Friday, January 8, 2016

Market Massacre: Worst Ever First Week Of Trading

Weekend Reading: Breaking Markets

"Some people are never too old to find new ways to lose money."

Doctors Urge California Residents "Leave Now...While You Can" As Gas Leak Fears Grow

This is the equivalent of the BP oil spill on land, in a populated community... If you have a chance to leave, if you’re able to leave... if you have a chance to relocate, do it now. I’m telling you, it’s really critical.

2016's "How To Make A Fortune" Cookie

Anyone for Chinese?

"The Entire Risk Paradigm Is Shifting" - Stocks Join Global 'Reality' Adjustments

The entire risk paradigm is shifting more so than it already has. Commodities and “money” more broadly are winning the argument, so to speak, having declared long ago greater downside risks. This is increasingly taking on the proportions of a global reset.

Auto Sales Are About To Choke: Increase In Non-Revolving Credit Is Smallest In 4 Years

After rising by $15.5 billion in the month before, and a near-record $22 billion in September, the November increase in nonrevolving credit was a paltry $8.3 billion - this was the smallest monthly increase in this most important for US car makers data, since February of 2012!

When 3 Trillion Just Isn't Enough: Analysts Fret Over "Worrying" China Reserve Burn

"The burn rate has been worrying. It’s not about how long it gets to zero, its about how long it gets to about 2, which is what they need."

China's Largest Bank Is Mystery Buyer Of Massive 1,500 Ton Gold Vault In London

Here is precisely where the brand new gold vault of the world's biggest bank will be located.

"Ms. Merkel Invited Me": Refugee Sex Assaults Reported In Finland, Switzerland, Austria

Reports now suggest the string of sex assaults allegedly perpetrated by asylum seekers on New Year's Eve wasn't confined to Germany as women in Switzerland, Austria, and Finland say they experienced similar attacks to those which occurred in Cologne. Germany now says it's prepared to deport those responsible, while little by little, Angela Merkel's rheotric is shifting.

Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall

In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.

Calls For "Retroactive Assessment" Begin After US Arrests Two Mid-East Refugees On Terror Charges

"I commend the law enforcement for apprehending these two individuals, but their apprehensions raise the immediate question: Who else is there? What are they planning next? We need to see a systematic and careful retroactive assessment of refugees brought in from high-risk countries."

The Canary In The Gold Mine

While one can never be entirely certain about these things, as they always play out slightly differently, it could well be that the upturn in the Rand gold price and SA gold shares is once again a leading signal for the entire sector. The canary in the gold mine so to speak, only this canary isn’t dying: instead it is a dead canary that is coming back to life.

The Hedge Fund Known As The Swiss National Bank Posts A Record $23 Billion Loss, Down 4%, On EUR, AAPL, VRX

In a year in which the smartest money around the world failed to generate any profit, the hedge fund known as the SNB was likewise slammed, and earlier today, it announced in a preliminary report (the full results will be out on March 4) that it had suffered a CHF23 billion ($23.05 billion) loss in the past year, or about 4% of its assets under management. In retrospect, considering some of the double-digit losses recorded by the marquee hedge fund names, a 4% loss looks downright respectable by funds who "hedge" only in name.

Militia Leader Refuses Sheriff's Roadside Offer To End Standoff: "I Don't Need An Escort"

"We're here for the people of Harney County. We're here because people were being ignored. Now we're getting ignored again."
"I didn't come here to argue."

Dear Janet, This Was Not Supposed To Happen

The Treasury yield curve has collapsed since Janet and her band of inverse Robin-Hoods hiked rates into the worst earnings and manufacturing recession since the crisis. In fact, the spread between 2Y and 10Y rates has plunged 15bps since December's FOMC meeting to its flattest since 2008... so we ask simply - Dear Janet, please explain?

How Low Will The Yuan Go? Deutsche Bank Answers

"Until the market acquires greater confidence on the intended scale of currency depreciation as well as the equilibrium level of capital outflows (and effectiveness of capital controls) concerns around China’s currency policy are unlikely to subside any time soon."

WTI Slides Despite Plunge In US Oil Rig Count

The oil rig count dropped 20 to 516 in the last week - the biggest weekly drop in 4 weeks to new cycle lows. Crude was unimpressed, jumping modestly and then fading...

In Q4 When 282,000 Average Jobs Were Supposedly Added, The Atlanta Fed Sees GDP At A Paltry 0.8%

So, to summarize: in a quarter in which GDP rose by 0.8%, and was likely negative when excluding the benefits - yes, that's right, benefits - of the warm winter, the same way last year's "harsh winter" supposedly subtracted from GDP, the US added on average over 270,000 workers per month. Just when you thought the Chinese Department of Truth couldn't be topped...

