Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Next Financial Crisis Won't Be Like The Last One

It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets. The core paradox - that central banks can't control both domestic and global FX markets with the same set of policies - cannot be resolved by printing $1 trillion, or even $5 trillion. Printing money to fix one problem leads to another set of problems that are only made worse by additional money-printing.

Business Inventories Grow At Slowest Pace Since Jan, Sales-Ratio Signals Recession Imminent

Following June's 0.8% surge in business inventories (the most in 4 years) which surged inventrory-to-sales to 1.37x - the highest since 2009 - July's data confirms the recession looms large as inventory accumulation appears to have hit its limit, up only 0.1% MoM (inventory-to-sales hovers at 1.36x - historic recession levels). Remembering that this data is lagged by 2 months (in the face of disastrous Empire Fed inventory collapse, auto production collapse and retail sales weakness), it appears the "if we build it, they will come" economy just got slapped in the face with the reality that 'Field of Dreams' was a fiction, just like The US 'Recovery'. Time for The Fed to hike rates?

The Most Loved Stock Market Rally In History

One survey recently recorded the highest level of expectations for a market rally in its history. If indeed a cyclical top in stocks has been formed, or is in the process of forming, this data series will likely require either a greater crash or, more likely, much more time to fully correct its bullish excess. We would not be surprised if such a scenario unfolded. If that’s the case, you’ll really see what a hated market looks like.

China Stocks Drop Most Since Late August, BOJ Disappoints Bailout Addicts; US Futures Flat

Almost two weeks after we explained why any hope for a QQE boost by the BOJ is a myth, and that any increase in monetization will simply lead to a faster tapering and ultimately halt of Kuroda's bond purchases the market finally grasped this, when overnight the BOJ not only did not easy further as some - certainly the USDJPY - had expected, but kept its QE at the JPY80 trillion level and failed to offer any hints of further easing that many had hoped for, pushing the Nikkei down from up almost 400 point intraday to virtually unchanged and sending the USDJPY back under 120. JGBs also traded lower on concerns there may not be much more QE to frontrun.


Get your kids ready to become cannon fodder for the Zionist Banker Bastards...

The End Game Is Near, U.S. Pushing Propaganda To Start WWIII

from X22Report:

Russia FM Lavrov Calls Out US For Protecting ISIS; Says US Has ‘Ulterior Motives’ In Syria

by Brandon Turbeville, Activist Post:
What has been well-known amongst informed observers for quite some time is now becoming so obvious that it is almost impossible to hide except from the most gullible members of the general public – that fact the United States is not only not interested in fighting ISIS, but they are actively protecting and shielding it.
In truth, the US relationship with ISIS goes much deeper since the US created, armed, and trained the terrorist organization from its inception for the purpose of destroying the secular government of Bashar al-Assad and providing a bogeyman for the fearful masses back home to justify a greater police state and foreign military adventurism.
Read More

Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Deploys Army, Germany Loses Patience

Investors Paranoid That Other Investors Are Even More Paranoid

Let's hope Dr. Yellen has the right medication this Thursday to cure the paranoid investing world of its latest Fed-induced psychosis.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Economic analogies using bovine ownership to explain various governmental models around the world.  Some serious, some tongue in cheek.

Stocks & Bond Yields Surge As Bad-News-Is-Good-News Madness Returns (For Now)

It appears a slew of terrible data is just enough to re-ignite the bad-news-is-good-news... more data to come soon.

Recession Looms As Empire Manufacturing Collapse Show No Signs Of A Bounce

Despite some strangely optimistic expectation of a -0.5 print, September Empire Manufacturing printed -14.67, showing absolutely no hockeynesian dead-cat bounce mean-reversion. Hovering at the worst levels since April 2009, the underlying data is a total disaster. New Orders remain firmly negative and inventories collapse (who could have seen that coming?), and even more concerningly, employment and average workweek plunged into negative territory for the first time in over a year. Simply put, this report suggests total carnage in the manufacturing sector and, just as we have pointed out (most recently here and here), the exuberant inventory over-accumulation of the past few years - from Fed-deluded malinvestment - is about to come crashing down.

Retail Sales Disappoints, Tests Recessionary Waters Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Following Gallup's and BofAML's clear indications of weak retail sales, it should be no surprise that retail sales in August disappointed printing +0.2% MoM (missing +0.3% expectations). This dragged the YoY retail sales change down to a recession-looming +1.6% print. Ironically, while most headline data missed, the GDP-dependent 'control group' rose modestly more than expected (+0.4% vs +0.3%). Since this is the last major data point before The Fed's big decision, it would appear another nail in the coffin of a rate hike was just struck.

