Thursday, October 4, 2012

India's Stock Exchange 'Closes' After State Bank 'Flash-Crash'


While we have grown accustomed to the daily gyrations on mega-volume in the US equity markets, it seems the HFT-virus has spread as far afield as India this evening. India's National Stock Exchange was halted - with no price dissemination - as State Bank of India plunged over 14% in seconds on massive relative volume (and HDFC and Infosys also fell), dragging the Nifty Index down 3%. Of course, the 'error' is being investigated and SBIN has recovered its losses...
  • *STATE BANK OF INDIA SHARES FALL 14% ON NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE
  • *INDIA'S NIFTY INDEX EXTENDS DECLINE TO 2.8%
  • *NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE SAYS VERIFYING SOURCE OF PRICE ERROR
  • *NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE SAYS NIFTY INDEX LEVELS NOT UPDATING
  • *INDIA'S NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE RESUMES TRADING
  • *INDIA'S SENSEX INDEX ERASES LOSS; GAINS 0.3% IN MUMBAI
  • *INDIA'S NSE SAYS `LOOKING INTO' THE FREAK TRADE

On The USD Reaction To Tomorrow's Payroll Report


The new-normal bizarro world in which we live and trade requires a new set of un-common-sensical thinking to succeed. As we noted earlier, perception is far more important than reality (at least in the short- to medium-term), and tomorrow's payroll report could well be the most egregious example of this yet. Citi's Steven Englander agrees, noting that it seems very possible that the focus will be on the unemployment rate (UR), because of its political importance, rather than the non-farm-payroll (NFP) change, despite its greater economic importance. Given the high correlation to equity (risk) price movements and the focus of market movements likely being driven by the unemployment rate - the question becomes to what degree political factors will offset the negatives typically associated with economic slowing - and what the USD reaction will be to various ranges of NFP and UR.

Naval Update: T-Minus One Week Until Arabian Sea Destination Reached


The news surrounding the Middle East, particularly Iran and Syria, may come and go in waves, but for the most part it is loud political grandstanding, jawboning and largely noise. Or rather, it will be noise until these two catalytic events occur: the third US Aircraft carrier (CVN-74 Stennis) and the second big deck amphibious warfare ship (LHA-5 Peleliu), both dispatched as of several weeks ago with a destination the 5th US Fleet headquartered in Bahrain, reach their target - the Arabian Sea, located by the Straits of Hormuz and right next to Iran. As the following naval update map from Stratfor shows, both are now within a week of reaching their destination: conveniently so with at least two weeks to go until the presidential election. Needless to say, once on location, the naval and airborne support for any offensive operation, especially those launched during new moon cycles, will be simply suffocating.

The War Between Credit And Resources

The Federal Reserve is probably not ready to take the aggressive plunge into Nominal GDP Targeting, but it likely will. But if you think these measures are desperate, we have only just begun to push energy and financial systems beyond their capability. The launch of QE3 (and similar measures by the European central bank (ECB) in Europe) is like the crack! of a starting-gun to human psychology that carries the following, urgent message: Hey, humans go get those resources quickly, before someone else does! Indeed, the most powerful lever for monetary policy remains our capacity for social competition. The open-ended promise to pursue a faster rate of growth at the expense of inflation, mal-investment, bubbles, and the environment places a new and fast pressure on human economies to perform.

QE∞, False Flags, Bank Runs, Price Controls & Martial Law in America – Greg Mannarino

Author & Blogger Greg Mannarino joins us to talk about the END GAME. Greg warns that “we are literally at the financial, global, economic end game.” And the result will likely be world government and the permanent end of our Liberty. Our situation could not be more dire, although you’ve heard others sound the alarm about the “end of America” – listen to this gripping interview and consider it very carefully. This is a red alert warning. 

 

Mountain House Beef Stroganoff (Google Affiliate Ad) 

 

The Connection Between White House Cyber Attacks and Global Reserve Currency 

According to an anonymous White House official that spoke to mainstream media, yet acknowledged that they were not authorized to speak about the subject, referred to an attempt to hack into the executive branch’s computer system through an unclassified network. No data were removed, proving that this was not an actual hack. The nameless official said that the experiment was a “spear-phishing”.

Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com



Food Prices Jump to Six-Month High as Dairy Costs Rise

by Rudy Ruitenberg, Bloomberg:

World food prices rose in September to the highest in six months as dairy and meat producers passed on higher feed costs to consumers, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said.
An index of 55 food items tracked by the FAO rose to 215.8 points from a restated 212.8 points in August, the Rome-based agency reported on its website today. Dairy costs jumped the most in more than two years.
Livestock breeders and dairy farmers are passing on the higher cost of feed, after grain prices jumped in June and July, according to Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist at the FAO in the Italian capital. Higher prices don’t mean a food crisis is imminent, he said today by phone.
Read More @ Bloomberg


Reality Check: The Real Numbers Behind Romney and Obama’s Deficit Plans

from BenSwannRealityCheck:

Ben Swann Reality Check breaks down the answers or lack thereof of President Obama and Mitt Romney on the issue of cutting spending and the deficit Presidential debate Number 1


Fed Easing Has Little Impact So Far: Out of Bullets?

by Jeff Cox, CNBC:

The Federal Reserve’s latest easing program may be nicknamed “QE Infinity” on Wall Street, but it’s having a very limited effect on the markets and economy so far.
Stocks have been flat to slightly lower since the central bank announced the third round of its quantitative easing program — QE3 — while economists remain pessimistic that it will achieve its stated goal of bringing down the unemployment rate.
Consequently, sentiment is beginning to build that the Fed may be running out of bullets.
“We’ve been range-bound as everyone digests the information,” said Robert Laura, president of Synergos Financial Group in Brighton, Mich. “There’s nothing that’s going to take us any higher. The headwinds out there are too large for QE to overcome.”
Read More @ CNBC


‘Turkey can’t afford full-scale war with Syria’

from RussiaToday:




Total Embargo: West Aiming For Total Asset Freeze of Iranian Central Bank Assets Amid Currency Crisis

from Silver Vigilante:
Greasing the gears of global governance, both the US and Europe are acting in a coordinated manner to ensure the acceleration of the Iranian rial’s current plunge and drain the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves, according to Obama administration officials, the US Congress and European Union. The sanctions campaign has kicked into high gear and will begin to resemble the sanctions the US put on Iraq over decades, which led to the starvation of millions. The first techniques of the new phase of sanctions will be detailed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on October 15, and is expected to include a ban on Iranian natural-gas exports and tighter restriction on transactions with the central bank in Tehran, if not an all-out boycott.
Other banks are also to be targeted into the new financial war led by Washington and Brussels as a means of pressuring Supreme Leader Ayatolla Ali Khamenei to cease his country’s nuclear program. The US and EU are also mulling over the technique of imposing a de facto trade embargo early in 2013.
Read More @ Silver Vigilante

Who really won last night’s Presidential debate? Goldman Sachs

by Mike Adams, Natural News:

Political theater is so amusing these days that it deserves some comment. All across the internet, people are asking, “Who won last night’s presidential debate?” The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney won the debate and that Obama turned in a very poor performance, but even that’s not the real story. The correct answer is that Goldman Sachs won the debate. And why? Because both candidates are beholden to Wall Street interests and the global banksters who now influence nearly everything that happens at the highest levels of government.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com


Report: Turkey Demands US Impose No Fly Zone Over Syria

Washington gives green light for Turkey’s de facto declaration of war
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has asked the United States to impose an immediate “no fly zone” over areas of Syria in the aftermath of a mortar attack which killed five Turkish civilians, according to a report by Israeli intelligence outfit DebkaFile.
Following the attack, which evidence suggests was actually carried out by FSA rebels and not Syrian forces, Erdogan “Asked Washington….whether the Syrian attack would serve as the pretext for imposing a no-fly zone over northern and central Syria with US Air Force participation,” according to the report.
Read More @ InfoWars.com


Why Romney & Obama Won’t Debate Gary Johnson

from TheAlexJonesChannel:

Alex welcomes former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 election Gary Johnson to discuss his platform, his exclusion from last night’s debate and where he sees America headed if one of the two major party candidates is elected.


