Tuesday, October 2, 2012

KWN Exclusive – Today The Fed Unofficially Announced QE4

from KingWorldNews:
Today Michael Pento stunned King World when he said, “… the Fed doubled down on QE3 this morning and unofficially announced QE4.” Pento believes the mainstream media does not understand what just happened today, but he said it will have massive implications for the markets, including gold and silver.
Pento has been incredibly accurate regarding his predictions of central bank moves. Pento noted, “… he (Charles Evans) did not indicate that these new and additional purchases, which will start in January, would be sterilized.”
Here is what Pento had to say: “The mainstream media has it all wrong once again. I noticed that gold and energy, commodities in general, turned around right after Charles Evans, who is the Chicago Fed President, spoke (earlier today). The media pretty much ignored it.”
“They (mainstream media) are crediting this huge rally that we’ve seen today in energy, commodities, and even in the nominal averages, because of a strong ISM Manufacturing Index that came out. It has nothing to do with the fundamental weakness or strength in the global economy.
It has everything to do with the fact that the Fed doubled down on QE3 this morning and unofficially announced QE4….
Michael Pento continues @ KingWorldNews.com


Eight Signs The System Is Broken

Here are a few interesting tidbits to chew on...







Spanish Gallows Humor: "Cuts... Are Necessary"

  It seems the underground economy in Spain is picking up. Hand-crafted T-Shirts have become all the rage as the youth of the country send a subtle message to their leaders... The good news - the shirts are still priced in EURs, likely signifying ongoing confidence in the failed monetary experiment. Although we are confident pricing in New Pesetas is available upon request.


 

Big Oil Funding U.S. Politics...

U.S. Rep. John Boehner, speaker of the House of Representatives, received nearly twice as much financial support from donors tied to the energy sector than did the next-closest recipient, a report from the National Wildlife Federation finds. The 20-page report highlights the role it says oil companies play in U.S. politics, stating energy companies are working behind the scenes on Capitol Hill to influence legislation in favour of oil, natural gas and coal policies. The NWF's report, however, is non-partisan in its effort to showcase the energy sector's monetary influence over U.S. politics. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who serves on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, ranked No. 2 on the NWF's list. Of the top 10 lawmakers listed in the NWF report, however, Manchin is the only Democrat and received $480,050 compared to Boehner's $814,060.

 

The Presidential Election "Double Tap"

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 31 minutes ago
*The abuse of buying and selling votes crept in and money began to play an important part in determining elections. Later on, this process of corruption spread to the law courts. And then to the army, and finally the Republic was subjected to the rule of emperors.* - Plutarch (Historian of the Roman Republic) In the famous (infamous?) words of Watergate's "Deep Throat:" "Follow the money." Apparently Romney's wealthy donors are fleeing his campaign like cock roaches when the light is turned on: LINK To make matters worse, Romney isn't going to be getting many votes from women... more » 

SP 500 Dec Futures Shorter Term Chart - Symmetrical Triangle 



Dancing On The Grave Of Keynesianism

The problem we are going to face at some point as a nation and in fact as a civilization is this: there is no well-developed economic theory inside the corridors of power that will explain to the administrators of a failed system what they should do after the system collapses. This was true in the Eastern bloc in 1991. There was no plan of action, no program of institutional reform. This is true in banking. This is true in politics. This is true in every aspect of the welfare-warfare state. The people at the top are going to be presiding over a complete disaster, and they will not be able to admit to themselves or anybody else that their system is what produced the disaster. So, they will not make fundamental changes. They will not restructure the system, by decentralizing power, and by drastically reducing government spending. They will be forced to decentralize by the collapsed capital markets. The welfare-warfare state, Keynesian economics, and the Council on Foreign Relations are going to suffer major defeats when the economic system finally goes down. The system will go down. It is not clear what will pull the trigger, but it is obvious that the banking system is fragile, and the only thing capable of bailing it out is fiat money. The system is sapping the productivity of the nation, because the Federal Reserve's purchases of debt are siphoning productivity and capital out of the private sector and into those sectors subsidized by the federal government.


