Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Canada Set To Unleash Negative Rates As Oil Patch Dies, Depression Deepens...

Canada’s oil “dream” is dying thanks to the inexorable slide in crude prices and as the IEA made clear earlier today, the pain is set to persist for the foreseeable future as the world “drowns in oversupply.” Now, the Bank of Canada must make a choice: cut to support the economy and the country's dying oil patch, or hold to shore up the plunging loonie. Whatever the BOC decides on Wednesday, some say the country's depression means NIRP is right around the corner.

Stocks Slammed Into Red, Give Up China Stimulus Hope Gains

Well that escalated quickly...

"Manic Depressive" Market Needs "Wholesale Panic" Before It Bottoms

"The market is manic depressive and it swings from seeing only the positives to seeing only the negatives," notes the world’s biggest distressed-debt investor, Howard Marks, but for now, as Bloomberg reports, the extremes (in risk pricing and sentiment) that usually signal opportunity (or capitulation) are not present. As Guggenheim's Scott Minerd warns, "wholesale panic" is what's needed before the market turns, and as RBS notes, "1,800 might come pretty quick."

Caught On Tape: 1,000 Dutch Villagers Storm Town Hall In Anti-Migrant Melee

Presenting The Central Banks' Munitions Arsenal (Or What's Left Of It)

2016 may see a continuation and exacerbation of the struggle between market forces reacting to the real risk factors and Central Banks’ actions/reactions. However, as Fasanara Capital estimates that the arsenal of Central Banks is ~70% exhausted...

David Einhorn's Confession: "We Lost Money Every Quarter; Never Had A Year Where So Little Went Right"

"2015 began with David’s favorite football team, the Green Bay Packers, blowing the conference championship game and a chance at the Super Bowl despite looking like the better team on the field, and holding the ball with a 12-point lead with less than 5 minutes to go. The Packers ended 2015 by getting blown out by the Arizona Cardinals 38-8 in a game where they looked like they didn’t even belong in the league.  Our year felt a lot like that. Let’s get some of the gory facts out of the way: We lost money every quarter."

When The Hockeystick Breaks: The IMF Gives Up On China Growth

One place where not even the IMF can in good conscience predict a hockeystick-like rebound in growth, is China, where the IMF now expects GDP to grow only 6.3% in 2016, dropping to an even lower 6.0% in 2017.

"What To Own In An Equity Death Spiral"

As BofA admits, "this sell-off differs from a typical growth scare in that parts of the recession playbook are failing miserably." So until we have clarity on whether or not this is a garden variety correction or a true bear market, here is BofA's advice on what to own in an "equity death spiral"

Hong Kong Dollar Plunges To Weakest Since Aug 2007

Modest overnight weakness in the Hong Kong Dollar has accelerated notably as the US session starts with USDHKD down 150 pips in the last hour, plunging to its weakest against the dollar since Aug 2007...

Dip-Buyers Beware: History Is Not On Your Side Here

With the S&P 500 Index falling nearly 10% over the past three weeks, there’ve been a lot of panicky headlines. Markets aren’t in a happy place, and the technical damage implies there may be more pain to come. However, as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore warns, for those searching for a bottom, history doesn’t offer much solace.

Why This Slump Has Legs

There may be shallow lulls in the asset markets, nothing ever only falls down in a straight line in the real world, but the debt will and must come down and be deleveraged. The process will in all likelihood lead to warfare, and to refugee movements the likes of which the world has never seen just because of the sheer humbers of people added in the past 50 years. When your children reach your age, they will not live in a world that you ever thought was possible. But they will still have to live in it, and deal with it. They will no longer have the facade you’ve been staring at for so long now, to lull them into a complacent sleep. And the Kardashians will no longer be looking so attractive either.