The China Narrative That Really Matters

"I get nervous because the next move in China is going to be a political move, and political moves are never well anticipated by markets. The Beijing regime is going to take steps to defend itself, or at least insulate itself, from the growing Narrative that they are incompetent. Heads will roll. Literally, in all likelihood. But the incompetence genie is very hard to stuff back into the bottle, and depending on whose head is on the chopping block, regime stability can deteriorate very quickly. Now that's what will make me change my bullish stance on China fundamentals, and that's what will make the US market swoon of last August look like a gentle spring rain."

If You Are An Oil Bull, Don't Look At These 2 Charts

It's getting worse... faster! These two stunning overnight developments in crude oil prices should shock investors...

The 10 Principles Of Bubbles Show Why The Whole Planet's On Central Planner "Crack"

Bubbles don’t correct - they burst! Sure, U.S. stocks might have climbed out of the August correction. But too many small- and mid-cap stocks are in the red to say "the coast is clear." And these growing divergences in the market are showing that we are very, very close to bursting.

US Stocks Give Up "China Is Fixed" Gains

Small Caps have been red most of the day but the major US equity indices clung valiantly to hopeful "China is fixed... and what about Jobs" gains (despite the recessionary print in wholesale data). But that is all over now... The S&P 500 and Dow have now broken down and turned red for the day...

The December Jobs Report: Full Summary

Transportation revised up thanks to UPS/Fedex revisions; December boosted by warm weather, January to reverse; Low oil prices benefiting the petrochemical sector; Consumer Spending remains strong

Where The December Jobs Were: Minimum Wage Deluge Continues

Earlier we gave a big picture explanation how the US can add 292,000 while average hourly wages actually decline. Below is a more nuanced answer, looking at the breakdown of jobs by industry in December.  It will probably come as no surprise to anyone that for another consecutive month, the well-paying jobs: mining and logging, wholesale trade, manufacturing, and information barely posted a net increase. At the same time, the poor paying jobs continued to soar.

The Last Time Automakers Channel-Stuffed This Much, Lehman and GM Went Bankrupt

Don't show Phil LeBeau this chart!

Wholesale Trade Data Suggest Manufacturing Recession Spreading To Entire Economy

The good news - wholesale inventories are being worked off (falling 0.3% MoM in November - biggest drop since May 2013). The bad news - inventories are being worked off (crushing Q4 GDP hopes and Fed forecasts). The ugly news - Wholesale sales collapsed 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop in a year (leaving the spread between sales and inventories at a record high). The ugliest data of all - inventories-to-sales spiked to 1.32x - (the highest since 2008's crisis recession and as high as the worst in the 2001 recession!)

RBS: "This Is Simply The Worst Week We Had In Recent History... After Too Much Policy Kool-aid"

This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Cruz and Rubio Side With BLM Over Land Grab In Oregon.

from The Marshall Report:

Any Senator or Congress person, and any candidate who is saying that the Oregon defenders of the constitution are being lawless need to do a bit of homework and look at why they are standing up and what they are really fighting. They are tired of the land grab of the BLM, tired of the bully tactics, the harsh and cruel punishment for those defending their land and land rights to water and grasslands.
Both Cruz and Rubio spoke out for the ranchers to obey the BLM and follow the law. The law that has usurped the law? The truth is the lawlessness is coming from the BLM and Obama’s move to move along the sustainable development programs.
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NATO: Who’s The Aggressor? (Part I)

from The News Doctors:

There has been much discussion recently of NATO in the mainstream and alternate media. Why was NATO founded in the first place and why did it expand so rapidly after the collapse and dismemberment of the USSR in 1991. According to widely held views in the west, NATO originated as a defensive alliance against an aggressive, menacing Soviet Union after World War II.
There is nothing unusual about this post 1945 representation of the USSR. Western negative perceptions of Russia date back to the 19th century, if not earlier. After the October Revolution of 1917 western Russophobia was exacerbated by the Red Scare. For three years the «Entente» powers tried to throttle the nascent Soviet republic. When the foreign intervention failed, the Entente constructed a cordon sanitaire through the Russian borderlands from the Baltic to Black Seas. The idea was to keep the Bolshevik revolution from spreading into central Europe.
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10 Things Truth Seekers Should Beware Of In 2016

from The Sleuth Journal:

It’s a brand new year and as truth seekers we should be on the lookout for synthetic conflicts that are intended to lead us into a new global order. The ideal situation is one in which we are highly vigilant while enjoying our lives. With that said, Happy New Year to all.
Want to be effective? Want to feel fully oriented to life? Then break away from the ignorance and pay attention to what is happening both globally and domestically. A crucial element to survival in 2016 will be our ability to pay attention to what matters. So pay attention and be on the lookout for booby traps, upcoming conflicts, deceptions and new challenges that come our way and be prepared to quickly come up with effective solutions.
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