Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Fed Lack Of Confidence Sends WTI Crude To $33 Handle Even As Dollar Dumps

Fed Mouthpiece Reads "Liftoff" Tea Leaves

"Though the decision to raise rates was unanimous, some officials expressed concern about lingering low inflation and the stifling effects on the U.S. economy of a strong U.S. dollar and slow growth overseas."

Stocks Stable Post-Fed Despite VIX Flash-Crash

If history is any guide - the mysterious flash crash "signal" that we have seen yet again in VIX suggests stocks rally and VIX tumbles into the close today...

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: "Buy Gold" Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming

As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year's volatility are out with their forecast for 2016. It's simple - Sell Stocks, Buy Gold... expect a Fed u-turn.  

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Rate Hike Decision Was Not Unanimous, Fear Market Reaction

Since The December 16th FOMC decision to hike rates, Gold is up over 2%, Bonds up 1%, and stocks down 3% suggesting the word "error" with regard Fed policy. As The FOMC Minutes are released, traders anticipate confident-hawkishness and a focus on ignoring current data in favor of preferring their own confident outlook:
January's meeting has negligible probabilities for a rate move but March has 45% chance of a hike and 3% chance of a cut. The apparent unanimity of December's decision appears questionable given the Minutes suggestions of some dissent.
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1983.25, 10Y 2.19%, Gold $1094, EUR 1.0755, WTI $34.05

Yes, The ECB Chief Economist Really Said It: "If You Print Enough Money, You Always Get Inflation. Always."

And with that we can finally close the book on slippery central bank semantics on what precisely it is that they do, and what it is they plan to achieve.

Just Out From Evercore ISI: "Sell All Rallies Down To 1900"

"With the macro backdrop more vulnerable today than at any time since the financial crisis, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ still near all-time highs, we anticipate a downside move to 1900 on the S&P within the first two months of the year. We reiterate our view that Crude and Energy remain structurally broken and possess significant downside from current levels which will only agitate and exacerbate the ongoing collapse."

Eyewitness Account Of The "Monstrous" Migrant Attacks In Germany: "It's Like Civil War"

"These people that we welcomed just three months ago with teddy bears and water bottles ... started shooting at the cathedral dome and started shooting at police. Well seasoned police officers then confessed to me that they never saw something like this in their entire lives."

DVA Is Dead: Banks Will No Longer "Profit" From Collapsing

The debt valuation adjustment, or DVA, will no longer be included in net income, according to revisions to the fair-value measurement standard published by the Financial Accounting Standards Board Tuesday.  The DVA rule increased net income when a bank’s bonds tanked, on the theory that the firm could buy back its bonds at a lower price and benefit from the decline in value.

Another Rung In The Bull Market Yanked Out

The relative strength of the consumer discretionary sector versus consumer staples had been a positive for stocks – not anymore.

China Has A "Colossal Credit Bubble" And No One Knows How It Will Unwind, Marc Faber Warns

"We had a hard landing in the stock market already. We had a hard landing in commodities. [So yes], we could have a hard landing in the economy. China has a colossal credit bubble and no one knows how it's going to unwind."

10 Key Energy Trends To Watch For In 2016

Energy investors got clobbered in 2015, and are hoping for things to turn positive as we head into the New Year. What can we expect in 2016? Here is a rundown of some key trends to watch for...

A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"

Just when you thought it was safe to go short: "We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market."

A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia

Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.

"America Is A Gang Of Cruel Robbers": North Korea Boasts Of "Successful" Nuke Test As Skeptics Laugh

WTI Crude Plunges To $34 Handle After Record Gasoline Inventory Build

Following last night's API-reported large draw in overall crude inventories (year-end and exports driven), DOE reports a 5.09mm draw (more than expectations of a 4.1mm draw but less than API's 5.6mm draw). However, Cushing inventories rose for the 9th week in a row (+917k) and more troubling for the future is gasoline inventories soared 10.58mm barrels - an all-time record (and distillates rose 6.31mm barrels). Crude prices already gave up their API gains and are tumbling back below $35 on this build news.

Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11

Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.

US Factory Orders Deep In Recession - Tumble YoY For 13th Month In A Row

US factory orders have never dropped this far for so long without the US economy overall being in recession. November's 4.2% YoY drop is the 13th consecutive monthly drop. Revistions to durable goods data shows a 1% drop in new orders ex-defense in November after rising 1.4% in October.. and as a reminder, this data was buoyed by a 46.9% surge in defense aircraft and parts orders to all-time highs. Traders better hope for moar war or the reality of the economy will peak out from behind the military-industrial complex veil.