World liquidation has set in. The Piper must be paid. Growth is gone. This will be the story in this epic year 2016.
by Hugo Salinas Price, Plata.com, via SGT Report.com:
Hey gang, my friend TM just sent me this Hugo Salinas Price article, and since Hugo’s site won’t load today we are republishing the entire piece here. Bill Holter and I touched on some of this in our recent interview. And as TM notes, the central banks are quietly unloading before the bottom falls out. Big surprise huh? the importance of this event can not be overstated.
Here is Hugo’s must-read article:
Bloomberg is back and presents updated data on International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, as of Friday, January 8, 2016, after a hiatus on this information since December 11, 2015 (for reasons unexplained).
The data for Friday, January 8, 2016 are shocking, as expected: Total International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, expressed in US dollars, amount to $11.032 Trillion dollars as of that date.
Read More

The Punch Bowl is Gone

from TraderDan:
It has been a long time since I put up this chart comparing the S&P 500 index with the size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance sheet. The old adage that ” a picture is worth a thousand words” is most appropriate in this instance.
As long as the size of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to increase on account of their purchases of both US Treasuries as well as Mortgage Backed Securities, the liquidity boosted stocks inexorably higher, in spite of the fact that the underlying economic growth was mediocre at best. In other words, the seeming disconnect between what we were seeing on Wall Street and what Main Street was experiencing was most baffling to many observers. If one looked only at the stock markets, they would no doubt come away believing that this economy was one of the best in decades. That was in sharp contrast to the struggling US consumer dealing with relatively stagnant wages and rising health care costs and a employment picture that was not nearly as robust as the headline numbers coming out of DC would suggest.
Read More…

The DNC is “Feeling the Bern” – Debbie Wasserman Schultz Faces Serious Primary Challenge

from Liberty Blitzkrieg:
Debbie Wasserman Schultz has not had a great last couple of months. The Florida Congress member and embattled Democratic National Committee Chair has been repeatedly criticized for leading the committee both ineffectively and with a heavy hand, and for an alleged bias toward Hillary Clinton that has made the party’s presidential debates few and far between—one reason why the Republican candidates have dominated the political discussion. The progressive wing of the party base is volubly getting fed up with her.
Now, if the increased calls for her to step down from her post as party head weren’t enough, Wasserman Schultz is also facing the prospect of a tough primary challenge from the left. Liberal economist and longtime Wall Street–reform advocate Tim Canova announced last week that he will challenge Wasserman Schultz in the August 30 primary in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District. Touting a platform that closely mirrors Bernie Sanders’s, Canova hopes that the energy Sanders has roused nationally could work to his advantage in the South Florida district. Given Wasserman Schultz’s prominence, the primary could turn into a referendum pitting the progressive wing of the Democratic Party against its establishment wing, in much the way the (successful) primary challenge by another economist, Dave Brat, against then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was a test of strength between the Republicans’ factions.
Read More…

Politicians’ Class-Privilege: Armed Security

by Jon Rappoport, Activist Post:
A winding circus tour through the ever-popular gun issue. Logic, polemic, non-sequiturs, popcorn, and burning-ass syndrome. If you can’t have guns, you can have mind control. Who is the ‘we’ in ‘we have to stop killing each other’
“After a shooting spree, they always want to take the guns away from the people who didn’t do it. I sure as hell wouldn’t want to live in a society where the only people allowed guns are the police and the military.” (William Burroughs, Grand Street no. 37, 1992)
Let me state, for the record, that I’m not in favor of selling guns at 7-Elevens or from street vending machines. There are, however, a few nagging questions about gun ownership I want to scratch, claw, and flagellate, so follow along as I try to take apart a weird, wacky, and wonderful subject.
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The Economy Is So Great That Walmart Is Closing 154 U.S. Stores In 2016: Here’s The Full List

See the complete list inside and why Walmart says it is closing 269 stores nationwide.
by Mac Torrence, Patch:
Walmart will close 269 stores worldwide, including 154 in the United States, as part of what the company is calling “portfolio management,” Walmart announced Friday.
The global retail giant, known for being a one-stop-shop for buying just about anything at a discounted rate, said financial performance and “strategic alignment with long-term plans” went into consideration when considering which locations to close.
The closings will affect 16,000 workers globally and 10,000 in the United States. They will have priority for open positions at nearby stores that remain open.
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Sheriff Clarke: ‘President Obama and Mrs. Bill Clinton, They Are Anti-Gun Bigots’

by Michael W. Chapman, CNSnews:

In the ongoing national debate about gun control, Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr. said that President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were “anti-gun bigots,” and that he personally wants to see “as many law-abiding citizens” as possible to be armed to help “beat back” the violence.
On Fox’s Hannity, Sheriff Clarke said the Democratic Party is a rival group to the National Rifle Association. He then said, “as far as President Obama and Mrs. Bill Clinton, they are anti-gun bigots. They are utterly intolerant to anybody else’s view when it comes to — other than their own when it comes to the 2nd Amendment, the shooting sports and self-defense.”
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