Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:10
"Unfortunately, it is not [a mistake]... This could be the end of the fix. It took 14 minutes to find a fix – they obviously found a fix way off of the market."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 22:29 Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs... as 10Y JGB yields hit record lows at 11bps and 20Y JGB yields drop to 82bps - the lowest since 2003
from Reuters, via Bullion Desk:
London 28/01/2016 – The silver market was thrown into disarray on Thursday after the LBMA Silver Price was set 84 cents below the spot and futures price this morning.
The LBMA Silver Price – the crucial daily benchmark used by producers and traders around the world to settle silver products and derivatives contracts – was set at $13.58 per ounce.
At the time of the auction, which begins at 12 noon London time, the spot price was at $14.42 per ounce while the futures price on the CME was at $14.415, leaving a number of market participants extremely confused as to what has happened.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 22:00 If there is one thing that Americans can agree on these days, it is the fact that most of them don't like the government.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 21:30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 21:15 Barring some miraculous 8% epic melt-up in the afternoon session - go down as the worst ever January for Chinese stocks. While that is a big enough deal, for now the 24%-plus plunge is the worst of any month since Lehman's fallout in October 2008. However, it is close... if the Shanghai Composite closes below 2667.50 today, January 2016 will become the worst month for Chinese stocks since 1994... quite a feat in a "stable" and manipulated market.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 21:02 If Fox asked Facebook to tabulate the number of viewers at tonight's GOP republican debate, the answer would probably be over 1 billion. The reality is that most potential viewers will likely be hijacked to tonight's "alternative" event, the one taking place concurrently in Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa where Donald Trump will address Wounded Warriors & Veterans but what he will really do is school the rest of the republican field how to truly control the media narrative and to remain constantly in the spotlight especially when he nowhere near it.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 21:00 If the eurodollar and wholesale banking system had been sliced to such a thin margin again by 2011 so as to so heavily depend on the modern duality of gold, it not only would not survive it literally could not survive. The paper dilution we see now may just be that judgement finally seeking open admission.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 20:35 The Goldman banker who helped arrange the financing for 1MDB, Malaysia's controversial development bank, is taking a "personal leave" and moving to Los Angeles from Singapore. Although it's not clear why Tim Leissner is making the change, the timing certainly is interesting...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 20:10 On January 21st, George Soros, who has throughout his life been passionately opposed not just to communism but also to Russia, finally stated that the United States (and possibly the EU, but he says that the EU is in terrible economic shape itself) must now fund a new Marshall Plan for all of Europe, including, this time, even his bête noire: Russia. However, is he ending, or merely suspending, his lifelong war against Russia?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 19:42 According to a Goldman report, so far in January "there has been around $USD 185bn of intervention (with the recent intervention predominantly taking place in the onshore market)" split roughly $143 billion on the domestic side and $42 billion on the offshore Yuan side
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 19:25 President Obama delivered his final State of the Union address 2 weeks ago, and devoted most of the time to defending his "legacy" of bigger and more intrusive government, with an emphasis on the other aspects of personal and social life he wished could come under the blanket of more political paternalism. What if the president offered, instead, an agenda for freedom rather than one of paternalism? What would the State of the Union address be like if he had such an epiphany for defending individual liberty rather than more unrestricted government license over our lives?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 19:10 With The Fed definitely off the table, China promising nothing but daily liquidity drips, and Europe unable to do anything but jawbone, the world's bullish equity market investors are anxiously trawling for a central bank to save the world. Tonight's BoJ meeting could well be it - though judging by their past epic failures - it will be anything but successful as QE23 looms in Japan. “The need for a Kuroda bazooka is increasing,” said Yuji Shimanaka, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is decision time for Kuroda” as additional stimulus can stop the trend of yen gains and falling stocks.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 18:30 Last week, Deutsche Bank preannounced a set of "extremely poor results" for 2015. On Thursday, we got a look at all of the numbers and the picture is not pretty. With CB&S revenues plunging by a third, Citi asks if Deutsche's investment bank model "is in structural decline."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 18:55 “Many attacks involved multiple airstrikes on multiple civilian objects. Of the 119 sorties, the panel identified 146 targeted objects. The panel also documented three alleged cases of civilians fleeing residential bombings and being chased and shot at by helicopters.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 18:05 "You can’t deny the price action. Over the last few weeks, it is positively buoyant. If I were short, my butt cheeks would be tightening up. I’m starting to develop a theory, which is crazy, but then again... it might not be entirely crazy. You can help me decide. Maybe gold is starting to price in some of this political instability. Maybe it is starting to price in a Sanders or Trump presidency."
