Monday, January 18, 2016

What Crisis Is The Gold/Oil Ratio Predicting This Time?

What happens next?

Francois Hollande Admits Socialist Policies Failed, Declares "Economic State Of Emergency"

Remember when showing 'progress' in Europe was as simple as pointing to your high stock market or low bond yields to "prove" everything is awesome. Well for Francois Hollande, the days of hiding behing manipulated data are over and the open kimono reveals a nation whose stability is wracked by record unemployment. In a desperate-for-re-election speech today, socialist leader Hollande admitted his policies needed reform and that France is an economic "state of emergency."

Art Cashin: This Is "What You Get Before You Slip Into A Crisis"

"The Fed has painted itself into a corner... [the current situation's severity] is very similar to what you get before you slip into a crisis....The bumpy ride is probably not over yet... stay on guard."

Glencore's "Investment Grade" Bonds Just Took Out September Crash Lows: Downgrade To Junk Imminent

Glencore's 2021 bonds just hit a 5 year low, taking out the September crash levels, and trading at about 64 cents on the dollar. Following the recent junking of Noble Group which has sent its stock price to 12 year lows and hitning that a bankruptcy is now virtually inevitable, we expect Glencore to be junked any minute, with the ensuing cascade of margin and collateral calls testing just how "systematically unimportant" the world's largest commodity traders really are.

Negative Oil Prices Arrive: Koch Brothers' Refinery "Pays" -$0.50 For North Dakota Crude

Do you have some extra space in your garage or attic? Or perhaps you own an oil tanker you aren’t currently using. Or maybe you have a storage unit that’s got a little extra room next to an old mattress and box springs. If so, you may want to call up oil producers in North Dakota and ask if they’d care to send you some free oil.

Dow Dumps 150Pts Off Morning Highs As Oil Bounce Dies

Remember when oil was in the green (because Iran was "priced in") and stocks were in the green (because China was "fixed") this morning? Well, that's over. The dip-buying algo's reflex has run the stops, filled the gaps to unchanged and now stocks and crude are turning lower once again.

What's Eroding The Middle Class?

A society without a functioning middle layer of economic and social activity is not stable, though repression can mask this for a time. This erosion of a self-employed, independent middle class was an important pre-condition for the collapse of Rome and the French Revolution. There is zero evidence that any of the drivers of this erosion is going to reverse.

Wall Street Reacts To The Lifting Of Iran Oil Sanctions

After years of U.S. sanctions, Iran is now free to export as much of its oil as it wants after the International Atomic Energy Agency said the country had curbed its ability to develop a nuclear weapon leads to lifting of international sanctions. And while the end of sanctions also opens the door to foreign investors into country’s oil sector, most importantly it allows the country to flood the world with its oil. As a result the first thing the Iran oil ministry did today was to issue a notification order to boost oil production by 500k b/d.Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of the world's, and Wall Street's reactions, to the lifting of the Iran oil embargo.

Equity Futures Rise After Oil Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed

With the US closed today for Martin Luther King Holiday, global risk tone has once again been set entirely by oil, which opened sharply lower at fresh 12 year lows on fears of an Iran oil glut, but has steadily rebounded on the latest OPEC comments, and at last check both WTI and Brent were unchanged trading in the low $29's on muted volume. With Asian markets mixed, European shares swung between gains and losses, while the yen weakened as China stepped up efforts to curb foreign speculation against its currency. Crude oil rose from a 12-year low after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast a decline in supplies from rival producers.

Japan's Nikkei Closes Below 17,000 As Hong Kong Money-Markets 'Break' Again

With Hong Kong Dollar spot little changed (but pressing the weaker end of its peg band) and 12-month forwards suggesting notable weakness/depegging to come, it appears that the Hong Kong interbank lending debacle is far from over. While overnight money appears stable, 1-week Yuan HIBOR is up 370bps at 11.90%, and 1-month and 3-Month HKD HIBOR just snapped higher ( to Jan 2013 highs and July 2010 highs respectively). It appears comments from Hong Kong Monetray Authority's Norman Chan that it's just a matter of time before outflow of funds lead to the local currency hitting the low end of the peg sparked heavy medium-term demand for liquidity. Offshore Yuan is crepping back weaker (as is crude) after an early bounce but NKY ended below 17,000 - for the first time since September.

Doug Casey: Why Do We Need Government?

Throughout history government has served as a vehicle for the organization of hatred and oppression, benefitting no one except those who are ambitious and ruthless enough to gain control of it. That’s not to say government hasn’t, then and now, performed useful functions. But the useful things it does could and would be done far better by the market.

Here Is The Stealthy Way Some Are Betting On A Market Crash

With the price of protecting against dramatic downside in equities soaring to record highs, it appears market participants are turning to a cheaper alternative in size...

The Fed's Stunning Admission Of What Happens Next

"The events of 1929 taught us that the absence of any rise in prices did not prove that no crisis was pending. 1937 has taught us that an abundant supply of gold and a cheap money policy do not prevent prices from falling."

Wells Fargo Is Bad, But Citi Is Worse

"While we are taking what we believe to be the appropriate reserves for that, I'm just not prepared to give you a specific number right now as far as the amount of reserves that we have on that particular book of business."

Foreign Central Banks Furiously Dump US Treasuries: Record $47 Billion Sold In First Two Weeks Of 2016

According to the latest Fed data, after a drop of $12 billion in the first week of the year, another $34.5 billion in Treasurys held in custody was sold in the week ended January 13, bringing the total to just $2.962 trillion, below the previous recent low recorded in early November, and at levels not seen since April 2015. Adding up the flows from the first two weeks of the year reveals the worst and most custody holdings "outflowing" start to the year in history.

