who got in their way. Despite the batons and menacing paramilitary gear worn by the police, the Spaniards would not be deterred.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
The European Union and the Spanish Economic Minister Luis de Guindos have had secret talks
concerning the restructuring of Spain’s austerity cutbacks on education
and health care pre-bailout wherein the nation will lose its
sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission and the European Central Bank.This sovereign land-grab by the central banking cartels is mirrored in a recent Goldman Sachs report: “The more the Spanish administration indulges domestic political interests … the more explicit conditionality is likely to be demanded.” In other words the technocrats working for the Zionists are acquiring each country in the EuroZone.
In response, the citizens of Spain took to the streets in protest with signs reading: “We can’t take any more.” More than 6,000 demonstrators gathered before the Spanish Parliament in Madrid as an estimated 1,000 riot police readied to prevent the citizens from entering the compound. Demonstrators threw bottles, stones and beat down police who got in their way. Despite the batons and menacing paramilitary gear worn by the police, the Spaniards would not be deterred.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
by Washington’s Blog, Global Research:
Church of England: Bankers Should Repent
We’ve extensively documented that Jesus, his apostles, and ancient Jewish leaders would all be furious with modern bankers.
We’ve also noted that the first Christians and Jews insisted on debt forgiveness as one of their core tenets. Indeed, the founders of all of the great religions taught that forgiveness of debt is the core of spirituality.
Usury was condemned by virtually all of the world’s religions.
And Dante’s Inferno is populated largely with usurers, misers and other “financial sinners”.
It’s not just the ancients …
The Church of England recently submitted comments to the British parliamentary commission investigating the Libor rate-fixing scandal and other recent banking misdeeds, saying that bankers should repent:
Church of England: Bankers Should RepentWe’ve extensively documented that Jesus, his apostles, and ancient Jewish leaders would all be furious with modern bankers.
We’ve also noted that the first Christians and Jews insisted on debt forgiveness as one of their core tenets. Indeed, the founders of all of the great religions taught that forgiveness of debt is the core of spirituality.
Usury was condemned by virtually all of the world’s religions.
And Dante’s Inferno is populated largely with usurers, misers and other “financial sinners”.
It’s not just the ancients …
The Church of England recently submitted comments to the British parliamentary commission investigating the Libor rate-fixing scandal and other recent banking misdeeds, saying that bankers should repent:
The question is not whether systems have been adequate to identify and deal with the bad apples but whether the whole orchard needs replanting.
***
The [real] question is how banking can restore its internal professional standards in ways which communicate trust both within the industry and with stakeholders throughout the community. [The Church is correct.]
Read More @ GlobalResearch.ca
by Gregor Macdonald, Peak Prosperity:
The Federal Reserve is probably not ready to take the aggressive plunge into Nominal GDP Targeting - but it likely will.
Such a policy, which received wider attention during Ben Bernanke’s Congressional questioning last year and was also highlighted this year in a paper delivered at the Jackson Hole conference (Woodford, opens to PDF), has not caught any visible traction with Washington policy makers possibly because it’s seen as either too radical, or simply too new.
However, after four years of broad reflationary policy (and another year to come) that has failed to meaningfully spur US employment growth, the FED may be willing to try such measures by late next year, 2013.
Indeed, given the FED’s recent announcement of open-ended QE, one can already anticipate the incremental move towards NGDP Targeting, which has as its central belief that an aggressive and open-ended promise to pursue growth at the expense of inflation is the booster required to push a structurally broken economy back to normal trend. Moreover, in contrast to Bernanke’s swift rejection last year of NGDP on a conceptual basis, Bernanke discussed the idea in friendlier terms during his post FOMC news conference.
Read More @ PeakProsperity.com
Coming to your area...Much Sooner then you Think... Prepare accordingly...
The Federal Reserve is probably not ready to take the aggressive plunge into Nominal GDP Targeting - but it likely will.Such a policy, which received wider attention during Ben Bernanke’s Congressional questioning last year and was also highlighted this year in a paper delivered at the Jackson Hole conference (Woodford, opens to PDF), has not caught any visible traction with Washington policy makers possibly because it’s seen as either too radical, or simply too new.
However, after four years of broad reflationary policy (and another year to come) that has failed to meaningfully spur US employment growth, the FED may be willing to try such measures by late next year, 2013.
Indeed, given the FED’s recent announcement of open-ended QE, one can already anticipate the incremental move towards NGDP Targeting, which has as its central belief that an aggressive and open-ended promise to pursue growth at the expense of inflation is the booster required to push a structurally broken economy back to normal trend. Moreover, in contrast to Bernanke’s swift rejection last year of NGDP on a conceptual basis, Bernanke discussed the idea in friendlier terms during his post FOMC news conference.
Read More @ PeakProsperity.com
Coming to your area...Much Sooner then you Think... Prepare accordingly...
by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
As more and more Americans across the country become impoverished by rising costs for essential goods, falling wages, job losses, and an unraveling social safety net, those with nothing left to lose are becoming more daring, more aggressive and more ruthless.
