Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 16:25
"there is a sense that policy is being priced to “fail” rather than succeed... why should equities always rise in value? Why should debt holders be expected to afford their debt burden? There are plenty of alternative viable equilibria with SPX half its value, longevity liabilities in default and debt deflation in abundance. In those equilibria traditional QE ceases to work and the only road back to what we think is the current desired equilibrium is via true helicopter money via fiscal stimulus where there are no independent central banks.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 18:15 "If the pace of FX intervention remains at USD86bn per month, we estimate that the PBoC could lose up to USD510bn of its reserves between June and December 2015, which would represent a nonnegligible decline of 14%."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 16:45 What are the most crowded trades currently (and hence where the next round of carnage is coming from)? Long the US Dollar? Short US Treasuries? Long VIX? Think again...
The major indexes are up nearly 200% since the March 2009 low. Today Wall Street has plenty of cheerleaders, but a lot less to cheer about: Stocks are far less attractive than they were on that day in 2009 and this bear has a lot longer to run.
First, stocks that were over-hated in 2009 are now over-loved. This is evidenced by margin debt which is at all-time highs (notice extreme negative credit balance shown in red for the years 2000, 2007 and the extremes of 2015!).
Nearly 30% of Democrats in Alabama would like to see Donald Trump win the election.
Between August 29 and September 1, Gravis Marketing asked 1,616 participants in Alabama, “assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?”
Trump took a large lead at 38%. This number nearly matched the numbers of all other candidates combined (38.8%). Interestingly, Trump scored 28% with self-identified Democrats, a fact that undoubtedly has the political elite worried.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 15:17 Over the past 48 hours or so, we’ve seen what certainly appears to be visual confirmation of a non-negligible Russian military presence in Syria. Going into the weekend however, Russia had yet to confirm publicly that it had commenced military operations in the region despite the fact that it’s the next closest thing to common knowledge that at the very least, the Kremlin has provided logistical support and technical assistance for a period that probably spans two or more years. But on Friday, Vladimir Putin looks to have confirmed the scope of Russia’s military role, even if he stopped short of admitting that Russian troops are engaged in combat.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 22:00 Awareness about the concept of money is making a comeback. Gone are the decades in which the global citizenry was fooled to leave this subject to economists, governments and banks – a setup that has proven to end in disaster. The crisis in 2008 has spawned debate about what money is, where it comes from and where it should come from.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 21:15 Every day, the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil, which is worth $4.2 billion. Oil is one of the world’s most basic necessities. At least for now, all modern countries rely on oil and its derivatives as the backbone of their economies. However, the price of oil can have significant swings. These changes in price can have profound implications depending on whether an economy is a net importer or net exporter of crude.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 20:30 The destruction of honest financial markets by the Fed and other central banks has created a class of hedge fund hot shots that are truly hard to take. At length, both the epic bond bubble and the monumental stock bubble so recklessly fueled by the Fed and the other central banks after September 2008 will burst in response to the deflationary tidal wave now cresting. Needless to say, that eventuality will be the death knell for the risk parity trade. It will cause the volatility seeking algos to eat their own portfolios alive. Leon Cooperman and his momo chasing compatriots will soon be praying for an event as mild as October 1987.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 19:45 China’s islanding building on the four-mile-long and two-mile-wide Subi Reef in the South China Sea has put The US in a tight spot. To protect its ally from China’s aggression, The US will be left with little choice but to constrain China by military means. However, the US won't directly engage China in the war in the foreseeable future, because the US dominates China with its superior naval and air force and the only way for China to level the playing field is to apply nuclear weapons. The nuclear nature of Sino-American warfare will make both the world no.1 and no.2 economy the fallen giants. So there is a possibility that The US might use its oil weapon instead to strike at the core of China’s weakness - it’s huge dependence on oil import.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 19:00 We are our own worst enemies...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 17:30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 16:00 The great problem with corporate capitalism is that publicly owned companies have short time horizons. As a consequence of the short-sightedness of reformers and Congress, the annual salaries of top executives were capped at $1 million. Amounts in excess are not deductible for the company as an expense. The exception is “performance-related” pay, which has no limit. The result is that the major part of executive pay comes in the form of performance bonuses. Performance means a rise in the price of the company’s shares. The gains in executive bonuses and shareholder capital gains were achieved by destroying the economic prospects of millions of Americans and by reducing the growth potential of the US economy. In the long-run this means the demise of the US as a world power...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 - 15:15 Threat & priorities...
Privatization and corporate ownership of our food and water is what is at stake. The greed that has allowed companies to create patents on food and to siphon off water and sell it back to the world is as disturbing as ever. Following are ways which a cabal is trying to control 2 of our most basic needs – food and water.
The Overtaking of the Food Supply
A cabal controls our food supply. If you haven’t heard about the massive Svalbard ‘doomsday’ seed bank that individuals and companies like Bill Gates, Monsanto Corporation, Syngenta Foundation, and the Government of Norway have created, then you might want to check it out. The Svalbard seed bank seems to foreshadow a massive food crisis on this planet.
The Gold Report: In honor of Labor Day, let’s discuss unemployment. You estimated that when all workers are counted, the unemployment rate in July was 23% compared to the government’s reported rate of 5.4%. What is different about the job market today than before the recession?
John Williams: In a normal economic recovery, people who have lost their jobs start working again as the economy improves. That hasn’t happened this time, at least not to the extent suggested by a 5.4% unemployment rate (U3), where the government’s headline definition of “unemployed” is quite narrow. To be counted among the headline unemployed, you have to be out of work and actively to have looked for work in the last four weeks. If you want a job, but have given up looking, the government counts you as a “discouraged worker” or “marginally attached worker” and you don’t show up in the headline number.
Inflammation is part of the immune system’s response to defend you against microbial infections. It is the body’s first line of defence against invasion by micro-organisms such as bacteria and viruses, and it is activated rapidly after infection.
Inflammation in the brain causes neurons to work slowly, slowing down mental acuity, recall, and reflexes. Sluggish neurons also shut down the production of energy in the cells. This means that cells fatigue easily, and you may lose your ability to focus for long periods of time.
Brain fog, also commonly known as brain fatigue, when this occurs, you experience a lack of focus, poor memory recall and reduced mental acuity.