Financial Apocalypse Accelerates As Middle East Stocks Crash To Begin The Week

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

It looks like it is going to be another chaotic week for global financial markets.  On Sunday, news that Iran plans to dramatically ramp up oil production sent stocks plunging all across the Middle East.  Stocks in Kuwait were down 3.1 percent, stocks in Saudi Arabia plummeted 5.4 percent, and stocks in Qatar experienced a mammoth 7 percent decline.  And of course all of this comes in the context of a much larger long-term decline for Middle Eastern stocks.  At this point, Saudi Arabian stocks are down more than 50 percent from their 2014 highs.  Needless to say, a lot of very wealthy people in Saudi Arabia are getting very nervous.  Could you imagine waking up someday and realizing that more than half of your fortune had been wiped out?  Things aren’t that bad in the U.S. quite yet, but it looks like another rough week could be ahead.  The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are all down at least 12 percent from their 52-week highs, and the Russell 2000 is already in bear market territory.  Hopefully this week will not be as bad as last week, but events are starting to move very rapidly now. Read More



Bill Holter from JS Mineset joins us to cover the unfolding global economic collapse. “This is it. We’re watching the meltdown. This is history being made.” Bill says.
Holter explains, “The Fed has lied themselves into a corner. They raised rates and here we are a month later, the system is imploding and they have no bullets left. They are going to have to do QE4, they are going to have to do negative interest rates.”
In one of the most shocking interviews we have ever done Bill concludes, “I believe this is it. The margin call, the meltdown, we’re watching it in real time… I guess the best way to look at where we are right now is, we’re standing at the gates of Hell.”

ISIS: US-Saudi Plague Reaches Indonesia?

by Tony Cartalucci, Activist Post:
Coordinated bombings and mass shootings struck Indonesia’s capital of Jakarta on Thursday leaving several dead and many more wounded. The pattern matched that of attacks carried out last year in Paris, France, where known terrorists Western intelligence agencies were tracking, some for years, were somehow allowed to mobilize large caches of weapons in Belgium and execute their coordinated mass murder with virtually no effort to stop them ahead of the attacks.
The so-called “Islamic State in Iraq and Syria” quickly claimed responsibility for the attack and the Western media has begun stoking fears that the terrorist organization has now spread to Southeast Asia.
Read More

The Advantages of Barter and Localism

from The Daily Bell:
Introduction: Brandon Smith is founder of the Alternative Market Project ( as well as the head writer and co-founder of Neithercorp Press. He specializes in macroeconomic analysis as well as studies in mainstream media disinformation, and is now focusing on the creation of a national network of barter markets designed to insulate and protect local economies from the inevitable collapse of the current unsustainable fiat system. His work has been published in numerous places including
Anthony Wile: Give us some background. Where did you grow up and go to school?
Brandon Smith: I’ve lived all over the country in every environment America has to offer. The Pacific Northwest and the “Redoubt” has always been my favorite, and that is where I live now. My schooling experience was like any other person’s experience who went to one of our fine public institutions: monotonous, pointless, and it probably did some irreversible psychological damage.
Anthony Wile: Did you go to university?
Read More

filed under "white trash"

The FBI’s Two-Pronged Investigation of Hillary Clinton

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts,
Judge Napolitano in the article below explains the FBI’s investigation of Hillary Clinton. There are two aspects of the investigation. The original source of her trouble is the charge that she failed to safeguard national security secrets.
As Judge Napolitano explains, this crime does not require intent and can result from negligence or simply from a lack of awareness that a secret is being revealed, as in the case that Judge Napolitano provides of the US Navy sailor who was prosecuted for espionage because a “selfie” he sent to his girlfriend revealed a sonar screen in the background. An even more egregious case is that of the US Marine who was prosecuted for using email to alert superiors to the presence of an al-Quada operative inside a US military compound. The email is considered unsecure and thus the Marine was prosecuted for revealing a secret known only to himself.
In view of these unjustified prosecutions of US military personnel, the FBI has no alternative to recommending that Hillary be indicted.
Read More…

Lead Developer QUITS Bitcoin Saying It ‘HAS FAILED’

from Reuters, via Venture Beat:
Bitcoin slid by 10 percent on Friday after one of its lead developers, Mike Hearn, said in a blogpost that he was ending his involvement with the cryptocurrency and selling all of his remaining holdings because it had “failed”.
Hearn, one of five senior developers who has spent more than five years working on the web-based currency, said he would no longer be taking part in development.
Read More…

Michael Bay’s ’13 HOURS’ Splashes Blood Across The Screen – And Misses The REAL Story of Benghazi

by Peter Maass, The Intercept:

WOULD YOU GIVE the story of Benghazi to the producer of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles? Someone did. The result is the new film directed by Michael Bay, 13 Hours, which makes Rambo look like War and Peace.
In 13 Hours, Bay displays a fetish for fake blood and heads that explode like watermelons when waves of bad guys are given the tap-tap of eternal sleep from the hot barrels of American assault rifles. Are the repetitive scenes of mowed-down attackers a job-creation program for the hundreds of dark-haired extras dressed as ready-for-paradise militiamen? Was Bay suffering from the delusion that every attacker killed on screen would translate into a vote for an Oscar? The true story of13 Hours, in Bay-worthy broad strokes, is this: Six private military contractors who work for the CIA try to stave off attacks by Libyan militants on two U.S. compounds in Benghazi in 2012. Yet Bay’s movie feels like a hybrid war/zombie film, The Green Berets meets Night of the Living Dead.
Read More…


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