Friday, March 4, 2016

Stocks Surge On Biggest Bear Market Short-Squeeze Since Nov 2008

An Establishment In Panic

If Republican leaders wish to be regarded as moral, every one of them must renounce Trump, even if it means destroying their party, exclaims The Washington Post. That the Beltway elites, whose voice is the Post, hate and fear Trump is not only undeniable, it is understandable. Come the ides of March, the GOP is going to be in need of its uniters and its statesmen. But today, all Republicans should ask themselves: Are these folks coming out in droves to vote Republican really the bigoted, hateful and authoritarian people of the Post’s depiction?

Weekend Reading: Is The Bear Market Over Already?

The time to buy the dip, however, has passed: “I am bearish. There are just wiggles and jiggles in the markets.

HY Credit Spreads Have Never Been This High Outside Of A Recession

"We are in the bottom of the 8th or 9th inning, and unless the Fed steps in to add liquidity to the market, which seems unlikely, I don’t expect extra innings... there is no question that the bubble will burst, resulting in a mini or not-so-mini credit crisis."

Gallup: "The Amount Of Debt Americans Carry Is Staggering And Grows Every Day"

"The amount of debt Americans carry is staggering and grows every day.... These data suggest that a significant portion of every generation is buried under a mountain of several different kinds of consumer debt. Though sizable slices of each generation carry no debt, the sheer magnitude of how much Americans with debt do owe is a cause for concern."

The Last Time The Market Was This Overbought, This Happened

Stocks Tumble After Fed Plans Too-Big-To-Fail Bank Counterparty Risk Cap

US financials are tumbling after The Fed proposed a rule that would limit banks with $500 bln or more of assets from having net credit exposure to a “major counterparty” in excess of 15% of the lender’s tier 1 capital. Bloomberg reports that The Fed's governors plan to vote today on the proposal. The implications of this are significant in that it will force some banks to unwind exposures and delever against one another (most notably with potential affect the repo market which governs much of the liquidity transmission mechanisms). Guggenheim's Jaret Seiberg warns the proposal is likely to be "stringent," though less onerous than the Dec 2011 proposal... which Goldman Sachs more specifically warned that it could destroy 300,000 jobs.

Jim Rogers: There's A 100% Probability Of A U.S. Recession Within A Year

Legendary billionaire investor Jim Rogers is certain that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next 12 months. During an interview on BloombergTV, he explained why he had covered his position in the Japanese yen, saying that the nation is "printing a lot" of the currency. Rogers also warned that there is a "100 percent" probability of a recession in the U.S. within a year, and with debt levels very high across the nation, this is a grave concern.

The Only Chart That Matters For The Fed In March

"Uncertainty" exploded in January for The Fed, and after today's "great" (surging job gains) and "terrible" (plunging wages) jobs data (as well as surging current inflation and plunging inflation expectations), we can only imagine Yellen will be even more confused at March's meeting.

German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash

This is officially an all-out revolution of the financial system where banks are now actively rebelling against the central bank. In a stunningly real rebuttal of Europe's negative interest rate policy, German newspaper Der Spiegel reported yesterday that the Bavarian Banking Association has recommended that its member banks start stockpiling PHYSICAL CASH.

Monsanto Is Suing California For Telling People The Truth About Its Chemicals

Should Monsanto be victorious in this court battle, it would represent a major defeat for the people’s right to know when they could be harmed. Worse, it would be a victory for an already aggressively arrogant industry bent on profit at any and every cost.

NATO Accuses Russia Of "Weaponizing Refugees" To "Break Europe"

“Do not come to Europe. Do not believe the smugglers. Do not risk your lives and your money. It is all for nothing.”

BlackRock Suspends ETF Issuance Due To "Surging Demand For Gold"

BlackRock's Gold ETF (IAU) has seen fund inflows every day in 2016 (no outflows at all) and with the stock trading above its NAV for most of the year, the world's largest asset manager has made a significant decision: It has suspended issuance of Gold Trust shares due to "surging demand for gold." It appears the huge demand for physical gold (and lack of supply) is finally catching up with the manipulation of paper prices.