Why The High-Yield Market Won't See A Performance-Chasing Rally


It seems that every commission-taking talking-head with a voice-box is espousing the 'truth' that equity portfolio managers will be forced to chase performance into year-end for fear of career-risk (we presume) in order to merely catch-up. In high-yield markets, however, where performance has been outstanding, things are quite different. As Barclays notes, performance among HY mutual funds is tightly clustered this year (especially relative to recent years). This leaves a HY credit market that is tightly call-constrained on capital appreciation (thanks to Bernanke's ZIRP), starting to see inflows fade post-QEternity (and shares outstanding drop in the ETFs), with managers anxious about their relative performance in a tightly correlated and crowded world of illiquidity away from ETFs. As is clear by recent performance, high-yield market participants are less sanguine on the future than their equity counterparts - just as they were in April.



This Is Why High Frequency Trading Will Never Go Away


In April of 2009 we warned very explicitly that reliance on the fake "liquidity" (which was never liquidity per se but merely volume and churn) by the HFT algos that stuff quotes, frontrun each other, spoof, layer, and generally make a mockery out of the thing fomerly known as the market (which is now more than anything a policy vehicle for central planners but that's a different story) would result in tears. A year later the first flash crash happened, and ever since then more and more people have finally realized how our 3+ year long crusade against HFT (which sadly is now a minor distraction against the far greater evil which is central bank dominance of capital markets) was spot on, confirmed by the recent segments (here, here and here) on CNBC which effectively confirmed the markets are not only a joke, but without any real depth, i.e. fake. What is amusing is that people still don't understand why the exchanges, and the regulators (coopted by the exchanges) allow HFT to continue. Here is the answer: in 2011 the CME made 31.5% of all its revenues from HFT, the ICE: 25.1%, the NYSE: 21.4%, the Nasdaq: 17.1%, the CBOE: 22.4%, and so on.





Italian "Austerity" In Action: Maserati For Its UK Ambassador

While we already know how Spain's Prime Minister is celebrating the country's brand new austerity budget (From Bloomberg: "The premier and five staff drank 10 beers and seven bottles of wine with a dinner of filet steak and turbot on their flight back from a European championship soccer match the day after Spain asked its European partners for a 100 billion-euro bailout to recapitalize its banks, the weekly reported, citing catering bills from the Spanish Air Force.") there was little color on how the "other" country undergoing austerity (not really) for the common man was enacting belt-tightening and spending reductions. We say "not really" because as we have shown, Europe has yet to actually implement austerity. And yet the people suffer. Or rather, once again, it is the common man who suffers, and because of that is convinced that the government is spending less. It certainly isn't as we showed in the case of Spain whose tax revenues have increased even as spending has increased, promises to the contrary notwithstanding. But where is the money going then? Surely if the common man is suffering, everyone else must be too. Turns out the answer is no. As the following picture below shows, where previously a simple Lancia with the license plate "ITA1" once stood, the car that is now proudly parked in the same spot and drives around Italy's ambassador to the UK, Alain Giorgio Maria Economides (read his heartfelt message to all here), is a new Maserati Quattroporte.




Is It Different This Time?

If history is a guide, the rest of the year is destined to be a winner. As Barclays points out, thew typical election-year cycle is a first half of range-bound trading followed by a second half of acceleration higher. 2012 has followed this pattern but on a much higher beta scale, with the current year's performance more than 50% above typical election-year full-year performance. Of course, we have never had a debt-ceiling and fiscal cliff debacle that needs to be resolved between the election and year-end. What's more interesting to us, given the surge in P/E multiple expansion driven by central-bank largesse, is that P/E multiples have contracted notably in the latter half of election years in the last 40 years. So when your long-only manager says - you have to buy because of the election year cycle, maybe ask him about the election year 'valuation' cycle.



Why Germany must face up to its €1 trillion headache

by Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph:


One of the most mind-boggling debates going on in euroland right now – only one of many, but particularly guaranteed to make the head spin, this one – is over the build-up of so-called “Target 2” claims and liabilities. Target 2 is the mechanism by which money is transferred around the euro area to ensure that each national central bank has sufficient euros to fund its banking system.
Accumulated cross border claims are now so extreme that they threaten to leave German taxpayers with huge losses should the euro break up, or any one of its members leaves.
What makes this debate of particular importance is that it is German opposition to debt pooling in the eurozone that is generally thought, at least among the periphery nations, to be the biggest barrier to crisis resolution.
If only the Germans would agree to treat Europe’s debts as one, rather than the separate responsibility of 17 different sovereign nations, then all this nastiness would go away. Well, through Target 2, it can reasonably be argued, these debts are already being shared, only many Germans don’t yet know it and it certainly hasn’t cured the crisis. The euro has stuffed the Germans just as much as the Spanish, Italians and Greeks.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk


Keiser Report: Debt Erasers (E348)

 from RussiaToday:

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the nine scariest words in the English language – “I’m from JP Morgan and I’m here to help you.” They also discuss deferred prosecution agreements and celebrities and bloggers shilling for banksters in California’s mortgage contract-asset seizure market. In the second half of the show, Max Keiser talks to Jaromil about bitcoin as a digital charm bracelet and the revolution in accounting science – triple entry accounting.


Bull trend intact for Gold but zero Silver demand seen in India

by Ben Traynor, Bullion Street:
Spot market gold bullion prices dipped below $1770 an ounce during Monday morning London trading, though they remained in line with the last fortnight’s price action, while European stock markets rallied along with the Euro following news late last week that the capital needs of Spain’s banks are within existing provisions.
“On the monthly chart, the bull trend remains intact, with uptrend support at $1594 and resistance at $1790, the previous high,” says technical analyst Russell Browne at Scotia Mocatta.
“Gold seems to have established a base now down at $1740,” adds Dave Govett, head of precious metals at brokerage Marex-Spectron.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com


Spain Veers Off Target

by Pater Tenebrarum, Acting-Man.com:
Budget Deficit Widens
One shouldn’t be particularly surprised by this, but Spain announced yesterday that it won’t be able to meet even its already twice revised budget deficit target this year. In fact, the gap between the target and the newest estimate yawns pretty wide.
The WSJ reports:
„The Spanish government Saturday said the effort to clean up an ailing banking system will have a big impact on its finances, widening its budget gap and increasing its debt load. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said the government forecasts its budget deficit will stand at 7.4% of gross domestic product this year. Excluding the impact of measures to help banks to digest a massive pile of toxic real-estate assets, he said Spain will comply with the deficit target of 6.3% of GDP for 2012 it has committed to with the European Union.“
Read More @ Acting-Man.com


The Financial System: A Target in the Code War

by Dan Denning, Daily Reckoning.com.au:
Uh. Things are heating up in ‘The Code War.’ Last week we wrote about the rise in un-armed conflict between…well between pretty much everyone (organised crime, hackers, governments, terrorists etc). This week there are a lot of ‘pre-incident’ indicators that suggest we’re on the verge of a new era of permanent on-line conflict in which systems that control information are one of many targets.
The event that caught our eye this week was a report that the White House Military Office was the target of a ‘spear phishing’ attack that originated from computer servers in China. ‘Spear phishing’ is an attack where a credible looking email convinces a recipient to divulge valuable or sensitive information like a password or account information. It’s not to be confused with ‘spear trading’, which is when Murray makes a high-risk trade in Slipstream Trader that’s not part of his larger portfolio.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au


Tom Woods Talks to Bob Murphy about Krugman, QE3, Liquidity Traps, and More

from TomWoodsTV:

Bestselling author Tom Woods and economist Robert Murphy discusses the economy and what fashionable opinion thinks should be done about it.


It’s Believed That Obama’s White House is Already Using the NDAA To Detain U.S. Citizens Without Trial

from RT, via MOXNEWSd0tC0M:




Fear Index update: Euro Fear Index edition

by Félix Moreno de la Cova, Gold Money:

Even before the Federal Reserve announced its latest bond-buying blitz on September 13, US money supply measures were growing at a healthy clip. Unofficial M3 calculations reached $14.7 trillion in August. Now that the Fed has approved additional money printing to the tune of $80 billion a month ($40bn in MBS and $40bn in Treasury debt) we can be very confident of reaching our previous projection of $15 trillion this year. After that it will become very difficult to predict, as money printing accelerates beyond linear models.
As more people wake up to this, and realise that in our interconnected world there are very few places and asset classes that are immune to the recklessness of our central planners, precious metals will slowly win the affections of ordinary investors: first as safe haven investments, then as monetary metals.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com


