When will the “nothing is happening” crowd finally wake up?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 09:37 It appears the combination of another debt limit fight and government shutdown tearing his party apart along with the final arrival of a pope (after 3 tries), aides have reported that...
The initial shock hasn’t dawned on the public yet, but it will. The reality is that the U.S. is sinking back into recession. I think we have reached the inflection point, and the bad news is coming out. This will obviously terrify the Fed, which has been trying with all its might to push up core inflation to the much desired 2%. Soon I think the newspapers will start breaking the disturbing news: the fact that the US has sunk back into recession after six years of pumping by the Fed. So what’s next?
The Feds raising rates is out of the question. What’s more likely is the return of QE, because the Fed is terrified of the current position in which deflation is taking over from the much desired inflation. It would not surprise me to see QE4 established as the Fed addresses the deflationary trend.
In bear markets the items tend to go from a big number to the next big number on the downside. The key here may be the Industrial Average, which is holding just above 16,000. It would not surprise me to see it move into the 15,000s tomorrow, and move down to test 15,000 even. We also have 4 distribution days on the S&P and the Nasdaq.
I’m a listener for a long time. I tried to prepare as much as I could also by buying your stock but am still preparing, which will take me a few more months to finish everything.
I listened to the last interview of Bill Holter who said that you both believe that there will be a collapse in September/October (before the winter). My question is, do you believe this will be the next big crash or already the final crash which will activate the reset of the current system?
It would be really nice if you could share us your opinion since we are a small group of Germans trying to prepare and understand as much as possible.
Thank you and regards,
This is a great question. We can give you our opinion but it is just that, opinion. No one has an all seeing crystal ball. We do believe the next crash will be the “final crash” that sweeps away the current Western financial system. The problems as you know are numerous, too much debt on all levels, undercapitalized banks and brokers in relation to assets carried, grossly bloated derivative balances and counterparty risk, not to mention the fact that no currency in the world is anything more than a “promise to pay” …more of that very same currency.
We believe what will come very (and is happening now before your very eyes) soon is a “holiday” but not the “fun type”. Markets, banking, credit and thus distribution of goods will break down. A re set of prices and relative values will emerge along with new currencies aplenty. We think the key to the re opening of markets will hinge on how fast new currencies are brought forth and whether they are trusted. Any new currency will need “confidence” to be accepted by the masses. “Confidence” will be gold! Gold has been coming back into the system for years, not away from.
The last 4 years has been a last gasp effort on the part of central banks to retain the current system and push gold away from it. The West has substantially lost gold to the East and the reason why we believe the East will emerge as “wealthy” and why the West will need to get “back to work” to better a crashed standard of living. This will take many years if not several generations to accomplish.
As for “preparing”, move as quickly as you can and do the best you can do. No matter who, how smart, or how wealthy you are, you will forget or miss something. DO NOT beat yourself up! You are at least awake and aware of what is coming, can you imagine yourself completely unaware and thus not prepared for anything at all? Just do the best you can do, it is all you can ask of yourself. Good luck and Godspeed to all!
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 09:24 Yellen just reset the market's expectations, and in fact set the bar for disappointment even higher. As FTN rates strategist Jim Vogel very correctly notes, "financial market risk is calmer this morning, but Yellen actually elevated the stakes with her detailed speech yesterday afternoon." What does that mean? He explains: "Yellen could be spot on this year but until the hike actually occurs, risk asset volatility veers once again to the upside with respect to US monetary policy."
Germany is surprisingly quitting the anti-Putin Alliance created by the United States: Germany now officially welcomes Moscow’s readiness to engage with Syria and launches an initiative to end the war with the Russians and the French. Thus, the stream of refugees is to be stopped. Germany put thousands of soldiers on standby.
Germany surprising quits Alliance with the United States, which wanted to prevent a participation of Russia in Syria.
“Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen told der Spiegel, they Welcome Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s involvement in the fight against the extremist Islamic State. It is in the common interest, to combat the IS,” she said.
