Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 18:38
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:04
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 18:55 If there was one silver-lining in the oil complex, it was the demand for VLCCs (as huge floating storage facilities or as China scooped up 'cheap' oil to refill their reserves) which drove tanker rates to record highs. Now, as Bloomberg notes so eloquently, it appears the party is over! Daily rates for benchmark Saudi Arabia-Japan VLCC cargoes have crashed 53% year-to-date to $50,955 (as it appears China's record crude imports have ceased).
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 18:33
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 17:55
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 17:25 Post-Baathist Iraq is rife with sectarian discord, a post-Assad Syria would likely be an even bloodier free-for-all than it already is, and post-Gaddafi Libya is a failed state with two governments each claiming legitimacy. These types of environments are exploitable by extremists eager to capitalize on the chaos by seizing resources and, ultimately, power.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 17:10 "The fact that market volatility is on the rise and the Fed is raising interest rates further increases the probability of a Bear Market. The current option-implied probability of a bear market (i.e. ~20% decline this year) is about 25%. While there is no way to predict a bear market, below we look at various scenarios, and estimate that the probability of a bear market may be nearly twice as large."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:55 We want this time to be different so badly, we can almost taste it. But this time is only different on the margins; the flavor of the bust remains the taste of ashes.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:33 “The bulk cash distribution site was used by [ISIS] to distribute money to fund terrorist activities. We estimate in the millions of dollars ... from all their illicit stuff: oil, looting, extortion,”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:32 Who could have seen this coming? Week after the CEO ordered his mega-yacht and 6 months after Jim Cramer said "it was going higher," GoPro has just slashed Q4 revenue guidance by 15% (from $510.9mm to $435mm) and has addtionally decided to layoff 7% of the workforce. For now, GPRO is halted... but Ambarella is not (and is collapsing 6% after hours) leaving them down 65-80% since Cramer said "buy buy buy."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:26
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:17 Earlier today BOK financial admitted that as a result of a major loan impairment on just one energy producer it would have to take a dramatic $22.5 million in credit losses, but that things are slowly going from great to not so great when it also admitted that "we continued to see credit grade migration and increased impairment in our energy portfolio. The combination of factors necessitated a higher level of provision expense."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:55 Nope and Mange...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:43 The similarities continue. Both saw an initial sharp 2-3 month fall from their peaks followed by a quarter or so of stability. The NASDAQ then started to fall sharply again and Chinese equities seem to have started a similar trend on a similar timeline....
The Government releases its retail sales report for December this Friday. The Census Bureau is the front-man for this report, which means that we can expect something that conforms to the highest standards of statistical manipulation.
But the truth is, we already know based on data released by private-sector entities that retail sales in December, and for the entire fourth quarter, were a disaster. Six days ago, Macy’s announced that its comp store sales dropped 4.7% in November and December vs. those two months in 2014. Recall that the Government reported that retail sales actually fell nearly 1% in December 2014. In addition, Macy’s slashed another 3,000 employees.
In the chart below you can see the lower sales of American Gold Eagle coins the past few years relative to sales during the period of the global financial crisis from 2008-10. While it’s too early to call, January’s strong American Gold Eagle sales so far may mark the beginning of a reversal of that trend.
American Gold Buffalo Coin Sales
Since 2006, the U.S. Mint has produced a 24K gold coin, the American Gold Buffalo. Sales of this coin have ranged from about a third to a sixth of those of American Gold Eagles. Even with exceptionally strong American Gold Eagle sales the first two days of January, sales of American Gold Buffalo coins are about half (23,000 vs 47,500) during the same time period.
The headline employment numbers present a glamorous picture of the economy but one that is not based on reality. After all, you have over 94 million Americans not in the labor force and this growing army of people is helping to keep the unemployment rate low. And for a growing number of Americans those in the actual workforce, many are being stuck in part-time jobs or are part of the low wage service sector economy. A large number of young Americans graduating with back breaking levels of debt and degrees are finding jobs such as baristas at Starbucks or working the checkout lines at Target. The wages earned here are simply not going to go far enough to cover the massive $1.3 trillion in student debt outstanding. We have traded good paying jobs for bread and circus jobs. Why bread and circus jobs? Because the current economy is largely designed to distract people into mindless consumption while the middle class slowly disappears through the fingers of Americans.
The corrupt lackeys in the U.S. Senate have blocked a(nother) effort to “audit the Fed”. No surprise there. And former Chief Stooge at the Fed, B.S. Bernanke has found it necessary to criticize that initiative. No surprise there, either. However, that doesn’t mean I’m going to allow that sleazy reptile to crawl out from under his rock — without a few thoughts of my own.
This is what B.S. Bernanke had to say:
When activist movements enter into confrontation with a corrupt government or establishment structure, often the temptation is to stick rather closely to what they know. The problem with this is that even though circumstances change and the fighting escalates, people will still turn to their old standby methods for defending themselves. This makes these movements repetitive, predictable and ineffective.
In the case of the liberty movement, the more passive tactic of marches and sign waving is immediately suggested. But inevitably some hothead is going to demand one of two things: a mass armed surge on the steps of Washington, D.C., or some kind of Alamo-inspired cinematic standoff. You would think that these strategies were the only two aggressive methods in existence; they are brought up so often it becomes mind-numbing.
A big THANK YOU goes out to Campbell’s Soup Company for taking a step in the right direction and announcing GMO labeling for all their food products. All ingredients in Campbell’s food products that contain genetically modified organisms will now be labeled. It’s still unclear whether the labels will make distinctions on the kind of GMOs used, but one thing is for sure: customers are going to know which ingredients contain GMOs in general.
This is a huge leap of progress for food ingredient transparency and honest labeling. It is an important step for a free market that will have no choice but to adapt. To compete, more companies are going to have to be honest and label GMOs on their own products, because this is what consumers are wanting more of. Campbell’s is setting a fine example here, and their leadership will influence other companies to come out of the dark and start labeling the ingredients that are derived from genetically modified crops.
The BDI Is At a Record Low
Unfortunately, the BDI, has just dropped another 3.1% to a new record low of 402. To anyone who knows anything about economics, it is clear that the end of this financial era is quickly coming to an end.
The MSM Conspires to Keep the Truth From the People
The Main Stream Media is totally ignoring the precipitous and unprecedented drop in the BDI. However, the impending financial crisis is not going unnoticed by those who manage the shipping industry. They recognize this as the total disaster that it is. For example, total orders at the shipyards in China, have dropped off by a nearly 60% in the first 11 months of last year according to Bloomberg.
A few months back India announced it’s latest attempt to steal the gold from it’s citizens. The India government offered their citizens paper promises for their physical gold horde. It is estimated the general population of India has approximately 20,ooo tons of gold. This is more gold than the U.S., Germany and Italy, the top three official sovereign gold hordes, combined. The people of India love gold and have accumulated gold for many generations.
As gold and silver mining supplies continue to dwindle the governments, especially in the West, began taking steps to curtail the flow of gold into India. In 2014 India passed import taxes on gold that choked the influx into the country. Those laws were relaxed in mid 2015 and gold began to, once again, free flow through the markets.