Thursday, September 3, 2015

Bob Shiller Fears "Substantial Decline" Sees Dow 'Fair Value' Around 11,000

"This is a dangerous time," warns Nobel laureate Bob Schiller as he warns of the false signal that typical P/E ratios are misleading and in fact his CAPE ratio (looking through the cycle) implies "fair value" for The Dow should trade around 11,000 and around 1300 for the S&P 500. "There is a risk of a substantial decline," he adds, warning that the recent rebound "maybe someone's good will effort to stabilize the market," and in fact the market's valuation is high now and people are over-exposed.

Stocks Erase Draghi "Moar QE" Gains As USDJPY Tumbles

Draghi - we have a problem. They hoped, he came, they sold. US stocks and bonds knee-jerk rallied on the "expanding QE" promise from Draghi thi8s morning but all those gains have been erased now as USDJPY 'fun-durr-mentals' drag it lower. If not even the latest reduction in European economic forecasts can push stocks higher, we central banks may have a real problem on their hands.

This Nazi Should be Tried for Treason and Shot...

West Point Professor Calls For Military Strikes On Journalists Critical Of War On Terror

An assistant professor from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point recently declared that professionals critical of the “War on Terror” constitute a “treasonous” opposition that should be subject to military force.

The Bigger-est Hockeystick Ever: Presenting The ECB's Latest Inflation Expectations

Back in March, we mocked the ECB's inflation forecasts with a post titled "Mario Draghi Reveals Biggest. Hockeystick. Ever!", which highlighted the ECB's ridiculous expectation that inflation would soar from 0.0% in 2015 to 2016. We though no other hockeystick could possibly surpass this. We were wrong.

Stocks Surge As ECB Expands QE Monetization Limits, Boost Purchase Threshold From 25% to 33% Per Issue

ABN Amro was right: moments ago Mario Draghi announced that, just as the Pavlovian Dogs were salivating, the ECB would not leave markets hanging, and while not boosting QE in size, announced he would increase the amount of monetizable assets, i.e., the ECB's share limit per CUSIP equivalent, from 25% to 33%. The result: an immediate surge in both stocks (ES jumping 21 points) and bonds (the 10Y dropping to 2.156%).

Initial Jobless Claims Jumps Most In 2 Months - Unchanged Since End Of QE3

Initial jobless claims have risen for 5 of the last 6 weeks with the last week showing a 12k rise to 282k. This is the biggest weekly rise in 2 months and raises the claims print overall to 2-month highs. Perhaps most remarkable is that initial jobless claims are now back up to unchanged since the end of QE3.

Mario Draghi's Panic Button, Birthday Presser - Live Feed

Mario Draghi holds court (on his birthday, no less) in a closely watched post-meeting presser as markets hope collapsing inflation expectations, heightened volatility, EM chaos, and China turmoil will be enough to force the ECB's hand.

For The Average American, A Modest 10% Correction Is Now A "Market Crash"

Total 2015 Job Cuts To Be Biggest Since 2009: Challenger

Moments ago Challenger reported August job cuts, which at 41,186 were a 60% drop from the 115,730 reported last month (the highest since September 2011), which however was driven by a one-time mass layoffs last month in military staffing. Putting August in its correct perspective, the number was 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,010 planned job cuts were announced. So far in 2015 employers have announced 434,554 job cuts: that is up 31 percent from the 332,931 planned layoffs in the first eight months of 2014. What is worst, and what reveals the true picture of the economy, is that with monthly totals averaging 54,319, 2015 job cuts are on track to exceed 650,000 for the yeajesusr, which would be the highest year-end tally since 2009 (1,272,030).

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Focus Turns To Draghi Press Conference

As expected, there was no change in the ECB's three key interest rates, with the main refi, lending and deposit rates staying where they were at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20%, respectively.

In Risky Move, Riksbank Holds Rates But Warns Will Cut If ECB Boosts QE

Riksbank won’t be passive if ECB makes big changes in its policy, Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves says at press conference.

Frontrunning: September 3

  • U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
  • Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
  • Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
  • IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
  • Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
  • China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
  • Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)


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