Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World From The Next Recession

"We believe a global recession scenario has become the most likely global macroeconomic scenario for the next two years or so. Helicopter money drops would be the best instrument to tackle a downturn in all DMs. We expect to see QE #N, where N could become a large integer, as part of the monetary policy response in the US and the UK, and QEE2 in Japan."

Dow Up Almost 700 Points From Friday's Lows

Nothing to see here, move along. Amid dismally low volume, it appears the JPY-driven rampathon continues... But it may just have run out of greater fool stops (at last week's highs) to run - unless USDJPY 122 comes soon...

The Endless Emergency - Why It's Always ZIRP Time In The Casino

In a word, the official unemployment rate is now in what has been the macroeconomic end zone for the past 45 years. Might this suggest that the emergency is over and done? Self-evidently, the only “incoming” information that can matter between now and next Wednesday is the stock market averages.  If the Fed takes no action in September, it’s hard to imagine any economic or jobs report that wouldn’t support ZIRP or near-ZIRP in the minds of the money printers and the Wall Street gamblers they pleasure.

Gartman Covers His Shorts, Goes "Marginally Net Long" One Day After Calling For Bear Market

"... we came into yesterday’s session decently net short; not aggressively so, but not marginally so either. However, it made no difference; we were short in a rampaging bullish move and we had no choice but to rush to cover much of the net short position immediately upon the opening of trade on the NYSE... We’ve no choice. The market has spoken and it has  spoken loudly."
- Dennis Gartman

Spain Defense Minister Warns Army May Intervene Unless "Catalonia Obeys The Rules"

With Spain's Catalan region on the verge of electing pro-independence parties and seeking autonomy from central rule, the government (clearly worried) has ramped up the rhetoric on what consequences lie ahead. In a rather stunning outburst for a supposed democracy, CNA reports, the Spanish Defence Minister, Pedro Morenés, assured that the army won’t act in Catalonia as long as "everybody fulfills their duty." The Catalan minister for the presidency exclaimed Morenes statement was "out of this world," and could only be made by "someone who is afraid of democracy." The army will "enforce the Constitution," Morenes concludes, unless "members strictly obey the rules." As one pro-independence minister opined, "threatening and trying to intimidate means that you are only left with stupidity."

30Y Treasury Yield Bursts Above 3.00% - 6-Week Highs

30Y Treasury yields are up 40bps from the Black Monday flash-crash panic low yields, breaking back above 3.00% for the first time since the end of July.  It appears China selling (and rate locks) is trumping Element Capital's buying (for now).

Global Equity Index Hanging On Lower Precipice

This key barometer of global equities dropped to a level that it could ill-afford to lose. And while a bounce should transpire from here, the fact that the index has been traversing this level for the past 8 days reminds us that significant potential risk awaits should it fall off the precipice.

RANSQUAWK BoE Preview: The minutes release is expected to once again show an 8-1 vote split in favour of keeping rates on hold

• All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 375bln
• Headline UK CPI printed at 0.1% for July, still well below the BoE’s mandated 2% target
• The accompanying minutes release is expected to once again show an 8-1 vote split in favour of keeping rates on hold

Global Risk-On Euphoria: Japan's Nikkei Soars 7.7%, Biggest One Day Move In Seven Years; Futures Surge

And to think all it took was Gartman going short of stocks in 25% correction terms yesterday...

Retail Silver Market Has Seized Up-David Morgan

from USA Watchdog:

Silver expert David Morgan says prices of the white metal may be low, but demand is huge.
Morgan explains, “I did a survey of many of the top wholesalers and retailers in the country and came to the conclusion that the retail side of the market has basically seized up. One of the biggest mints in the U.S. is backlogged about 4 million ounces. You have two other main government mints that are basically on halt and not producing, or trying to catch up. You have huge premiums in the silver bar market and extremely high premiums in the silver bag market, or what is referred to in the industry as junk silver. Dealers are paying $5 above spot to source silver bags. What that equates to for the cost of silver is about $19.25 an ounce, and we are in the mid-$14 range for an ounce of silver. So, obviously, there is a huge demand that cannot be met with the current supply in the retail market.”
Morgan also says silver is an inflation adjusted deal. Morgan contends, “The average mining cost used to be about $22 an ounce, but with the oil price dropping, it’s now about $15.
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Fukushima News 9/8/15: Tropical Storm Pounds Nuclear Meltdowns; Pacific Ocean= Radioactive Toilet

from dutchsinse:

