Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 17:07
"Given our views on credit contraction in Asia, and in China in particular, let's say they are going to go through a banking loss cycle like we went through during the Great Financial Crisis, there's one thing that is going to happen: China is going to have to dramatically devalue its currency."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 17:30 Much of the world is now running out of candy. The latest version of Bread and Circuses is reaching its inevitable end. Each of us has the opportunity to make a choice as to whether we wish to be Takers, Payers, or Preparers. The choice we make may define our future.
2015 was a very interesting year in its own right, the way it finished was even more interesting. As the year progressed we saw global trade, GDP and earnings weaken significantly. We saw unprecedented rhetoric geopolitically while central banks and sovereign treasuries became suspect from both credibility and in some cases solvency points of view.
As the world turns on credit and credit alone, it would be a good exercise to make this the focal point. We know the Fed “mandated” higher rates just a couple of weeks before Christmas.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 17:01 Because the sectarian divide is set to become the key geopolitical issue in the weeks and months ahead, we thought it an opportune time to present the following map from Goldman which does a nice job of delineating the Sunni-Shiite split in the Mid-East.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 18:54 The chart below, showing the total number of monthly FBI Firearm background checks - a direct proxy for gun purchases in the U.S., needs no commentary.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 18:30 The main lessons from today is that market shocks can be quite quick, when they suddenly unravel. There is no need for markets to follow an observable pattern (therefore casting an omen just for you). Recall as well that this is just "day 1"! There are ~20 additional dramatic trading days ahead this month, where anything can precipitously take place.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 18:14 Panic. That is, according to some of the best strategists on Wall Street, the most concise summary of trader sentiment today following a near history rout in the market on the first day of trading of 2016. But don't worry: according to Citi's Brent Donnelly, "It is too early to panic." Here's why.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 18:00 "It was over. The guard led me into a room daubed in graffiti, with the faint smell of cigarettes and urine. He allowed me to use the toilet, but it had no door – the days of privacy and dignity were over. A plastic toilet with no seat. I couldn’t really comprehend it."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 17:33
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 16:50 Away from the endless chattering of talking heads proclaiming that "they do not see any recession on the horizon" despite the manufacturing segment of the economy collapsing, JPMorgan notes that in fact the three best leading indicators for recession are: Credit spreads, yield curve shape, and profit margins. Unfortunately for The Fed and its congregation, JPM warns credit spreads are not giving a positive signal.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 16:30 Because our macroeconomic policies have false targets and actually incentivize short term strategies the Fed has directly led us off of an economic cliff. Now that the Fed has boxed itself out of any further action, the market is at the peril of a collapsing, breadwinner-job-less and debt ridden economy and so prepare yourself for the largest market ‘correction’ the world has ever faced.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 15:53 From EM darling to depression, it's been a rough ride for the "B" in BRICS. As we kick off 2016, analysts are growing increasingly concerned that Brazil's economic downturn could well be deeper and longer than anyone expected. The market's collapsing expectations are summarized in one stunning chart.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 15:35 With market valuations elevated, leverage high, economic weakness pervasive and profit margins deteriorating, investors should be watching the month of January carefully for clues. The weight of evidence suggests that despite ongoing “bullish calls” for the markets in the year ahead, this could be a year of disappointment. Pay attention, things are beginning to get interesting.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 15:20 Just two weeks ago we warned of the looming "hyperinflation monster" in Africa with the continent appearing to be running out of dollars as some of Africa’s largest economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Mozambique, are restricting access to the greenback to protect dwindling reserves. Specifically we warned of Angola's already-soaring inflation hampering its ability to 'adjust' its currency towards its black market 'reality'. But that did not stop the central bank devaluing Kwanza by 15% over the weekend - the most since 2001 - to record lows as crude prices crush their economy and the flow of USDs.
Reports that federal officials are headed to Oregon to try to “resolve” the situation where armed citizens now occupy a federal wildlife refuge building should raise warning flags for everyone. If the arrogant, tone deaf federal government attempts an aggressive assault on the compound that results in bloodshed, it might very easily spark a nationwide armed revolt against government tyranny in response.