SurReal": Brazil's Currency Stages Largest Rally In Seven Years On Central Bank "Whatever It Takes" MomentSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 09:00 “There’s a saying that helps explain our mood around here. When the sea is this turbulent, the only thing you can do is sit on the sand and watch. It’s not time to get in a boat."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 08:41 While the final Q2 GDP revision released moments ago by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is a largely meaningless number looking at the performance of the economy some 3 months ago, it will still set the momentum for today's trade, and with its surging from a 3.7% first revision print to 3.9%, surpassing expectations of a 3.7% print, means that concerns (or perhaps hopes) for a rate hike are once again back on the table.
"There IS An Alternative" - Since The End Of QE3, Financial Market Returns Are Negative... Except The US DollarSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 08:10 "The big upside for both corporate bonds & corporate stocks has subsided as the liquidity story has peaked. Of greater note, the recent big reversal in the performance of assets directly linked to the bull market on Wall Street. Private equity managers and large asset managers saw their stocks appreciate 36% & 32% respectively between QE1 and the end of QE3. Since the end of QE3, the annualized returns are -10% & -18% respectively."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 07:45 "By relaxing constraints on other economic actors, central-bank support may create opportunities for them to shirk their responsibilities. In turn, this may render it more difficult for the central bank to withdraw its exceptional measures. The road to central bankers’ hell may be paved with good intentions."
- Global Markets Rebound on Yellen Speech (WSJ)
- Obama and Putin to meet; Syria and Ukraine vie for attention (Reuters)
- Obama to host China's President Xi amid simmering tensions (Reuters)
- Don't Fall for It, Xi! Chinese Take to Web to Scorn U.S.—and China, Too (BBG)
- Yellen Confirms Fed Still on Track to Raise Rates This Year (BBG)... but is still China dependent?
- Abe's New Economic Plan Confounds Analysts (BBG)
- It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero (BBG)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2015 - 06:55 The market, which clearly ignored the glaring contradictions in Yellen's speech which said that overseas events should not affect the Fed's policy path just a week after the Fed statement admitted it is "monitoring developments abroad", and also ignored Yellen explicit hint that NIRP is coming (only the size is unclear), and focused on the one thing it wanted to hear: a call to buy the all-critical USDJPY carry pair - because more dollar strength apparently is what the revenue and earnings recessioning S&P500 needs - which after trading around 120 in the past few days, had a 100 pip breakout overnight, hitting 121 just around 5am, in the process pushing US equity futures some 25 points higher at last check.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/24/2015 - 23:54 Did Goldman just hand out the blueprint to crush the next "Lehman" and unleash the next global bailout? Read on to find out.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/24/2015 - 21:21 The evening started on a high note when Janet Yellen's survival giving a speech warranted a 100 point rip in Dow futures (and USD strength). Then Japan stepped up with its first deflationary CPI print since April 2013 (which of course was met with stock-buying because moar QQE is overdue but that soon faded). EM FX is tumbling further (with Malaysia leading the charge). Chinese credit risk jumps tro a new 2 year high (as SHIBOR remains entirely manipulated flat) as China halts its 4-day devaluation with a tiny nudge stronger in the Yuan fix.
"Doomsday" Arctic Seed Vault Tapped For First Time In History As Syrian Civil War Threatens BiodiversitySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/24/2015 - 20:50
A recent media report about Washington’s plans to upgrade nuclear bombs in Western Germany resulted in Russia expressing concern, but the United States denied allegations of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).< On Tuesday, German TV station ZDF cited a Pentagon budget document saying that the US Air Force would deploy modernized B-61 nuclear bombs to Germany's Buchel air force base this fall in order to replace the 20 weapons already at the site. Following the announcement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the possible US move as a potential "violation of the strategic balance in Europe," that would demand a Russian response. Read More
On his first visit to the U.S., the Pope is acting more like a left wing politician than a messenger of Christ. He has scolded Congress on everything from global warming to immigration. Most of his criticism is directed at Republicans though.
