Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Is This The Start: Regional Bank Tumbles After Admitting To Previously Underreserved Energy Loss

Earlier today BOK financial admitted that as a result of a major loan impairment on just one energy producer it would have to take a dramatic $22.5 million in credit losses, but that things are slowly going from great to not so great when it also admitted that "we continued to see credit grade migration and increased impairment in our energy portfolio. The combination of factors necessitated a higher level of provision expense."

JPM's "Gandalf" Quant Is Back With A Startling Warning

"The fact that market volatility is on the rise and the Fed is raising interest rates further increases the probability of a Bear Market. The current option-implied probability of a bear market (i.e. ~20% decline this year) is about 25%. While there is no way to predict a bear market, below we look at various scenarios, and estimate that the probability of a bear market may be nearly twice as large."

20th Largest Bank In The World: 2016 Will Be A ‘Cataclysmic Year’ And ‘Investors Should Be Afraid’

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

The Royal Bank of Scotland is telling clients that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” and that they should “sell everything”.  This sounds like something that you might hear from The Economic Collapse Blog, but up until just recently you would have never expected to get this kind of message from one of the twenty largest banks on the entire planet.  Unfortunately, this is just another indication that a major global financial crisis has begun and that we are now entering a bear market.  The collective market value of companies listed on the S&P 500 has dropped by about a trillion dollars since the start of 2016, and panic is spreading like wildfire all over the globe.  And of course when the Royal Bank of Scotland comes out and openly says that “investors should be afraid” that certainly is not going to help matters.
Read More…

Think Things Are Bad Now? RBS Cries ‘SELL EVERYTHING’ As Deflationary Crisis Nears

‘This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small’
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph:
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.
Andrew Roberts, the bank’s research chief for European economics and rates, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs.
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"You Lie" - Fact-Checking Obama's SOTU Job "Gains" Claims

President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address came up short of the facts on several topics. Obama apparently omitted part of his presidency in boasting of nearly 900,000 manufacturing jobs “in the past six years.” Over his entire time in office, manufacturing jobs have gone down by 230,000.

In Latest Embarrassment For Obama, Iran Releases Footage Of Arrest, Apology Of 10 U.S. Sailors

42% of Americans Ditch Two-Party System, Say Government Is Biggest Problem

More people in the United States than ever are breaking away from the political duopoly by refusing to self-identify as either Democrat or Republican - and they now effectively comprise the true silent majority: Independents.

"The Rapes! The Riots!": Trump Blasts Merkel's Immigration Policy

"Do you see what she's done to Germany? They have a problem. She went off the reservation. I don't know what happened to her. She was doing well."

For Amazon "Is It Different This Time?"

We show the sources of return for AMZN stock, split between sales growth and multiple expansion. As the chart asks (and answers) the question longs should be asking themselves is whether it is "different this time?"

The Dow Is Now Down 1600 Points From New Year's Exuberant Highs


Brent Follows WTI, Crashes Below $30 For First Time Since April 2004

Well that escalated quickly...

Can ISIS Actually Gain Power Over Libya's Oil?

The Islamic State's play for Libyan oil could lead the warring governments to speed up a power-sharing agreement to end the civil war and unite them in the face of an even greater threat. Or, they could lose all to ISIS, which would allow the terrorist group to seize control of an OPEC country.

CSX CEO Admits "This Hasn't Happened Outside Of A Recession"

One of our favorite hypocritical CEOs spoke this morning to try and explain why his rail freight transportation company's stock is plunging. 11 months ago Michael Ward was adamant on CNBC that he has "not seen any changes," suggesting everything's fine down to $30-35 oil and "expected no impact on crude shipments." Today, he exclaims, the volume drop can be seen as "freight recession," warning that "there is pressure on markets not seen outside of a recession." He is right, of course, as we noted previously, the weakness in rails is entirely recessionary and is no longer limited to industrials or coal.

It's Not Just China, "The Whole Damn System Is Untenable"

China is untenable in its current financial position. That is the primary problem, and so long as it remains so whatever the PBOC does will have but a fleeting impact. In more immediate terms, that is being recognized by the “dollar” run which continues to savage not just China but South America (more than just Brazil), Africa, Asia (more than China) and you might even argue Canada and Mexico. From that, we see that it isn’t China that is the problem with the “dollar”, it is the whole damn system.

US Small Caps Plunge To 30-Month Lows Into Bear Market

The first week of July 2013 was the last time the Russell 2000 traded at these levels. That is 30 months of buy-and-hold for no return. Despite the constant clammer from "Small Cap fund managers" that they are the plaxce to be for protection against a soaring USD (since they are dominantly domestically focused), it seems the fact that small caps are much more sensitive to credit market conditions is the real reason and that market is carnaging.

