We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.
NFP Prints 114K, On Top Of Expectations Of 115K; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 7.8% On Expectations Of 8.2%
Complete preelection "massaging" farce.
Obama Mission Accomplished?
If yesterday was the Romney-rally, is today going to be the Obama-rally?
Even The Elite Are Conspiracy Wonks Now
There was a time when only fringe blogs and digital dickweeds would suggest the BLS data was anything but entirely above board. That time has ended!Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers
— Jack Welch (@jack_welch) October 5, 2012
Trading Halted (Again) On All NYSE Liffe Commodities
For the second time this week, NYSE Liffe has halted all London Commodities, Paris Commodities, and London Universal Stock Futures trading - due to a 'technical issue'. Simply remarkable...
The Trends Clearly Show The Worm Has Turned In The Labor Market
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
For anyone not completely incapacitated by election year rhetoric and/or
politics, please consider the following: 2010-2012 economic recovery has
produced far fewer jobs than 2004-2006 (chart 1). The 2003-2007 economic
recovery was considered extremely weak. The US driven by generations of
excessive spending, ever-increasing socialism, and uncompetitive...
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20 Percent Downside Risk
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 7 hours ago
I just want to have a lot of cash because I think that within the next six
to nine months we can buy just about anything 20 percent lower than it is
now. - *in CNBC *
*
*Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
ETF (EEM)
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Both Candidates Are Clueless
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 17 hours ago
"It's worse than clueless, because they think they know what they're
doing.. and so they are dangerous! If they were just clueless and looked
out the window, we wouldn't have a problem, but they think they have the
solution - but their solutions are what's making the situation worse..." - *in
CNBC *
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*Goldman Sees Stock Plunge Then Surge
Goldman's
equity strategist David Kostin has been very quiet for the past year,
having not budged on his 2012 year end S&P target of 1250 since
late 2011. Today, he finally released a revised forecast, one that
curious still leaves the year end forecast unchanged at a level over
200 points lower in the S&P cash, and thus assuming a ~15% decline.
The reason: the same fiscal cliff (which would otherwise deduct 5% in
GDP growth) and debt ceiling debate we have warned will get the same
market treatment as it did in August of 2011 when the only catalyst was
a 15% S&P plunge and a downgrade of the US credit rating. However,
one the fiscal situation is fixed, Kostin sees only upside, with a 6
month target of 1450 ("We raise our medium-term fair value estimates
for the S&P 500 in response to openended quantitative easing (QE)
announced by the Fed."), and a year end S&P target of 1575,
calculated by applying a 13.9 multiple to the firm's EPS forecast of
114. Of course, this being bizarro Goldman Sachs it means expect a
continued surge into year end, then prolonged fizzle into the new year.
Why? Because there is not a snowball's chance in hell the consolidated
S&P earnings can grow at this rate, especially not if the Fiscal
Cliff compromise is one that does take away more than 1% of GDP thus
offsetting all the "benefit" from QE. Simply said, companies who have
already eliminated all the fat, and most of the muscle, and are desperate for revenue growth to generate incremental EPS increase, have not invested in CapEx at nearly the rate needed to maintain revenue growth,
having dumped all the cash instead in such short-sighted initiatives
as dividends and buybacks. Also, recalling that revenues are now
outright declining on a year over year basis, and one can see why
anyone assuming a 14% increase in earnings in one year, is merely doing
all they can to make the work of their flow desk easier.Please Donate
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50-Day Moving-Average SNAAPL
AAPL
is down 1.5% and once again testing its 50DMA. Now trading the range of
Tuesday's closing ramp-fest and below its closing VWAP... BTFD?Europe Is Fixed?
Italy's
FTSEMIB is up 5% this week, Spain's IBEX +3%, Portuguese government
bond spreads are 82bps lower, and EURUSD is 1.25% higher this week -
all biggest bull moves in 6 weeks. It would appear
that all is well and Europe is saved - who knew? Credit markets are
running tighter in a hurry with subordinated financials and XOver
leading the way (as uber-high-beta bets are on) and all European
financial and corporate credit indices at post-roll tights (lowest risk
in 3 weeks). FYI - European bank senior and subordinated credit risk is
now at its lowest in a year - and almost 40% lower than its post-LTRO
(remember the encumbrance and deposit outflows) highs. EURUSD is close
to multi-year highs relative to swap-spreads - but Europe is fixed so
that's ok (especially with Merkel popping over to Athens?). One last thing - the majority of all this strength occurred today.Amplats Refuses To Follow In Lonmin's Footsteps, Fires 12,000 Striking South African Workers
Several weeks ago, the platinum producing company that started it all (after police killed 34 of its striking workers at its Marikana South African mine) Lonmin, conceded and agreed to a 22% wage hike. In doing so it once again proved that in game theory he who defects first, defects best. Shortly thereafter the strike spread to all other South African mining industries, and has even spilled over into the trucking industry, whose ongoing strike has crippled the country and threatens to paralyze all commerce. The only reason for the continued worker boldness: Lonmin folding to worker demands, in the process empowering all other workers in the African country to demand equitable treatment. Which is why today's news that that "other" platinum miner in South Africa has decided to go the opposite route, and instead of yielding to worker demands for a raise, has gone and fired 12,000 workers taking part in a three-week strike. How this dramatic shift in the balance of power affects the already struggling country, and its mining sector remains to be seen. However, if recent events are any indication, he doubt local workers will just put down their banners and go back to work as per the old status quo. In the meantime, look for ever less platinum,and gold, to be produced by this mining powerhouse.Meanwhile, In Bahrain...
