Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 14:13 A week ago we warned of some insane movements and mysterious bid in OIL (the Barclays iPath oil tracking ETN) as it traded a stunning 36% rich to its underlying NAV. Well with oil resurgent today, as contracts roll, something just imploded in OIL...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 17:15 Is the economy “nowhere near recession?” Maybe. Maybe not. But the charts above look extremely similar to where we were at this point in late 2007 and early 2008. Could this time be “different?” Sure. But historically speaking, it never has been.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 17:06 The economic emergency decree and any measures that the government could take at this point may be too late. After two years of inaction and the recent decline in oil prices, a credit event in 2016 is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid, in our view. After two years of inaction, with depleting external assets and the recent decline in oil prices, a credit event in 2016 may be becoming hard to avoid, in our view.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 16:25 Maybe this is it. Maybe the global financial system has truly reached its limit. Maybe the world has realized that the path to prosperity is not in conjuring money out of thin air, raising taxes, or going deeper into debt. Maybe people have finally figured out that an insolvent government and insolvent central bank cannot possibly continue to underpin the entire financial system. Or maybe not. But the incredible thing is how much panic there has been, particularly in banking and financial markets, just at the mere HINT of problems in the system.
The fear of “currency instability.”
“Without precedent” — that’s what National Bank of Canada’s chief economist Stéfane Marion called the wholesale destruction of the loonie.
The Canadian dollar is in a tailspin. Rarely has it tumbled so far so fast, and against so many currencies. The steepness of the CAD’s depreciation against the USD is without precedent, -33%, or 3.5 standard deviations, in 24 months.
In the two weeks so far this year, the loonie has dropped 5.8% against the euro, 5.3% against the greenback, and 8.6% against the yen.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 16:17 When your organic growth is over, and your revenue just missed consensus expectations once again ($7.74Bn vs $7.77BN expected) what do you do? Why you announce a $10 billion stock buyback, but since you will have to fund it with more debt (which in recent weeks has gotten far more expensive, you have to get rid of costs. How do you do that? Why you announce you are firing 10,000 workers.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 16:05
Soros Reveals He Is Short The S&P 500: Warns China Will Have A Hard-Landing, Says "Fed Hike Was A Mistake"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 15:36 There’s been no shortage of commentary from market heavyweights this week thanks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, but for anyone who hasn’t yet gotten their fill of billionaire talking heads, George Soros gave a sweeping interview to Bloomberg TV on Thursday, touching on everything from China to Fed policy to Vladimir Putin to Europe’s worsening refugee crisis. The most important point - for markets anyway - came when Soros revealed that he is short the S&P, and long TSYs.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 15:30 It’s not easy being a unicorn these days. With the financial markets crashing, global consumers retrenching and competition heating up, quite a few so-called “unicorns” (high-flying, new economy tech firms) are likely to be facing difficult decisions in the coming months. It won't be just Jack Dorsey who loses his '3 commas'.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 15:10 "You get the sense that there is a broader market issue here...Complacency about the risks of contagion from the weakest segments of high yield is reminiscent of sentiment regarding subprime debt in mid-2007."
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 14:50 When it comes to watching the Hillary Clinton campaign, you need to be prepared for increasingly suicidal and irrational acts of desperation. While the most pathetic of all her shameless acts was saying she is sponsored by Wall Street as a result of the terror attacks on 9/11, the hits just keep on coming.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 14:30 “At least they are recognizing that the longtime workers who are already making more than $10 need something, but I don't think 2% is enough for employees that often make so little to begin with.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 13:52 According to stocks, a half-recession is precisely where the US was as of roughly noon yesterday, when the S&P touched an intraday low of 1812. This represents a 15% drop from the all time high close of 2,131 last summer. It also represents half the post-World War II average peak to trough decline around recession, which amounts to roughly 30%.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 13:42
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 - 13:19 Once a central bank program fails to generate a self-reinforcing rally, the mind-trick's power is broken. No one knows precisely how and when the global unraveling will impact their corner of the planet, but we do know one thing with absolute certainty: central banks are out of tricks.
The Italian financial meltdown that we have been waiting for has finally arrived. For quite a long time I have been warning my readers to watch Italy, and now people are starting to understand why. Italian banking stocks continued their collapse for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday, and nervous Italians are beginning to quietly pull large amounts of money out of the banks. In particular, Monte dei Paschi is a complete and utter basket case at this point. A staggering one-third of their loans are “non-performing”, and the stock price has fallen a staggering 57 percent since 2016 began. Monte dei Paschi is going to need a major bailout, and the same thing could be said about almost all of the largest Italian banks. But where is the money going to come from?
As rumors of trouble at Monte dei Paschi spread, Italians are getting money out of the bank while they still can.
from Pravda Report:
Saudi Ministers for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir stated that Riyadh was not manipulating the oil market.
Manipulating the oil market and doing it consistently is impossible. “If you are trying to do it, you will eventually lose and pay a huge price for that,” said the minister.
Does Saudi Arabia manipulate the oil market? Pravda.Ru asked this question to Vyacheslav Kulagin, Director of the Center for International Energy Markets at the Russian Academy of Sciences.