Nowhere is this as apparent than in the cities of Chicago, where police have compared the explosion in violence to a tribal warfare akin to what we’ve seen in Iraq or Afghanistan, and Detroit, Michigan, where acres upon acres of dilapidated homes have been razed and police have simply stopped responding to emergency calls in certain areas.
The rule of law is steadily collapsing, and in due time you may see it in your city:
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com
As more and more Americans across the country become impoverished by rising costs for essential goods, falling wages, job losses, and an unraveling social safety net, those with nothing left to lose are becoming more daring, more aggressive and more ruthless.
Nowhere is this as apparent than in the cities of Chicago, where police have compared the explosion in violence to a tribal warfare akin to what we’ve seen in Iraq or Afghanistan, and Detroit, Michigan, where acres upon acres of dilapidated homes have been razed and police have simply stopped responding to emergency calls in certain areas.
The rule of law is steadily collapsing, and in due time you may see it in your city:
Even the old-timers in Detroit never have seen anything like this… A mob of 40 black people moved into a convenience store and will not leave.
They say they now own it. They eat. Smoke. Cuss.Threaten. Spit. Rob. Sell drugs. All on video.
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com
from Silver Vigilante:
Orders across the world are defined by their old fascist or communist
proclivities. After fascist periods in Europe, for example, many of the
countries (Germany included) appointed individuals from the old, fascist
guards. Germany appointed Nazis because it was practical, and Spain
appointed fascists because “silence” regarding the bloody period was
institutionalized. These old orders still weigh on today, and as
antagonisms increase the world over, a major question must be addressed:
Will the old fascists, who are really the old fascists, react with
violence as they did before. A colonel in Spain says “yes.”
In shocking disregard to the value of human life – especially that of Spain’s own soldiers and citizens – Col. Francisco Alaman responded to the 1.5 million person demonstration in Barcelona last month of Catalan calls for independence for Catalonia by saying: “Independence for Catalonia? Over my dead body…and those of many soldiers.” That’s right, in the 21st century, no plebiscites, just war. But, as the second richest region in Spain, with a GDP of 220 billion euros a year, Spain might have to take the independence movement seriously.
Read More @ Silver Vigilante
Orders across the world are defined by their old fascist or communist
proclivities. After fascist periods in Europe, for example, many of the
countries (Germany included) appointed individuals from the old, fascist
guards. Germany appointed Nazis because it was practical, and Spain
appointed fascists because “silence” regarding the bloody period was
institutionalized. These old orders still weigh on today, and as
antagonisms increase the world over, a major question must be addressed:
Will the old fascists, who are really the old fascists, react with
violence as they did before. A colonel in Spain says “yes.”In shocking disregard to the value of human life – especially that of Spain’s own soldiers and citizens – Col. Francisco Alaman responded to the 1.5 million person demonstration in Barcelona last month of Catalan calls for independence for Catalonia by saying: “Independence for Catalonia? Over my dead body…and those of many soldiers.” That’s right, in the 21st century, no plebiscites, just war. But, as the second richest region in Spain, with a GDP of 220 billion euros a year, Spain might have to take the independence movement seriously.
Read More @ Silver Vigilante
David Rosenberg: "RIP Wealth Effect"
So the Fed is pinning its hopes on stimulating the economy via the wealth effect again, as it did when it revived the post-tech-wreck asset bubble in housing and credit in that now infamous 2003-07 period of radical excess. But here's the rub. While there is a wealth effect on spending, the correlation going back to 1952 is only 57%. But the correlation between spending and after-tax personal incomes is more like 75%. The impact is leagues apart. And that is the problem here, as we saw real disposable personal income decline 0.3% in August for the largest setback of the year. The QE2 trend of 1.7% is about half the 3.2% trend that was in place at the time of 0E2. Not only that, but the personal savings rate is too low to kick-start spending, even if the Fed is successful in generating significant asset price inflation. The savings rate now is at a mere 3.7%, whereas it was 6% at the time of QE1 back in 2009 and over 5% at the time of QE2 2010 — in other words, there is less pent-up demand right now and a much greater need to rebuild rather than draw down the personal savings rate. This is a key obstacle even in the face of higher net worth.
from opportunityshow:
Must Read...How Our Cities Might Explode
from Tactical Patriot Blog
From Matt Bracken:
In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision of the future. Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.
Continue Reading at TacticalPatriot.Blogspot.ca…
Why You Should Believe Bonds And Not Stocks (Again)
Equity
prices - and more specifically valuations - are becoming increasingly
disconnected from economic reality. As Bloomberg's Jo Brusuelas notes
though the Fed may be driving up asset prices without achieving their
end goal of improving economic conditions - based on a number of recent
economic surprises. As earnings expectations and a global slowdown
continued to point to recessionary outcomes (with industrial and
consumer data weak), the probability of a fundamental mispricing in
stocks and bonds grows. But when we look over the medium-term at how
bonds and stocks react to negative and positive economic surprises over
time, it is more than abundantly clear that not only is the
bond market more sensitive-to and reflective-of the economic state of
the world (and its expectations) but the equity markets remain
significantly less sanguine about reality (about 20% less!!).Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
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