Manufacturing Leads, Services Follow: ISM Collapses To Weakest Since March 2014 As "Pace Of Hiring" Slows

As goes US manufacturing, so goes US services. In a narrative-crushing print, US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. Output and New business growth slumped to 11-month lows, optimism dropped, and input cost inflation continued to moderate as "suggests the pace of hiring has slowed since earlier in the year as businesses have become more cautious." Then, confirming  this plunge, ISM Services printed 55.3 - its lowest since March 2014 as unadjusted new orders collapsed to their lowest since February 2014.

Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History

All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.

Turkey Admits Act Of War Against Russian Bomber

from The Sleuth Journal:

On November 24, a Turkish Lockheed Martin-produced F-16 warplane willfully targeted and downed a Russian Su-24 bomber in Syria airspace.
At the time, Ankara was caught red-handed lying, claiming it violated Turkish airspace. The action was a clear act of war – complicit with Washington, ordered by Erdogan after getting Pentagon permission. It was no accident.
Moscow informs Washington of its daily Syrian sortie flight paths – to avoid accidental US/Russian confrontation in the same airspace.
Read More

Congress Is About To Take An Ax To Obamacare In A HUGE Way He’ll Despise

from Western Journalism:

America’s long-simmering revolt against Obamacare will move into a new phase Tuesday as the Republican-led Congress is poised to take action to fulfill its 2010 pledge to repeal and replace the controversial health care law.
“We owe it to the American people to take our best shot at repealing Obamacare, and that’s what we’ll do,” Rep. Vicky Hartzler, R-Mo., said Saturday. “As a result, President Obama will soon have a choice: Does he support the people and women’s health, or does he support Washington mandates and tax dollars going to Planned Parenthood?”
Read More


by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
Any question about the role Amazon stock plays in helping the Fed/US Government prop up the S&P 500? [See the chart to the left]
The more time I spend researching and observing AMZN, the more I”m convinced that it’s the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the stock market.
Throughout its 25-year history as a public stock, AMZN has delivered a cumulative total of $1.9 billion in net income to shareholders. Jeff Bezos made $16 billion on AMZN stock in 2014. Here’s the details:  Bezos’ Ponzi Scheme
Here’s what’s behind Bezos’ drive to transfer as much money from the stock market to his bank account: Bezos Has Amassed A $59 Billion Fortune – And Wants More. If you read through that article you’ll get a sense of what drives Bezos and how he operates.
Read More

Islamic State ‘loses 40% of territory in Iraq’

by AWR Hawkins, BBC:
Islamic State (IS) has lost 40% of the territory it once controlled in Iraq, a spokesman for the US-led coalition battling the jihadist group says.
Col Steve Warren told reporters that IS was “on the defensive”, and had “not gained one inch in Iraq since May”.
It had also been driven out of 20% of its territory in Syria, he added.
Despite the losses, IS has continued to launch counter-offensives – including several near the western Iraqi city of Haditha in the past 48 hours.
Read More

To Close Down A Society And Control The People, Governments Come For The Guns

from X22Report Spotlight:

Obama’s Executive Gun Control: No Minimum Threshold Before Private Gun Sales Require Background Checks

by AWR Hawkins, Breitbart:
On January 4, the White House released a fact sheet which previews the executive gun control Obama will announce Tuesday, and it reveals there is no numerical threshold of sales that a private seller has to cross before being considered “engaged in the business of dealing in firearms.”
In other words, previous hints that there would be a “trigger”—a certain number of guns that a private seller had to sell before being considered “engaged in the business”—are now out the window.
Read More

The End of Capitalism Is Here — Ellen Brown

from Greg Hunter:

Public banking expert and attorney Ellen Brown says, “Your life savings could be wiped out in a derivatives collapse.”
Brown explains, “Nobody anticipated what happened in 2008, and that was a $700 billion bailout. Even if the FDIC tapped its Treasury line, that’s only $500 billion. So, certainly things could go wrong. Also, why are they rushing to put these things into place? They’re expecting something.” Brown goes on to point out, “They think they have avoided too-big-to-fail, but what they have actually done is formalize too-big-to-fail. I mean it’s the end of capitalism. There is no such thing as too-big-to-fail in a capitalistic society where you say certain corporations can’t fail. If you have to take the people’s money to prop them up, it’s no longer capitalism.”


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