Industrial Production Plunges Most In 3 Years As Auto-Maker "Nightmare" Comes True

Industrial Production missed expectations notably, dropping 0.4% MoM (the 6th of the last 8 months) missing expectations of a 0.2% drop (and notably weaker than the +0.9% upward revised July print). Thjis is the biggest MoM drop since August 2012. The big driver of the decline - just as we warned of nightmares ahead - was auto assemblies which plunged to a 4-year low by the most since Jan 2009. The year-over-year rise in IP is just 0.9% - flashing yet another recession-looming indicator.


by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrganblog:
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1107.90 up $4.40 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.36 down 13 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1108.80
Silver: $14.43
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
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Public School Students Are the New Inmates in the American Police State

by John Whitehead, Rutherford:

“Every day in communities across the United States, children and adolescents spend the majority of their waking hours in schools that have increasingly come to resemble places of detention more than places of learning. From metal detectors to drug tests, from increased policing to all-seeing electronic surveillance, the public schools of the twenty-first century reflect a society that has become fixated on crime, security and violence.”—Investigative journalist Annette Fuentes
In the American police state, you’re either a prisoner (shackled, controlled, monitored, ordered about, limited in what you can do and say, your life not your own) or a prison bureaucrat (police officer, judge, jailer, spy, profiteer, etc.).
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White House Reveals Student Loan Default Rate

by Mike Finger, Schiff Gold:

At the end of 2014, the New York Fed reported a surprisingly high delinquency rate for student loans – 11.3%. Now the latest data released by the White House reveals that number may in fact be dramatically higher. As the Wall Street Journal reports:
New figures covering more than 3,700 schools were released as part of the White House’s College Scorecard, which allows consumers to explore data about debt and degrees. The average repayment rate among almost 1,200 for-profit schools—meaning these students were actively paying off loans—was 61%, the lowest of any sector. The average repayment rate among all colleges was 73%.”
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Freight Goes to Heck, Now Even in the US

from Wolf Street:
The Dow Jones Transportation index has been warning us: by August 25, it was down 19% year-to-date before bouncing. It’s now off 13%. Not all is well in the transportation sector – and by extension in the global economy.
The World Trade Monitor, when I last wrote about it on July 22, painted a very un-rosy picture of global trade by having dropped the most since the Financial Crisis.
In granular detail, the weekly China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell to 820.91 on Friday, hobbling along near its multiyear low set in June. It tracks contractual rates and spot rates for shipping containers from major Chinese ports to major ports around the world. It’s 22% below where it was in February and 18% below where it had been in 1998, when it was set at 1,000!
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The Last Time this Happened was…Never

from Sovereign Man:
Every few centuries a new technology is invented and adopted that fundamentally changes everything about how a society is structured and organized.
The Agricultural Revolution allowed early humankind to stop being nomadic hunters and establish the roots of civilization in a single location.
The invention of the moveable type printing press in the 1400s (the Internet of its day) created a rapid spread of ideas that spawned lasting political revolutions across Europe.
The Industrial Revolution lifted millions of people out of poverty, empowered the middle class, and finally ended the feudal system.
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STUNNING: What Caused The Bank Of England To Halt Gold Leasing In A Panic?

from KingWorldNews:
Today King World News takes a look at what caused the Bank of England to halt gold leasing in a panic.
If you look at the following chart, which is quite astonishing, it shows the Bank of England halted gold leasing in 2008, as fear gripped the world and the level of financial panic was skyrocketing:
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Miss South Carolina Blasts Holes Through Anti-Gun Question

by Adan Salazar, Infowars:
A gun question featured on last night’s 2016 Miss America pageant received an unexpected response from one of the contestants.
Asked her view on the current issue of so-called “gun violence,” Miss South Carolina, Daja Dial, responded with a Second Amendment-affirming statement. “America loves our Second Amendment, but gun violence continues to be a tragic problem. Do you support a ban on military-style assault weapons?” the moderator asked.
“I don’t, but I think it’s because we need to increase education. We have to go back there,” Dial said. “If we teach people the right way to use guns, then we will reduce the risk of having gun-related accidents. It starts with education.”
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The Financial Bubble Is About To Burst Which Will Signal The Economic Collapse

from X22 Report:

A Closer Look at the Eric Holder “Doctrine” and the $1.87 Billion CDS Settlement

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens, Wall Street on Parade:
Two key legal events occurred last week and were reported as separate news items when, in fact, they are highly correlated.
First, the U.S. Justice Department’s Deputy Attorney General, Sally Quillian Yates, released a memo on Wednesday effectively reversing former Attorney General Eric Holder’s standard operating procedure of big money settlements on Wall Street with no individuals being charged. Yates launched the new think in a speech the next day at NYU’s School of Law – not exactly the most auspicious of venues for setting a higher moral tone.
Yates lost much of her credibility in the first five minutes of her talk. First she told the audience that was packed with Wall Street’s white collar defense attorneys that in “the few years since its launch, the Program on Corporate Compliance and Enforcement has made its mark here in New York.”
pictured: Sally Quillian Yates, Deputy Attorney General, U.S. Department of Justice
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Has the Israel Lobby Captured Political Parties and News Media?

Washington is Israeli occupied territory.
from 911TVorg:

Important news you probably missed: National Summit to Reassess the U.S. – Israel Special Relationship. National Press Club, Washington, DC, March 7, 2014


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