The Firing Line Between East and West is Now RED HOT

from TheWealthWatchman:

What a Million Dollars Buys in Australia’s Housing Market

from Wolf Street:
A million dollars will not buy much in Australia’s overpriced housing market. In Sydney, the largest Australian city of around 5 million people, house prices were up 20% over the past year. Here’s a look at what one million or so will buy in Sydney.
Newtown is an inner city suburb about 4 kilometres from the CBD. It was once working class, but not anymore. The median house price is $1.2M [all prices in AUD; at the time of writing AUD1.00=USD0.69]. For that you will get something similar to one of the terrace houses below. These are very small, usually with no yard or parking. Thus rubbish bins are tastefully stored by the front door. Parking is difficult. It was hard to find a house to photograph that was not obscured by cars.
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by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrganblog:
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1120.40 down $0.20 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.75 up 21 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1121.50
Silver: $14.78
In this commentary I have spent a lot of time discussing Quantitative tightening by China coupled with the threat of an increase in rates by the USA. Both of these countries can be viewed as in the mode of tightening ie. removing liquidity from the markets. The two entities that are increasing QE and thus adding liquidity is the ECB and Japan. The problem with the latter two entities is the fact that they are running out of bonds to monetize so they too may be finished from increasing liquidity. I have provided many important commentaries on this subject. I urge you to take your time read them. You will be glad you did.
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BRICS Men vs American Manchilds

from Truth Never Told:

The Truth Movement Holds Critical Answers for Humanity

from ZenGardner:
With all the mainstream media mental junk food now feeding humanity almost daily guaranteed lies in order to secure the stated agendas of the new world order, I want to pose a divider question. That’s a name I made up for a question that is sure to divide people. Nevertheless, a question that deserves attention and consideration from all critical thinkers and truth seekers. Today I pose this simple question only because it cuts through much of today’s subjectivism, it tramples on people’s belief systems, religions, opinions, political persuasion and someday it may even determine whether you live or die. It’s a question we should all be able to answer with understanding and conviction because when we do we’ll realize that doing can unlock many answers for humanity. The question is – What exactly is the truth movement?
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China Now Dumping Dollar From Oil Trade For Yuan

from X22 Report:

An Arrest Warrant for Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu When He Arrives in London on September 9

Plan B: A Citizens’ Arrest
by Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research:
Below is the answer of the Petitions Team of the British parliament concerning the petition, calling for Netanyahu’s arrest, signed by more than 105,000 British citizens and residents.
It was sent out at 9.40pm GMT on September 8, 2015.
It has all the appearances of a “fast track decision” taken on the 8th of September, one day before the scheduled arrival of Israel’s Prime Minister and War Criminal Benyamin Netanyahu.
Was pressure exerted on the petitions team to issue this abridged statement and endorsement of PM Cameron?
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S.H.O.C.K. FUSION CENTER: POLICE BECOME BIG BROTHER, Force Restaurants to Record and Stream Video to Police!

from grindall61:

Among Major Economies, Only the Chinese Numbers Are More Suspect

from Jesse’s Café Américain:
On the surface this report shows solid economic growth for the US economy during the second quarter of 2015. Unfortunately, all of the usual caveats merit restatement:
— A significant portion of the “solid growth” in this headline number could be the result of understated BEA inflation data. Using deflators from the BLS results in a more modest 2.33% growth rate. And using deflators from the Billion Prices Project puts the growth rate even lower, at 1.28%.
— Per capita real GDP (the number we generally use to evaluate other economies) comes in at about 1.6% using BLS deflators and about 0.6% using the BPP deflators. Keep in mind that population growth alone (not brilliant central bank maneuvers) contributes a 0.72% positive bias to the headline number.
— Once again we wonder how much we should trust numbers that bounce all over the place from revision to revision. One might expect better from a huge (and expensive) bureaucracy operating in the 21st century.
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Putin Aide’s Advice: Default on Foreign Debt, Put Reserves into Gold and BRICs Bonds

by Chris Powell, GATA:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Russia’s government long has understood gold’s secret power over the international monetary system. In an address in June 2004 at the summer meeting of the London Bullion Market Association at the Kempinsky Hotel in Moscow, the Russian central bank’s deputy chairman, Oleg Mozhaiskov, spoke only four words in English: “Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee”:
As far as GATA itself knew at that time, it had never had any contact with anyone in Russia or anyone connected with the Russian government.
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