Why We're Ungovernable: The "Unprotected" Push Back

The rise of Donald Trump (and similar iconoclasts in other countries) is due to the gradual division of society into the protected - that is, people who make the rules and therefore benefit from them - and the unprotected, who don’t make the rules and end up getting screwed. The latter have finally figured this out and have stopped supporting the former.

U.S. Has Too Much Oil. So Why Are Imports Rising?

Now the real question is with U.S. production declining and inventories at record levels, why are refiners still importing at such heights?

The Reason For Copper's Dramatic Surge: Chinese Copper Inventories Hit Record

In the aftermath of China's record credit creation spree, a question that emerged is what China is spending all this newly created money on. One answer emerged overnight when Bloomberg reported that after tumbling in the first half of 2015, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had been steadily rising, and in the most recent week soared by 11% to an all time high of 305,106 tons.

US Oil Rig Count Drops Below 400 For The First Time Since 2009

For the 11th week in a row, US oil rig counts declined (down 8 this week to 392). This is the first drop below 400 oil rigs since Dec 2009. Perhaps even more stunning, the total US rig count dropped to 489 rigs last week. 1 above the all-time record low 488 seen in April 1999.

The Best And Worst Performing Hedge Funds In 2016: All Hail The "Tulip Trend Fund"

With the S&P 500 set to go green for the year, the best and worst performing hedge funds of the year demonstrate that while the bulk of the marquee names continue to substantially underperfom the broader market, with Tiger, Pershing Square, Glenview and Trian standing out, there are quite a few names that have generated positive results YTD.

Silver Eagles Flying High!

from The Daily Coin:

Silver eagles are flying high! The U.S. Mint reports the first two months of 2016 indicates an annualized amount of American Silver Eagles between 55 and 60 MILLION ounces!! You read that right – 55 to 60 MILLION. We can only hope the U.S. Mint decides to continue rationing the amount of ounces released throughout 2016!!
To put this into proper perspective the YEARS between 1986 and 2007 – 21 years in total – the U.S. Mint produced fewer American Silver Eagles for the entire YEAR than the U.S. Mint has produced and released in the first two MONTHS of 2016.
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Breakout or Fakeout?

from TF Metals Report:

That’s the big question today? There’s all sorts of lousy economic news out there, which is weakening the dollar and USDJPY, which in turn is driving the metals higher. So, is this a breakout to new highs or just another fakeout before a massive Gold cartel raid?
And that’s the dilemma this morning. For the past two weeks, I’ve been giving you that chart with the trendline that goes back to New Year’s Eve. This line was pressing up against what was clearly a Cartel-painted cap. And now today…the day before the BLSBS…a BLSBS that will be used for the next 10 days to rationalize/justify whatever Mother Fellen announces on March 16…prices break to the UPside. Not only is gold back above $1250, but silver is back above it’s 200-day MA, too. See here:
Read More…

Keep calm and carry on

by Alasdair Macleod, Gold Money:

It may be too early to say the correction in precious metal prices, which followed an impressive run-up that ended on 11th February, is over, but gold’s performance this week has been bullish.
On two occasions at least, attempts by market-makers to shake speculators out of long positions failed, only generating more buying on the dip.
The most notable instance was Sunday night US-hours, which is Monday trading in Asian time zones. There are few natural dealers in Comex/Globex futures in that time, so the move was almost certainly orchestrated by professional dealers with short books, seeking maximum impact on the gold price.
Read More

Interview: What Is Driving All Currencies Lower Against Gold?

by Mark O’Byrne, Gold Core:

Gold has surged another 4% this week to bring year to date gains to 20% in dollar terms, 19% in euro terms and 24% in sterling terms. We were interviewed by yesterday afternoon and looked at what is currently driving gold prices higher in all currencies.
The sharp rise of gold prices and whether it is sustainable was considered. As was the British economy in the run up to Brexit referendum and the vulnerability of sterling due to the second largest current account deficit in the UK’s post war history and London’s property bubble.
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