Wednesday, January 6, 2016

New Gallup Poll – Americans Consider Government A Much Bigger Problem Than Guns...

"In the same Gallup survey that listed 'dissatisfaction with government' as the top concern for each of the past two years, 'guns/Gun control' was considered 'the most important problem' by 2 percent of respondents, about the same who listed “lack of respect for each other” and pollution.'

Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History

All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.

US Equity Collapse Erases All Post-QE3 Gains As FANTAsy Stocks Plunge

But, but, but... it's not a market-driven only by The Fed, right?

Apple Tumbles To ETFlash Crash Levels, Saved (For Now) By Another Tim Cook Hail Mary Announcement

Apple's shares broke below $100 in pre-market trading as analyst downgrades and further component producer outlook reductions weighed heavily on the "no brainer." It appears increasingly likely that Tim Cook's "rescue" email to Cramer on August was perhaps not the entire truth.. and the market is trading back to levels it first crossed in August 2014 (i.e. unchanged in 16 months). Of course, amid this carnage this morning, AAPL attempted to save the day and issued a quick statement proclaiming January 1st as the biggest App Store spending day in history... for now the stock is not excited about that.

Chipotle December Sales Collapse; Reports Receipt Of FDA Subpoena, New Stock Buyback

And the hits just keep on coming. In a double-whammy for investors hoping to catch Chipotle's falling-knife, the mexican fast-food restaurant reports a 30% collapse in same-store-sales for December and receiving a grand jury subpoena with regard the California Norovirus event. The stock crashed 10% on the news.  However, the stock's initial collapse has been rescued as CMG reports a boost to its buyback program... seriously!

Trade Deficit Improves In November Despite Trade Slowdown, As "Exports Decrease Less Than Imports"

The US November Trade deficit printed at $42.4 billion, down from $44.6 billion in October and better than the $44.0 billion consensus expectation. However, instead of suggesting on overall improvement, the only reason the deficit improved is because as the BEA admitted, "exports decreased less than imports", in other words, both decreased. Specifically, imports fell 1.7% in Nov. to $224.59b from $228.36b in Oct, while exports fell 0.9% in Nov. to $182.21b from $183.78b in Oct. A key driver was another decline in petroleum imports which fell $262 million to a total of $10.7 billion courtesy of the drop in oil prices.

Dear Mark Zandi... Please Explain This

If Mark Zandi and his "whatever it takes" seasonal-adjusters at ADP are to be believed, the US manufacturing sector added the most jobs in 11 months in December. Our question is simple - with ISM Manufacturing Employment at post-recession lows and US Manufacturing PMIs at post-recesssion lows, and inventories-to-sales ratios at post-recession highs, why are goods-producers hiring at such a frantic pace?

ADP Payrolls Soar To Highest Since 2014, Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"

Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.

A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To China's "Surprising" Devaluation

  • Today’s fixing was a big surprise, and impression is that upside risks to USD/CNY have grown
  • PBOC’s actions are conflicting: there was suspected intervention yesterday and sentiment stabilized, but it set such a low fixing today
  • Will help loosen monetary conditions; still, risk of capital outflows could increase concurrently
  • Expect 5%-10% depreciation by end of the year, though this depends on the pace of PBOC’s intervention and health of macroeconomy

The Carnage Returns: Stocks Tumble After Sharp Chinese Devaluation; Brent At 2004 Lows; Gold Surges

Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.

"Presidentialism" Not Serving American Politics Well

Evangelicals, Tea-partiers, Progressives, Libertarians, Ghettofied Blacks, Unionized Labor, and other groups will be tapped and lured by the career politicians in the two parties to receive their financial support and vote, in most instances without political voice… Our system of Presidentialism may have served us well in the past but its rigidity in the political process denies the multiple voices that need to be heard in a democracy, nor offers the required tools for political compromise.  Sadly... here we are, stepping into 2016 with the possible political prospect of having to elect as chief executive of this nation either a lady with questionable trust-credentials or a boisterous charlatan.