It
appears social unrest is resurgent on the streets of Bahrain once
again. Following the funeral procession earlier in the week (of a young
boy who died in earlier street battles with police), protesters are
once again gathering and marching to the Pearl Roundabout. Police are
active with tear gas and fires are breaking out... via Twitter: #Bahrain is in chaos.Goldman's NFP Postmortem
The fact-digging continues, this time out out of Goldman, which has some less than stellar words about what the superficial consensus says was a strong number. Then again, Goldman's agenda is pure goldilocks: an economy that is not too strong and just right for another $2 trillion of QEternity at a minimum. Remember: if jobs were to really surge someone might ask Bernanke if when he will stop his $85 billion/month flow program aka QE3.Poor Athens; The Gods Flee Mt. Olympus
The Greeks only assume the mantle of serfdom to keep the pipeline of capital flowing.
They have damaged their national psyche in the process and caused undue
pain for their citizens but it must seem simpler, to the elite of
Greece, to beg rather than go back to work. The problem for Europe now
is that the amount of money is so large and the pain will be so great that they wince at the consequences of their misbegotten strategy.
Europe provided money, demanded austerity, and kept the charade in play
far longer than good sense would dictate. Now, however, I would assert;
the tragedy is about to end and the farce about to begin.An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?
Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:- Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
- Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)
Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?
Payrolls 'Miss' In September On Average
We've discused how to forecast it, how to trade it, and its politicial implications, so just to tie it all up in a bow, here are the 'surprise' factors for September's NFP over the last 14 years - mostly a miss!
Frontrunning: October 5
- Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
- EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
- Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
- Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
- Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
- Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
- BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
- Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
- Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
- Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
- Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
- Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)
Turkey & Syria Clash And Asians Take A Shine To Silver
Precious metals have all run up with the recent loose money policies enacted by various governments. Clearly the market darling of late is silver which is now gaining favour in Asia for its value appeal. Spot silver traded in New York has risen by 27% since the end of June, while the price of spot gold has increased by a meek 12%. Analysts say future Indian demand is key for silver’s price to climb. Futures contracts for silver at India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, rocketed 30% in September compared with July, while volumes fell by 10% for gold futures contracts over the same period. Indian rupee weakness sent gold prices in rupees to an all time high this year, while silver never exceeded the record it hit last April. Rupee-denominated silver is currently being quoted around 20% below the record. Indian investors have ceased purchasing because the 2 weeks ending Oct. 15th is regarded as inauspicious. The buying will commence and peak during the week ahead of the Hindu festival of Diwali on November 13th. In China, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures were up 29% at the end of September verses the end of June, while gold climbed 13%, according to data from the exchange's website.Today’s Items:
Syria, in an 18-month-old civil war,
starts lobbing artillery shells into Turkey? If one seriously believes
that the Syrian government is attacking a NATO country, then they need
to stop drinking the Kool-aid.
Seriously, one would have to be brain dead not to see the what is
really happening in Syria. To make a long story short, the strategic
war for natural resources, like oil, to back up currencies, like the dollar, wages on.
In some good news, for Europeans, after a
French study linked Mosanto GM Corn to cancer, a Europe-wide ban on both
the cultivation and import of the GM corn is being urged. The French
study is unique because it was tested over a two year period which is a
longer period than most studies of this kind. Needless to say, all
GM foods need to be banned until proper, unbiased, long-term testing can
be done.
The Fed’s QE Infinity program has had
limited effect on markets and the economy so far. Stocks have been
relatively flat since the announcement and there is talk of the next round of money printing before the end of 2012.
Of course, QE3 was not designed to really help the economy, but to take
over bank owned mortgages instead. Owning so much property will
allow the Fed to, someday, back the Dollar with land – since there is no
gold to back it up.
Despite gold having relatively sideways
price actions, due to paper manipulation, Central Banks and the wealthy
are scooping up gold by the ton because they know the dollar’s days, as
printing continues, are numbered. At some point, the ability for
people to easily obtain gold will be over. Silver, for industrial reasons, has the same future; therefore, after preparing, keep stacking physical.
Well, it should not be surprising that CNN is paid to give foreign dictators favorable coverage. Just think of CNN’s Iraqi cover-up
and that should allow one to put the pieces together. Of course, if
one believes that CNN is the only one paid off, then stop drinking the
Kool-aid. Couple that with the fact that many mainstream media
stories are scripted by the White House and one can only conclude: Propaganda.
Is it any wonder that the US main stream media may be the best
paid-off, non-informative, non-news, propaganda outlet in the world?
Gas prices, after problems at California
refineries, have gone up as much as 73 cents. There are 144 operable
petroleum refineries in the US and the newest refinery began operating in 1977.
That is 35 years of renovations and improvements! Or, put it
another way, even with adequate upkeep, would you want to still be
driving a 1977 car, on a daily basis, today? Perhaps, the closing gas stations may help people understand what is really going on.
A TSA agent pleaded guilty for stealing
$520 from a man who complained about the TSA’s invasive pat down
procedure. The TSA agent stated the theft was a punishment for the
man’s lack of obedience. Another proud moment for the SS err… TSA.
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