On my podcast site HealthRangerReport.com, I’ve just posted a tactical analysis of the situation in Oregon, pointing out that if the federal government is rational, it is in the government’s own interests to see this resolved without bloodshed. After all, the nation is already on the verge of revolt as we’ve now seen with the outright rejection of both Democratic and Republican political establishments and the rise of presidential populist Donald Trump.
Montel Williams Calls For "Shoot To Kill" In Oregon Showdown; Militiamen Respond They Are "Ready To Fight"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 15:13
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 15:05 When a pair of Sunni mosques were bombed in Iraq on Sunday, the assumption was that the attacks were carried out by angry Shiites protesting the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Iraqi officials on the other hand, blame ISIS. If Islamic State is behind the attacks, the question becomes this: were they instructed to carry out the bombings by a handler or a benefactor with a hidden agenda?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 14:45 There’s really one supreme element of this story that you must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political economy) based on debt that will never be paid back is certain to crack up. Its institutions will stop functioning. Its business activities will seize up. Its leaders will be demoralized. Its denizens will act up and act out. Its wealth will evaporate. Given where we are in human history - the moment of techno-industrial over-reach - this crackup will not be easy to recover from. Things have gone too far in too many ways. The coming crackup will re-set the terms of civilized life to levels largely pre-techno-industrial. How far backward remains to be seen.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 14:12 Earlier today the US Census released its latest, November, construction spending data, which not only missed expectations of a 0.6% rebound, but tumbled -0.4%, the most since June of 2014, while all the recent data had been mysteriously revised lower. And then the source of the mystery was revealed, because in the fine print the government made a rare admission: all the construction spending data for the past 10 years had been "erroneous."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 14:00 The South China Sea is continually paraded as a region rich in oil and gas deposits; however, no one really knows what’s there with any degree of accuracy. Furthermore, these possible deposits are shrouded in conflict that will not abate anytime soon, and will most likely worsen with an intensification of the security competition between China and the United States along with its regional allies, which is tightly related to these disputes. So, what deposits do these areas contain?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 13:41 “The Israelis are hiding like rats along the border. The retaliation to Samir’s assassination will inevitably come. Hezbollah would not tolerate the blood of our jihadist fighters and brothers to be shed anywhere in this world.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 13:10 A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the decline of Great Power leverage.
Byron Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting 15% Rise In 2015Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:53 "The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:30 An 88-page "Research Note" from the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets titled "Equity Market Volatility on August 24, 2015," outlines the facts of that fateful trading day, discussing what went wrong, and which classes of securities were affected. The conclusions of the piece are purely factual, with little or no conjecture, and there's absolutely no policy recommendations. There are dozens of unintended consequences already baked into its proposed rulemaking. That's bad enough when you're talking about the inner workings of mutual funds and ETFs; it's a bigger deal when we're talking about the inner workings of the markets themselves.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:17 Led by a 4.3% collapse in Germany's DAX index, European Stocks plunged 2.5% today which is the worst start to a year ever. European credit markets spiked higher in risk. 10Y bund yields tumbled over 6bps and peripheral sovereign risk spreads jumped 10-15bps. Not a good start for Draghi and his pals...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:05
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:01 Early on Monday, gun shots were fired at a home for asylum seekers in western Germany and one resident was lightly injured, police said. The shots were fired at a window of the building in the town of Dreieich at around 2.30 a.m (0130 GMT), and one hit a 23-year-old asylum seeker who was sleeping, according to police in Offenbach, near Frankfurt. He was taken to a hospital, but was able to leave shortly afterward.
In today’s essay, you’ll learn three strategies for growing and protecting your money no matter what governments and financial markets throw at you.
This essay is part of the “field guide” we send to every new reader of our flagship research service, The Casey Report.
Principle #1: Align yourself with the best people. Always.
Let’s say that in two years’ time, oil stocks become extremely cheap and represent a great buying opportunity.
When we move to invest our capital in oil, we’re not going to buy a startup company with an unproven business plan. We’re going to invest alongside the world’s best oil company operators. We’re going to buy ownership stakes in the best oil assets.
When George Soros is not donating millions to the North American Man Boy Love Association (NAMBLA), his money movements have been predictive of an impending economic collapse. This has made him the most watched bankster in the world. If you have any money in a domestic American bank, you would be wise to read this article and act accordingly.
George Soros Is the Enemy of the American People and Traditional American Values