North Korea Confirms It Conducted "Successful Hydrogen Bomb Test" As "Act Of Self-Defense" Against US

Update: North Korea has confirmed that it has "successfully tested a hydrogen bomb." The test was "an act of self-defense" against threats like the US.
A 5.1-magnitude earthquake detected near North Korea’s nuclear test site appears to have been artificial, according to South Korea’s meteorological service, raising the prospect the isolated regime tested a nuclear device. As Bloomberg reports, the "earthquake" follows North Korea’s threat in September that it is ready to use atomic weapons against the U.S. at any time and that its main nuclear facility was fully operational. The Pentagon is reportedly "looking into" the quake reports.

Central Bank Money Printing - The Rotten Philosophy That Lies Beneath

Taking away from the government its power of compelling the citizenry to accept money that it monopolistically controls and abuses may serve as an important legal and economic change to force the government and those who live at its spending trough to face the reality of the welfare state’s ideological and fiscal bankruptcy before it is too late to avert a complete collapse of the society.

Visualizing How The Global Economy Played Out In 2015

Many people start a new year with renewed optimism. However, "New Year, Same Problems" is the meme of 2016... and recent trading has dashed some of that optimistic 'This time it's different' hope.

Dow Futures Plunge 170 Points After Yuan Crashes To 5-Year Lows As PBOC Loses Control

Dow futures are down over 170 points from the cash close, testing the lows of the day following carnage in the Chinese currency markets. Despite the biggest drop in onshore Yuan since August devaluation, Offshore Yuan has collapsed to its lowest since September 2010. What is more worrisome (or positive for Kyle Bass) is that the spread between onshore and offshore Yuan has blown out to 1250 pips - a record - indicating dramatic outflows and/or expectations of further devaluation to come.

Doctors can report some mentally ill patients to FBI under new gun control rule

by Melanie Hunter CNSnews:

Delivering on its promise to deliver “common sense” gun control, the Obama administration on Monday finalized a rule that enables health care providers to report the names of mentally ill patients to an FBI firearms background check system.
The action was one of a series of steps that President Barack Obama had called for in January 2013 in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shootings to curb gun violence, but the rule was not published until today.
While the 1993 Brady law prohibits gun ownership by individuals who have been involuntarily committed, found incompetent to stand trial or otherwise deemed by a court to be a danger to themselves or others, federal health care privacy rules prohibited doctors and other providers from sharing information without the consent of their patients.
Read More…

Explosive CNBC Interview – Richard Fisher Admits Stock Markets Totally Driven by QE

from Kris Szczepanski:

Former Federal Reserve President, Richard Fisher, admits on CNBC on January 5, 2013…”We Frontloaded A Tremendous Market Rally”. Richard Fisher admits on TV that the markets are Fake, that they are driven by endless currency printing.

The Bankers’ India Gold Grab: An Update

by Jeff Nielson, Sprott Money:
In previous commentaries , readers were warned that Western bankers were once again targeting the gold market of India with more of their fiendish plans. This time, they convinced (bribed?) India’s new, corrupt government – the Modi regime – into orchestrating a scheme to steal the gold from its own people.
The nexus of this scam was what was announced as “the gold deposit scheme.” Even the Conspirators themselves were unable to come up with a name to make this naked fraud sound legitimate. The fraud itself is simple, indeed utterly simplistic.
Read More

Millions Opt to Pay Fine, Refuse to Buy Health Insurance

by William Bigelow, Breitbart:
Although 2.5 million new customers bought insurance through HealthCare.Gov after open enrollment began November 1, 10.5 million people eligible to buy coverage remained uninsured, according to the Obama Administration. One salient reason for the underenrollment may be that people opt to pay the fine for remaining uninsured rather that ante up the huge sums for insurance.
The Kaiser Family Foundation conducted a study that found roughly seven million people eligible for exchange coverage would save more by eschewing coverage and paying penalties instead. The Kaiser study estimated the average penalty as $661 per uninsured household in 2015 and $969 for 2016 .
Read More


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