Working Group on MBS Fraud Brings First Complaint Against a Big Bank, JPMorgan

from Silver Vigilante:
JP Morgan, the capstone of fraud in the US banking system, has been sued for defrauding investors who lost more than $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities written by Bear Stearns. The action, according to FT, is part-and-parcel of a “last push” by US authorities to hit banks for their behavior in the run-up to the financial crisis. (This “last push” is the death kneel of regulation, as not even a last push on the best steroids available could bring Wall Street to justice considering their endemic raping of the planet). It is the first complaint against a big bank by the federal mortgage task force that was formed in January by the Department of Justice. Similar claims are being threatened against other banks by the office of Eric Schneiderman, New York attorney-general, who says Bear Sterns, which JP Morgan acquired in 2008, had “committed multiple fraudulent and deceptive acts in promoting and selling” MBS. People close to the investigations have let out that in recent weeks some banks have held settlement talks with regulators. The Department of Justice is expected to hold a press conference Tuesday related to the JP Morgan suit. DoJ attorneys took part in the probe, interviewing 42 employees of Clayton Holdings, a due diligence firm under the umbrella of Bear Sterns. DoJ also assigned a dozen analysts to review millions of pages of documents, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Read More @ Silver Vigilante


Flirting with Fascism and Socialism – The Economic Calculation Problem

from Wealth Cycles:
Time and time again throughout history, humanity has discovered that centralized intervention in markets leads to shortages and high prices, despite desperate efforts to avoid these very outcomes. Why?
The answer is simple unintended consequences.
Every day one can find something along these lines to laugh at. Zerohedge reported today that Chinese authorities removed tolls from highways during “golden week,” in order to spur a touch of Keynesian-loved consumer demand.
Of course, the only demand that was created was that for gasoline, as millions joined millions more in the streets, creating all sorts of debilitating traffic jams, jellies and preserves.
In the U.S., one could observe another example of failed central planning in the debacle of the Solyndra bankruptcy filing.
Read More @ WealthCycles.com


Gold Market Update: Clive Says Take Profits, Fails to Mention CFTC Position Limits Being Overturned by Criminal Judge

by Clive Maund, Gold Seek:
Action in the Precious Metals markets yesterday was VERY bearish and confirms our suspicion that an intermediate top may be forming that could lead to a brutal correction. Yes, yes, we know how bullish open-ended QE is for gold and silver and how the dollar is doomed etc, but so does everyone else – and the latest COTs show that both Large and Small Specs have thrown everything they have got at this uptrend, as we observed at the weekend. The trade is now dangerously overloaded on one side of the scales and a larger dollar rally, which looks likely on technical grounds, could trigger a sudden rout in the PMs.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com


U.S. Supreme Court refuses to hear mining associations’ Roadless Rule appeal

After a decade-long legal battle, exploration activities and mining development are effectively banned on 45 million acres of national forests in the United States.
by Dorothy Kosich, MineWeb.com
The U.S. Supreme Court’s refusal Monday to hear an appeal by the Colorado and Wyoming Mining Associations to strike down the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, prohibiting most roads on 45 million acres of national forests, effectively bans mining development and exploration access on these lands.
The Colorado Mining Association had argued the rule “is a sweeping usurpation of the authority vested solely in Congress to designate lands as wilderness.”
The mining associations asked the high court to overturn a decision last year by the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which upheld the Clinton Administration-era rule and reversed a Wyoming U.S. district court’s ruling that the rule had created de facto wilderness and violated the National Environmental Policy Act.
Read More @ MineWeb.com


US Is Debt Addict on ‘Budgetary Crystal Meth’: Gross

by Jeff Cox, CNBC:

Stocks and bonds will be virtually worthless and gold and hard assets will be the only investments worth having unless the U.S. tames its addiction to debt and deficits, Pimco’s Bill Gross said Tuesday.
In his widely followed monthly Pimco investor newsletter, the CEO of the company that runs the largest bond fund in the world paints a stark picture of the domestic financial picture.
He said the nation has lost the trust of financial entities including the Congressional Budget Office, International Monetary Fund and the Bank of International Settlements, each of which lately has published critiques of international finance.
Read More @ CNBC


95% of ‘Syrian rebels’ not Syrians

from RussiaToday:

The Syrian crisis is a result of a coherent collective effort by a gang of foreign states – that’s the message Syria’s foreign minister laid out for the UN General Assembly.
International law professor Daoud Khairallah says that Syrians would never inflict such vicious destruction on their homeland and the fact that foreign fighters are involved in the war runs against the UN charter.


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