Another Bubble Bursts

Dear Janet, it appears the US consumer (or small business) is nothing like as strong as you "believed."

Turkey Suicide Bomber Identified As Saudi-Born, Syrian Refugee

The man who killed 10 German tourists on Tuesday in a brazen suicide attack in Istanbul has been identified as one Nabil Fadli, a ISIS-linked , Saudi-born operative who entered Turkey just last week as a Syrian refugee.

Scorching Demand For 10 Year Paper: Indirects Take Down Near Record 71%, Bid To Cover Surges

If anyone had expected that today's record AB InBev deal would lead to a tail in the just concluded $21 billion 10-Year (technically 9 Year-10 month CUSIP M56 reopening) auction, they would be very disappointed, when moments ago the US Treasury announced a high yield of 2.09%, stopping a whopping 1.5 bps through the When Issued 2.105%, and the lowest yield since October's 2.07%. But the real stunner was the internals, where the Directs took down at modest 11.3%, but it was the foreign central bankers, aka the Indirects, who took down a whopping 71%, the second highest on record, and just 0.3% shy of the record high hit in February 2011.

The End Of The Luxury Housing Boom: US Treasury Launches Crack Down On Secret Buyers Of Luxury Real Estate

“We are seeking to understand the risk that corrupt foreign officials, or transnational criminals, may be using premium U.S. real estate to secretly invest millions in dirty money,” said FinCEN Director Jennifer Shasky Calvery. “Cash purchases present a more complex gap that we seek to address. These GTOs will produce valuable data that will assist law enforcement and inform our broader efforts to combat money laundering in the real estate sector.”

Is This The Spot For A Small Cap Bounce?

The beaten-down Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has reached a confluence of significant potential near-term support levels. Should this level fail to provide as much as a speed bump and the Russell 2000 slices right through it, then perhaps a more devastating market decline is already at hand.

A Homeland Is a Country That Allows Domestic Use of Military

from Washington’s Blog:

Have you seen Dahr Jamail’s report on U.S. military plans for war games in Washington state? I’m sure some observers imagine that the military is simply looking for a place to engage in safe and responsible and needed practice in hand-to-hand combat against incoming North Korean nuclear missiles, or perhaps to rehearse a humanitarian invasion of Russia to uphold the fundamental international law against Vladimir Putin’s existence.
But if you look over the history of domestic use of the U.S. military — such as by reading the new book Soldiers on the Home Front: The Domestic Role of the American Military — it’s hard not to wonder whether, from the U.S. military’s point of view, at least a side benefit of the coming war game isn’t rehearsing for the next time citizens in kayaks interfere with a corporation intent on poisoning the earth’s climate with fossil fuels.
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Mounting U.S. Household Debt and Bank Overdraft Fees

by Devon Douglas-Bowers, Lew Rockwell:

We have all been shafted by overdraft fees from our bank at some time or another. It’s an annoyance and frustration, especially to those of us who already don’t have much money as well as a constant puzzle: If one doesn’t have $5, how are they going to pay an extra $35?  Yet banks continue to do this and rake in money, as can be seen by them having made $35 billion[1] in overdraft fees in 2014. In order to get a better handle on the problem of overdrafts, we need to understand the history of such fees as well as reframe how we look at the situation, changing our perspective to see overdraft fees as a sort of loan rather than a fee.
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Chemtrails: “It’s about carbon credits, carbon taxes, carbon black dust and sulfuric acid” — Jim Lee

from SGT, SGT
There is a war going on over our heads. It’s a weather war. More specifically, it’s a war on humanity. The geoengineering agenda is now the worst kept secret of the deep state. Dane Wigington has been all over this issue, exposing the horrible truth for years now. Our friend David Dees has been dedicating much of his original artwork to waking people up to the issue as well. Take a look at the incredible photos David has taken of skies above his own home (below).
But in a brand new hard-hitting video commentary from researcher and activist Jim Lee, the hardcore ugly truth about geoengineering is laid bare.
Lee explains that at the heart of geoengineering and “chemtrails” is JP8 fuel doped with sulfur with the “official” stated purpose being to “cool the planet”. But of course the true nature of this globalist agenda is far worse – and as usual, centers around greed and control. Lee says,
It’s about carbon credits, carbon taxes, carbon black dust and sulfuric acid – and it all comes from the jet fuel.
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What Will China Dump Next, After Treasuries, to Keep Control?

from Wolf Street:

“Practically boundless” future capital outflows.
“Beneath all of the financial turbulence there lurks, in my view, a credit crisis; I fear the worst now,” UBS economic adviser George Magnus told Bloomberg TV today. The reform agenda “has stalled,” he said, and “things are looking much bleaker for China going forward.”
And so on Monday, we got another flavor of it.
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