Gary Johnson On Presidential the “Debate”

from RonPaulCC2012 :



QE3 could push gold up to $2,400/oz

Quantitative easing could cause a rally in the gold price, with the precious metal hitting $2,400/oz by next summer.
by Emma Wall, The Telegraph:
Gold could hit an all-time high of $2,400 by next summer, driven up by a third round of quantitative easing in the US. The first round of QE in February 2009 caused the gold price to increase rapidly from a base of $900/oz – from which it has never looked back.
BlackRock fund manager Evy Hambro who invests in the precious metal and gold equities, predicted that QE3 could result in the gold price hitting US$2,400/oz by the middle of next summer.
In his gold report this week he said: “The gold chart has turned decidedly bullish with the 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day moving average. The last time this happened was in February 2009, which interestingly was shortly after the implementation of QE1. Then, gold was $900/oz and never looked back. Should we witness a similar rally, prices would be taken to $2,400/oz by midsummer next year – and $1,760/oz would be the new floor.”
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk


Military Police Used for Crowd Control in South Carolina

by Kurt Nimmo, InfoWars:
As part of the expanding effort to merge police and military operations – and make Posse Comitatus irrelevant – police in Columbia, South Carolina, will use military police to control revelers after a football game this weekend.
“Columbia police are preparing for the big crowds expected after the Georgia-South Carolina football game Saturday night,” WISTV reports. “Officials say campus police, Richland County sheriff’s deputies, the South Carolina Highway Patrol and Fort Jackson’s military police will help with crowd control after the game.”
In addition to the military, officialdom in Columbia plan to establish Fourth Amendment busting DUI checkpoints, barricades, and an observation tower “to keep the crowd under control” and “ensure order.”
As Brandon Tuberville writes for Activist Post, the effort is “nothing more than a conditioning exercise designed to acclimate the American people to the sight of US Military troops acting as police and to see it as an ordinary event.”
Read More @ InfoWars.com


Gerald Celente ~ Psychopaths Run The Planet

from RonPaulCC2012 :




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity needs no more numbers. QE4, 5 and 6 will not come labeled as so.
I see it lasting for no less than three to five years with a month off here and there just to drive markets nuts.

IMF Chief Economist Says Crisis Will Last a Decade Published: Wednesday, 3 Oct 2012 | 6:45 AM ET
By: Reuters

The world economy will take at least 10 years to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International Monetary Fund’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview published on Wednesday.
Blanchard told Hungarian website Portfolio.hu, in an interview conducted on September 18, that Germany would have to accept higher inflation and a real strengthening of its purchasing power as part of the solution to Europe’s problems.
But even though the focus was on Europe’s troubles now, he said, the United States also had a fiscal problem which it had to resolve.
"It’s not yet a lost decade… But it will surely take at least a decade from the beginning of the crisis for the world economy to get back to decent shape," Blanchard said.
"Japan is facing a very difficult fiscal adjustment too, one which will take decades to solve. China has probably taken care of its asset boom but has slower growth than before, but we do not forecast any really hard landing," he added.
Blanchard said that adjustment in the euro zone required a decrease in prices in the bloc’s indebted southern half and a rise in core countries.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The euro will trade now into the $1.34 to $1.35 JES
1.30174 +0.00934 (+0.72%)
2012-10-04 16:22:39, 0 MIN DELAY


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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

From today’s Dow Theory Letters…

"Ultimately, the whole strategy will collapse the purchasing power of the dollar. And the various fiat currencies will have lost all their purchasing power.
When will that happen?
It’s happening now — but slowly. "QE to infinity" was a big step towards it happening. "


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Currency induced cost push inflation, a tool of war, is happening now in Iran.
As the Iranian currency collapses, all imported goods go ballistic in cost. This is the ultimate simplification of what is coming but it is offered for your understanding of the concept.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000120113