There was not a single criticism given to the Castro regime in Cuba, and last I checked, their government is communist and atheist. I have been following the intense coverage and reading the Pope’s quotes, and I have yet to hear one public mention of Christ. I am a former Catholic that left the church after the pedophile priest scandal and the cover-up that went all the way to the Vatican. I like Catholics and have no problem with the main points of the Catholic Doctrine. The five main parts of the Catholic Doctrine are: Christ is the Son of God, Christ was born of the Virgin Mary, Christ died on the cross and shed his blood for the sins of the world, Christ rose again from the dead, and Christ will come again to judge the living and the dead. Please notice how ALL five major points of the Catholic Doctrine (which I totally agree with) are centered on Jesus Christ. While the Pope has mentioned God a few times in his public quotes, I have not heard a single quote that mentions the name of CHRIST. WHY??
Let us start with an historical fact. Treason and betrayal by the highest levels is a common feature of history, whether it is Judas vs Jesus, Brutus vs Julius Caesar, Benedict Arnold, the Rosenbergs, Jonathan Pollard, Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen. It is just a fact of life. It does happen.
Back in 1996, when Bill Clinton was running for re-election, he authorized the transfer of highly sensitive technology to China. This technology had military applications and allowed China to close the gap in missile performance with the United States. The transfers were opposed and severely criticized by the Defense Department.
At the same time Bill Clinton was transferring this technology to China, huge donations began to pour into his re-election campaign from the US companies allowed to sell the technology to China, and from American citizens of Chinese descent.
The United States Air Force (USAF) is going to station 20 new B61-12 nuclear bombs in Germany, each 80 times more destructive than the one used on Hiroshima, a report says.
The nukes will be deployed to Luftwaffe’s Büchel Air Base in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate, which is already host to USAF nuclear bombs stored there since 2007 under a nuclear sharing deal, Germany’s ZDF public television network reported on Tuesday.
FATCA, officially known as the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, is probably the worst law that most Americans don’t know about.
I’ve written about this monstrous law repeatedly, most recently here. But now, it looks as if the prospects for FATCA’s implementation could be throttled by the courts of meek and mild-mannered Canada, of all places.
If you haven’t heard of FATCA, you’re not alone. US citizens living in the US who don’t invest outside the US aren’t affected by the law. But if you’re a US citizen living in another country, or one who invests outside the US, FATCA is very bad news, indeed.
While mainstream media routinely uses shock imagery to induce fear over all manner of threats to America and its allies, some independent Internet journalists are being restricted by advertising policies which penalize them for countering the establishment view.
A disturbing trend seems to have emerged around March, 2015. On the 24th, long-time YouTube activist Luke Rudkowski from WeAreChange.com announced his suspicions that his YouTube Adsense account was targeted for an extreme downturn.
In the last few days we noticed our YouTube numbers take a massive down turn while the majority of our new videos and top videos have been demonetized with no explanation at all. We looked at our website and social media numbers and they were better than ever but for some reason – our YouTube channel took a massive hit.
Kashi will pay $4 million in a false advertising lawsuit put forth in Florida. The lawsuit claimed that Kellogg’s, the parent company for Kashi, advertised an “all natural” (GM-free) product that was, in reality, full of genetically modified ingredients.
The settlement resolves a class action lawsuit against the company alleging that its products were falsely labeled as being “all natural” and containing “nothing artificial,” suggesting that they were free of genetically modified organisms.
Multiple Kashi products contain GM soy and GM corn, and a district judge argued that this “sufficiently alleges that a reasonable consumer would expect a product labeled ‘all natural’ to be free of GMOs.”
On Thursday an Islamic State suicide bomber disguised as a woman killed ten Muslim worshippers performing Eid al-Adha prayers in a Houthi mosque in Taiz, a city in the southwest of Yemen.
The ISIS group in Yemen said the terror attack was intended to kill “rejectionists,” a term Sunni Wahhabists use to describe Shia Muslims.
“In a security operation facilitated by God as part of the acts of revenge for Muslims from the rejectionist Houthi, brother Abu Omar al-Hadidi waded into a crowd of apostate Houthis at al-Balili temple, detonated his suicide belt causing dozens to perish or to be injured,” the statement said.
Ten Houthi worshippers were killed and medics at the scene reported at least 25 were wounded. A Reuters photo showed a man carrying a child injured by the explosion.