by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:
Occasionally, it becomes necessary to begin a commentary by clearly articulating what will not be contained. This is one of those rare instances. What will not be inside this article is any actual list of the world’s richest people, nor any specific figure supplied as to even the precise number of names on such a list. The point being that such information does not exist in the public domain.
The confusion here, in part, is due to the fact that some previous analysis of this data was less-than-precise. That faulty analysis begins with a recent headline, which was given considerable acclaim and attention in a previous piece.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 17:40 Saudi Arabia - which was busy playing headline hockey with Russia this morning over a rumored 5% production cut proposal - is running out of money. Yes, we know, that sounds absurd. But believe it or not, the country whose monarch recently rented the entire Four Seasons hotel for a 48 hour stay in Washington DC, is in fact going broke. And at a fairly rapid clip.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 17:10 What matters for Amazon has never been earnings: it was always top line growth (the company generated $107 billion in sales in 2015 and less than a billion in net income) and multiple expansion (or contraction).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 17:10 There is something rotten in the state of Denmark. And we are not talking just about the hapless socialist utopia on the Jutland Peninsula - even if it does strip assets from homeless refugees, charge savers 75 basis points for the deposit privilege and allocate nearly 60% of its GDP to the Welfare State and its untoward ministrations. In fact, the rot is planetary. There is unaccountable, implausible, whacko-world stuff going on everywhere, but the frightful part is that most of it goes unremarked or is viewed as par for the course by the mainstream narrative.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 17:09
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 16:37 For years, shorts would tear their hair out quarter after quarter, when AMZN would continue to bleed cash with relentless abandon, only to see the stock soar after earnings. Now, in what may be a perfect poetic symmetry, following the quarter in which Amazon's free cash flow soared to the highest in years, printing at $7.3 billion, or more than triple the year ago period on margins that are becoming respectable on both a quarterly and LTM basis. And yet, the stock is crashing by 12% at this moment.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 16:33
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 16:27 "With January looking like a loser, there is a 70% chance that February will decline also. The high degree of risk of further declines in February would likely result in a confirmation of the bear market. This is not a market to be trifled with. Caution is advised."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:50 In a disappointingly familiar (and entirely unsurprising) case of deja vu, SEC Chair Mary Jo White raised the specter of Wall Street taking advantage of greedy mom-and-pop investors once again. Having crashed 21% in the last three weeks alone, sudden weakness in recent IPOs raises questions about the issuance process, as Bloomberg reports, White warned investors that "you have to make sure you don’t have some very aggressive promoters taking advantage of that climate." As big investors mark-down their lofty valuations, it will be the average joe, pumped and dumped by CNBC and its ilk, that end up the biggest losers in this all too real show.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:42 Meet the new Ebola...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:35 Supermajors Shell and Italian Eni could be facing the loss of one of the biggest offshore oil exploration blocks in Nigeria, putting an estimated 9 billion barrels of crude oil at risk.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:20 Speaking of policy errors...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 15:05 Europe’s biggest lender HSBC will no longer provide mortgages to some Chinese nationals who buy real estate in the United States, a policy change that comes as Beijing is battling to stem a swelling crowd of citizens trying to get money out of China. However, ass HSBC closes the door, the panicking Bank of Canada scrapped its C$1.25 million cap on mortgages to borrowers with no local credit history (to tap into surging demand for financing from wealthy immigrant buyers).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 14:20 As the great and the good gathered in Davos to ponder the next big thing, the pummeling of global equity markets brought key assumptions into question. Yet, their collective heads stayed buried in the snow with regard to the big ideas from years past, namely, the three grand economic experiments launched by the U.S., Japan and China following the Global Financial Crisis. By clinging to unrealistic growth expectations, the economic establishment has effectively bet everything on the success of these grand experiments, and the risk of losing that bet is rising inexorably.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 14:04 "In the Kingdom of Denmark, women seem to get the royal treatment"...