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you think that Forbes writer reads JSMineset?
Yes, a re-invention of a sort of gold standard has a better chance of starting in China, not the USA, as I told you. You know that I know the end before the beginning in financial matters.
Read the book "Boom" written in the early 90s that shows the world of the 2000s perfectly.
"To get rich is glorious," is a motto of the loyal Maoist country, China, that no western economist or money manager outside of Monty Guild and Joseph Kahama understands. To understand China you have to know nothing whatsoever has changed. To apply economic analysis common to the Western world to China is a total waste of time. As a result, China Bashers have to be the loudest voices since the late 90s. They were wrong then, and wrong again today.

Signs Of The Gold Standard Emerging In China? 10/01/2012 @ 4:21PM
As noted in last week’s column about the rising recognition by authorities in Germany about the virtues of gold, the gold standard is receiving impressive new recognition internationally. The GOP plank calling for a commission to study “possible ways to set a fixed value for the dollar” — with an unmistakable nod to gold — is the most prominent element of the 2012 GOP platform still being heard to “reverberate around the world.” Meanwhile, it continues to gain impressive momentum in the United States.
CNN’s Kevin Voigt writes, in The China Post, “Currencies: Re-evaluating the ghost of gold:”
“One platform of the recent U.S. Republican National Convention that, ultimately, could reverberate around the world is a plan to study a possible return of the U.S. to the gold standard. While it was perceived as a move to appease the party’s extreme right wing, economists like Mundell think the world needs a limited return to the gold standard.”
This is by no means an isolated blip on the economic radar screen of China watchers.  As Christopher Potter, president of Northern Border Capital Management, so astutely observed in a column entitled China’s Preparing for the End Game — Are We Paying Attention, published in The Lehrman Institute’s TheGoldStandardNow.org — which Potter advises (and this columnist professionally edits):
China is … increasing its monetary gold reserves at an alarming rate.  Five years ago China surpassed the US in gold production and five years from now it will own more gold than the US Federal government.
China is preparing for a world beyond the inconvertible paper dollar, a world in which the renminbi, buttressed by gold, becomes the dominant reserve currency.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A trickle will become a torrent, soon

Atwater, California declares fiscal emergency
OAKLAND, California (Reuters) – The city council of Atwater, California approved a fiscal emergency declaration on Wednesday night, a move that could put the city of 28,000 on the path to becoming the fourth city in the most populous U.S. state to declare bankruptcy this year.
California requires its local governments to try to enter talks with their creditors to avert bankruptcy filings, but municipalities may declare fiscal emergencies to circumvent the law and file for bankruptcy.
Municipal debt market analysts are keeping a close eye on the finances of local governments in California out of concern that some could use fiscal emergency declarations as a way to speed Chapter 9 filings to attempt to shed financial obligations.
San Bernardino, California’s city council in July authorized a bankruptcy filing after declaring a fiscal emergency. The city of 210,000 residents 65 miles east of Los Angeles, filed for bankruptcy on August 1.
By contrast, Stockton, a city of 300,000 located about 62 miles to the northwest of Atwater, became California’s first city to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection this year after 90 days of inconclusive mediation with its creditors.
More…

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Jim,
Gold and stocks are not doing that well today despite a big drop in the buck.  Clearly weakness in the buck no longer levitates markets as it did when asset prices were lower.
Commercials are hugely short both gold and stocks and these tend to move in the same direction.
CIGA George

George,
If you watch too closely you will miss the big picture and the move to $3500. Today means zero in the grand scheme of things.
Jim

Hi Jim,
Richard Russell says to be out of all common stock and to hold gold.  Is that wise, as money printing is for now floating all boats including stocks?
I am somewhat inclined to take profits on blue chips that have done really well, but I keep holding and they keep rising. Trailing stops are of course a good answer.  How much higher can free money float this equity boat before reality sets in?
CIGA David

Dear Dr. David,
Trailing stops are your answer. When currency induced cost push inflation comes, the Dow could go to 30,000.
Regards,
Jim




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