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 13:40 Much predictably fatuous comment has been devoted to the fact that, to the extent that the US is facing any difficulties at all outside the oil patch, at present these ‘only’ affect manufacturing - a sector which , as any fool knows, accounts for a mere 12% of GDP. To acquire a feel for the error in this argument, we must look beyond the final-use fixation of the GDP arithmetic and cast our gaze instead at wider measures of activity. The charts presented here are an attempt at achieving such an overview...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 13:30 According to the head of financial markets research Asia Pacific at Rabobank, Michael Every, not only has China not begun to delever at all, but since McKinsey's update, its debt has risen by another 70% of GDP! According to Every, China's 2015 debt-to-GDP might be as high as 346%, and while that is in line with wealthier developed economies but is “vastly higher” than any EM peer.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 13:12 Moments ago we got the answer to our concerns after yesterday's poor % Year auction, when not only was today's "belly of the curve" auction not a "poor showing" at all, it may have been the strongest auction on record: pricing at 1.759% this was stopped 2.2bps through the 1.781% When Issued, perhaps a record in terms of concession, or lack thereof.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 13:00 The mother's milk of stock market returns is turning increasingly sour...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 12:19 Donald Trump "won't be bothering" with Thursday's GOP debate thanks to the fact that Fox's Megyn Kelly is among the event's moderators, but he will be hosting his own "special" event in the same city at the same time, setting up a ratings battle with the network. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz has challenged the bellicose billinoaire to a one-on-one showdown worth $1.5 million for veterans charities.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 12:09 Over the past 7 years, we as well as others (if not those who believe in magic money trees, or managing other people's money while blogging) have repeatedly said that when it comes to "market" returns, look no further than the size of the Fed's balance sheet - the single best indictor of where the S&P500 is headed to next. That is precisely what DB's Jim Reid did overnight.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 12:07 All BATS Orders will be rejected until further notice...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 11:46 We tend to assume our system for understanding the cause of failure must be sound, because we've experienced Roaring Success for so long. Rip-Roaring Success can destabilize in a number of ways.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 11:26 Sweden, grappling with allegations of a police coverup related to an alleged wave of sexual assaults at a music festival and the violent death of a 22-year-old asylum center worker at the hands of a young migrant, will move to deport some 80,000 refugees this year. That's nearly half of the record 163,000 people who entered the country in 2015.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 11:03 "We believe that the current environment is not a normal cyclical downturn but a fundamental shift in the operating environment for these commodities. As a consequence, a wholesale recalibration of ratings in the mining industry is deemed necessary. " - Moody's
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 - 11:00 Residents in Sebring, Ohio, can commiserate with those in Flint, Michigan, considering their water supply has also been contaminated with lead that “exceeds the action level,” according to the state’s EPA. Like Flint, the case of Sebring - involving some 8,100 water customers in Sebring, Beloit, Maple Ridge, and parts of Smith Township - already has the appearance of criminal negligence and a possible cover-up.
I sat down with Bill Holter, JSMineset, to see what his research is telling him about the opening of 2016 and why the markets have been in free fall. What Bill shares should get your attention and paint a realistic picture of what is happening and why it is happening.
When a designer sits down to create a new piece they usually have an idea of how the piece is going to finish. It’s called starting with the end in mind. If we apply this concept to the “designers” of our economy we will have a much better understanding of what is happening and why it is happening. The timing is always going to be elastic as situations unfold. What was working yesterday, as part of the design, may need some attention and adjustments today, thereby, creating a longer or shorter time line.
It would be safe to say that the email scandal has done quite a bit of damage to Hillary Clinton’s political career, though it has yet to completely derail her presidential campaign. That may change in the weeks ahead, if the claims of a former congressman are true.
According to Tom Delay, who was the Republican House Majority Leader from 2003-2005, the FBI is preparing to bring the hammer down on Hillary. In an interview with Newsmax.com he claimed that “I have friends that are in the FBI and they tell me they’re ready to indict.” He then made it clear that the FBI is prepared roast Hillary no matter what. If the Justice Department doesn’t indict her, the FBI is going to rebel and go public with what they know.